What am I missing? Is that a train coming at me or am I Chicken Little?

[echo5juliet]

It is quite obvious that there are people in this forum far smarter and more educated in finance than I am. Hopefully one (or more) of you can tell me what I am missing.

The dollar is rapidly declining in value. Every time the fed hacks interest rates the dollar slides down more as a result. The dow moves up but not at a rate that overcomes the dollar’s devaluation. We moron types watch the 5pm news and see the green Dow arrow pointing up and we think all is well. 5 years of Bush’s Iraq wanderlust has cost us billions and billions of dollars we will unlikely recoup in cheap oil. China holds trillions in US treasury bonds that artificially prop up the currency, all so we dummies keep buying Chinese made crud we don’t need. As consumers we keep mindlessly buying crud made in China and the end result is that our consolidated domestic wealth gets sent offshore and is not recouped. The devaluation of the dollar is close to causing OPEC to revalue the oil market based on the Euro instead of the Petrodollar. In addition to the dollar’s fall this move is being actively promoted by unfriendly personalities like Chavez and Ahmadinejad. On top of all of that several hedge funds, investment banks, traditional banks and funds are significantly leveraged in the subprime/housing ether bubble.

Many TV pudits say that another 1929 wont happen. Yet they fail to state or admit that in 1929 our society and economy was that of a exporter/manufacturer, now we are an importer/consumer economy. Then our currency was backed by gold and silver, now it is fiat monopoly money. Then we did not have much credit exposure, now we have trillions of dollars in exposure to consumer, real estate and institutional credit.

So, there you have the view of an uneducated idiot consumer and “little guy” investor. Can anyone tell me why I shouldn’t move to a minimal risk position in metals and dig a foxhole in my front yard?

(disclaimer: I added the foxhole for comic relief)

[Coronita]

Because if you believe you are average joe, and if other average joes and j6p's are talking about moving money into commodities and foreign investments, and when the investment houses start to massively advertise moving things into commodities and foreign investments, perhaps this is like herd mentality which doesn't really know what they're getting themselves into? Herds always seems to drives up prices, and it seems like mainstream media has caught commodity, precious metals, etc. It probably is too late to move into precious metals/energy/foreign assets.

Seriously though, when did you start to think about metals/commodities? Is it something you read on CNN or the like? If so, don't you think others are thinking the same thing?

 

Anyone else catch on NPR yesterday night that some european companies are starting to complain that with the weak dollar, it's hurting them competitively? I'm just wondering how a strong Euro in the long term is going to help EU companies.

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Because if you believe you are average joe, and if other average joes and j6p's are talking about moving money into commodities and foreign investments, and when the investment houses start to massively advertise moving things into commodities and foreign investments, perhaps this is like herd mentality which doesn't really know what they're getting themselves into? Herds always seems to drives up prices, and it seems like mainstream media has caught commodity, precious metals, etc. It probably is too late to move into precious metals/energy/foreign assets.

Seriously though, when did you start to think about metals/commodities? Is it something you read on CNN or the like? If so, don't you think others are thinking the same thing?

 

Anyone else catch on NPR yesterday night that some european companies are starting to complain that with the weak dollar, it's hurting them competitively? I'm just wondering how a strong Euro in the long term is going to help EU companies.

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Because if you believe you are average joe, and if other average joes and j6p's are talking about moving money into commodities and foreign investments, and when the investment houses start to massively advertise moving things into commodities and foreign investments, perhaps this is like herd mentality which doesn't really know what they're getting themselves into? Herds always seems to drives up prices, and it seems like mainstream media has caught commodity, precious metals, etc. It probably is too late to move into precious metals/energy/foreign assets.

Seriously though, when did you start to think about metals/commodities? Is it something you read on CNN or the like? If so, don't you think others are thinking the same thing?

 

Anyone else catch on NPR yesterday night that some european companies are starting to complain that with the weak dollar, it's hurting them competitively? I'm just wondering how a strong Euro in the long term is going to help EU companies.

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Because if you believe you are average joe, and if other average joes and j6p's are talking about moving money into commodities and foreign investments, and when the investment houses start to massively advertise moving things into commodities and foreign investments, perhaps this is like herd mentality which doesn't really know what they're getting themselves into? Herds always seems to drives up prices, and it seems like mainstream media has caught commodity, precious metals, etc. It probably is too late to move into precious metals/energy/foreign assets.

Seriously though, when did you start to think about metals/commodities? Is it something you read on CNN or the like? If so, don't you think others are thinking the same thing?

