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patientrenter
Participant[quote=contrarian][quote=contrarian]The top ten ways to know that the bottom is here:
(Drum roll please)
10. No sellers are offering “free” plasma TV’s — just lower prices.
9. Buyers with bad credit are called renters.
8. RE professionals act professionally.
7. Time magazine’s headline “Housing will never recover”.
6. Your waitress and your barber no longer brag about how they made a fortune in real estate.
5. People buy houses to actually live in them.
4. US Attorney convicts Angelo Mozilo.
3. Democrats establish a commission to “cure” the housing problem. Republicans issue a press release stating that there may be a housing bubble. Libertarians are busy building bomb shelters.
2. No more bombastic ads for get rich quick real estate seminars.
And, the number one way to know that the bottom is here: all the Piggs have bought their dream houses!
[/quote]We may be close!!
I’m still waiting for #4 and #1. (Forget about #8 — it will never happen. What was I thinking?)[/quote]
Very enjoyable post, from the distant mists of history, contrarian. I see #3 is not happening either. Instead, pols from both parties have lined up behind the greater govt efforts to pour money into housing in a powerful scheme to keep prices high. Consider all the expanded GNMA, FHA, FNMA, FHLMC, FDIC etc programs, and then add the mortgage loan interest deduction and relief from capital gains taxes on house price gains, and the Fed’s bias to lower interest rates….
It actually isn’t necessary for a good economy to have ANY of these ridiculous supports for home prices. Germany (post-WW2) is a decent example. Whatever else you may think of Germany, it’s hardly an economic or political basket-case.
Participant[quote=contrarian][quote=contrarian]The top ten ways to know that the bottom is here:
(Drum roll please)
10. No sellers are offering “free” plasma TV’s — just lower prices.
9. Buyers with bad credit are called renters.
8. RE professionals act professionally.
7. Time magazine’s headline “Housing will never recover”.
6. Your waitress and your barber no longer brag about how they made a fortune in real estate.
5. People buy houses to actually live in them.
4. US Attorney convicts Angelo Mozilo.
3. Democrats establish a commission to “cure” the housing problem. Republicans issue a press release stating that there may be a housing bubble. Libertarians are busy building bomb shelters.
2. No more bombastic ads for get rich quick real estate seminars.
And, the number one way to know that the bottom is here: all the Piggs have bought their dream houses!
[/quote]We may be close!!
I’m still waiting for #4 and #1. (Forget about #8 — it will never happen. What was I thinking?)[/quote]
Very enjoyable post, from the distant mists of history, contrarian. I see #3 is not happening either. Instead, pols from both parties have lined up behind the greater govt efforts to pour money into housing in a powerful scheme to keep prices high. Consider all the expanded GNMA, FHA, FNMA, FHLMC, FDIC etc programs, and then add the mortgage loan interest deduction and relief from capital gains taxes on house price gains, and the Fed’s bias to lower interest rates….
It actually isn’t necessary for a good economy to have ANY of these ridiculous supports for home prices. Germany (post-WW2) is a decent example. Whatever else you may think of Germany, it’s hardly an economic or political basket-case.
Participant[quote=contrarian][quote=contrarian]The top ten ways to know that the bottom is here:
(Drum roll please)
10. No sellers are offering “free” plasma TV’s — just lower prices.
9. Buyers with bad credit are called renters.
8. RE professionals act professionally.
7. Time magazine’s headline “Housing will never recover”.
6. Your waitress and your barber no longer brag about how they made a fortune in real estate.
5. People buy houses to actually live in them.
4. US Attorney convicts Angelo Mozilo.
3. Democrats establish a commission to “cure” the housing problem. Republicans issue a press release stating that there may be a housing bubble. Libertarians are busy building bomb shelters.
2. No more bombastic ads for get rich quick real estate seminars.
And, the number one way to know that the bottom is here: all the Piggs have bought their dream houses!
[/quote]We may be close!!
I’m still waiting for #4 and #1. (Forget about #8 — it will never happen. What was I thinking?)[/quote]
Very enjoyable post, from the distant mists of history, contrarian. I see #3 is not happening either. Instead, pols from both parties have lined up behind the greater govt efforts to pour money into housing in a powerful scheme to keep prices high. Consider all the expanded GNMA, FHA, FNMA, FHLMC, FDIC etc programs, and then add the mortgage loan interest deduction and relief from capital gains taxes on house price gains, and the Fed’s bias to lower interest rates….
It actually isn’t necessary for a good economy to have ANY of these ridiculous supports for home prices. Germany (post-WW2) is a decent example. Whatever else you may think of Germany, it’s hardly an economic or political basket-case.
