[peterb]

For insight about the stock market, commodities and the housing market, check out Jim Rogers last book. I think that Chris Puplava just wrote a very good article on it as well. In terms of inflation adjusted, which you must do given its huge rise in the last 10 years, the Dow is at about 8000. Measured in Euro’s, in aint much better. And dont consider the CPI anywhere near accurate for inflation measurement. See http://www.shadowstatistics.com for accurate inflation and unemployment numbers.
We are about 10 years into commodities bull market and they historically last 15 to 20 years. What’s more important, they’re always inverse to the equities market. The US Govt has flooded the global financial system with so much US$ since 2001 that the dollar has been blown away. So this makes measurements in nominal $ very misleading. It’s also why almost every asset class has gone up in the last 8 years!! This is a VERY unusual event. And our extreme inflation explains why. Give a read to Marc Faber as well. He’s had some great insight in the last 10 years.
At any rate, given that the Fed will continue to print $$ and the commodities market is far from over, we should see oil and other commodities continue to rise despite the global recession that starting happen. This was the case in the 1970’s. It is comforting to see supply/demand maintain it’s power in the market despite all the attempted manipulations by central bankers and large money managers! My 2 cents.

[peterb]

For insight about the stock market, commodities and the housing market, check out Jim Rogers last book. I think that Chris Puplava just wrote a very good article on it as well. In terms of inflation adjusted, which you must do given its huge rise in the last 10 years, the Dow is at about 8000. Measured in Euro’s, in aint much better. And dont consider the CPI anywhere near accurate for inflation measurement. See http://www.shadowstatistics.com for accurate inflation and unemployment numbers.
We are about 10 years into commodities bull market and they historically last 15 to 20 years. What’s more important, they’re always inverse to the equities market. The US Govt has flooded the global financial system with so much US$ since 2001 that the dollar has been blown away. So this makes measurements in nominal $ very misleading. It’s also why almost every asset class has gone up in the last 8 years!! This is a VERY unusual event. And our extreme inflation explains why. Give a read to Marc Faber as well. He’s had some great insight in the last 10 years.
At any rate, given that the Fed will continue to print $$ and the commodities market is far from over, we should see oil and other commodities continue to rise despite the global recession that starting happen. This was the case in the 1970’s. It is comforting to see supply/demand maintain it’s power in the market despite all the attempted manipulations by central bankers and large money managers! My 2 cents.

[peterb]

For insight about the stock market, commodities and the housing market, check out Jim Rogers last book. I think that Chris Puplava just wrote a very good article on it as well. In terms of inflation adjusted, which you must do given its huge rise in the last 10 years, the Dow is at about 8000. Measured in Euro’s, in aint much better. And dont consider the CPI anywhere near accurate for inflation measurement. See http://www.shadowstatistics.com for accurate inflation and unemployment numbers.
We are about 10 years into commodities bull market and they historically last 15 to 20 years. What’s more important, they’re always inverse to the equities market. The US Govt has flooded the global financial system with so much US$ since 2001 that the dollar has been blown away. So this makes measurements in nominal $ very misleading. It’s also why almost every asset class has gone up in the last 8 years!! This is a VERY unusual event. And our extreme inflation explains why. Give a read to Marc Faber as well. He’s had some great insight in the last 10 years.
At any rate, given that the Fed will continue to print $$ and the commodities market is far from over, we should see oil and other commodities continue to rise despite the global recession that starting happen. This was the case in the 1970’s. It is comforting to see supply/demand maintain it’s power in the market despite all the attempted manipulations by central bankers and large money managers! My 2 cents.

