Investors as Price Support (Temecula Example)

[Baron von Rothschild]

Based on some other Piggington threads, it appears that Temecula prices have crashed to where investors are buying single family homes to rent. Those other threads note that the rental supply has now surged, so it is my hypothesis that rents must also crash which will take away the investors as buyers for the big supply of foreclosures in the pipeline. So, now that the initial wave of investors is being burned, who’s going to step in to buy? Are we on the cusp of another big step down in pricing?

[NotCranky]

“so it is my hypothesis that rents must also crash which will take away the investors ”

What does or will the rent crash look like?
5%,10% 25% or more?

How long will it last? 3 years,5 years or forever?

Is a “rent crash” going to happen in other places in the county to the same extent as it is, or might in Temecula?

What is the historical context?

How will it affect properties where renters can have horses?(inside joke)

My guess is that investors will ponder these things.
I would like to hear some pigg opinions. Good Topic.

[peterb]

In one of Rich Toscano’s posts he had a graph of median rental prices from the late 1980’s to the present. It looks like during the last realestate down cycle from about 1991 to 1996 that rental prices decreased by about 5% to 10%. But I dont know all the factors behind those numbers and how well they correlate to our present conditions…new homes built,net migration out of the county, recession, job loss, credit constriction, etc…..

[peterb]

In one of Rich Toscano’s posts he had a graph of median rental prices from the late 1980’s to the present. It looks like during the last realestate down cycle from about 1991 to 1996 that rental prices decreased by about 5% to 10%. But I dont know all the factors behind those numbers and how well they correlate to our present conditions…new homes built,net migration out of the county, recession, job loss, credit constriction, etc…..

[peterb]

In one of Rich Toscano’s posts he had a graph of median rental prices from the late 1980’s to the present. It looks like during the last realestate down cycle from about 1991 to 1996 that rental prices decreased by about 5% to 10%. But I dont know all the factors behind those numbers and how well they correlate to our present conditions…new homes built,net migration out of the county, recession, job loss, credit constriction, etc…..

[peterb]

In one of Rich Toscano’s posts he had a graph of median rental prices from the late 1980’s to the present. It looks like during the last realestate down cycle from about 1991 to 1996 that rental prices decreased by about 5% to 10%. But I dont know all the factors behind those numbers and how well they correlate to our present conditions…new homes built,net migration out of the county, recession, job loss, credit constriction, etc…..

[peterb]

In one of Rich Toscano’s posts he had a graph of median rental prices from the late 1980’s to the present. It looks like during the last realestate down cycle from about 1991 to 1996 that rental prices decreased by about 5% to 10%. But I dont know all the factors behind those numbers and how well they correlate to our present conditions…new homes built,net migration out of the county, recession, job loss, credit constriction, etc…..

[NotCranky]

“so it is my hypothesis that rents must also crash which will take away the investors ”

What does or will the rent crash look like?
5%,10% 25% or more?

How long will it last? 3 years,5 years or forever?

Is a “rent crash” going to happen in other places in the county to the same extent as it is, or might in Temecula?

What is the historical context?

How will it affect properties where renters can have horses?(inside joke)

My guess is that investors will ponder these things.
I would like to hear some pigg opinions. Good Topic.

[NotCranky]

“so it is my hypothesis that rents must also crash which will take away the investors ”

What does or will the rent crash look like?
5%,10% 25% or more?

How long will it last? 3 years,5 years or forever?

Is a “rent crash” going to happen in other places in the county to the same extent as it is, or might in Temecula?

What is the historical context?

How will it affect properties where renters can have horses?(inside joke)

My guess is that investors will ponder these things.
I would like to hear some pigg opinions. Good Topic.

[NotCranky]

“so it is my hypothesis that rents must also crash which will take away the investors ”

What does or will the rent crash look like?
5%,10% 25% or more?

How long will it last? 3 years,5 years or forever?

Is a “rent crash” going to happen in other places in the county to the same extent as it is, or might in Temecula?

What is the historical context?

How will it affect properties where renters can have horses?(inside joke)

My guess is that investors will ponder these things.
I would like to hear some pigg opinions. Good Topic.

[NotCranky]

“so it is my hypothesis that rents must also crash which will take away the investors ”

What does or will the rent crash look like?
5%,10% 25% or more?

How long will it last? 3 years,5 years or forever?

Is a “rent crash” going to happen in other places in the county to the same extent as it is, or might in Temecula?

What is the historical context?

How will it affect properties where renters can have horses?(inside joke)

My guess is that investors will ponder these things.
I would like to hear some pigg opinions. Good Topic.

