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phaster
Participant[quote=NeetaT]Hey Guys,
I remember getting the most recent November ballot in the mail and voting in vain against all new taxes and bonds. I want to vote in vain again in March 2020. Am I supposed to get the March 2020 ballot in the mail?
Thanks![/quote]
ya I hear ya about a vote in vain,…
one thing that ticks me off the public pension debt bomb,… there was a front page story on the front page of the UT the other day reporting the simple to understand fact that the taxpayer debt obligation just passed three billion
BUT what was missing was the back story showing this is a self inflicted problem caused by no talent ass clowns!!!!!!!!!
Participant“Mo Debt Mo Problems (eventually)”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUhRKVIjJtw
[quote]
Global debt shattering records: IIF
JANUARY 13, 2020LONDON (Reuters) – Global debt is expected to climb to a new all-time high of more than $257 trillion in the coming months, the Institute of International Finance estimated on Monday, adding there was no sign of it retreating either.
The amount works out at around $32,500 for each of the 7.7 billion people on planet and more than 3.2 times the world’s annual economic output, but the staggering numbers don’t stop there.
Total debt across the household, government, financial and non-financial corporate sectors surged by some $9 trillion in the first three quarters of 2019 alone.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-debt-iif/global-debt-shattering-records-iif-idUSKBN1ZC1VQ
[/quote]…local government is doing its part (to build up debt)
[quote]
San Diego pension debt climbs past $3B for first timeThe climb past $3 billion continues a long and steady series of increases for the pension debt, which was $1.2 billion in 2007.
The larger debt has spiked the city’s annual pension payments in recent years by about $100 million — going from $250 million a year to $350 million a year — and limiting how much the city can spend of its $1.5 billion annual budget on parks, libraries and other amenities.
The larger debt will force the city to make an annual pension payment this June of $365.6 million this year. That’s a $15 million increase over what the city paid last year and $11 million more than was previously projected by the city’s actuary.
The city’s pension board said Friday that while the size of the debt is a significant concern, nearly all of the sharp increases in recent years have been the result of the board taking a more realistic and responsible approach to estimating its debt.
…Board member George Kenney said it’s disappointing when people express shock at the size of the debt number without knowing the context.
“The unfunded liability is self-inflicted and I think people need to get that,” he said. “It’s discipline.”
[img_assist|nid=26933|title=The recipe for disaster (increasing global debt and climate change)|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=320|height=400]
Participant[quote=flu]I wonder how bad is it for those also gambled on those ultra short 3x S&P 500 or Dow ETFs….OUCH![/quote]
the expression,… “a fool and his money are soon parted,…” comes to mind
having mentioned that old saying FWIW IMHO,… ultra short 3x S&P 500 or Dow ETFs might be useful in the next downturn if one is lucky enuf to think up the right strategic “betting” mechanism and does not have a trading desk chair where the big boys play,… by which I mean the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (a.k.a. ISDA) which was established in 1985 by those in the privately negotiated, over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives market,… FYI back before the subprime crash 2007/2008 Credit Default Swaps (i.e. “insurance” on MBS [i.e. “bonds” w/ out reserve funds for payouts]) were offered by banks only to ISDA license holding funds,… IOW those that have 1.5 billion + investments
Participant[quote=flu]a lot of short sellers got totally buttfked this year.
[/quote]As Keynes said in the 1930s: “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
basically an investor can be right that a market or sector is overvalued but wrong on the timing
Participant[quote=burghMan]Is ‘melt up’ the new euphemism for bubble?
Why Wall Street sees the stock market on the verge of a ‘melt-up’
perhaps a better way of looking at the issue is to ask the question what is the “investment” alternative (given the big picture)
…when I mention big picture I’m thinking about over all debt level, what is the demographic trends, what are politicians thinking, what is the press reporting, etc.
WRT debt,…
[quote]
Record high global debt of $250 trillion ‘could curb efforts to tackle climate risk,’ report warnsThe global debt ballooned to a record high of more than $250 trillion and shows no sign of slowing down, according to a new report from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), which warned that this massive debt could impact international efforts to mitigate climate change.
Worldwide debt surged by $7.5 trillion in the first half of 2019, urging researchers to predict that the global debt would exceed $255 trillion by the end of the year.
…The bulk of the global debt – or more than 60% – is from the U.S. and China, the report released on Thursday found.