 

Anyone else catch on NPR yesterday night that some european companies are starting to complain that with the weak dollar, it's hurting them competitively? I'm just wondering how a strong Euro in the long term is going to help EU companies.

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Coronita]

Because if you believe you are average joe, and if other average joes and j6p's are talking about moving money into commodities and foreign investments, and when the investment houses start to massively advertise moving things into commodities and foreign investments, perhaps this is like herd mentality which doesn't really know what they're getting themselves into? Herds always seems to drives up prices, and it seems like mainstream media has caught commodity, precious metals, etc. It probably is too late to move into precious metals/energy/foreign assets.

Seriously though, when did you start to think about metals/commodities? Is it something you read on CNN or the like? If so, don't you think others are thinking the same thing?

 

Anyone else catch on NPR yesterday night that some european companies are starting to complain that with the weak dollar, it's hurting them competitively? I'm just wondering how a strong Euro in the long term is going to help EU companies.

 

 

[img_assist|nid=5962|title=selfportrait|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=80]

—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[echo5juliet]

Well I am not quite J6P nor a moron. I am a master of self-deprecation. =) I am an educated technologist and my expertise is in the flow of electrons not the flow of capital.

To your “seriousness” question, I have been leaning toward metals for the past three years. Today I am suffering from procrastination induced remorse and based on the points I laid out in the original post it seems to me that things can only go down from here. After all, the fed cannot ratchet rates down much lower and any movement they make only devalues the greenback even more. Gold in the 900s and oil dancing back and forth around $110 may be the peak to some but if all forces are considered (geopolitical, market/credit, subprime, commodity/resource constraints) the future appears quite likely to go even deeper into the abyss.

(note: my real niche talent is systemic analysis and on some levels there is not much difference between micro and macro systems, cause and effect, electrons, people, etc)

The only brass ring I can see for the dollar and American economy is that a pummeled dollar makes us a prime candidate for manufacturing and exporting. That may happen in time but it would take a fair amount of time (2-4 years) to revive our domestic manufacturing infrastructure that has been eviscerated by China. For some industries domestic manufacturing and exportation would not even help due to the fact that some industries depend on materials that are controlled globally to artificially maintain price parity between the Americas, Asia and Europe.

In those 2-4 years we Americans would face stagflation and a dollar swirling around the drain. By that time, the insiders would have already made the move to low risk investments like metals, foreign money markets, etc.

The real concern of J6P and non-finance people like me is the risk of being the straw man. The group of small investors that holds up the market while the insiders slide out from under. If things are really going to take a bigger nose dive in the next 3-9 months my family would appreciate it if I moved out from under before everything pops.

Make sense?

I keep waiting for someone to point out a variable that I have not considered or a basic concept I do not understand but so far that hasn’t happened.

I know I am being “glass if half full” but as one of my favorite bumper sticker slogans goes “Just because I am paranoid does not mean they are not following me”. That was another attempt at levity.

Seriously, where is the border between cynicism and realism?

[echo5juliet]

Well I am not quite J6P nor a moron. I am a master of self-deprecation. =) I am an educated technologist and my expertise is in the flow of electrons not the flow of capital.

To your “seriousness” question, I have been leaning toward metals for the past three years. Today I am suffering from procrastination induced remorse and based on the points I laid out in the original post it seems to me that things can only go down from here. After all, the fed cannot ratchet rates down much lower and any movement they make only devalues the greenback even more. Gold in the 900s and oil dancing back and forth around $110 may be the peak to some but if all forces are considered (geopolitical, market/credit, subprime, commodity/resource constraints) the future appears quite likely to go even deeper into the abyss.

(note: my real niche talent is systemic analysis and on some levels there is not much difference between micro and macro systems, cause and effect, electrons, people, etc)

The only brass ring I can see for the dollar and American economy is that a pummeled dollar makes us a prime candidate for manufacturing and exporting. That may happen in time but it would take a fair amount of time (2-4 years) to revive our domestic manufacturing infrastructure that has been eviscerated by China. For some industries domestic manufacturing and exportation would not even help due to the fact that some industries depend on materials that are controlled globally to artificially maintain price parity between the Americas, Asia and Europe.

In those 2-4 years we Americans would face stagflation and a dollar swirling around the drain. By that time, the insiders would have already made the move to low risk investments like metals, foreign money markets, etc.

The real concern of J6P and non-finance people like me is the risk of being the straw man. The group of small investors that holds up the market while the insiders slide out from under. If things are really going to take a bigger nose dive in the next 3-9 months my family would appreciate it if I moved out from under before everything pops.

Make sense?

