[peterb]

In one of Rich Toscano’s posts he had a graph of median rental prices from the late 1980’s to the present. It looks like during the last realestate down cycle from about 1991 to 1996 that rental prices decreased by about 5% to 10%. But I dont know all the factors behind those numbers and how well they correlate to our present conditions…new homes built,net migration out of the county, recession, job loss, credit constriction, etc…..

[peterb]

In one of Rich Toscano’s posts he had a graph of median rental prices from the late 1980’s to the present. It looks like during the last realestate down cycle from about 1991 to 1996 that rental prices decreased by about 5% to 10%. But I dont know all the factors behind those numbers and how well they correlate to our present conditions…new homes built,net migration out of the county, recession, job loss, credit constriction, etc…..

[peterb]

In one of Rich Toscano’s posts he had a graph of median rental prices from the late 1980’s to the present. It looks like during the last realestate down cycle from about 1991 to 1996 that rental prices decreased by about 5% to 10%. But I dont know all the factors behind those numbers and how well they correlate to our present conditions…new homes built,net migration out of the county, recession, job loss, credit constriction, etc…..

[peterb]

In one of Rich Toscano’s posts he had a graph of median rental prices from the late 1980’s to the present. It looks like during the last realestate down cycle from about 1991 to 1996 that rental prices decreased by about 5% to 10%. But I dont know all the factors behind those numbers and how well they correlate to our present conditions…new homes built,net migration out of the county, recession, job loss, credit constriction, etc…..

[peterb]

In one of Rich Toscano’s posts he had a graph of median rental prices from the late 1980’s to the present. It looks like during the last realestate down cycle from about 1991 to 1996 that rental prices decreased by about 5% to 10%. But I dont know all the factors behind those numbers and how well they correlate to our present conditions…new homes built,net migration out of the county, recession, job loss, credit constriction, etc…..

[peterb]

It seems like there’s a lot of reference to previous business cycles. With the underlying assumption that this cycle will be very similar to the last couple of business cycles since the late 1970’s. There’s strong evidence that business cycles are dependable, given that similar dynamics exist through the various cycles. My main concern about this cycle is that we may not have similar dynamics.

There’s no doubt the Fed will create whatever amount of dollars needed and they’ve done this in the past. So that dynamic is the same. But what about the dynamics needed to begin an economic recovery? Will the rest of the world buy dollar denominated assets because they’re now cheaper? Will all the money on the side lines come in when prices stabilize after declining?

The Japanese put their rate at nearly 0 and they make things the world likes to buy and they still experienced a very protracted period of non-growth. I guess I’m wondering why we may experience anything different or worse?

Does anybody have any theory about how the US economy will recover once the cheap money kicks in?

[peterb]

It seems like there’s a lot of reference to previous business cycles. With the underlying assumption that this cycle will be very similar to the last couple of business cycles since the late 1970’s. There’s strong evidence that business cycles are dependable, given that similar dynamics exist through the various cycles. My main concern about this cycle is that we may not have similar dynamics.

There’s no doubt the Fed will create whatever amount of dollars needed and they’ve done this in the past. So that dynamic is the same. But what about the dynamics needed to begin an economic recovery? Will the rest of the world buy dollar denominated assets because they’re now cheaper? Will all the money on the side lines come in when prices stabilize after declining?

The Japanese put their rate at nearly 0 and they make things the world likes to buy and they still experienced a very protracted period of non-growth. I guess I’m wondering why we may experience anything different or worse?

Does anybody have any theory about how the US economy will recover once the cheap money kicks in?

[peterb]

It seems like there’s a lot of reference to previous business cycles. With the underlying assumption that this cycle will be very similar to the last couple of business cycles since the late 1970’s. There’s strong evidence that business cycles are dependable, given that similar dynamics exist through the various cycles. My main concern about this cycle is that we may not have similar dynamics.

There’s no doubt the Fed will create whatever amount of dollars needed and they’ve done this in the past. So that dynamic is the same. But what about the dynamics needed to begin an economic recovery? Will the rest of the world buy dollar denominated assets because they’re now cheaper? Will all the money on the side lines come in when prices stabilize after declining?

The Japanese put their rate at nearly 0 and they make things the world likes to buy and they still experienced a very protracted period of non-growth. I guess I’m wondering why we may experience anything different or worse?

Does anybody have any theory about how the US economy will recover once the cheap money kicks in?

[peterb]

It seems like there’s a lot of reference to previous business cycles. With the underlying assumption that this cycle will be very similar to the last couple of business cycles since the late 1970’s. There’s strong evidence that business cycles are dependable, given that similar dynamics exist through the various cycles. My main concern about this cycle is that we may not have similar dynamics.

There’s no doubt the Fed will create whatever amount of dollars needed and they’ve done this in the past. So that dynamic is the same. But what about the dynamics needed to begin an economic recovery? Will the rest of the world buy dollar denominated assets because they’re now cheaper? Will all the money on the side lines come in when prices stabilize after declining?

The Japanese put their rate at nearly 0 and they make things the world likes to buy and they still experienced a very protracted period of non-growth. I guess I’m wondering why we may experience anything different or worse?

Does anybody have any theory about how the US economy will recover once the cheap money kicks in?

[peterb]

It seems like there’s a lot of reference to previous business cycles. With the underlying assumption that this cycle will be very similar to the last couple of business cycles since the late 1970’s. There’s strong evidence that business cycles are dependable, given that similar dynamics exist through the various cycles. My main concern about this cycle is that we may not have similar dynamics.

There’s no doubt the Fed will create whatever amount of dollars needed and they’ve done this in the past. So that dynamic is the same. But what about the dynamics needed to begin an economic recovery? Will the rest of the world buy dollar denominated assets because they’re now cheaper? Will all the money on the side lines come in when prices stabilize after declining?

The Japanese put their rate at nearly 0 and they make things the world likes to buy and they still experienced a very protracted period of non-growth. I guess I’m wondering why we may experience anything different or worse?

Does anybody have any theory about how the US economy will recover once the cheap money kicks in?

[peterb]

If the current rate of foreclosures in SD county (1400/month) with most becoming REO’s continues, I would think that there better be a lot of buyers comming into the market to flatten out the price decline. And of course all the short sales that are popping up everywhere have to be absorbed as well.

[peterb]

If the current rate of foreclosures in SD county (1400/month) with most becoming REO’s continues, I would think that there better be a lot of buyers comming into the market to flatten out the price decline. And of course all the short sales that are popping up everywhere have to be absorbed as well.

[peterb]

If the current rate of foreclosures in SD county (1400/month) with most becoming REO’s continues, I would think that there better be a lot of buyers comming into the market to flatten out the price decline. And of course all the short sales that are popping up everywhere have to be absorbed as well.

[peterb]

If the current rate of foreclosures in SD county (1400/month) with most becoming REO’s continues, I would think that there better be a lot of buyers comming into the market to flatten out the price decline. And of course all the short sales that are popping up everywhere have to be absorbed as well.

[peterb]

If the current rate of foreclosures in SD county (1400/month) with most becoming REO’s continues, I would think that there better be a lot of buyers comming into the market to flatten out the price decline. And of course all the short sales that are popping up everywhere have to be absorbed as well.

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