[hipmatt]

Great proposal Baron and Rustico. I will agree that the not so prudent investors are buying up some of these REOs at these currently discounted prices(but not even close to bottom prices). I also agree that rental supply has surged up here as well. The market is quite loose up here, in other words there are many vacant homes, either for sale or for rent. I further agree that rents must retreat, as they are currently IMHO.

I have seen 3/2 bed homes for rent in Temecula for around 1500. It seemed that 2 years ago, there wasn’t any homes to rent for under 1600.

Another reason is that so many employed up here were in construction or real estate related fields that have now nearly come to a halt. There are only so many big box stores, diners, car dealers, or school district jobs that one can apply for, and all of these employers are letting go as well due to the beginning of the recession. I say recession because you can debate whether the US is in a recession, but there is really no debate that CA, and especially the bubble areas are in a recession.

I also agree that the initial phase of investors is being burned, and that there is a good chance that some of the homes closing escrow of late will be back on the auction block or MLS in a year or so. I still hear of people buying with less that 20% down, and I guess fha and va are popular.

Yes, we are on the cusp of another big step down in pricing, this I am nearly certain, but I agree with others like TG that we are experiencing a “suckers rally” or a bear market rally which is normal and to be expected. It may last until mid summer, or so. Prices aren’t rising or anything, but there are those who can’t resist pulling the trigger. Not to mention people still have the “Donald Trump Syndrome” where they think that owning homes = millionaire in the making. But there is a whole slew of supply that will hit the market in 3 to 6 months.

I look at it this way: The housing bubble allowed thousands of homes to be built for thousands of people who shouldn’t have been buyers(fbs, subprimers). Many of these people were questionable renters at best. But since they had a pulse, they bought a home. The homes that they bought with money that didn’t exist, not only drove home values up in a violent, and volatile manner, it also created thousands of jobs, from construction to RE, to landscape, etc. I mean, construction and RE in the IE is like casinos and gambling in Las Vegas. Now that we are seeing that these people foreclose, sell short, etc, we are left with a bunch of homes that don’t have enough qualified buyer. Buyers now either left the area, can’t qualify, have damaged credit now, or have lost their bubble jobs too. Point is that many investors aren’t thinking this out. As someone investing in rentals in Temecula, you need to consider home price depreciation, recessionary effects of the locals to pay rent, and possible increase in vacancy rates.

ok.. enough for now.

[temeculaguy]

I toured some of the redc auction houses today, not much of a crowd and no “investor types” were spotted. People that migrated here that are getting forclosed on will leave the area and rents will go down because people will not commute in the same numbers to rent as those who will commute to buy. Renters live closer to work than owners for the most part. Stay out of the sucker rally and matt is right, it will be with us through most of the summer, when S.D. and O.C. start taking serious hits later this year and $4 gas starts becoming the norm, the exhurbs are gonna get nailed because of migration back to the cities.

[sdnerd]

“the exhurbs are gonna get nailed because of migration back to the cities.”

Quote for truth.

On the flip side, this is going to help bolster if not increase rents in the job hub areas.

Aside from wine country; one of the biggest appeals to those areas was the cost. Gas is no longer $1/gal, and the housing bubble madness is no more.

If you commute 1-3 hours to work & back each day, and spend $30/day in gas that’s ~$600/mo. Find an equal property in MM, and do some math. Why rent in Temecula if you work here, if it’s no longer a less expensive equation?

Gas is increasing, housing bubble is deflating – rents in those outlying areas are definitely going to be coming down IMHO.

[sdnerd]

“the exhurbs are gonna get nailed because of migration back to the cities.”

Quote for truth.

On the flip side, this is going to help bolster if not increase rents in the job hub areas.

Aside from wine country; one of the biggest appeals to those areas was the cost. Gas is no longer $1/gal, and the housing bubble madness is no more.

If you commute 1-3 hours to work & back each day, and spend $30/day in gas that’s ~$600/mo. Find an equal property in MM, and do some math. Why rent in Temecula if you work here, if it’s no longer a less expensive equation?

Gas is increasing, housing bubble is deflating – rents in those outlying areas are definitely going to be coming down IMHO.

[sdnerd]

“the exhurbs are gonna get nailed because of migration back to the cities.”

Quote for truth.

On the flip side, this is going to help bolster if not increase rents in the job hub areas.

Aside from wine country; one of the biggest appeals to those areas was the cost. Gas is no longer $1/gal, and the housing bubble madness is no more.

If you commute 1-3 hours to work & back each day, and spend $30/day in gas that’s ~$600/mo. Find an equal property in MM, and do some math. Why rent in Temecula if you work here, if it’s no longer a less expensive equation?

Gas is increasing, housing bubble is deflating – rents in those outlying areas are definitely going to be coming down IMHO.