I keep waiting for someone to point out a variable that I have not considered or a basic concept I do not understand but so far that hasn’t happened.

I know I am being “glass if half full” but as one of my favorite bumper sticker slogans goes “Just because I am paranoid does not mean they are not following me”. That was another attempt at levity.

Seriously, where is the border between cynicism and realism?

[echo5juliet]

Well I am not quite J6P nor a moron. I am a master of self-deprecation. =) I am an educated technologist and my expertise is in the flow of electrons not the flow of capital.

To your “seriousness” question, I have been leaning toward metals for the past three years. Today I am suffering from procrastination induced remorse and based on the points I laid out in the original post it seems to me that things can only go down from here. After all, the fed cannot ratchet rates down much lower and any movement they make only devalues the greenback even more. Gold in the 900s and oil dancing back and forth around $110 may be the peak to some but if all forces are considered (geopolitical, market/credit, subprime, commodity/resource constraints) the future appears quite likely to go even deeper into the abyss.

(note: my real niche talent is systemic analysis and on some levels there is not much difference between micro and macro systems, cause and effect, electrons, people, etc)

The only brass ring I can see for the dollar and American economy is that a pummeled dollar makes us a prime candidate for manufacturing and exporting. That may happen in time but it would take a fair amount of time (2-4 years) to revive our domestic manufacturing infrastructure that has been eviscerated by China. For some industries domestic manufacturing and exportation would not even help due to the fact that some industries depend on materials that are controlled globally to artificially maintain price parity between the Americas, Asia and Europe.

In those 2-4 years we Americans would face stagflation and a dollar swirling around the drain. By that time, the insiders would have already made the move to low risk investments like metals, foreign money markets, etc.

The real concern of J6P and non-finance people like me is the risk of being the straw man. The group of small investors that holds up the market while the insiders slide out from under. If things are really going to take a bigger nose dive in the next 3-9 months my family would appreciate it if I moved out from under before everything pops.

Make sense?

I keep waiting for someone to point out a variable that I have not considered or a basic concept I do not understand but so far that hasn’t happened.

I know I am being “glass if half full” but as one of my favorite bumper sticker slogans goes “Just because I am paranoid does not mean they are not following me”. That was another attempt at levity.

Seriously, where is the border between cynicism and realism?

[echo5juliet]

Well I am not quite J6P nor a moron. I am a master of self-deprecation. =) I am an educated technologist and my expertise is in the flow of electrons not the flow of capital.

To your “seriousness” question, I have been leaning toward metals for the past three years. Today I am suffering from procrastination induced remorse and based on the points I laid out in the original post it seems to me that things can only go down from here. After all, the fed cannot ratchet rates down much lower and any movement they make only devalues the greenback even more. Gold in the 900s and oil dancing back and forth around $110 may be the peak to some but if all forces are considered (geopolitical, market/credit, subprime, commodity/resource constraints) the future appears quite likely to go even deeper into the abyss.

(note: my real niche talent is systemic analysis and on some levels there is not much difference between micro and macro systems, cause and effect, electrons, people, etc)

The only brass ring I can see for the dollar and American economy is that a pummeled dollar makes us a prime candidate for manufacturing and exporting. That may happen in time but it would take a fair amount of time (2-4 years) to revive our domestic manufacturing infrastructure that has been eviscerated by China. For some industries domestic manufacturing and exportation would not even help due to the fact that some industries depend on materials that are controlled globally to artificially maintain price parity between the Americas, Asia and Europe.

In those 2-4 years we Americans would face stagflation and a dollar swirling around the drain. By that time, the insiders would have already made the move to low risk investments like metals, foreign money markets, etc.

The real concern of J6P and non-finance people like me is the risk of being the straw man. The group of small investors that holds up the market while the insiders slide out from under. If things are really going to take a bigger nose dive in the next 3-9 months my family would appreciate it if I moved out from under before everything pops.

Make sense?

I keep waiting for someone to point out a variable that I have not considered or a basic concept I do not understand but so far that hasn’t happened.

I know I am being “glass if half full” but as one of my favorite bumper sticker slogans goes “Just because I am paranoid does not mean they are not following me”. That was another attempt at levity.

Seriously, where is the border between cynicism and realism?

[echo5juliet]

Well I am not quite J6P nor a moron. I am a master of self-deprecation. =) I am an educated technologist and my expertise is in the flow of electrons not the flow of capital.

