[PerryChase]

Verano, Vicenza are junk. I went and looked that these places this afternoon. The remodel job is so badly done. Paint job on the old doors are smudgy! The pool fences are rusting through the paint that was quickly applied on! The workmanship is real shoddy.

I also looked at Regents (a much nicer project). They want $380,000-$400,000 for a 1-bedroom condo. They are also renting out the same units for $1500 per month. I would rather rent and save the difference.

Vicenza are leasing and selling at the same time. There are so many for rent signs on the project. I called some of the numbers and those investors want $1,300 for their 1 bedroom units. I had a feel that those rents are somewhat negotiable.

The saleswoman at a Verano even told me that prices will only go up so I need to jump in now! Give me a break!

The more I think about it, the more I feel that $150,000 to $180,000 for a 1-bedroom condo in UTC is more like it.

I for one hope for a big real estate crash to get the greed out of the market.

PS: I swear I hate the Hollywood regency style with the crown moulding.

[PerryChase]

I think that housing is such an emotionally charged issue. In America, people look down upon renters. For example it’s not a problem in Germany. What’s wrong with renting a home in an area you like?

I bought a 4-bedroom house years ago and my mortgage + HOA is $900. I did not sell because I need a place to live. But I could’ve sold and rented a home plus have money invested making more money for me. The house is now down in value. I don’t like living there anymore so I guess I’ll try to buy a downtown condo at a good price then wait for the next up cycle to sell my current house.

If your house goes down in value that’s opportunity lost. I wonder how people will feel when they’re under water.

[PerryChase]

Alan Gin is being circumspect. For him to come out and say that housing will drop significantly might cause panic. No one will fault him for being cautions on the down side. But if he becomes a party-pooper then people will be attacking him from every angle.

I feel that economic advice is like relationship advice. Never tell a person that his/her partner is no good. Even if you turn out to be right, you’ve lost a friend. Alan Gin needs his friends in the business community.

[PerryChase]

You have some good points qcomer. So it’s rent for now and buy when it makes sense from a cash-flow basis.

When do you think that UTC 1-bedroom condos will be down to 180k?

[PerryChase]

What is the profit margin on a condo conversion. I’m wondering how much leeway condo converters have to lower prices. I understand that each development is different. However, in general, if units don’t sell, the converters/builders have to lower prices in order to service their loans. We may come to a point where there’s a cascading downward effect if units don’t sell.

SD Realtor, thanks for your advice. I think that your cashflow analysis example is the best way to approach things right now.

I like the UTC area because it’s centrally a located area. Many don’t like it there because it’s full of transcient students who don’t really take care of their homes. Many of the rentals are trashed by students moving in and out.

Does anyone have suggestions on where to look for a 1-bedroom condo in a descent neighborhood?

Eventually, for my retirement, I want to get a 1-bedroom condo downtown (when prices are low) then rent out my 4 bedroom house in the suburb. Now that I’m older, I hate sprawl and the drive that goes with it.

[PerryChase]

I just got an email about Villa Vicenza. Seems like a one-bedroom starts in the mind 200s. I’ll tell my auntie to sign a one year lease then hope the prices goes down to $170,000. Do you think that would be a good time to buy then? Rent is about $1100+. Even at $170,000, the payments including tax and HOA would be more than buying. Since she’s elderly, I’m wondering if she should just rent and never buy. She’s old and has no interest in personalizing her home exactly to her liking.

[PerryChase]

My elderly auntie is widowed with no children. She sold her house and is looking to buy a one-bedroom UTC/La Jolla condo for retirement. She will live in San Diego 1/2 of the year, and travel the rest of the year. Any advice?

[PerryChase]

I believe it’s unquote.

[PerryChase]

Taiwanese are certainly not illegal immigrants — especially the ones who live in Irvine. The Taiwanese I know buy homes for their children to live in while they go to high-school (university-high) and college in California. They can afford (make sacrifices) for their children to get a good education.

It’s perfectly legal to buy a home in USA even if you’re not a permanent resident. For school, you just need to get a student visa. As long as you can pay the tuition, you can stay and study in America.

My guess is that immigrants, legal and otherwise, contribute a lot to escalating home prices. A good example is Miami where well-to-do latinos buy homes to shelter their money. San Diego has plenty of part-time Mexicans who own homes here. Without Mexican money (legal and illegal), San Diego would not be what it is today.

I feel this whole issue of immigration and English is such a red-herring. Rather than being afraid if immigrants, we should embrace them for enriching our culture.

[PerryChase]

Smaller house? Never!!

Unfortunately, I don’t think this will happens for some reasons:

1. People are getting bigger by the day. They need space to fit in their overstuffed furniture. The waistline problem is a worldwide phenomemon. I love clean small designs and I can’t find any small furniture. When I do, the prices are 2 to 3 times more. I’m single and I’d love to buy a nicely designed small refrigerator — there are none.