[sdnerd]

“the exhurbs are gonna get nailed because of migration back to the cities.”

Quote for truth.

On the flip side, this is going to help bolster if not increase rents in the job hub areas.

Aside from wine country; one of the biggest appeals to those areas was the cost. Gas is no longer $1/gal, and the housing bubble madness is no more.

If you commute 1-3 hours to work & back each day, and spend $30/day in gas that’s ~$600/mo. Find an equal property in MM, and do some math. Why rent in Temecula if you work here, if it’s no longer a less expensive equation?

Gas is increasing, housing bubble is deflating – rents in those outlying areas are definitely going to be coming down IMHO.

[sdnerd]

“the exhurbs are gonna get nailed because of migration back to the cities.”

Quote for truth.

On the flip side, this is going to help bolster if not increase rents in the job hub areas.

Aside from wine country; one of the biggest appeals to those areas was the cost. Gas is no longer $1/gal, and the housing bubble madness is no more.

If you commute 1-3 hours to work & back each day, and spend $30/day in gas that’s ~$600/mo. Find an equal property in MM, and do some math. Why rent in Temecula if you work here, if it’s no longer a less expensive equation?

Gas is increasing, housing bubble is deflating – rents in those outlying areas are definitely going to be coming down IMHO.

[sdnerd]

“the exhurbs are gonna get nailed because of migration back to the cities.”

Quote for truth.

On the flip side, this is going to help bolster if not increase rents in the job hub areas.

Aside from wine country; one of the biggest appeals to those areas was the cost. Gas is no longer $1/gal, and the housing bubble madness is no more.

If you commute 1-3 hours to work & back each day, and spend $30/day in gas that’s ~$600/mo. Find an equal property in MM, and do some math. Why rent in Temecula if you work here, if it’s no longer a less expensive equation?

Gas is increasing, housing bubble is deflating – rents in those outlying areas are definitely going to be coming down IMHO.

[temeculaguy]

I toured some of the redc auction houses today, not much of a crowd and no “investor types” were spotted. People that migrated here that are getting forclosed on will leave the area and rents will go down because people will not commute in the same numbers to rent as those who will commute to buy. Renters live closer to work than owners for the most part. Stay out of the sucker rally and matt is right, it will be with us through most of the summer, when S.D. and O.C. start taking serious hits later this year and $4 gas starts becoming the norm, the exhurbs are gonna get nailed because of migration back to the cities.

[temeculaguy]

I toured some of the redc auction houses today, not much of a crowd and no “investor types” were spotted. People that migrated here that are getting forclosed on will leave the area and rents will go down because people will not commute in the same numbers to rent as those who will commute to buy. Renters live closer to work than owners for the most part. Stay out of the sucker rally and matt is right, it will be with us through most of the summer, when S.D. and O.C. start taking serious hits later this year and $4 gas starts becoming the norm, the exhurbs are gonna get nailed because of migration back to the cities.

[temeculaguy]

I toured some of the redc auction houses today, not much of a crowd and no “investor types” were spotted. People that migrated here that are getting forclosed on will leave the area and rents will go down because people will not commute in the same numbers to rent as those who will commute to buy. Renters live closer to work than owners for the most part. Stay out of the sucker rally and matt is right, it will be with us through most of the summer, when S.D. and O.C. start taking serious hits later this year and $4 gas starts becoming the norm, the exhurbs are gonna get nailed because of migration back to the cities.

[temeculaguy]

I toured some of the redc auction houses today, not much of a crowd and no “investor types” were spotted. People that migrated here that are getting forclosed on will leave the area and rents will go down because people will not commute in the same numbers to rent as those who will commute to buy. Renters live closer to work than owners for the most part. Stay out of the sucker rally and matt is right, it will be with us through most of the summer, when S.D. and O.C. start taking serious hits later this year and $4 gas starts becoming the norm, the exhurbs are gonna get nailed because of migration back to the cities.

[hipmatt]

Great proposal Baron and Rustico. I will agree that the not so prudent investors are buying up some of these REOs at these currently discounted prices(but not even close to bottom prices). I also agree that rental supply has surged up here as well. The market is quite loose up here, in other words there are many vacant homes, either for sale or for rent. I further agree that rents must retreat, as they are currently IMHO.

I have seen 3/2 bed homes for rent in Temecula for around 1500. It seemed that 2 years ago, there wasn’t any homes to rent for under 1600.

Another reason is that so many employed up here were in construction or real estate related fields that have now nearly come to a halt. There are only so many big box stores, diners, car dealers, or school district jobs that one can apply for, and all of these employers are letting go as well due to the beginning of the recession. I say recession because you can debate whether the US is in a recession, but there is really no debate that CA, and especially the bubble areas are in a recession.