To your “seriousness” question, I have been leaning toward metals for the past three years. Today I am suffering from procrastination induced remorse and based on the points I laid out in the original post it seems to me that things can only go down from here. After all, the fed cannot ratchet rates down much lower and any movement they make only devalues the greenback even more. Gold in the 900s and oil dancing back and forth around $110 may be the peak to some but if all forces are considered (geopolitical, market/credit, subprime, commodity/resource constraints) the future appears quite likely to go even deeper into the abyss.

(note: my real niche talent is systemic analysis and on some levels there is not much difference between micro and macro systems, cause and effect, electrons, people, etc)

The only brass ring I can see for the dollar and American economy is that a pummeled dollar makes us a prime candidate for manufacturing and exporting. That may happen in time but it would take a fair amount of time (2-4 years) to revive our domestic manufacturing infrastructure that has been eviscerated by China. For some industries domestic manufacturing and exportation would not even help due to the fact that some industries depend on materials that are controlled globally to artificially maintain price parity between the Americas, Asia and Europe.

In those 2-4 years we Americans would face stagflation and a dollar swirling around the drain. By that time, the insiders would have already made the move to low risk investments like metals, foreign money markets, etc.

The real concern of J6P and non-finance people like me is the risk of being the straw man. The group of small investors that holds up the market while the insiders slide out from under. If things are really going to take a bigger nose dive in the next 3-9 months my family would appreciate it if I moved out from under before everything pops.

Make sense?

I keep waiting for someone to point out a variable that I have not considered or a basic concept I do not understand but so far that hasn’t happened.

I know I am being “glass if half full” but as one of my favorite bumper sticker slogans goes “Just because I am paranoid does not mean they are not following me”. That was another attempt at levity.

Seriously, where is the border between cynicism and realism?

[drunkle]

your concerns regarding gold/oil/wheat are similar to mine. as well, there’s speculation that the recent price drops of 10%+ are the result of hedge funds and institutional investors liquidating due to margin calls and capital requirements.

short treasury yields are practically zero indicating a “flight to quality”. assuming that the smart money is driving the yields down and j6p is clueless, i’d probably join the smart money and hide in short treasuries.

btw, metals, foreign currencies, etc are not exactly “low risk”. historical price of gold vs today, for instance, and currency backlash such as what just happened when the fed cut .75 instead of the expected 1.0.

edit:

also, jim cramer has been selling gold and oil lately whereas, 6 months ago, he was calling gold bugs “kooks”. what does that tell you? tells me its time to get out of gold/oil…

[drunkle]

your concerns regarding gold/oil/wheat are similar to mine. as well, there’s speculation that the recent price drops of 10%+ are the result of hedge funds and institutional investors liquidating due to margin calls and capital requirements.

short treasury yields are practically zero indicating a “flight to quality”. assuming that the smart money is driving the yields down and j6p is clueless, i’d probably join the smart money and hide in short treasuries.

btw, metals, foreign currencies, etc are not exactly “low risk”. historical price of gold vs today, for instance, and currency backlash such as what just happened when the fed cut .75 instead of the expected 1.0.

edit:

also, jim cramer has been selling gold and oil lately whereas, 6 months ago, he was calling gold bugs “kooks”. what does that tell you? tells me its time to get out of gold/oil…

[drunkle]

your concerns regarding gold/oil/wheat are similar to mine. as well, there’s speculation that the recent price drops of 10%+ are the result of hedge funds and institutional investors liquidating due to margin calls and capital requirements.

short treasury yields are practically zero indicating a “flight to quality”. assuming that the smart money is driving the yields down and j6p is clueless, i’d probably join the smart money and hide in short treasuries.

btw, metals, foreign currencies, etc are not exactly “low risk”. historical price of gold vs today, for instance, and currency backlash such as what just happened when the fed cut .75 instead of the expected 1.0.

edit:

also, jim cramer has been selling gold and oil lately whereas, 6 months ago, he was calling gold bugs “kooks”. what does that tell you? tells me its time to get out of gold/oil…

[drunkle]

your concerns regarding gold/oil/wheat are similar to mine. as well, there’s speculation that the recent price drops of 10%+ are the result of hedge funds and institutional investors liquidating due to margin calls and capital requirements.

short treasury yields are practically zero indicating a “flight to quality”. assuming that the smart money is driving the yields down and j6p is clueless, i’d probably join the smart money and hide in short treasuries.

btw, metals, foreign currencies, etc are not exactly “low risk”. historical price of gold vs today, for instance, and currency backlash such as what just happened when the fed cut .75 instead of the expected 1.0.

edit:

also, jim cramer has been selling gold and oil lately whereas, 6 months ago, he was calling gold bugs “kooks”. what does that tell you? tells me its time to get out of gold/oil…

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