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PerryChase
Participant23109VC for a lawyer working fro Homeland Security (if i remember well) you’re very indecisive.
Market psychology and Real Estate bubble history should tell you that we’re only at the beginning of the down cycle. There’ll be plenty of opportunities to buy later. It’s not going to be “different” this time. The only thing we don’t know is how low it’ll go.
When people say it’s different, it never is.
ParticipantGo ahead, BUY and feel positive all you want. No one is stopping you.
I have a long horizon (7 to 10 years from today before I buy anything) and I’m having fun watching the market. To me, watching the market psychology unfold is more fun than prime time TV. I don’t have any emotions at stake so it’s always fun to see others go emotional once in a while.
History is always a good guide. But we are condemned to repeat it (at least some of us).
ParticipantI call it the desirability index. If you’re lacking in an area, then compensate in a different area. If you lack looks, compensate with professional credentials (ie money). If you lack social skills and coolness, compensate with intellect, etc… But focus on maximizing your desirability rating. Kinda like the FICO score for dating. 🙂
ParticipantNot reasonable in my view. Looks like the people who earn the most have the longest most grueling commutes. Neighborhoods do not segregate by income that way because they evolve over time. Aside from income, people have non-job-related wealth that affect what they can afford.
If I lived in Orange County, I’d live somewhere in Irvine because it’s centrally located and close the employment centers. If I could afford it, I’d live in Newport Beach.
Using your numbers, here’s what I think is reasonable.
80k HH income – $250k home
100-120k – $350k home
north of 120k – $500k home
ParticipantFor those interested, here’s a list of projects Downtown.
http://www.ccdc.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/projects.home/category/residential
Participantno_such_reality, in your view, what is the downside of living in condos/townhouses?
My elderly relatives are living in SFRs but don’t need all the space and should move to condos to avoid the maintenance. I think it’s more fun for the elderly to live in an urban setting rather then being stuck in a boring mcmansion out in the burbs. It’s fine if you have family and kids. But what would an old person do all alone in an SFR? It might be nice for some relatives and friends to all live in a downtown building. That way they can be close to each other but still have privacy.
May 10, 2007 at 2:17 PM in reply to: So if the U.S. dollar is 10-15% lower than 2005, than does it mean…. #52364ParticipantI think that national security concerns require a fairly strong dollar. We can’t play the devaluation card like other countries or the Dollar would loose its reserve status. That would be a catastrophe.
We have a national interest in maintaining a fairly strong dollar. Remember America is the only country fairly insulated from currency movements because commodities such as oil are denominated in Dollars. Our corporate and government debts are also in dollars.
What caused the 1997 Asian financial crisis (and the crises in Mexico, and Latin America) was that their debts were in dollars but their currencies were crushed. Their debts doubled practically overnight.
I don’t think we can devalue our way of this mess. If anything we’ll push harder for China to revalue the Yuan.
ParticipantThanks for sharing Downtown SD information. It’s one of the markets I’m watching.
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Do you think that Downtown will become a good place for retired people? I mean aside from the premier buildings such as the Grande, Meridian, Harbor Club, near the water. Those buildings seem to be self-contained islands with not much interaction with the local community.
I wonder if a condo Solana Beach or Carlsbad would be better for old retired people. (I’m thinking for my elderly relatives in their 80s). Casa de Manana in La Jolla?
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Another area of concern is the development of Chula Vista and National City’s waterfronts. With those going, there’s going to be future competition for Downtown SD.
What about the airport relocation. Moving the airport would suddenly make plenty of land available for development.
May 10, 2007 at 10:31 AM in reply to: So if the U.S. dollar is 10-15% lower than 2005, than does it mean…. #52314ParticipantThat means that foreigners who own US assets are loosing their asses in America. They’ll likely demand higher interest rates to keep lending us money. So I think that will mean higher mortgage rates despite what the Federal Reserve might do. Do you remember when mortgage rates were falling as the Fed were hiking rates? The reverse might happen this time.
ParticipantI fully expect a 99 Ranch Market to open on the 56 Corridor to serve the Asian community from Carmel Valley to Rancho Bernardo. Have you guys been to Pearl Chinese Restaurant in RB? That place is packed.
That’ll happen during the downturn when a supermarket like Vons or Albertsons closes. When looking at Carmel Valley, think Irvine with more topography.
ParticipantMozilla Firefox 5 has spell check. I don’t make spelling mistakes anymore. It’s the grammar and syntax I worry about.
_A Way with Words_ is a fun show on KPBS radio.
I don’t think that foreclosures affect anything until they are sold again.
Participant4 year holding period is not long.
If i were you, I’d sell now. You can probably get out and make some money. If you take history as a guide, the last housing slump was from 1989 to 1996. I think that we are now at the equivalent of 1991. So, 4 years from now, you might end up selling your house at the worse possible time, substantially below 2004 purchase price. This slump may last longer than the last downturn.
Think about the carrying costs you’re paying now. You will not recoup them in appreciation. You might be better off, selling, renting, then moving on whatever destination you’re planning to move to.
ParticipantThe stats come from the quarterly employment survey that employers complete when they file their quarterly employment returns.
1) Illegals are not reported anywhere. Lots of of small contractors use them. Roubini reported that that remittances to Latin America slowed down sharply since May 2006 because Latino in USA are loosing jobs and need to build savings cushion.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/1909122) Independent contractors such as Realtors are not reported anywhere because they work for themselves. If you don’t get a W2 then you’re invisible.
3) Reduction in work hours is not reported anywhere as lost employment.
ParticipantEl Jefe & 4plexowner, you’re quite right. That’s what I noticed also.
Many of those flips are very badly done. Like someone said on a different thread, the improvements look good from 20ft away. Yes, those renovations are wasted money because any serious buyer/resident will end up redoing the cosmetic staging. Those top prices only work in a market full of greater fools.
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