What Piggington has done for me

[sdduuuude]

[quote=rent4now]Rich gave me the cajones and data to sell my house in 2005 8 short months after I purchased it.[/quote]

Wow, Rich went out and got you some cajones !
Never bought me a damn thing.
Jeez

[jmpman]

1) This site kept me from buying in San Diego at the peak of the market.
2) Some guru advised that 2011/2012 would be the bottom of the market (back in 2008). 3) Another brilliant individual suggested that the best way to buy a foreclosure was to find the house you want, then approach the listing agent (when you don’t have a real estate agent) and ask them to represent you. They aren’t allowed, and will decline. You follow up with the question – Do you know someone who can represent me? Of course they do, and it’s likely their best friend.

I made at least $300k from the advice on here, and kept from losing an equal amount. Overall a major win. Thanks!

[barnaby33]

I gained a sense of purpose and derived meaning from being a contrarian. Think you Jeebus, I mean Rich!
Josh

[phaster]

piggington is useful to check in every once in awhile,… because its a local glimpse of what other people are thinking about RE, investing and politics

[EconProf]

I have seldom checked the Piggington site lately because it seemed too snarky and had the same tired old voices all the time. Also, frankly, because the RE cycle a decade ago was far more volatile and worth discussing, and Piggington was a rare voice of wisdom and sanity at a chaotic time. I’m glad to see some old-timers from long ago chime in here with their thanks to Rich.
I’ve made lots of hits and errors in RE over the decades, but am nicely ahead overall. Piggington didn’t so much help me on timing–where I made many mistakes, but helped explain why they happened.
My guess is that in the short run San Diego RE will do well, due to our low interest rates, low unemployment, and low inventory. Longer term, I fear a long overdue recession could really wallop CA and San Diego tax revenues and slam public services. The Trump economy and a stock market 4 times its level of a decade ago (according to the Dow Jones Averages) has brought a gusher of tax revenues to the highly progressive CA tax structure, and spending has ratcheted up accordingly. When combined with our insanely generous government pensions with their overly optimistic 7% rate of return expectations, the slightest stock market “reversion to the mean” will destroy CA finances and thus basic public services–prompting people to “vote with their feet”, leaving CA and hurting RE prices. All that is in the longer run, however. But remember, I am an economist–seldom right, but never in doubt!

[temeculaguy]

[quote=jmpman]1) This site kept me from buying in San Diego at the peak of the market.
2) Some guru advised that 2011/2012 would be the bottom of the market (back in 2008). 3) Another brilliant individual suggested that the best way to buy a foreclosure was to find the house you want, then approach the listing agent (when you don’t have a real estate agent) and ask them to represent you. They aren’t allowed, and will decline. You follow up with the question – Do you know someone who can represent me? Of course they do, and it’s likely their best friend.

I made at least $300k from the advice on here, and kept from losing an equal amount. Overall a major win. Thanks![/quote]

I think I might be partly responsible for #3, “brilliant individual” probably describes someone else.

I searched for that exact strategy, as it is how I came to own Che TG but all I found was this which is close but not what I remember

https://www.piggington.com/tg_closes_escrow#comment-101211

[temeculaguy]

Econ, so good to see you! As it was in yesteryear, your predictions are usually more accurate than you like to let on, thus the qualifiers. I’ve got two offspring with jobs and degrees and have been giving them contrarian advice to hold off on their first purchase until the next dip. Your insight has me more confident in that advice. Deja vue all over again, I remember your posts just before the last downturn. anecdotally, two of my step children have already voted with their feet, to Texas and Oklahoma. If this keeps up and I’m going to have to buy a motorhome to visit everyone, which hurts because I hate depreciating assets with high upkeep.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=EconProf]I have seldom checked the Piggington site lately because it seemed too snarky and had the same tired old voices all the time. Also, frankly, because the RE cycle a decade ago was far more volatile and worth discussing, and Piggington was a rare voice of wisdom and sanity at a chaotic time. I’m glad to see some old-timers from long ago chime in here with their thanks to Rich.
I’ve made lots of hits and errors in RE over the decades, but am nicely ahead overall. Piggington didn’t so much help me on timing–where I made many mistakes, but helped explain why they happened.
My guess is that in the short run San Diego RE will do well, due to our low interest rates, low unemployment, and low inventory. Longer term, I fear a long overdue recession could really wallop CA and San Diego tax revenues and slam public services. The Trump economy and a stock market 4 times its level of a decade ago (according to the Dow Jones Averages) has brought a gusher of tax revenues to the highly progressive CA tax structure, and spending has ratcheted up accordingly. When combined with our insanely generous government pensions with their overly optimistic 7% rate of return expectations, the slightest stock market “reversion to the mean” will destroy CA finances and thus basic public services–prompting people to “vote with their feet”, leaving CA and hurting RE prices. All that is in the longer run, however. But remember, I am an economist–seldom right, but never in doubt![/quote]

I do hope people do vote with feet like when the defense contractors laid off in the 1990s. I will buy more.

[FlyerInHi]

I hope you meant chez TG, and not Che TG; the latter would make you an AOC lover.

[EconProf]

Thanks Temeculaguy, you are too kind.
And I notice you also post less frequently here, which is a loss for all of us.

[temeculaguy]

As are you and thank you for the kind words. I have come back more lately because the kids are looking to buy and I do see some similarities today to 2005. It’s the “freshly minted teacher” test. Not sure who wrote it but I’ve always remembered it. When two freshly minted teachers get married and try to buy a starter home, if they cannot, then the market is due for a correction.

For those of you who are new, Econprof is an OG of the highest order. I was heavily influenced by the posters back then, Econ was one of those influences.

[burghMan]

[quote=temeculaguy]As are you and thank you for the kind words. I have come back more lately because the kids are looking to buy and I do see some similarities today to 2005. It’s the “freshly minted teacher” test. Not sure who wrote it but I’ve always remembered it. When two freshly minted teachers get married and try to buy a starter home, if they cannot, then the market is due for a correction.

For those of you who are new, Econprof is an OG of the highest order. I was heavily influenced by the posters back then, Econ was one of those influences.[/quote]

I think the “freshly minted teacher” test is rooted more in nostalgia than factual realities. There are plenty of counter examples. In the Bay Area the income of two young teachers has been inadequate to buy a starter home for decades. Of course the definition of starter home also changed. Maybe they can buy a condo, but not single family property with a yard. The trend in San Diego is similar.

Several years ago someone posted a news article here featuring a young woman from the Bay Area who was frustrated that she could not afford to buy a house “like the one she grew up in.” It was a good example of the “housing crisis” in California. Of course her problem is now there are many more people that want that house, many have relatively better incomes than their parents, and there are not proportionally more houses. Supply and demand.

There will be ups and downs but, in areas with population and economic growth, people are going to have to learn to expect less with each generation.

[temeculaguy]

“Do more, expect less” let’s just say I’m not going to guess you are in marketing or advertising. Sadly, your point is valid.

[saiine]

Awesome thread!

I haven’t posted in ages, but I still visit at least once a week.

Anyone here attend the meetup at my sisters restaurant back in the day? It was in Encinitas, at Today’s Pizza & Salad.

Anyways, other than providing great information and perspective on the SD real estate market, I can credit Piggington for helping me find my realtor (shouts to sdrealtor), and for friendships that continue to this day!

Rich, really appreciate the years of dedication my dude! We should have another meetup – for old times sake.

[Author]

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