[peterb]

For insight about the stock market, commodities and the housing market, check out Jim Rogers last book. I think that Chris Puplava just wrote a very good article on it as well. In terms of inflation adjusted, which you must do given its huge rise in the last 10 years, the Dow is at about 8000. Measured in Euro’s, in aint much better. And dont consider the CPI anywhere near accurate for inflation measurement. See http://www.shadowstatistics.com for accurate inflation and unemployment numbers.
We are about 10 years into commodities bull market and they historically last 15 to 20 years. What’s more important, they’re always inverse to the equities market. The US Govt has flooded the global financial system with so much US$ since 2001 that the dollar has been blown away. So this makes measurements in nominal $ very misleading. It’s also why almost every asset class has gone up in the last 8 years!! This is a VERY unusual event. And our extreme inflation explains why. Give a read to Marc Faber as well. He’s had some great insight in the last 10 years.
At any rate, given that the Fed will continue to print $$ and the commodities market is far from over, we should see oil and other commodities continue to rise despite the global recession that starting happen. This was the case in the 1970’s. It is comforting to see supply/demand maintain it’s power in the market despite all the attempted manipulations by central bankers and large money managers! My 2 cents.

[peterb]

For insight about the stock market, commodities and the housing market, check out Jim Rogers last book. I think that Chris Puplava just wrote a very good article on it as well. In terms of inflation adjusted, which you must do given its huge rise in the last 10 years, the Dow is at about 8000. Measured in Euro’s, in aint much better. And dont consider the CPI anywhere near accurate for inflation measurement. See http://www.shadowstatistics.com for accurate inflation and unemployment numbers.
We are about 10 years into commodities bull market and they historically last 15 to 20 years. What’s more important, they’re always inverse to the equities market. The US Govt has flooded the global financial system with so much US$ since 2001 that the dollar has been blown away. So this makes measurements in nominal $ very misleading. It’s also why almost every asset class has gone up in the last 8 years!! This is a VERY unusual event. And our extreme inflation explains why. Give a read to Marc Faber as well. He’s had some great insight in the last 10 years.
At any rate, given that the Fed will continue to print $$ and the commodities market is far from over, we should see oil and other commodities continue to rise despite the global recession that starting happen. This was the case in the 1970’s. It is comforting to see supply/demand maintain it’s power in the market despite all the attempted manipulations by central bankers and large money managers! My 2 cents.

[peterb]

If this site is any indication, I agree. And I think this would be a more bearish place then normal! There seems to be someone posting a desire to buy about every day or so. And coming up with all kinds of highly questionable arguements as reasons to purchase.
I’ve been a landlord. It is more expensive and time consuming than you may think. Most of the posting I’ve seen on this site about costs are pretty far out of line with reality. And IMO seem more like justifications rather than business analysis.
I tend to agree with Bruce Norris when he said that the real deals will arrive when real estate is despised as an investment. And he was referring to his experience in the last CA down cycle of 1990 to 1996.

[peterb]

If this site is any indication, I agree. And I think this would be a more bearish place then normal! There seems to be someone posting a desire to buy about every day or so. And coming up with all kinds of highly questionable arguements as reasons to purchase.
I’ve been a landlord. It is more expensive and time consuming than you may think. Most of the posting I’ve seen on this site about costs are pretty far out of line with reality. And IMO seem more like justifications rather than business analysis.
I tend to agree with Bruce Norris when he said that the real deals will arrive when real estate is despised as an investment. And he was referring to his experience in the last CA down cycle of 1990 to 1996.

[peterb]

If this site is any indication, I agree. And I think this would be a more bearish place then normal! There seems to be someone posting a desire to buy about every day or so. And coming up with all kinds of highly questionable arguements as reasons to purchase.
I’ve been a landlord. It is more expensive and time consuming than you may think. Most of the posting I’ve seen on this site about costs are pretty far out of line with reality. And IMO seem more like justifications rather than business analysis.
I tend to agree with Bruce Norris when he said that the real deals will arrive when real estate is despised as an investment. And he was referring to his experience in the last CA down cycle of 1990 to 1996.