2. Many households comprise of roomates and extended family. They need room for those people.

3. Consumer society encourage people to buy junk. People need room to store their stuff.

4. Good design and good taste are beyond most people because our educational system does not teach us to think quality. Think of all the time people spend shopping for clothes. Do they look any better because they have so many clothes? Look at most people’s bathrooms. They have bottles, decorations and junk galore.

5. Keeping up with the Jones is part of our culture. More is better. I know people who move up to bigger houses just to impress their friends. The drive to outdo each other is what makes us happy.

I’d love to be proven wrong. But I’m afraid that we won’t return to sanity anytime in my lifetime.

[PerryChase]

Thanks for the facts SD Realtor. PS was promoting her friend Bob because she likes him. His listing and sales history clearly show that he’s not such a successful realtor after all. The fact that he sold a home to his daughter is very relevant to evaluating his sales leads.

[PerryChase]

I doubt that the Federal Reserve or the Federal government can do much to save housing for a confluence of reasons. The Fed can’t lower interest rates because were are so indebted to the world that we need higher rates to keep foreigners from pulling their money out of America.

We can’t do much more deficit spending to boost the economy because we are already, under a Republican administration, spending much more than we can afford. How much more deficit spending can we do?

The money pits that are Iraq and Afghanistan will continue to be there 5 to 10 years into the future.

American consumers are already so far in debt that they can’t borrow much more.

China, as a rising economy will compete with America as an investment destination. We will need to keep interest rates high to keep money coming here.

We need a strong dollar (i.e. high interest rates) to import ever more expensive oil.

We did not invest much in education in the last 20 years so future productivity improvements won’t be so technology driven. Remember the Internet comes from research that began in the 1950’s and 1960’s. I’m afraid that Chinese and Indian engineers will be able to match our own engineers so we won’t own future technologies and therefore won’t have competitive advantages.

As much as I hate to think about it, I’m afraid that Thomas Friedman is right. Unless we start investing in intellectual knowledge now, we stand to loose our technological and economic supremacy. If we are complacent, it’ll happen slowly and it’ll be too late to reverse course.

I would not be suprised to see mortgage rates go to 10% or the low teens within the next 10 years.

[PerryChase]

PS, I’m with you on the politics. I tried to refrain from posting because war and politics are so controversial and brings out the worst of everybody.

I want to offer you my support for your voice of reason. I just feel sad about the state of current affairs for I remember a time when America was viewed as the beacon of liberty around the world. I’m afraid that America is slowly turning into a theocracy.

By fighting the Communists in Vietnam, we lost treasure and countless human lives. By engaging Vietnam now, and promoting business and cultural contacts, we are benefiting the people of both countries. To me, that is the lesson to be learned from history.

I think that people would feel differently about the Iraq war if we still had the draft and their children were at risk of being called to war.

PS, let time be the judge. I’m confident that the voice of reason will prevail.

[PerryChase]

People are generally good if you treat them with respect. I’ve traveled to many places around the world and I find that to be true.

Americans are very insular and like to dismiss desent by saying “why are you living here and complaining” or “love it or leave it.” I’ve come across plenty of Americans who live in foreign countries because they could make a lot of money and have a nice life yet despise their host countries.

I hate to say it but we are big boys with big toys so just don’t mess with us. Unfortunately, life is not black and white.

I think that if we had better education and better exposure to other cultures we could manage foreign affairs a lot better.

My view is that we should put less resources into consumption (SUVs, big houses, big screen TVs, overstuffed furniture, etc…)and the military. We need more education and learning. If I had a teenager, I would send him on a trip around the world before I buy him a new Mustang.

Unfortunately, corporations want us to buy their junk.

[PerryChase]

Back to the original post on property tax, I beleive that elderly homeowners in California can most their old assessments with them when they move to a new home. I’m not sure the process of the doing that, but I think that’s what is happening when some people pay very little tax in expensive new neighborhood where prices couldn’t have been that low to begin with.

I don’t have any children nor did I buy an expensive house rencently so I can afford to travel the world. One reason Americans are not loved is because we are loud and obnoxious. Bravado is part of our culture but think of it in local terms. How would you like it if there were a foreign military presence in your town, a noise neighclub serving foreign troups in your neighborhood, and your daughters having sex with foreign servicemen for money?

Many point to Japan and Germany as successes of military occupation. However, I think that they are exceptions rather than the rule. Generally, history shows that occupation never works.

One of my best friends is a military pilot. Of course, he’s very pro-military but even he is hopeless about the situation in Iraq. We have a bet going… We’ll let history be the judge and in 10 years, I’ll get my free dinner on him. While there’s still debate over Vietnam, the preponderance of opinion is that was a very costly mistake.

Special interests is what keeps housing and the military very costly to all of us taxpayers.

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