…Hidden debt and other “poorly understood contingent liabilities” can create additional uncertainty, the report said, “and could leave some sovereigns struggling to source international and domestic capital – including to combat climate change.”
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/record-high-global-debt-250-trillion-curb-efforts/story?id=67042801
[/quote]so then the question becomes where does an investor put their savings,…
[quote]
Bond World Is Backing Away From All That Negativity as 2019 EndsIt’s been the year that turned bond-market logic on its head, yet 2019 is ending with some hope that the worst of the negative-yield drama is over.
The global stock of debt with sub-zero yields has fallen to $11 trillion, the least since June, as a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions brightens the world economic outlook. Earlier this year, a third of all investment-grade bonds—$17 trillion—had rates below 0%, meaning that buyers holding the securities to maturity are guaranteed to make a loss.
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/negative-yield-bonds/
[/quote]since this this forum got its start looking at RE, what ya all might find interesting is my own take on the local market
basically because of various RE holdings, I am on the short list of individuals here in town that gets pitched rentals, so what I hear is hey I’ve got a deal for you about apts in north park, bankers hill, city heights, etc.
to get a feel for the market I play along and ask questions to evaluate the deal,… long story short all too often seems like sub-prime deja vu, in that older rental stock is being flipped and the financing in place (to put the makeup on a pig-sty of a property) is short term bridge loans,… so have to conclude the trend of the past few years of ever increasing prices for rentals is unsustainable!!!
Apartment Rents Fall in Seattle, Southern California, New York, Oakland, San Jose, Chicago, Honolulu
…looking at the big three investment classes (i.e. RE vs BONDS vs EQUITIES) the only alternative is EQUITIES because it has a low barrier to entry (meaning ya don’t have to have a large pool of money needed to buy in, like ya do w/ RE) and has some chance of yield/upside return (unlike bonds),… AND given the economic idea of supply and demand, the giant pool of money out in the world today is trying to purchase a smaller supply of “stock”
IOW looking at the number of companies listed on stock market back in 1999 vs today is lower,…
https://money.cnn.com/2015/07/09/investing/stock-market-shrinking/
AND the number of outstanding shares in various corporations is declining due to share buy backs
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/08/the-stock-buyback-swindle/592774/
BOTTOM LINE it should not be news to anyone who claims to be an investor, that prices of equities is increasing (i.e. a ‘melt up’)
December 1, 2019 at 7:36 AM in reply to: OT: Details of the Tesla Motor’s WhiteStar sedan emerges. #814097Participant[quote=PCinSD][img_assist|nid=26906|title=|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=959|height=459][/quote]
given the media buzz,… went to youtube to watch the tesla truck reveal
first thing that came to my mind was an old simpsons episode
Homer Creates the Ultimate American Car
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHGczDHTDpoParticipant[quote=burghMan]
…what I’m asking is a market timing question, which is something I know the “experts” say we should never try to do, but I cannot help but try and do it anyway. It seems to me like buying stocks today is much like buying real estate in 2002 or so. Not insanely expensive, but certainly expensive by historic data. Which means a big decline is a real possibility and upside is limited.
[/quote]as I read the tea leaves (to try and get the big picture) the market is going up because there is a giant pool of money, pushing up prices
[quote]
Public Pension Plans Continue to Shift Into U.S. Stocks
Nov. 5, 2019As the bull market enters its 11th year, state and local pension plans are piling on risk, as they try to make up shortfalls.
…State and local pension plans have about $4.4 trillion in assets, according to the Federal Reserve, $4.2 trillion less than the value of promised future benefits.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/public-pension-plans-continue-to-shift-into-u-s-stocks-11572955200
[/quote]BUT as they say what goes up,… eventually must come down
a story in the back pages of the newspaper caught my eye about the CA state auditor raising a red flag about the fiscal health of this city
[quote]
AUDIT: SAN DIEGO’S FISCAL HEALTHSan Diego is the most fiscally troubled city in San Diego County, according to the California State Auditor.
…That poor ranking appears to be driven by the city’s large amount of long term debt, more than $3.3 billion, and its failure to set aside adequate funding to meet the demands of its pension and other post-employment benefit obligations, according to the dashboard.
San Diego also received the worst rating when came to the amount it has set aside in its financial reserves, an issue the auditor specifically highlighted during her press conference.