[peterb]

If this site is any indication, I agree. And I think this would be a more bearish place then normal! There seems to be someone posting a desire to buy about every day or so. And coming up with all kinds of highly questionable arguements as reasons to purchase.
I’ve been a landlord. It is more expensive and time consuming than you may think. Most of the posting I’ve seen on this site about costs are pretty far out of line with reality. And IMO seem more like justifications rather than business analysis.
I tend to agree with Bruce Norris when he said that the real deals will arrive when real estate is despised as an investment. And he was referring to his experience in the last CA down cycle of 1990 to 1996.

[peterb]

If this site is any indication, I agree. And I think this would be a more bearish place then normal! There seems to be someone posting a desire to buy about every day or so. And coming up with all kinds of highly questionable arguements as reasons to purchase.
I’ve been a landlord. It is more expensive and time consuming than you may think. Most of the posting I’ve seen on this site about costs are pretty far out of line with reality. And IMO seem more like justifications rather than business analysis.
I tend to agree with Bruce Norris when he said that the real deals will arrive when real estate is despised as an investment. And he was referring to his experience in the last CA down cycle of 1990 to 1996.

[peterb]

I would be careful to not be overly negative. And it’s easy to be this way once the ball is rolling downhill like it is. It will stop somewhere.
But one good thing about RE is that it moves pretty slowly compared to many other things.

So a trend is not hard to identify. Volume of homes for sale has to come way down and REO’s have to get off the market as well. Then unemployment needs to get below 6% and RE has to show some verifiable YOY increase in price. Even after all this, it may languish for a while before it really rises again.But at least the trend will be in your favor at that point. When and if it comes.

China and India may put such huge downward pressure on wages and US employment that this may be a long time in coming.

[peterb]

I would be careful to not be overly negative. And it’s easy to be this way once the ball is rolling downhill like it is. It will stop somewhere.
But one good thing about RE is that it moves pretty slowly compared to many other things.

So a trend is not hard to identify. Volume of homes for sale has to come way down and REO’s have to get off the market as well. Then unemployment needs to get below 6% and RE has to show some verifiable YOY increase in price. Even after all this, it may languish for a while before it really rises again.But at least the trend will be in your favor at that point. When and if it comes.

China and India may put such huge downward pressure on wages and US employment that this may be a long time in coming.

[peterb]

I would be careful to not be overly negative. And it’s easy to be this way once the ball is rolling downhill like it is. It will stop somewhere.
But one good thing about RE is that it moves pretty slowly compared to many other things.

So a trend is not hard to identify. Volume of homes for sale has to come way down and REO’s have to get off the market as well. Then unemployment needs to get below 6% and RE has to show some verifiable YOY increase in price. Even after all this, it may languish for a while before it really rises again.But at least the trend will be in your favor at that point. When and if it comes.

China and India may put such huge downward pressure on wages and US employment that this may be a long time in coming.

[peterb]

I would be careful to not be overly negative. And it’s easy to be this way once the ball is rolling downhill like it is. It will stop somewhere.
But one good thing about RE is that it moves pretty slowly compared to many other things.

So a trend is not hard to identify. Volume of homes for sale has to come way down and REO’s have to get off the market as well. Then unemployment needs to get below 6% and RE has to show some verifiable YOY increase in price. Even after all this, it may languish for a while before it really rises again.But at least the trend will be in your favor at that point. When and if it comes.

China and India may put such huge downward pressure on wages and US employment that this may be a long time in coming.

[peterb]

I would be careful to not be overly negative. And it’s easy to be this way once the ball is rolling downhill like it is. It will stop somewhere.
But one good thing about RE is that it moves pretty slowly compared to many other things.

So a trend is not hard to identify. Volume of homes for sale has to come way down and REO’s have to get off the market as well. Then unemployment needs to get below 6% and RE has to show some verifiable YOY increase in price. Even after all this, it may languish for a while before it really rises again.But at least the trend will be in your favor at that point. When and if it comes.

China and India may put such huge downward pressure on wages and US employment that this may be a long time in coming.

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