April 26, 2009 at 1:14 PM in reply to: This never ends : “CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up” #387510Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=paranoid]patientrenter, you draw your conclusion too quickly by assuming that hyperinflation is or will soon occur.
What I’m seeing instead is DEflation worldwide, not inflation, nor hyperinflation. I believe in short term, more DEflation will occur. We will have plain time to see housing price drop to a much lower level before it starts to increase again. Sure US is not Japan. But there are a lot of similarities.
I believe most people, including most piggs, will be surprised by how low the housing price will go.[/quote]
The govt is definitely trying to turn us into a Japan.
[/quote]I hope what I said was clear about long term versus short term: In the short term, home prices are dropping due to market forces, and that is only slowly being matched by govt free money tactics. So prices will drop more. But in the long run, our govt (driven by the perceived interests of the majority of voters) will drive for inflation, and has the tools to achieve it. For the full story told more eloquently, just look up Rich’s article about why we will not be going down the Japan road.
But I recognize all this is guesswork, and there is a difference of opinion. I like the Pigg group, and I am just trying to make sure not too many are blindsided by what I consider as the more likely outcome. Many of you are in the IT field, and have been on the sharp end of wage competition from newly emerging countries, and that produced relentless downward pressure on real and dollar incomes. For some younger folks for whom that phase of our economic history dominates their personal experience, it probably seems that no other environment is possible. But the truth is that no environment lasts unchanged forever. The pressure on real wages will probably continue, but inflation will devalue the dollar, and that will mean the impact on nominal wages will be less.
An international company deciding where to get its supply of programmers doesn’t give a *** what the nominal dollar wages are – all that matters is the relative cost adjusted for currency exchange rates. If inflation caused the dollar to lose half its real purchasing power tomorrow, along with half its value relative to other currencies, then US programmers could be paid twice as much and leave the companies using them in exactly the same position they are today when deciding which countries to use. I know, because I have to look at making those decisions for my own IT dept.
April 26, 2009 at 1:14 PM in reply to: This never ends : “CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up” #387780Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=paranoid]patientrenter, you draw your conclusion too quickly by assuming that hyperinflation is or will soon occur.
What I’m seeing instead is DEflation worldwide, not inflation, nor hyperinflation. I believe in short term, more DEflation will occur. We will have plain time to see housing price drop to a much lower level before it starts to increase again. Sure US is not Japan. But there are a lot of similarities.
I believe most people, including most piggs, will be surprised by how low the housing price will go.[/quote]
The govt is definitely trying to turn us into a Japan.
[/quote]I hope what I said was clear about long term versus short term: In the short term, home prices are dropping due to market forces, and that is only slowly being matched by govt free money tactics. So prices will drop more. But in the long run, our govt (driven by the perceived interests of the majority of voters) will drive for inflation, and has the tools to achieve it. For the full story told more eloquently, just look up Rich’s article about why we will not be going down the Japan road.
But I recognize all this is guesswork, and there is a difference of opinion. I like the Pigg group, and I am just trying to make sure not too many are blindsided by what I consider as the more likely outcome. Many of you are in the IT field, and have been on the sharp end of wage competition from newly emerging countries, and that produced relentless downward pressure on real and dollar incomes. For some younger folks for whom that phase of our economic history dominates their personal experience, it probably seems that no other environment is possible. But the truth is that no environment lasts unchanged forever. The pressure on real wages will probably continue, but inflation will devalue the dollar, and that will mean the impact on nominal wages will be less.
An international company deciding where to get its supply of programmers doesn’t give a *** what the nominal dollar wages are – all that matters is the relative cost adjusted for currency exchange rates. If inflation caused the dollar to lose half its real purchasing power tomorrow, along with half its value relative to other currencies, then US programmers could be paid twice as much and leave the companies using them in exactly the same position they are today when deciding which countries to use. I know, because I have to look at making those decisions for my own IT dept.
April 26, 2009 at 1:14 PM in reply to: This never ends : “CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up” #387980Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=paranoid]patientrenter, you draw your conclusion too quickly by assuming that hyperinflation is or will soon occur.
What I’m seeing instead is DEflation worldwide, not inflation, nor hyperinflation. I believe in short term, more DEflation will occur. We will have plain time to see housing price drop to a much lower level before it starts to increase again. Sure US is not Japan. But there are a lot of similarities.
I believe most people, including most piggs, will be surprised by how low the housing price will go.[/quote]
The govt is definitely trying to turn us into a Japan.