I also agree that the initial phase of investors is being burned, and that there is a good chance that some of the homes closing escrow of late will be back on the auction block or MLS in a year or so. I still hear of people buying with less that 20% down, and I guess fha and va are popular.

Yes, we are on the cusp of another big step down in pricing, this I am nearly certain, but I agree with others like TG that we are experiencing a “suckers rally” or a bear market rally which is normal and to be expected. It may last until mid summer, or so. Prices aren’t rising or anything, but there are those who can’t resist pulling the trigger. Not to mention people still have the “Donald Trump Syndrome” where they think that owning homes = millionaire in the making. But there is a whole slew of supply that will hit the market in 3 to 6 months.

I look at it this way: The housing bubble allowed thousands of homes to be built for thousands of people who shouldn’t have been buyers(fbs, subprimers). Many of these people were questionable renters at best. But since they had a pulse, they bought a home. The homes that they bought with money that didn’t exist, not only drove home values up in a violent, and volatile manner, it also created thousands of jobs, from construction to RE, to landscape, etc. I mean, construction and RE in the IE is like casinos and gambling in Las Vegas. Now that we are seeing that these people foreclose, sell short, etc, we are left with a bunch of homes that don’t have enough qualified buyer. Buyers now either left the area, can’t qualify, have damaged credit now, or have lost their bubble jobs too. Point is that many investors aren’t thinking this out. As someone investing in rentals in Temecula, you need to consider home price depreciation, recessionary effects of the locals to pay rent, and possible increase in vacancy rates.

ok.. enough for now.

[hipmatt]

Great proposal Baron and Rustico. I will agree that the not so prudent investors are buying up some of these REOs at these currently discounted prices(but not even close to bottom prices). I also agree that rental supply has surged up here as well. The market is quite loose up here, in other words there are many vacant homes, either for sale or for rent. I further agree that rents must retreat, as they are currently IMHO.

I have seen 3/2 bed homes for rent in Temecula for around 1500. It seemed that 2 years ago, there wasn’t any homes to rent for under 1600.

Another reason is that so many employed up here were in construction or real estate related fields that have now nearly come to a halt. There are only so many big box stores, diners, car dealers, or school district jobs that one can apply for, and all of these employers are letting go as well due to the beginning of the recession. I say recession because you can debate whether the US is in a recession, but there is really no debate that CA, and especially the bubble areas are in a recession.

I also agree that the initial phase of investors is being burned, and that there is a good chance that some of the homes closing escrow of late will be back on the auction block or MLS in a year or so. I still hear of people buying with less that 20% down, and I guess fha and va are popular.

Yes, we are on the cusp of another big step down in pricing, this I am nearly certain, but I agree with others like TG that we are experiencing a “suckers rally” or a bear market rally which is normal and to be expected. It may last until mid summer, or so. Prices aren’t rising or anything, but there are those who can’t resist pulling the trigger. Not to mention people still have the “Donald Trump Syndrome” where they think that owning homes = millionaire in the making. But there is a whole slew of supply that will hit the market in 3 to 6 months.

I look at it this way: The housing bubble allowed thousands of homes to be built for thousands of people who shouldn’t have been buyers(fbs, subprimers). Many of these people were questionable renters at best. But since they had a pulse, they bought a home. The homes that they bought with money that didn’t exist, not only drove home values up in a violent, and volatile manner, it also created thousands of jobs, from construction to RE, to landscape, etc. I mean, construction and RE in the IE is like casinos and gambling in Las Vegas. Now that we are seeing that these people foreclose, sell short, etc, we are left with a bunch of homes that don’t have enough qualified buyer. Buyers now either left the area, can’t qualify, have damaged credit now, or have lost their bubble jobs too. Point is that many investors aren’t thinking this out. As someone investing in rentals in Temecula, you need to consider home price depreciation, recessionary effects of the locals to pay rent, and possible increase in vacancy rates.

ok.. enough for now.

[hipmatt]

Great proposal Baron and Rustico. I will agree that the not so prudent investors are buying up some of these REOs at these currently discounted prices(but not even close to bottom prices). I also agree that rental supply has surged up here as well. The market is quite loose up here, in other words there are many vacant homes, either for sale or for rent. I further agree that rents must retreat, as they are currently IMHO.

I have seen 3/2 bed homes for rent in Temecula for around 1500. It seemed that 2 years ago, there wasn’t any homes to rent for under 1600.

Another reason is that so many employed up here were in construction or real estate related fields that have now nearly come to a halt. There are only so many big box stores, diners, car dealers, or school district jobs that one can apply for, and all of these employers are letting go as well due to the beginning of the recession. I say recession because you can debate whether the US is in a recession, but there is really no debate that CA, and especially the bubble areas are in a recession.