“The city of San Diego really only has a couple of months of reserves set aside,” said Howle. “This should be a warning flag for city officials and the city of San Diego, that this is an area officials need to focus on.”
this is related to a front page story that appeared in the UT (where I noticed the UT watchdog missed a few key facts)
http://www.TinyURL.com/13thCheck
basically looking at the issue as an investor
http://www.TinyURL.com/InvestorWarning
at some point because of all the debt obligation(s) not just here in this city
[quote]
PBGC Projections: Multiemployer Program Insolvent in FY 2025
May 31, 2018WASHINGTON – The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation’s Multiemployer Insurance Program continues to face insolvency by the end of fiscal year 2025, according to findings in the FY 2017 Projections Report. The agency’s insurance program for multiemployer pension plans covers over 10 million people.
The new projections show a narrower range of years for the likely date of insolvency of the Multiemployer Program. The likelihood that the Multiemployer Program will run out of money before the end of FY 2025 has grown to over 90 percent, and there remains a significant chance the program will run out of money during FY 2024. The likelihood the program will remain solvent after FY 2026 is now less than 1 percent.
http://www.pbgc.gov/news/press/releases/pr18-02
[/quote]pretty certain there will be lots more people forced to be between a rock and a hard place because politicians have no financial sense AND the courts don’t want to address “the California rule” (which legally implies the taxpayer is the financial backstop for mismanaged pension debt obligations???)
[quote]
Calif. High Court Avoids the ‘California Rule’ in Pension Benefits Change Decision
March 22, 2019In its much-anticipated ruling in Cal Fire Local 2881 v. California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the California Supreme Court avoided opining on the long-standing pension rule, known as the “California Rule,” which is a state court interpretation of constitutional law that prohibits reduction of pension benefits unless they are offset by comparable new benefits.
doing a little more digging, seems all is not right in the SFR housing market,… ever hear of “shadow inventory” held by big financial institutions? using a “special purpose entity” seems its possible to keep assets off balance sheet,… this is useful because it makes the financial position of big financial institutions, look better than it really is
[quote]
Why the 2008 Housing Crisis Recovery Is Just an Illusion (w/ Keith Jurow, MarketWatch RealEstate)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFkkN2M3Y3c
[/quote]and some of the smart money players who noticed things were not kosher in w/ subprime loans and made smart bets against derivatives,… are at it again
[quote]
Citing climate risk, investors bet against mortgage marketNEW YORK (Reuters) – David Burt helped two of the protagonists of Michael Lewis’ book The Big Short bet against the U.S. mortgage market in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis. Now he’s betting against the market again, but this time, the risk is not from underwater subprime mortgages, it’s from homes sinking under water.
As he did then, Burt has given up his full-time job to make that bet. He left his role as a portfolio manager at the $1 trillion Wellington Management last year to start an investment firm, DeltaTerra Capital, which aims to help clients manage climate risk, and, where possible, take advantage of ways the market has not yet priced in that risk. His first investment strategy is targeting residential mortgage-backed securities, or RMBS, with exposure to climate hot spots like Texas and Florida.
In doing so, Burt is joining the ranks of a small number of investors who have become worried that climate risk is underpriced in these securities, which are pools of home loans sold to investors.
“The market’s failure to integrate climate science with investment analysis has created a mispricing phenomenon that is possibly larger than the mortgage credit bubble of the mid-2000s,”
if you want to know what kind individual one is up against (and is anecdotal evidence why it seems we are headed for eventual market turbulence),… this kinda guy (using NSFW “language”) is basically the archetypal character type that sees no problem w/ the mortgage market says banks understand managing risk,…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjlC02NsIt0&t=3m15s
[quote=burghMan]
…How long can the bull market go on?
[/quote]in general people find good news more credible than bad news,… so this human nature (i.e. psychology) will drive the market forward up until the point various market players have a sudden loss of confidence in the system
so the trick w/ timing IMHO is keep one eye on the fundamental valuations and the other eye on the mindset of the other various market players,… IOW when fundamental valuations suck and when various market players have a sudden loss of confidence in the system, that is when we have a big crash like in 1929 and 2007/2008
Participantpiggington is useful to check in every once in awhile,… because its a local glimpse of what other people are thinking about RE, investing and politics
Participant[quote=scaredyclassic]why should i even have to think about putting socks together?
