Dow looses over 400 points in 3 days?

[no_such_reality]

The dow moves 100 points and everybody freaks out. It’s noise. The dow was at 13,700. That 300 drop is less than 3%. That 3% drop is after a massive run-up. It’s a highly liquid market.

[no_such_reality]

The dow moves 100 points and everybody freaks out. It’s noise. The dow was at 13,700. That 300 drop is less than 3%. That 3% drop is after a massive run-up. It’s a highly liquid market.

[blahblahblah]

Also, a falling dollar will be good news for US exporters, so I’m not sure there’s a lot of correlation or causation between the weakening dollar and any (possible) slowdown in the market.

[blahblahblah]

Also, a falling dollar will be good news for US exporters, so I’m not sure there’s a lot of correlation or causation between the weakening dollar and any (possible) slowdown in the market.

[Anonymous]

Mad Monk, I did not know that, about the ‘less than’ sign. Thank you, sir.

HWG, you say greater than 2% GDP growth in Q2; I say less than 1% GDP growth in Q2. Wager of one (inexpensive) beer at the next meetup?

[Anonymous]

Mad Monk, I did not know that, about the ‘less than’ sign. Thank you, sir.

HWG, you say greater than 2% GDP growth in Q2; I say less than 1% GDP growth in Q2. Wager of one (inexpensive) beer at the next meetup?

[HereWeGo]

Sure thing.

[HereWeGo]

Sure thing.

[PD]

I’ve quit trying to make GDP calls. I was convinced that we would be in a recession by last Thanksgiving. Now I am Sergeant Shultz, “I know nothing!” Just pass me some strudel, please.

[PD]

I’ve quit trying to make GDP calls. I was convinced that we would be in a recession by last Thanksgiving. Now I am Sergeant Shultz, “I know nothing!” Just pass me some strudel, please.

[HereWeGo]

Fair warning, though:

I’m cheating a bit.

[HereWeGo]

Fair warning, though:

I’m cheating a bit.

[Anonymous]

No problem, HWG: ‘If you’re not cheating, you’re not trying’ (your best).

Ben, Bush, and Wall Street are on your side; I rely on my own arithmetic. I’ll produce my specific prediction after the May personal consumption data comes out in late June. But, based on the weak April and May retail sales, I feel comfortable that things will not be pretty.

[Anonymous]

No problem, HWG: ‘If you’re not cheating, you’re not trying’ (your best).

Ben, Bush, and Wall Street are on your side; I rely on my own arithmetic. I’ll produce my specific prediction after the May personal consumption data comes out in late June. But, based on the weak April and May retail sales, I feel comfortable that things will not be pretty.

[one_muggle]

After the run-up we’ve seen, 400 pts is a blip. To be worrisome (or a great opportunity) we need 1-2k drop.

I was more of a secular bear on the Dow until I spent more time looking at the internationl reach of most significant Dow companies. (I spend more time looking at small caps, and let my mutual funds handle the Large and Mids.) I am still a short-term (6 months) bear, but my longer term outlook has actually improved.
Take Coke, for example: It has huge market share in Europe. With a decent economy there, and a falling dollar, Coke is making more dollars for every Euro they get. As the dollar weakens, the international sales of Coke become more profitable AND people in the US are not likely to become so destitute as to cut out buying a Coke! In fact, the less money people make, the more likely they are to buy fast food (and a Coke). (True also for the latest round of newly minted soon-to-be-citizens-if-congress-gets-its-way. With a healthy run-up this year and a fair dividend, there are still profitable investments in the Dow. Ditto JNJ, Bud, P&G. Traditional beer and band-aid stocks.
Though I can see as much as a 1500 point drop as very plausible over the next year, over the long term I think the Dow and other indices will do OK. This is not (yet) an equity buuble anything like the 1999-2001 tech bust.
There may be better ways to make money out there, but IMHO stocks will not crash long-term alongside housing.
There is too much private money out there looking for a home–China’s investement fund is reported to have nearly $750B cash. As small cap and housing (US and Europe) take a dive, that money will seek security somewhere–like Blue Chips.
And that prediction has my 110% moneyback guarantee!!! (I guess you get what you pay for…) ;^)

-one muggle

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