I also agree that the initial phase of investors is being burned, and that there is a good chance that some of the homes closing escrow of late will be back on the auction block or MLS in a year or so. I still hear of people buying with less that 20% down, and I guess fha and va are popular.

Yes, we are on the cusp of another big step down in pricing, this I am nearly certain, but I agree with others like TG that we are experiencing a “suckers rally” or a bear market rally which is normal and to be expected. It may last until mid summer, or so. Prices aren’t rising or anything, but there are those who can’t resist pulling the trigger. Not to mention people still have the “Donald Trump Syndrome” where they think that owning homes = millionaire in the making. But there is a whole slew of supply that will hit the market in 3 to 6 months.

I look at it this way: The housing bubble allowed thousands of homes to be built for thousands of people who shouldn’t have been buyers(fbs, subprimers). Many of these people were questionable renters at best. But since they had a pulse, they bought a home. The homes that they bought with money that didn’t exist, not only drove home values up in a violent, and volatile manner, it also created thousands of jobs, from construction to RE, to landscape, etc. I mean, construction and RE in the IE is like casinos and gambling in Las Vegas. Now that we are seeing that these people foreclose, sell short, etc, we are left with a bunch of homes that don’t have enough qualified buyer. Buyers now either left the area, can’t qualify, have damaged credit now, or have lost their bubble jobs too. Point is that many investors aren’t thinking this out. As someone investing in rentals in Temecula, you need to consider home price depreciation, recessionary effects of the locals to pay rent, and possible increase in vacancy rates.

ok.. enough for now.

[hipmatt]

Great proposal Baron and Rustico. I will agree that the not so prudent investors are buying up some of these REOs at these currently discounted prices(but not even close to bottom prices). I also agree that rental supply has surged up here as well. The market is quite loose up here, in other words there are many vacant homes, either for sale or for rent. I further agree that rents must retreat, as they are currently IMHO.

I have seen 3/2 bed homes for rent in Temecula for around 1500. It seemed that 2 years ago, there wasn’t any homes to rent for under 1600.

Another reason is that so many employed up here were in construction or real estate related fields that have now nearly come to a halt. There are only so many big box stores, diners, car dealers, or school district jobs that one can apply for, and all of these employers are letting go as well due to the beginning of the recession. I say recession because you can debate whether the US is in a recession, but there is really no debate that CA, and especially the bubble areas are in a recession.

I also agree that the initial phase of investors is being burned, and that there is a good chance that some of the homes closing escrow of late will be back on the auction block or MLS in a year or so. I still hear of people buying with less that 20% down, and I guess fha and va are popular.

Yes, we are on the cusp of another big step down in pricing, this I am nearly certain, but I agree with others like TG that we are experiencing a “suckers rally” or a bear market rally which is normal and to be expected. It may last until mid summer, or so. Prices aren’t rising or anything, but there are those who can’t resist pulling the trigger. Not to mention people still have the “Donald Trump Syndrome” where they think that owning homes = millionaire in the making. But there is a whole slew of supply that will hit the market in 3 to 6 months.

I look at it this way: The housing bubble allowed thousands of homes to be built for thousands of people who shouldn’t have been buyers(fbs, subprimers). Many of these people were questionable renters at best. But since they had a pulse, they bought a home. The homes that they bought with money that didn’t exist, not only drove home values up in a violent, and volatile manner, it also created thousands of jobs, from construction to RE, to landscape, etc. I mean, construction and RE in the IE is like casinos and gambling in Las Vegas. Now that we are seeing that these people foreclose, sell short, etc, we are left with a bunch of homes that don’t have enough qualified buyer. Buyers now either left the area, can’t qualify, have damaged credit now, or have lost their bubble jobs too. Point is that many investors aren’t thinking this out. As someone investing in rentals in Temecula, you need to consider home price depreciation, recessionary effects of the locals to pay rent, and possible increase in vacancy rates.

ok.. enough for now.

[Baron von Rothschild]

One reason I ask about rents is that a family friend has been renting out a house in Sacramento for years. Our friend recently called the tennants to voluntarily lower the rent since the rental market has declined greatly and our friend wants to keep the tenants. Temecula seems to be getting a smackdown similar to Sacramento in house prices, so I assume rental rates aren’t far behind. Pity the knife catcher investors.

[stockstradr]

My position is that rents will drop in real dollars. Our $2600/month lease ended this month, and we are looking for a better deal on rent (with this existing home, or move to another).

However, it becomes a very tricky question when we talk nominal dollar trends for rents, housing prices, and the stock market.

There are very significant MULTIPLE pressures for the US government to allow inflation to accelerate into a massive decline in the dollar. This solves our government’s runaway foreign debt problem: simply inflate your way out of debt.

