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PD
ParticipantThe bad news is piling up like poo on a pig farm. Yippee! Let’s make fertilizer!
June 11, 2007 at 6:35 PM in reply to: NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch #58504Participant20% is probably in the bag. A 60% drop seems improbable but is not impossible. New areas will be hit hard.
June 11, 2007 at 6:35 PM in reply to: NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch #58531Participant20% is probably in the bag. A 60% drop seems improbable but is not impossible. New areas will be hit hard.
ParticipantIn the absence of a boat, raft, log, or branch, paranoid has latched onto a twig in the hopes that it will save him from the rapids ahead.
ParticipantIn the absence of a boat, raft, log, or branch, paranoid has latched onto a twig in the hopes that it will save him from the rapids ahead.
ParticipantUm, yeah… you’ve missed something.
ParticipantUm, yeah… you’ve missed something.
ParticipantLS08 had good information to contribute but could not be civil. Worse, he was blind to his uncivility and then threw a tantrum. It is too bad because he could have been a valuable poster here.
ParticipantLS08 had good information to contribute but could not be civil. Worse, he was blind to his uncivility and then threw a tantrum. It is too bad because he could have been a valuable poster here.
ParticipantThis was posted by Average Joe on Calculated Risk:
I have a system on Zillow for checking “recently solds” I have outlined here before. In a certain area of Chula Vista (San Diego) I have been watching the growing blight and forclosures. There used to be 20-30 houses in these large newbuilt area that would come onto Zillow as recently solds every two weeks. This time only a dozen popped up. I drove by each one.
10 of the 12 were empty and obvious forclosures: the sale registered by zillow must be when the bank took possession since they still had lock boxes on the doors and the yard was dead.
Two were sold to residents living there for below Zillow price (but coincidentally they each had a forclosure right next door. One was bought in 05 for $949,000 and Zillow showed the newest sold price at $850,000. The house was very nice with a pool etc. That’s quite a haircut.
There are 2000 houses for sale in Chula Vista with about 100 a month selling now. That’s 20 months supply.
The builders appear to have accepted bankruptcy as their fate, as they had slowed down to try to meet a non-existent demand…but that didn’t work so now they are building away and the “available” signs throught the new neighborhoods soon will outnumber the occuppied houses.
ParticipantThis was posted by Average Joe on Calculated Risk:
I have a system on Zillow for checking “recently solds” I have outlined here before. In a certain area of Chula Vista (San Diego) I have been watching the growing blight and forclosures. There used to be 20-30 houses in these large newbuilt area that would come onto Zillow as recently solds every two weeks. This time only a dozen popped up. I drove by each one.
10 of the 12 were empty and obvious forclosures: the sale registered by zillow must be when the bank took possession since they still had lock boxes on the doors and the yard was dead.
Two were sold to residents living there for below Zillow price (but coincidentally they each had a forclosure right next door. One was bought in 05 for $949,000 and Zillow showed the newest sold price at $850,000. The house was very nice with a pool etc. That’s quite a haircut.
There are 2000 houses for sale in Chula Vista with about 100 a month selling now. That’s 20 months supply.
The builders appear to have accepted bankruptcy as their fate, as they had slowed down to try to meet a non-existent demand…but that didn’t work so now they are building away and the “available” signs throught the new neighborhoods soon will outnumber the occuppied houses.
ParticipantWhen we bought in the spring of 2002, we thought that we might be buying near the peak of the current cycle but after running many spreadsheet calculations, we thought we would be okay. After the crazy buying in the spring of 04, we KNEW we were getting close to the top. By fall of 04, we could hardly wait to list our house and cash in before things hit the skids. We were afraid that if there was a very sudden downturn, we could loose big before we could get it sold. As soon as my husband received his new set of orders, we listed our house and it closed escrow 2 months later in the spring of 05. Phew! We were soooo happy the day the money hit the bank. It turns out that we sold at or very near the peak in our neighborhood.
We’ve been renting since then. I really don’t like renting and can’t wait to have my own house again. I don’t think we will sell and rent again after the next cycle top. I’m a very unhappy renter who spends waaaay too much time looking at houses on ziprealty. I’m finding it hard to not buy when we can afford it. I have to run the numbers at least once a month in order to feel better. When you factor in the opportunity cost of the down payment, coupled with only a modest depreciation, it would be INSANE for us to buy right now.ParticipantWhen we bought in the spring of 2002, we thought that we might be buying near the peak of the current cycle but after running many spreadsheet calculations, we thought we would be okay. After the crazy buying in the spring of 04, we KNEW we were getting close to the top. By fall of 04, we could hardly wait to list our house and cash in before things hit the skids. We were afraid that if there was a very sudden downturn, we could loose big before we could get it sold. As soon as my husband received his new set of orders, we listed our house and it closed escrow 2 months later in the spring of 05. Phew! We were soooo happy the day the money hit the bank. It turns out that we sold at or very near the peak in our neighborhood.
We’ve been renting since then. I really don’t like renting and can’t wait to have my own house again. I don’t think we will sell and rent again after the next cycle top. I’m a very unhappy renter who spends waaaay too much time looking at houses on ziprealty. I’m finding it hard to not buy when we can afford it. I have to run the numbers at least once a month in order to feel better. When you factor in the opportunity cost of the down payment, coupled with only a modest depreciation, it would be INSANE for us to buy right now.ParticipantI’ve quit trying to make GDP calls. I was convinced that we would be in a recession by last Thanksgiving. Now I am Sergeant Shultz, “I know nothing!” Just pass me some strudel, please.
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