[pemeliza]

I have been tracking 92106, 92107, 92103 pretty close. I get the feeling we are back to ’03 prices in these areas currently but of course there are exceptions. The high end is getting nailed this year. I also wish you would have included 92103 which I would put on par with the SD coastal zips.

I know it is a lot of work, but I wonder if you could extend your table back to ’03 prices? I also think we are going under the $400 a foot number of ’04 with higher volume so it would be nice to have ’03 to compare to.

[pemeliza]

I have been tracking 92106, 92107, 92103 pretty close. I get the feeling we are back to ’03 prices in these areas currently but of course there are exceptions. The high end is getting nailed this year. I also wish you would have included 92103 which I would put on par with the SD coastal zips.

I know it is a lot of work, but I wonder if you could extend your table back to ’03 prices? I also think we are going under the $400 a foot number of ’04 with higher volume so it would be nice to have ’03 to compare to.

[pemeliza]

I have been tracking 92106, 92107, 92103 pretty close. I get the feeling we are back to ’03 prices in these areas currently but of course there are exceptions. The high end is getting nailed this year. I also wish you would have included 92103 which I would put on par with the SD coastal zips.

I know it is a lot of work, but I wonder if you could extend your table back to ’03 prices? I also think we are going under the $400 a foot number of ’04 with higher volume so it would be nice to have ’03 to compare to.

[pemeliza]

This is a good debate to have and I suspect that the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. I think 50% off current levels is crazy but prices do seem to be still dropping.

If this listing closes at list, it will be at 48.5% above 1989 price and it looks like the place has had upgrades. That puts the appreciation rate at around 2% a year. In 1989 interest rates were roughly double today’s rates.

50% from this price will put it at 350k and that would be less than $100 a foot for Carlsbad at a time when interest rates are what 7-8% at the highest? I think at this price the downside on this property is 100k at worst which would probably be around 00-01 price or lower.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090061311-2849_Cazadero_Carlsbad_CA_92009

[pemeliza]

This is a good debate to have and I suspect that the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. I think 50% off current levels is crazy but prices do seem to be still dropping.

If this listing closes at list, it will be at 48.5% above 1989 price and it looks like the place has had upgrades. That puts the appreciation rate at around 2% a year. In 1989 interest rates were roughly double today’s rates.

50% from this price will put it at 350k and that would be less than $100 a foot for Carlsbad at a time when interest rates are what 7-8% at the highest? I think at this price the downside on this property is 100k at worst which would probably be around 00-01 price or lower.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090061311-2849_Cazadero_Carlsbad_CA_92009

[pemeliza]

This is a good debate to have and I suspect that the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. I think 50% off current levels is crazy but prices do seem to be still dropping.

If this listing closes at list, it will be at 48.5% above 1989 price and it looks like the place has had upgrades. That puts the appreciation rate at around 2% a year. In 1989 interest rates were roughly double today’s rates.

50% from this price will put it at 350k and that would be less than $100 a foot for Carlsbad at a time when interest rates are what 7-8% at the highest? I think at this price the downside on this property is 100k at worst which would probably be around 00-01 price or lower.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090061311-2849_Cazadero_Carlsbad_CA_92009

[pemeliza]

This is a good debate to have and I suspect that the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. I think 50% off current levels is crazy but prices do seem to be still dropping.

If this listing closes at list, it will be at 48.5% above 1989 price and it looks like the place has had upgrades. That puts the appreciation rate at around 2% a year. In 1989 interest rates were roughly double today’s rates.

50% from this price will put it at 350k and that would be less than $100 a foot for Carlsbad at a time when interest rates are what 7-8% at the highest? I think at this price the downside on this property is 100k at worst which would probably be around 00-01 price or lower.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090061311-2849_Cazadero_Carlsbad_CA_92009

[pemeliza]

This is a good debate to have and I suspect that the truth will lie somewhere in the middle. I think 50% off current levels is crazy but prices do seem to be still dropping.

If this listing closes at list, it will be at 48.5% above 1989 price and it looks like the place has had upgrades. That puts the appreciation rate at around 2% a year. In 1989 interest rates were roughly double today’s rates.

50% from this price will put it at 350k and that would be less than $100 a foot for Carlsbad at a time when interest rates are what 7-8% at the highest? I think at this price the downside on this property is 100k at worst which would probably be around 00-01 price or lower.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090061311-2849_Cazadero_Carlsbad_CA_92009

[pemeliza]

“I think prices will get cut in half again. ”

50% off of houses already 50% from peak would be 75% off peak. That would put us into mid 80’s to late 80’s nominal pricing. Recall at this time interest rates were 10+% and you could buy a nice home in La Jolla Farms for well under 1 million. I don’t see the government pulling their support out from under the mortgage market until the risk premimum has been severely diminished. I think this will happen when the economy is robust again at which point housing in SD will have stabilized and likely be moving up.

I do agree that the economy is awful and that the bubble has done incredible damage to the short term health of SD real estate. Personally, I could see most housing go to 00-01 nominal prices but not 87-88 nominal prices which are at the extreme end of some of the bearish views on the board.