…this sock chaos, it’s another example of the perils of too much choice. Basically we have every conceivable sock, but that traps us in sock hell. I blame capitalism.[/quote]
seems the solution/marketplace is ready for a clog permanently affixed to a sock???
[quote]
http://fashionista.com/2018/05/sock-crocs-alife-streetwear-collection
[/quote][quote]
Our production designer [Darren Gilford] had everyone wearing Crocs in the movie. We didn’t even know what they were. Mike was like, ‘You’d have to be an idiot to wear these!’ By the time the movie came out, everyone was wearing them.”
http://mentalfloss.com/article/85160/10-smart-facts-about-idiocracy
[/quote]October 13, 2019 at 1:19 PM in reply to: interest rates in the USA v other advanced economies #813744Participant[quote=gzz]Phaster the PBGC is not economically significant. It pays reduced pensions to old industrials whose defined benefit pension plans went bust. It will likely be bailed out if it becomes insolvent, but it won’t be that much money.
While not a good thing if a bunch of 85 year old widows of steelworkers see their pension cut another 15%, it just won’t have any larger effect.
Arguably it wouldn’t even be unfair. A lot of these plans agreed to benefits when inflation was high, and it was expected by everyone that inflation would reduce the obligations more than actually happened. So some of these old pensions would, as a worst case, just be reduced to the expected real value.[/quote]
this past another big corporate “old industrial” pension domino falls
GE’s pension freeze puts a spotlight on America’s retirement planning problem
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pensions-ge-401-k-retirement-decline-161154581.htmlwhich puts pressure on the PBGC,…serendipity (not in a good way)
FWIW actually parts of GE are pretty far from being “old industrial”
Participant[quote=flu][quote=Hobie]I’ve been using these guys for years. Local as in LA and they stock all the bits.
A TDS (total dissolved solids)tester is handy to tell when the membrane needs to be replaced.
Remember, in a RO system the membrane does the heavy lifting. The first two filters help scrub chlorine and solids to help extend the life of the membrane. Filters after the membrane are to polish the water for taste. Including adding an alkaline minerals, if you wish.
(now you can make your own Kangen water!. those who don’t know Kangen is a >$4,000 machine to make alkaline water. sold through multilevel marketing pitches)
The UV light is not necessary for city water, maybe well water. IMHO[/quote]
speaking of Kangen water and those $4000 systems. I was over at someone’s house that bought one recently. Claims the water is really good. I didn’t have the heart to say it, but I’m sorry, it still tasted like tap water. Unlike the $100 RO system that seems to do a pretty good job making tap tastes more like drinking water.[/quote]
Bottled Water episode – Penn & Teller Shotime Show “Bullshit”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIJEw5aDzOo&t=1m11sOctober 6, 2019 at 12:13 PM in reply to: interest rates in the USA v other advanced economies #813716Participant[quote=gzz]Phaster the PBGC is not economically significant. It pays reduced pensions to old industrials whose defined benefit pension plans went bust. It will likely be bailed out if it becomes insolvent, but it won’t be that much money.[/quote]
unto itself the failure of PBGC might not be economically significant,… BUT what I am pondering is something akin to the expression “death by a thousand cuts”
IOW let’s first consider a failure of PBGC,… 10 million workers who bitch to politicians they are screwed, are going to demand taxpayers make them whole
now let’s look at the city of SD,…
http://www.TinyURL.com/13thcheck
here we have another issue which it is assumed local taxpayers are the financial backstop (i.e. the california rule),… AND these two potential failures are only first order taxpayer burden effects,… what of all the various negative feed backs if/when the economic house of cards falls???
speaking of a potential house of cards
[quote]
Repo glitches expose flaws in Fed’s approachCentral bank might have acted more quickly if the repo market were its primary target
Overnight repo rates — the interest rate paid to borrow cash in exchange for Treasuries for just 24 hours — began rising on Monday, September 16. But it was not until after 9am the next day that the New York Fed, which is responsible for implementing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, stepped in to try to ease the strain.
According to John Williams, president of the New York Fed, the announcement was timed to coincide with the release of data showing a rise in the effective federal funds rate. That makes the mandate for intervention clear.
…But the Fed’s sortie into the repo market — since repeated several times — has stirred conversations about whether policymakers are focused on the right short-term rate. Fed funds was once the driving force of cash markets. Now it is a back-seat passenger and repo is at the wheel.
