May sales as reported in the MLS

[Bugs]

Posted 06/03/2007

Time for my monthly look at the sales of attached and detached homes and condos being reported through the MLS:

May 2006 – 2,942 sales
May 2007 – 2,061 sales (so far), subject to updates by the late reporting agents over the next couple weeks.

Based on prior months this year the numbers for May will probably top 2,400 but probably won’t come close to 2,900. 2,450 / 2,942 = 83%

YTD 2006 (Jan-May) – 12,279 sales
YTD 2007 (Jan-May) – 10,346, maybe topping 10,800.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

The nasty trend becomes scary and even more obvious if we factor in 2005 (The Peak) numbers. The ostriches will hopefully suddenly wake up and get their heads out of the sand. Even Dr. Pangloss starts looking for a rental heavily landlord-subsidized. There are whispers that rents are trending down putting more specuvestors under pressure.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

The nasty trend becomes scary and even more obvious if we factor in 2005 (The Peak) numbers. The ostriches will hopefully suddenly wake up and get their heads out of the sand. Even Dr. Pangloss starts looking for a rental heavily landlord-subsidized. There are whispers that rents are trending down putting more specuvestors under pressure.

[latesummer2008]

It’s obvious, sales are trending down, and, inventory is trending up. Only one way for prices to go, DOWN. I just got back from surveying the market at about 10 open houses here on the Westside of LA. Very little traffic as I could see from the sign in sheets. Also realtors tend to be a little listless today. Contingent offers and escrows falling out, no pending offers on anything, and generally not very helpful, unless they think your a client. I like to gauge the market by open house activity. It was definitely quiet out there today. Plus it is looking like SIGN WARS out there. 95% of the corners (No exaggeration.) had at least 1 sign, often times 2,3 or 4. My sense is there aren’t many REAL buyers out there now, that the easy credit spigot has been turned off. Also, no real motivation to buy presently. Just buyers “kicking tires” so to speak, and checking prices. I have also noticed that the amount of sales comparables coming through on Zillow is becoming less and less each week. My sense is the market is withering..
I will be very curious to see numbers for May that include Volume and $/sqft. My sense is they will be down considerably.

Here is an interesting website that shows visually what is happening with 1)Inventory, 2)REOs, 3)Number of Sales

http://bubbletrackinggraphs.blogspot.com

The real story is, what is NOT selling, as opposed to what IS selling. Also, Volume change, as median prices are most likely skewed upward, with subprime meltdowns taking out the bottom tier.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

It’s obvious, sales are trending down, and, inventory is trending up. Only one way for prices to go, DOWN. I just got back from surveying the market at about 10 open houses here on the Westside of LA. Very little traffic as I could see from the sign in sheets. Also realtors tend to be a little listless today. Contingent offers and escrows falling out, no pending offers on anything, and generally not very helpful, unless they think your a client. I like to gauge the market by open house activity. It was definitely quiet out there today. Plus it is looking like SIGN WARS out there. 95% of the corners (No exaggeration.) had at least 1 sign, often times 2,3 or 4. My sense is there aren’t many REAL buyers out there now, that the easy credit spigot has been turned off. Also, no real motivation to buy presently. Just buyers “kicking tires” so to speak, and checking prices. I have also noticed that the amount of sales comparables coming through on Zillow is becoming less and less each week. My sense is the market is withering..
I will be very curious to see numbers for May that include Volume and $/sqft. My sense is they will be down considerably.

Here is an interesting website that shows visually what is happening with 1)Inventory, 2)REOs, 3)Number of Sales

http://bubbletrackinggraphs.blogspot.com

The real story is, what is NOT selling, as opposed to what IS selling. Also, Volume change, as median prices are most likely skewed upward, with subprime meltdowns taking out the bottom tier.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[gverdi]

Long time reader… first post.

Sales are dwindling faster then someone thinks. Even Carmel Valley-92130 (sdrealtor’s belleweather) it’s feeling the pain. Here are the number of monthly closed sales in 92130:

Jan. 2007: 57 sales
Feb. 2007: 72 sales
Mar. 2007: 137 sales
Apr. 2007: 74 sales

I’m waiting until all the May late reports get posted but if
somebody have the final May number for 92130 please post.

The “spring kick” it’s over!

[gverdi]

Long time reader… first post.

Sales are dwindling faster then someone thinks. Even Carmel Valley-92130 (sdrealtor’s belleweather) it’s feeling the pain. Here are the number of monthly closed sales in 92130:

Jan. 2007: 57 sales
Feb. 2007: 72 sales
Mar. 2007: 137 sales
Apr. 2007: 74 sales

I’m waiting until all the May late reports get posted but if
somebody have the final May number for 92130 please post.

The “spring kick” it’s over!

[CardiffBaseball]

For someone with access how would the April sales numbers compare to say Apr. 2006, or Apr. 2005?

[CardiffBaseball]

For someone with access how would the April sales numbers compare to say Apr. 2006, or Apr. 2005?

[gverdi]

CB, these are the April closed sales for previous years in 92130:

Apr. 2006: 121
Apr. 2005: 122
Apr. 2004: 54

The 2007 numbers also include new houses which were sold through MLS which was not the case when the market was hot and the speculators were scooping up the houses straight from the developer.

[gverdi]

CB, these are the April closed sales for previous years in 92130:

Apr. 2006: 121
Apr. 2005: 122
Apr. 2004: 54

The 2007 numbers also include new houses which were sold through MLS which was not the case when the market was hot and the speculators were scooping up the houses straight from the developer.

[gverdi]

Deleted

[gverdi]

Deleted

[CAwireman]

(April closed sales for previous years in 92130)

So, compiling the 4 years it looks like:

Apr. 2007: 74
Apr. 2006: 121
Apr. 2005: 122
Apr. 2004: 54

Looks like a bubble in 05/06!

HiggyBaby

[CAwireman]

(April closed sales for previous years in 92130)

So, compiling the 4 years it looks like:

Apr. 2007: 74
Apr. 2006: 121
Apr. 2005: 122
Apr. 2004: 54

Looks like a bubble in 05/06!

HiggyBaby

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