I recently bought at probably an ’02 price so I full well expect that my house will drop in value before it starts to rise. For me it came down to really wanting a particular neighborhood that is hard to get into at my price point.

[pemeliza]

“I think prices will get cut in half again. ”

50% off of houses already 50% from peak would be 75% off peak. That would put us into mid 80’s to late 80’s nominal pricing. Recall at this time interest rates were 10+% and you could buy a nice home in La Jolla Farms for well under 1 million. I don’t see the government pulling their support out from under the mortgage market until the risk premimum has been severely diminished. I think this will happen when the economy is robust again at which point housing in SD will have stabilized and likely be moving up.

I do agree that the economy is awful and that the bubble has done incredible damage to the short term health of SD real estate. Personally, I could see most housing go to 00-01 nominal prices but not 87-88 nominal prices which are at the extreme end of some of the bearish views on the board.

I recently bought at probably an ’02 price so I full well expect that my house will drop in value before it starts to rise. For me it came down to really wanting a particular neighborhood that is hard to get into at my price point.

[pemeliza]

“I think prices will get cut in half again. ”

50% off of houses already 50% from peak would be 75% off peak. That would put us into mid 80’s to late 80’s nominal pricing. Recall at this time interest rates were 10+% and you could buy a nice home in La Jolla Farms for well under 1 million. I don’t see the government pulling their support out from under the mortgage market until the risk premimum has been severely diminished. I think this will happen when the economy is robust again at which point housing in SD will have stabilized and likely be moving up.

I do agree that the economy is awful and that the bubble has done incredible damage to the short term health of SD real estate. Personally, I could see most housing go to 00-01 nominal prices but not 87-88 nominal prices which are at the extreme end of some of the bearish views on the board.

I recently bought at probably an ’02 price so I full well expect that my house will drop in value before it starts to rise. For me it came down to really wanting a particular neighborhood that is hard to get into at my price point.

[pemeliza]

“I think prices will get cut in half again. ”

50% off of houses already 50% from peak would be 75% off peak. That would put us into mid 80’s to late 80’s nominal pricing. Recall at this time interest rates were 10+% and you could buy a nice home in La Jolla Farms for well under 1 million. I don’t see the government pulling their support out from under the mortgage market until the risk premimum has been severely diminished. I think this will happen when the economy is robust again at which point housing in SD will have stabilized and likely be moving up.

I do agree that the economy is awful and that the bubble has done incredible damage to the short term health of SD real estate. Personally, I could see most housing go to 00-01 nominal prices but not 87-88 nominal prices which are at the extreme end of some of the bearish views on the board.

I recently bought at probably an ’02 price so I full well expect that my house will drop in value before it starts to rise. For me it came down to really wanting a particular neighborhood that is hard to get into at my price point.

[pemeliza]

“I think prices will get cut in half again. ”

50% off of houses already 50% from peak would be 75% off peak. That would put us into mid 80’s to late 80’s nominal pricing. Recall at this time interest rates were 10+% and you could buy a nice home in La Jolla Farms for well under 1 million. I don’t see the government pulling their support out from under the mortgage market until the risk premimum has been severely diminished. I think this will happen when the economy is robust again at which point housing in SD will have stabilized and likely be moving up.

I do agree that the economy is awful and that the bubble has done incredible damage to the short term health of SD real estate. Personally, I could see most housing go to 00-01 nominal prices but not 87-88 nominal prices which are at the extreme end of some of the bearish views on the board.

I recently bought at probably an ’02 price so I full well expect that my house will drop in value before it starts to rise. For me it came down to really wanting a particular neighborhood that is hard to get into at my price point.

[pemeliza]

“This is Piggington circa 2005 all over again.”

Except prices are down 30-60% across the board and interest rates are lower for those with strong credit. These facts are working in favor of the market … the facts opposed to the market are high unemployment, distressed loans, stock market selloff from 14k, etc.

Right now it is a tug of war between these factors. This is not really in anyway that I can think of like 2005. Not near as much funny money out there for one thing. Also the high end is pretty much dead except for the absolute best properties and deals. Again unlike 2005 when they flew off the shelf at ridiculous valuations.

Some people think we are in a bubble just because they are not the only ones interested in buying a house in SD at these price levels.

I have to say that the markets I’m looking at regularly have definitely cooled down for the winter. Probably will see some very good deals close over the next few months.

[pemeliza]

“This is Piggington circa 2005 all over again.”

Except prices are down 30-60% across the board and interest rates are lower for those with strong credit. These facts are working in favor of the market … the facts opposed to the market are high unemployment, distressed loans, stock market selloff from 14k, etc.

Right now it is a tug of war between these factors. This is not really in anyway that I can think of like 2005. Not near as much funny money out there for one thing. Also the high end is pretty much dead except for the absolute best properties and deals. Again unlike 2005 when they flew off the shelf at ridiculous valuations.

Some people think we are in a bubble just because they are not the only ones interested in buying a house in SD at these price levels.

I have to say that the markets I’m looking at regularly have definitely cooled down for the winter. Probably will see some very good deals close over the next few months.

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