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PerryChaseParticipant
Lets see. Countrywide just got $11.5 billion in financing from 40 banks.
Some questions I would ask are:
1) How much do they have in cash total including the $11.5 billion?
2) How much do they loan out each month?
3) How much are they able to sell on the secondary market?
4) At this rate, how long can they last as a going concern?
5) What did they do the shrink their business as the secondary market seizes up? They have 62,500 employees, up nearly 10% from last year.It’s clear the secondary market is not accepting junk loans anymore. That means that CFC has to underwrite quality loans in order to sell them (and perhaps include buyback covenants in case of default). That will mean they’ll have much less business. Unless we hear of large lay-offs, I don’t think that Countrywide can make it. They need to shrink their cost structure first and foremost.
PerryChaseParticipantLets see. Countrywide just got $11.5 billion in financing from 40 banks.
Some questions I would ask are:
1) How much do they have in cash total including the $11.5 billion?
2) How much do they loan out each month?
3) How much are they able to sell on the secondary market?
4) At this rate, how long can they last as a going concern?
5) What did they do the shrink their business as the secondary market seizes up? They have 62,500 employees, up nearly 10% from last year.It’s clear the secondary market is not accepting junk loans anymore. That means that CFC has to underwrite quality loans in order to sell them (and perhaps include buyback covenants in case of default). That will mean they’ll have much less business. Unless we hear of large lay-offs, I don’t think that Countrywide can make it. They need to shrink their cost structure first and foremost.
PerryChaseParticipantLets see. Countrywide just got $11.5 billion in financing from 40 banks.
Some questions I would ask are:
1) How much do they have in cash total including the $11.5 billion?
2) How much do they loan out each month?
3) How much are they able to sell on the secondary market?
4) At this rate, how long can they last as a going concern?
5) What did they do the shrink their business as the secondary market seizes up? They have 62,500 employees, up nearly 10% from last year.It’s clear the secondary market is not accepting junk loans anymore. That means that CFC has to underwrite quality loans in order to sell them (and perhaps include buyback covenants in case of default). That will mean they’ll have much less business. Unless we hear of large lay-offs, I don’t think that Countrywide can make it. They need to shrink their cost structure first and foremost.
PerryChaseParticipantNancy, it’s interesting to note that a year ago few on here anticipated the mortgage meltdown we are experiencing today. powayseller is one of the earliest to post about resets and new underwriting standards.
Back then most posters were still focused on “affordability” and jobs availability.We now know that funny money and lies drove this whole market. Countrywide going bankrupt would be the icing on the cake as far as I’m concerned.
PerryChaseParticipantNancy, it’s interesting to note that a year ago few on here anticipated the mortgage meltdown we are experiencing today. powayseller is one of the earliest to post about resets and new underwriting standards.
Back then most posters were still focused on “affordability” and jobs availability.We now know that funny money and lies drove this whole market. Countrywide going bankrupt would be the icing on the cake as far as I’m concerned.
PerryChaseParticipantNancy, it’s interesting to note that a year ago few on here anticipated the mortgage meltdown we are experiencing today. powayseller is one of the earliest to post about resets and new underwriting standards.
Back then most posters were still focused on “affordability” and jobs availability.We now know that funny money and lies drove this whole market. Countrywide going bankrupt would be the icing on the cake as far as I’m concerned.
PerryChaseParticipantDiego, people make predictions all the time — housing will rise 4%, Iraq will pay for itself, population will grow 2% etc…
When the preditions are not optimistic, you get all kinds of people coming out saying “don’t make predictions because you don’t know.”
I think human nature is such that we want to reject the bad news. Here’s an example:
Iraq will pay for itself = patriotic and All-American.
Thousands will get killed = defeatist and weak on terrorists.PerryChaseParticipantDiego, people make predictions all the time — housing will rise 4%, Iraq will pay for itself, population will grow 2% etc…
When the preditions are not optimistic, you get all kinds of people coming out saying “don’t make predictions because you don’t know.”
I think human nature is such that we want to reject the bad news. Here’s an example:
Iraq will pay for itself = patriotic and All-American.
Thousands will get killed = defeatist and weak on terrorists.PerryChaseParticipantDiego, people make predictions all the time — housing will rise 4%, Iraq will pay for itself, population will grow 2% etc…
When the preditions are not optimistic, you get all kinds of people coming out saying “don’t make predictions because you don’t know.”
I think human nature is such that we want to reject the bad news. Here’s an example:
Iraq will pay for itself = patriotic and All-American.
Thousands will get killed = defeatist and weak on terrorists.PerryChaseParticipantOzzie, if weren’t for the secondary market of mortgages, we wouldn’t have had the easy money that allowed families to get in over their heads. If lenders had to hang on to the loans they made, they would’ve been more careful with the underwriting. It’s a chicken and eggs issue.
While I think that this mortgage mess will lead to a recession, the American consumer is resilient and the general economy will recover much faster than housing.
PerryChaseParticipantOzzie, if weren’t for the secondary market of mortgages, we wouldn’t have had the easy money that allowed families to get in over their heads. If lenders had to hang on to the loans they made, they would’ve been more careful with the underwriting. It’s a chicken and eggs issue.
While I think that this mortgage mess will lead to a recession, the American consumer is resilient and the general economy will recover much faster than housing.
PerryChaseParticipantOzzie, if weren’t for the secondary market of mortgages, we wouldn’t have had the easy money that allowed families to get in over their heads. If lenders had to hang on to the loans they made, they would’ve been more careful with the underwriting. It’s a chicken and eggs issue.
While I think that this mortgage mess will lead to a recession, the American consumer is resilient and the general economy will recover much faster than housing.
PerryChaseParticipantOzzie, why would the MBS ratings even be a problem if, as you claim, the homeowners are still paying their mortgages? And how then do you explain the record foreclosures?
Do you think that foreclosures will only be small ripple in the economy?
I don’t know about the rest of the country, but San Diego will definitely have a painful recession.
PerryChaseParticipantOzzie, why would the MBS ratings even be a problem if, as you claim, the homeowners are still paying their mortgages? And how then do you explain the record foreclosures?
Do you think that foreclosures will only be small ripple in the economy?
I don’t know about the rest of the country, but San Diego will definitely have a painful recession.
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