One could even argue that it is inevitable our government will allow (and promote) massive dollar inflation, because our country has backed itself into a corner in terms of debt, housing crisis, coming recession, and trade imbalance; it appears the only way out is massive dollar inflation. Ron Paul believes that government (dollar inflation) conspiracy is already underway. I see this leading to a significant decline in the American standard of living.

We also have the Fed dropping rates, and directly pumping billions into the system to: 1) avoid a collapse of financial systems. 2) As stimulus avoid a recession. Then we also have trade imbalance pressures upon the dollar. And we have nations like China getting VERY TIRED of holding 1.5 trillion in a declining currency. Eventually, nations like China will start dumping dollars and dollar-denominated investments (has that already started?)

The dollar has already fallen 15% in twelve months against a basket of trade weighted currencies.

I’m suggesting that it IS possible that accelarating dollar inflation will result in housing prices starting to RISE in nominal dollars, and same for our dollar denominated stock markets.

I’m keeping a close watch on this because it is a risk factor for nominal – dollar short positions I have against US stock market indexes, including S&P 500, NASDAQ, and also the US oil and gas stock index.

If I’m right about even half of the above ramblings, gold appreciation will dramatically accelerate. It is one obvious alternative to the dollar.

[temeculaguy]

I just realized something else, after reading a lot of the political and financial posts and articles, mark these words. Real estate investors will become the new “smokers.” Politicians will crucify them with new taxes and regulations, lenders will avoid them, foreign investors will put them into a new category and the public will give them no pity or support. All of the presidential candidates from either party end their speaches with the caveat in essence saying f&#k the investors. Not the wall street investor mind you but the little guy buying a rental property or two. I’d be wary of entering that endeavor right now, there’s a mob forming and the most likely scapegoat is the small time R/E investor. All that’s left is for Angelina Jolie or Tim Robbins to start making public statements against flippers and landlords, it’s gonna happen and when it does, that will be your cue to buy some rentals. As soon as someone yells “fire” and everyone runs from the building it will be time to run in, not a second before.

[temeculaguy]

I just realized something else, after reading a lot of the political and financial posts and articles, mark these words. Real estate investors will become the new “smokers.” Politicians will crucify them with new taxes and regulations, lenders will avoid them, foreign investors will put them into a new category and the public will give them no pity or support. All of the presidential candidates from either party end their speaches with the caveat in essence saying f&#k the investors. Not the wall street investor mind you but the little guy buying a rental property or two. I’d be wary of entering that endeavor right now, there’s a mob forming and the most likely scapegoat is the small time R/E investor. All that’s left is for Angelina Jolie or Tim Robbins to start making public statements against flippers and landlords, it’s gonna happen and when it does, that will be your cue to buy some rentals. As soon as someone yells “fire” and everyone runs from the building it will be time to run in, not a second before.

[temeculaguy]

I just realized something else, after reading a lot of the political and financial posts and articles, mark these words. Real estate investors will become the new “smokers.” Politicians will crucify them with new taxes and regulations, lenders will avoid them, foreign investors will put them into a new category and the public will give them no pity or support. All of the presidential candidates from either party end their speaches with the caveat in essence saying f&#k the investors. Not the wall street investor mind you but the little guy buying a rental property or two. I’d be wary of entering that endeavor right now, there’s a mob forming and the most likely scapegoat is the small time R/E investor. All that’s left is for Angelina Jolie or Tim Robbins to start making public statements against flippers and landlords, it’s gonna happen and when it does, that will be your cue to buy some rentals. As soon as someone yells “fire” and everyone runs from the building it will be time to run in, not a second before.

[temeculaguy]

I just realized something else, after reading a lot of the political and financial posts and articles, mark these words. Real estate investors will become the new “smokers.” Politicians will crucify them with new taxes and regulations, lenders will avoid them, foreign investors will put them into a new category and the public will give them no pity or support. All of the presidential candidates from either party end their speaches with the caveat in essence saying f&#k the investors. Not the wall street investor mind you but the little guy buying a rental property or two. I’d be wary of entering that endeavor right now, there’s a mob forming and the most likely scapegoat is the small time R/E investor. All that’s left is for Angelina Jolie or Tim Robbins to start making public statements against flippers and landlords, it’s gonna happen and when it does, that will be your cue to buy some rentals. As soon as someone yells “fire” and everyone runs from the building it will be time to run in, not a second before.