[/quote]I hope what I said was clear about long term versus short term: In the short term, home prices are dropping due to market forces, and that is only slowly being matched by govt free money tactics. So prices will drop more. But in the long run, our govt (driven by the perceived interests of the majority of voters) will drive for inflation, and has the tools to achieve it. For the full story told more eloquently, just look up Rich’s article about why we will not be going down the Japan road.
But I recognize all this is guesswork, and there is a difference of opinion. I like the Pigg group, and I am just trying to make sure not too many are blindsided by what I consider as the more likely outcome. Many of you are in the IT field, and have been on the sharp end of wage competition from newly emerging countries, and that produced relentless downward pressure on real and dollar incomes. For some younger folks for whom that phase of our economic history dominates their personal experience, it probably seems that no other environment is possible. But the truth is that no environment lasts unchanged forever. The pressure on real wages will probably continue, but inflation will devalue the dollar, and that will mean the impact on nominal wages will be less.
An international company deciding where to get its supply of programmers doesn’t give a *** what the nominal dollar wages are – all that matters is the relative cost adjusted for currency exchange rates. If inflation caused the dollar to lose half its real purchasing power tomorrow, along with half its value relative to other currencies, then US programmers could be paid twice as much and leave the companies using them in exactly the same position they are today when deciding which countries to use. I know, because I have to look at making those decisions for my own IT dept.
April 26, 2009 at 1:14 PM in reply to: This never ends : “CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up” #388035Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=paranoid]patientrenter, you draw your conclusion too quickly by assuming that hyperinflation is or will soon occur.
What I’m seeing instead is DEflation worldwide, not inflation, nor hyperinflation. I believe in short term, more DEflation will occur. We will have plain time to see housing price drop to a much lower level before it starts to increase again. Sure US is not Japan. But there are a lot of similarities.
I believe most people, including most piggs, will be surprised by how low the housing price will go.[/quote]
The govt is definitely trying to turn us into a Japan.
[/quote]I hope what I said was clear about long term versus short term: In the short term, home prices are dropping due to market forces, and that is only slowly being matched by govt free money tactics. So prices will drop more. But in the long run, our govt (driven by the perceived interests of the majority of voters) will drive for inflation, and has the tools to achieve it. For the full story told more eloquently, just look up Rich’s article about why we will not be going down the Japan road.
But I recognize all this is guesswork, and there is a difference of opinion. I like the Pigg group, and I am just trying to make sure not too many are blindsided by what I consider as the more likely outcome. Many of you are in the IT field, and have been on the sharp end of wage competition from newly emerging countries, and that produced relentless downward pressure on real and dollar incomes. For some younger folks for whom that phase of our economic history dominates their personal experience, it probably seems that no other environment is possible. But the truth is that no environment lasts unchanged forever. The pressure on real wages will probably continue, but inflation will devalue the dollar, and that will mean the impact on nominal wages will be less.
An international company deciding where to get its supply of programmers doesn’t give a *** what the nominal dollar wages are – all that matters is the relative cost adjusted for currency exchange rates. If inflation caused the dollar to lose half its real purchasing power tomorrow, along with half its value relative to other currencies, then US programmers could be paid twice as much and leave the companies using them in exactly the same position they are today when deciding which countries to use. I know, because I have to look at making those decisions for my own IT dept.
April 26, 2009 at 1:14 PM in reply to: This never ends : “CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up” #388173Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=paranoid]patientrenter, you draw your conclusion too quickly by assuming that hyperinflation is or will soon occur.
What I’m seeing instead is DEflation worldwide, not inflation, nor hyperinflation. I believe in short term, more DEflation will occur. We will have plain time to see housing price drop to a much lower level before it starts to increase again. Sure US is not Japan. But there are a lot of similarities.
I believe most people, including most piggs, will be surprised by how low the housing price will go.[/quote]
The govt is definitely trying to turn us into a Japan.
[/quote]I hope what I said was clear about long term versus short term: In the short term, home prices are dropping due to market forces, and that is only slowly being matched by govt free money tactics. So prices will drop more. But in the long run, our govt (driven by the perceived interests of the majority of voters) will drive for inflation, and has the tools to achieve it. For the full story told more eloquently, just look up Rich’s article about why we will not be going down the Japan road.
But I recognize all this is guesswork, and there is a difference of opinion. I like the Pigg group, and I am just trying to make sure not too many are blindsided by what I consider as the more likely outcome. Many of you are in the IT field, and have been on the sharp end of wage competition from newly emerging countries, and that produced relentless downward pressure on real and dollar incomes. For some younger folks for whom that phase of our economic history dominates their personal experience, it probably seems that no other environment is possible. But the truth is that no environment lasts unchanged forever. The pressure on real wages will probably continue, but inflation will devalue the dollar, and that will mean the impact on nominal wages will be less.