…fed funds is hardly representative of the dynamics affecting short-term lending markets. As was seen in September, its basic function — to track the Fed’s target rate — has broken down, because it is now susceptible to movements in other rates such as repo rather than driving them.
…Since the Fed has started reversing QE, reserves have fallen and some — but not all — players have consequently run short of cash again. Such shortages are threatening the ability of the Fed to maintain control of the effective fed funds rate
http://www.ft.com/content/d2cd761a-e64d-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc
[/quote]in related news,…
[quote]
Fed to Keep Pumping Liquidity Into Repo Market Through October
By Alex HarrisOctober 4, 2019, 11:02 AM PDT Updated on October 4, 2019, 11:37 AM PDT
…The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Friday that it will conduct operations for overnight repurchase agreements through Nov. 4, having previously only scheduled them through Oct. 10. The central bank also announced eight new term offerings to provide additional funding through this month.
…These measures are officially aimed at keeping the fed funds rate within the central bank’s target range. While those measures did bring the market more in line with this, there was a brief move upward in repo rates at the end of September as participants fulfilled quarter-end funding needs.
just saying w/ all the various issues not being directly addressed or well understood by those at the controls, I think we’re going to see a yuge example of murphy’s law in action
October 5, 2019 at 8:41 AM in reply to: interest rates in the USA v other advanced economies #813713Participant[quote=gzz]Best of both worlds[/quote]
calm before the storm???
had an invite the other day to hear what one of the NY fed officials had to say,…
John Williams
President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Vice Chairman, FOMC (@ucsd)FWIW at the table I sat at,… sensed there was not such a warm and fuzzy feeling given recent news and the discussion of the inverted yield curve and unexpected spike of the Repo rate
looking at the bigger picture there is the ever growing unsustainable off balance sheet debt which is fractal in nature,… meaning debt obligations are happening at the local level
http://www.TinyURL.com/13thcheck
as well as at the state AND national levels
http://www.TinyURL.com/InvestorWarning
so while the nation is being distracted w/ various political POTUS shenanigans,… there is a storm brewing on the horizon that few are paying attention to
[quote]
PBGC Projections: Multiemployer Program Insolvent in FY 2025
May 31, 2018WASHINGTON – The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation’s Multiemployer Insurance Program continues to face insolvency by the end of fiscal year 2025, according to findings in the FY 2017 Projections Report. The agency’s insurance program for multiemployer pension plans covers over 10 million people.
The new projections show a narrower range of years for the likely date of insolvency of the Multiemployer Program. The likelihood that the Multiemployer Program will run out of money before the end of FY 2025 has grown to over 90 percent, and there remains a significant chance the program will run out of money during FY 2024. The likelihood the program will remain solvent after FY 2026 is now less than 1 percent.
September 29, 2019 at 11:19 AM in reply to: interest rates in the USA v other advanced economies #813688Participant99.99% sure its not a missed sign or nothing at all
not too many are aware that,..
[quote]
Eurodollars are time deposits denominated in U.S. dollars at banks outside the United States, and thus are not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much less regulation than similar deposits within the U.S. The term was originally coined for U.S. dollars in European banks, but it expanded over the years to its present definition.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar
[/quote]it is assumed that the fed controls the money supply, BUT this only applies w/ in the USA,… so WHAT IF shadow banks outside of the USA w/ little or no regulation, initiated loans,… in other words created their own supply of “digital” Eurodollars?!
it would be akin to the left hand not knowing what the right hand of the same financial institution is doing,… if you think this isn’t possible then consider the story of various divisions of Deutsche Bank loaning money to POTUS
http://www.npr.org/2019/05/22/725893104/episode-914-trump-and-deutsche-a-long-affair
considering the bigger picture of an over all increase of the money supply due to unregulated Eurodollars over the years,… since money seeks its best return I don’t think it is too hard to imagine that off shore money eventually finds its way into the RE as well as stock market (which would bid up prices)
I’m just a basic science knucklehead that has never taken a formal economics or finance class,… but all my math background tells me at some point the figures on the balance sheet,… don’t balance
AND the only reason it seems there has not been a problem thus far is because the dollar is the international medium-of-exchange/store-of-value/unit-of-account
http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1011/how-the-triffin-dilemma-affects-currencies.aspx
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