[temeculaguy]

I just realized something else, after reading a lot of the political and financial posts and articles, mark these words. Real estate investors will become the new “smokers.” Politicians will crucify them with new taxes and regulations, lenders will avoid them, foreign investors will put them into a new category and the public will give them no pity or support. All of the presidential candidates from either party end their speaches with the caveat in essence saying f&#k the investors. Not the wall street investor mind you but the little guy buying a rental property or two. I’d be wary of entering that endeavor right now, there’s a mob forming and the most likely scapegoat is the small time R/E investor. All that’s left is for Angelina Jolie or Tim Robbins to start making public statements against flippers and landlords, it’s gonna happen and when it does, that will be your cue to buy some rentals. As soon as someone yells “fire” and everyone runs from the building it will be time to run in, not a second before.

[stockstradr]

My position is that rents will drop in real dollars. Our $2600/month lease ended this month, and we are looking for a better deal on rent (with this existing home, or move to another).

However, it becomes a very tricky question when we talk nominal dollar trends for rents, housing prices, and the stock market.

There are very significant MULTIPLE pressures for the US government to allow inflation to accelerate into a massive decline in the dollar. This solves our government’s runaway foreign debt problem: simply inflate your way out of debt.

One could even argue that it is inevitable our government will allow (and promote) massive dollar inflation, because our country has backed itself into a corner in terms of debt, housing crisis, coming recession, and trade imbalance; it appears the only way out is massive dollar inflation. Ron Paul believes that government (dollar inflation) conspiracy is already underway. I see this leading to a significant decline in the American standard of living.

We also have the Fed dropping rates, and directly pumping billions into the system to: 1) avoid a collapse of financial systems. 2) As stimulus avoid a recession. Then we also have trade imbalance pressures upon the dollar. And we have nations like China getting VERY TIRED of holding 1.5 trillion in a declining currency. Eventually, nations like China will start dumping dollars and dollar-denominated investments (has that already started?)

The dollar has already fallen 15% in twelve months against a basket of trade weighted currencies.

I’m suggesting that it IS possible that accelarating dollar inflation will result in housing prices starting to RISE in nominal dollars, and same for our dollar denominated stock markets.

I’m keeping a close watch on this because it is a risk factor for nominal – dollar short positions I have against US stock market indexes, including S&P 500, NASDAQ, and also the US oil and gas stock index.

If I’m right about even half of the above ramblings, gold appreciation will dramatically accelerate. It is one obvious alternative to the dollar.

[stockstradr]

My position is that rents will drop in real dollars. Our $2600/month lease ended this month, and we are looking for a better deal on rent (with this existing home, or move to another).

However, it becomes a very tricky question when we talk nominal dollar trends for rents, housing prices, and the stock market.

There are very significant MULTIPLE pressures for the US government to allow inflation to accelerate into a massive decline in the dollar. This solves our government’s runaway foreign debt problem: simply inflate your way out of debt.

One could even argue that it is inevitable our government will allow (and promote) massive dollar inflation, because our country has backed itself into a corner in terms of debt, housing crisis, coming recession, and trade imbalance; it appears the only way out is massive dollar inflation. Ron Paul believes that government (dollar inflation) conspiracy is already underway. I see this leading to a significant decline in the American standard of living.

We also have the Fed dropping rates, and directly pumping billions into the system to: 1) avoid a collapse of financial systems. 2) As stimulus avoid a recession. Then we also have trade imbalance pressures upon the dollar. And we have nations like China getting VERY TIRED of holding 1.5 trillion in a declining currency. Eventually, nations like China will start dumping dollars and dollar-denominated investments (has that already started?)

The dollar has already fallen 15% in twelve months against a basket of trade weighted currencies.

I’m suggesting that it IS possible that accelarating dollar inflation will result in housing prices starting to RISE in nominal dollars, and same for our dollar denominated stock markets.

I’m keeping a close watch on this because it is a risk factor for nominal – dollar short positions I have against US stock market indexes, including S&P 500, NASDAQ, and also the US oil and gas stock index.

If I’m right about even half of the above ramblings, gold appreciation will dramatically accelerate. It is one obvious alternative to the dollar.

[stockstradr]

My position is that rents will drop in real dollars. Our $2600/month lease ended this month, and we are looking for a better deal on rent (with this existing home, or move to another).

However, it becomes a very tricky question when we talk nominal dollar trends for rents, housing prices, and the stock market.

There are very significant MULTIPLE pressures for the US government to allow inflation to accelerate into a massive decline in the dollar. This solves our government’s runaway foreign debt problem: simply inflate your way out of debt.

One could even argue that it is inevitable our government will allow (and promote) massive dollar inflation, because our country has backed itself into a corner in terms of debt, housing crisis, coming recession, and trade imbalance; it appears the only way out is massive dollar inflation. Ron Paul believes that government (dollar inflation) conspiracy is already underway. I see this leading to a significant decline in the American standard of living.

