Does this explain your observations

[Rich Toscano]

If buyers can achieve a good rental surplus (properly calculated) at the current level on purchase

This bit seems like a big “if” to me… if this is happening, I imagine it’s just in a few pockets and not widespread enough to form a regionally generalizable floor.

It still seems to me like the market, even the REO part of it, is pricing in a quick price rebound. People sometimes talk about getting positive cash flow without accounting for the opportunity cost of their down payment, or they talk about good deals where cash flow (often based on optimistic assumptions) is only slightly negative.

From a non-investor standpoint, there’s no doubt that despite all that has happened, there is still a sense of urgency for many people to get into a house. It wasn’t like this before the boom.

It still seems like the sentiment hasn’t been ground down to a point where there would be enough of a floor to offset all the REOs.

That’s my semi-coherent Friday afternoon 2 cents anyway…

Rich

[CA renter]

Agree 100%, Rich.

The bubble mentality is still alive and well. The buying frenzy is on, and the optimists are swarming right now.

IMO, we are nowhere near a bottom.

[CA renter]

Agree 100%, Rich.

The bubble mentality is still alive and well. The buying frenzy is on, and the optimists are swarming right now.

IMO, we are nowhere near a bottom.

[CA renter]

Agree 100%, Rich.

The bubble mentality is still alive and well. The buying frenzy is on, and the optimists are swarming right now.

IMO, we are nowhere near a bottom.

[CA renter]

Agree 100%, Rich.

The bubble mentality is still alive and well. The buying frenzy is on, and the optimists are swarming right now.

IMO, we are nowhere near a bottom.

[CA renter]

Agree 100%, Rich.

The bubble mentality is still alive and well. The buying frenzy is on, and the optimists are swarming right now.

IMO, we are nowhere near a bottom.

[peterb]

If this site is any indication, I agree. And I think this would be a more bearish place then normal! There seems to be someone posting a desire to buy about every day or so. And coming up with all kinds of highly questionable arguements as reasons to purchase.
I’ve been a landlord. It is more expensive and time consuming than you may think. Most of the posting I’ve seen on this site about costs are pretty far out of line with reality. And IMO seem more like justifications rather than business analysis.
I tend to agree with Bruce Norris when he said that the real deals will arrive when real estate is despised as an investment. And he was referring to his experience in the last CA down cycle of 1990 to 1996.

[peterb]

If this site is any indication, I agree. And I think this would be a more bearish place then normal! There seems to be someone posting a desire to buy about every day or so. And coming up with all kinds of highly questionable arguements as reasons to purchase.
I’ve been a landlord. It is more expensive and time consuming than you may think. Most of the posting I’ve seen on this site about costs are pretty far out of line with reality. And IMO seem more like justifications rather than business analysis.
I tend to agree with Bruce Norris when he said that the real deals will arrive when real estate is despised as an investment. And he was referring to his experience in the last CA down cycle of 1990 to 1996.

[peterb]

If this site is any indication, I agree. And I think this would be a more bearish place then normal! There seems to be someone posting a desire to buy about every day or so. And coming up with all kinds of highly questionable arguements as reasons to purchase.
I’ve been a landlord. It is more expensive and time consuming than you may think. Most of the posting I’ve seen on this site about costs are pretty far out of line with reality. And IMO seem more like justifications rather than business analysis.
I tend to agree with Bruce Norris when he said that the real deals will arrive when real estate is despised as an investment. And he was referring to his experience in the last CA down cycle of 1990 to 1996.

[peterb]

If this site is any indication, I agree. And I think this would be a more bearish place then normal! There seems to be someone posting a desire to buy about every day or so. And coming up with all kinds of highly questionable arguements as reasons to purchase.
I’ve been a landlord. It is more expensive and time consuming than you may think. Most of the posting I’ve seen on this site about costs are pretty far out of line with reality. And IMO seem more like justifications rather than business analysis.
I tend to agree with Bruce Norris when he said that the real deals will arrive when real estate is despised as an investment. And he was referring to his experience in the last CA down cycle of 1990 to 1996.

[peterb]

If this site is any indication, I agree. And I think this would be a more bearish place then normal! There seems to be someone posting a desire to buy about every day or so. And coming up with all kinds of highly questionable arguements as reasons to purchase.
I’ve been a landlord. It is more expensive and time consuming than you may think. Most of the posting I’ve seen on this site about costs are pretty far out of line with reality. And IMO seem more like justifications rather than business analysis.
I tend to agree with Bruce Norris when he said that the real deals will arrive when real estate is despised as an investment. And he was referring to his experience in the last CA down cycle of 1990 to 1996.

[Author]

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