An international company deciding where to get its supply of programmers doesn’t give a *** what the nominal dollar wages are – all that matters is the relative cost adjusted for currency exchange rates. If inflation caused the dollar to lose half its real purchasing power tomorrow, along with half its value relative to other currencies, then US programmers could be paid twice as much and leave the companies using them in exactly the same position they are today when deciding which countries to use. I know, because I have to look at making those decisions for my own IT dept.
April 26, 2009 at 11:28 AM in reply to: This never ends : “CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up” #387495ParticipantI am glad to see Piggs are beginning to see what’s happening:
1. Government is committed to do “whatever it takes” to allow homeowners to hold onto their massive capital gains accumulated since the early 1980’s.
2. In the short run, the levers that will be pulled all involve generating lots of easy (taxpayer-funded) money for people who buy overpriced homes.
3. In the long run, the easy money levers will generate enough inflation to sustain existing nominal home prices that are unsustainable in real terms. Our govt will make sure this becomes well established before “realizing” that inflation is a menace once again and starts, very slowly and ineffectually for many years, fighting it.
Who gains and who loses? Well, people who bought their first home a long time ago are going to do well. The more expensive a home they bought, and the more borrowed money they used, the better off they will be. People who bought more recently are not going to do well or terribly badly either – they will get no great gains and no great losses, either.
People who buy other real assets without leverage will do neither all that well nor really badly. Inflation will be neutral to them, except that it will increase their tax bill on phantom inflation-driven nominal price gains.
People who buy real assets using borrowed money at fixed interest rates will do OK, as they get to default, in effect, on part of their debt due to inflation.
People who save in banks and other fixed dollar instruments will lose – big. Every period of history in unique in some respects, but I’d encourage all Piggs (many of whom are too young to remember the 1970s’) to become familiar with the financial history of the 1970’s and later. We might be about to re-live some of what happened then.
April 26, 2009 at 11:28 AM in reply to: This never ends : “CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up” #387766ParticipantI am glad to see Piggs are beginning to see what’s happening:
1. Government is committed to do “whatever it takes” to allow homeowners to hold onto their massive capital gains accumulated since the early 1980’s.
2. In the short run, the levers that will be pulled all involve generating lots of easy (taxpayer-funded) money for people who buy overpriced homes.
3. In the long run, the easy money levers will generate enough inflation to sustain existing nominal home prices that are unsustainable in real terms. Our govt will make sure this becomes well established before “realizing” that inflation is a menace once again and starts, very slowly and ineffectually for many years, fighting it.
Who gains and who loses? Well, people who bought their first home a long time ago are going to do well. The more expensive a home they bought, and the more borrowed money they used, the better off they will be. People who bought more recently are not going to do well or terribly badly either – they will get no great gains and no great losses, either.
People who buy other real assets without leverage will do neither all that well nor really badly. Inflation will be neutral to them, except that it will increase their tax bill on phantom inflation-driven nominal price gains.
People who buy real assets using borrowed money at fixed interest rates will do OK, as they get to default, in effect, on part of their debt due to inflation.
People who save in banks and other fixed dollar instruments will lose – big. Every period of history in unique in some respects, but I’d encourage all Piggs (many of whom are too young to remember the 1970s’) to become familiar with the financial history of the 1970’s and later. We might be about to re-live some of what happened then.
April 26, 2009 at 11:28 AM in reply to: This never ends : “CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up” #387965ParticipantI am glad to see Piggs are beginning to see what’s happening:
1. Government is committed to do “whatever it takes” to allow homeowners to hold onto their massive capital gains accumulated since the early 1980’s.
2. In the short run, the levers that will be pulled all involve generating lots of easy (taxpayer-funded) money for people who buy overpriced homes.
3. In the long run, the easy money levers will generate enough inflation to sustain existing nominal home prices that are unsustainable in real terms. Our govt will make sure this becomes well established before “realizing” that inflation is a menace once again and starts, very slowly and ineffectually for many years, fighting it.
Who gains and who loses? Well, people who bought their first home a long time ago are going to do well. The more expensive a home they bought, and the more borrowed money they used, the better off they will be. People who bought more recently are not going to do well or terribly badly either – they will get no great gains and no great losses, either.
People who buy other real assets without leverage will do neither all that well nor really badly. Inflation will be neutral to them, except that it will increase their tax bill on phantom inflation-driven nominal price gains.