We also have the Fed dropping rates, and directly pumping billions into the system to: 1) avoid a collapse of financial systems. 2) As stimulus avoid a recession. Then we also have trade imbalance pressures upon the dollar. And we have nations like China getting VERY TIRED of holding 1.5 trillion in a declining currency. Eventually, nations like China will start dumping dollars and dollar-denominated investments (has that already started?)

The dollar has already fallen 15% in twelve months against a basket of trade weighted currencies.

I’m suggesting that it IS possible that accelarating dollar inflation will result in housing prices starting to RISE in nominal dollars, and same for our dollar denominated stock markets.

I’m keeping a close watch on this because it is a risk factor for nominal – dollar short positions I have against US stock market indexes, including S&P 500, NASDAQ, and also the US oil and gas stock index.

If I’m right about even half of the above ramblings, gold appreciation will dramatically accelerate. It is one obvious alternative to the dollar.

[stockstradr]

My position is that rents will drop in real dollars. Our $2600/month lease ended this month, and we are looking for a better deal on rent (with this existing home, or move to another).

However, it becomes a very tricky question when we talk nominal dollar trends for rents, housing prices, and the stock market.

There are very significant MULTIPLE pressures for the US government to allow inflation to accelerate into a massive decline in the dollar. This solves our government’s runaway foreign debt problem: simply inflate your way out of debt.

One could even argue that it is inevitable our government will allow (and promote) massive dollar inflation, because our country has backed itself into a corner in terms of debt, housing crisis, coming recession, and trade imbalance; it appears the only way out is massive dollar inflation. Ron Paul believes that government (dollar inflation) conspiracy is already underway. I see this leading to a significant decline in the American standard of living.

We also have the Fed dropping rates, and directly pumping billions into the system to: 1) avoid a collapse of financial systems. 2) As stimulus avoid a recession. Then we also have trade imbalance pressures upon the dollar. And we have nations like China getting VERY TIRED of holding 1.5 trillion in a declining currency. Eventually, nations like China will start dumping dollars and dollar-denominated investments (has that already started?)

The dollar has already fallen 15% in twelve months against a basket of trade weighted currencies.

I’m suggesting that it IS possible that accelarating dollar inflation will result in housing prices starting to RISE in nominal dollars, and same for our dollar denominated stock markets.

I’m keeping a close watch on this because it is a risk factor for nominal – dollar short positions I have against US stock market indexes, including S&P 500, NASDAQ, and also the US oil and gas stock index.

If I’m right about even half of the above ramblings, gold appreciation will dramatically accelerate. It is one obvious alternative to the dollar.

[Baron von Rothschild]

One reason I ask about rents is that a family friend has been renting out a house in Sacramento for years. Our friend recently called the tennants to voluntarily lower the rent since the rental market has declined greatly and our friend wants to keep the tenants. Temecula seems to be getting a smackdown similar to Sacramento in house prices, so I assume rental rates aren’t far behind. Pity the knife catcher investors.

[Baron von Rothschild]

One reason I ask about rents is that a family friend has been renting out a house in Sacramento for years. Our friend recently called the tennants to voluntarily lower the rent since the rental market has declined greatly and our friend wants to keep the tenants. Temecula seems to be getting a smackdown similar to Sacramento in house prices, so I assume rental rates aren’t far behind. Pity the knife catcher investors.

[Baron von Rothschild]

One reason I ask about rents is that a family friend has been renting out a house in Sacramento for years. Our friend recently called the tennants to voluntarily lower the rent since the rental market has declined greatly and our friend wants to keep the tenants. Temecula seems to be getting a smackdown similar to Sacramento in house prices, so I assume rental rates aren’t far behind. Pity the knife catcher investors.

[Baron von Rothschild]

One reason I ask about rents is that a family friend has been renting out a house in Sacramento for years. Our friend recently called the tennants to voluntarily lower the rent since the rental market has declined greatly and our friend wants to keep the tenants. Temecula seems to be getting a smackdown similar to Sacramento in house prices, so I assume rental rates aren’t far behind. Pity the knife catcher investors.

[Baron von Rothschild]

Yes, TG, as my great-great-great-great-great grandpa used to say, “The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets”.

[Baron von Rothschild]

Yes, TG, as my great-great-great-great-great grandpa used to say, “The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets”.

[Baron von Rothschild]

Yes, TG, as my great-great-great-great-great grandpa used to say, “The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets”.

[Baron von Rothschild]

Yes, TG, as my great-great-great-great-great grandpa used to say, “The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets”.

[Baron von Rothschild]

Yes, TG, as my great-great-great-great-great grandpa used to say, “The time to buy is when blood is running in the streets”.

[Author]

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