People who buy real assets using borrowed money at fixed interest rates will do OK, as they get to default, in effect, on part of their debt due to inflation.
People who save in banks and other fixed dollar instruments will lose – big. Every period of history in unique in some respects, but I’d encourage all Piggs (many of whom are too young to remember the 1970s’) to become familiar with the financial history of the 1970’s and later. We might be about to re-live some of what happened then.
April 26, 2009 at 11:28 AM in reply to: This never ends : “CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up” #388020ParticipantI am glad to see Piggs are beginning to see what’s happening:
1. Government is committed to do “whatever it takes” to allow homeowners to hold onto their massive capital gains accumulated since the early 1980’s.
2. In the short run, the levers that will be pulled all involve generating lots of easy (taxpayer-funded) money for people who buy overpriced homes.
3. In the long run, the easy money levers will generate enough inflation to sustain existing nominal home prices that are unsustainable in real terms. Our govt will make sure this becomes well established before “realizing” that inflation is a menace once again and starts, very slowly and ineffectually for many years, fighting it.
Who gains and who loses? Well, people who bought their first home a long time ago are going to do well. The more expensive a home they bought, and the more borrowed money they used, the better off they will be. People who bought more recently are not going to do well or terribly badly either – they will get no great gains and no great losses, either.
People who buy other real assets without leverage will do neither all that well nor really badly. Inflation will be neutral to them, except that it will increase their tax bill on phantom inflation-driven nominal price gains.
People who buy real assets using borrowed money at fixed interest rates will do OK, as they get to default, in effect, on part of their debt due to inflation.
People who save in banks and other fixed dollar instruments will lose – big. Every period of history in unique in some respects, but I’d encourage all Piggs (many of whom are too young to remember the 1970s’) to become familiar with the financial history of the 1970’s and later. We might be about to re-live some of what happened then.
April 26, 2009 at 11:28 AM in reply to: This never ends : “CA Foreclosure Prevention Act Coming Up” #388158ParticipantI am glad to see Piggs are beginning to see what’s happening:
1. Government is committed to do “whatever it takes” to allow homeowners to hold onto their massive capital gains accumulated since the early 1980’s.
2. In the short run, the levers that will be pulled all involve generating lots of easy (taxpayer-funded) money for people who buy overpriced homes.
3. In the long run, the easy money levers will generate enough inflation to sustain existing nominal home prices that are unsustainable in real terms. Our govt will make sure this becomes well established before “realizing” that inflation is a menace once again and starts, very slowly and ineffectually for many years, fighting it.
Who gains and who loses? Well, people who bought their first home a long time ago are going to do well. The more expensive a home they bought, and the more borrowed money they used, the better off they will be. People who bought more recently are not going to do well or terribly badly either – they will get no great gains and no great losses, either.
People who buy other real assets without leverage will do neither all that well nor really badly. Inflation will be neutral to them, except that it will increase their tax bill on phantom inflation-driven nominal price gains.
People who buy real assets using borrowed money at fixed interest rates will do OK, as they get to default, in effect, on part of their debt due to inflation.
People who save in banks and other fixed dollar instruments will lose – big. Every period of history in unique in some respects, but I’d encourage all Piggs (many of whom are too young to remember the 1970s’) to become familiar with the financial history of the 1970’s and later. We might be about to re-live some of what happened then.
April 24, 2009 at 5:48 PM in reply to: OT: There’s never been a better time to buy a GM car…. #386917Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook][quote=AN][quote=Hatfield]
Yawn. Skidpad is just one test. Like 0-60, it doesn’t mean that much in isolation. Slalom time is a better measure. Or lap time. Even better yet, just drive both cars. I did. Did you? I bought the 911. Haven’t regretted it.[/quote]
If the 911 was branded as a Ford, would you still buy it? For the price of a loaded Z06, all you can get is a base 911 w/ no option. Z06 would KILL the 911 in ANY performance test you want to throw at it. The only test it’ll fail in is the interior quality and brand snobbery.[/quote]AN: Bingo. I’ve also heard your hairpiece fits better in a Porschie and your Rolex looks shinier. Something to do with the way the light hits that superior German workmanship. Sheesh. Well, this is why they pay those clowns on Madison Avenue all that money: Sell the status, not the product.
[/quote]My brother-in-law is a retired (German) engineer for a German car company. Buys mostly Toyotas for himself, but does wax lyrical about the quality of “what you can’t see” in some of the better German marques. I’m sure the GM guys do the same.
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