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one_muggle
ParticipantThough I agree oil/energy is and will continue to be a problem, I take issue with all the peak-oil gloom and doom.
The very simplified “Peak oil” predictions all assume that there is a somewhat fixed amount of oil ready to be pumped, but that is not true. Even ignoring future discoveries, the amount of oil that can be pumped depends on the price of oil. As the value of oil increases, it becomes more feasible to pump out the hard-to-get (and thus more expensive) stuff. Also, it becomes more attractive to refine the high-sulfur petroleum–again, since this stuff is harder to refine, it is more expensive. The available oil in the Hubbert curve assumes that only a fraction of the oil is gettable–OK that is not really a word…
Somewhat perversely, high oil prices makes more oil accessible–not what the greenies had hoped, I expect. Maybe they should spend a little more time in science class and less time reading Chomsky. ;^)
Last I checked, $120 oil makes wind economically practical–don’t recall the number for solar. I think it might be around $75 in the SW and $150 in the NE, but I’m not sure. I do know that a commercial solar concentrator is going on-line soon in the SW (Arizona, I think)–something Junction… that will be interesting.
Either way, it’s sure to kick the crap out of the long distance commuter–probably good for everyone, in the long run. Short run… well that’s gonna suck for them.-one muggle
ParticipantThough I agree oil/energy is and will continue to be a problem, I take issue with all the peak-oil gloom and doom.
The very simplified “Peak oil” predictions all assume that there is a somewhat fixed amount of oil ready to be pumped, but that is not true. Even ignoring future discoveries, the amount of oil that can be pumped depends on the price of oil. As the value of oil increases, it becomes more feasible to pump out the hard-to-get (and thus more expensive) stuff. Also, it becomes more attractive to refine the high-sulfur petroleum–again, since this stuff is harder to refine, it is more expensive. The available oil in the Hubbert curve assumes that only a fraction of the oil is gettable–OK that is not really a word…
Somewhat perversely, high oil prices makes more oil accessible–not what the greenies had hoped, I expect. Maybe they should spend a little more time in science class and less time reading Chomsky. ;^)
Last I checked, $120 oil makes wind economically practical–don’t recall the number for solar. I think it might be around $75 in the SW and $150 in the NE, but I’m not sure. I do know that a commercial solar concentrator is going on-line soon in the SW (Arizona, I think)–something Junction… that will be interesting.
Either way, it’s sure to kick the crap out of the long distance commuter–probably good for everyone, in the long run. Short run… well that’s gonna suck for them.-one muggle
ParticipantThough I agree oil/energy is and will continue to be a problem, I take issue with all the peak-oil gloom and doom.
The very simplified “Peak oil” predictions all assume that there is a somewhat fixed amount of oil ready to be pumped, but that is not true. Even ignoring future discoveries, the amount of oil that can be pumped depends on the price of oil. As the value of oil increases, it becomes more feasible to pump out the hard-to-get (and thus more expensive) stuff. Also, it becomes more attractive to refine the high-sulfur petroleum–again, since this stuff is harder to refine, it is more expensive. The available oil in the Hubbert curve assumes that only a fraction of the oil is gettable–OK that is not really a word…
Somewhat perversely, high oil prices makes more oil accessible–not what the greenies had hoped, I expect. Maybe they should spend a little more time in science class and less time reading Chomsky. ;^)
Last I checked, $120 oil makes wind economically practical–don’t recall the number for solar. I think it might be around $75 in the SW and $150 in the NE, but I’m not sure. I do know that a commercial solar concentrator is going on-line soon in the SW (Arizona, I think)–something Junction… that will be interesting.
Either way, it’s sure to kick the crap out of the long distance commuter–probably good for everyone, in the long run. Short run… well that’s gonna suck for them.-one muggle
ParticipantIf you look at the report from Global Insights, CA was actually undervalued (compared to historical norms) through 2001 or 2002, so 2000 numbers are technically low. Though, even they do not claim that prices will drop any particular amount, they report the overvaluation as a stress on the market, rather than a target price. With gross overvaluation (>35%) the chances of the median dropping below the trend line during a crash, increases–so you might still get to see your <$300k. Probably depends on the level of spillover into the general economy, thus feeding the vicious cycle. -one muggle
ParticipantIf you look at the report from Global Insights, CA was actually undervalued (compared to historical norms) through 2001 or 2002, so 2000 numbers are technically low. Though, even they do not claim that prices will drop any particular amount, they report the overvaluation as a stress on the market, rather than a target price. With gross overvaluation (>35%) the chances of the median dropping below the trend line during a crash, increases–so you might still get to see your <$300k. Probably depends on the level of spillover into the general economy, thus feeding the vicious cycle. -one muggle
ParticipantIf you look at the report from Global Insights, CA was actually undervalued (compared to historical norms) through 2001 or 2002, so 2000 numbers are technically low. Though, even they do not claim that prices will drop any particular amount, they report the overvaluation as a stress on the market, rather than a target price. With gross overvaluation (>35%) the chances of the median dropping below the trend line during a crash, increases–so you might still get to see your <$300k. Probably depends on the level of spillover into the general economy, thus feeding the vicious cycle. -one muggle
October 30, 2007 at 10:34 PM in reply to: 10% population in SD county are millionaires (exclude Primary RE)?! #93439ParticipantWhen I run a simple case on the numbers for money needed to retire, I am not surprised.
Plugging in a generous but reasonable current income of $200k, for a 35 year old, retiring at 62 on 65% current income, I get a required nest egg of more than $4M.
It’s not surprising that 1 in 10 people in one of the richest county’s, in the richest state, in one of the richest countries are millionaires–all denominated in dollars, I might add. Now a million Euros, that’s real money! ;^)-one muggle
October 30, 2007 at 10:34 PM in reply to: 10% population in SD county are millionaires (exclude Primary RE)?! #93473ParticipantWhen I run a simple case on the numbers for money needed to retire, I am not surprised.
Plugging in a generous but reasonable current income of $200k, for a 35 year old, retiring at 62 on 65% current income, I get a required nest egg of more than $4M.
It’s not surprising that 1 in 10 people in one of the richest county’s, in the richest state, in one of the richest countries are millionaires–all denominated in dollars, I might add. Now a million Euros, that’s real money! ;^)-one muggle
October 30, 2007 at 10:34 PM in reply to: 10% population in SD county are millionaires (exclude Primary RE)?! #93482ParticipantWhen I run a simple case on the numbers for money needed to retire, I am not surprised.
Plugging in a generous but reasonable current income of $200k, for a 35 year old, retiring at 62 on 65% current income, I get a required nest egg of more than $4M.
It’s not surprising that 1 in 10 people in one of the richest county’s, in the richest state, in one of the richest countries are millionaires–all denominated in dollars, I might add. Now a million Euros, that’s real money! ;^)-one muggle
ParticipantIn the LA foothills you are required to irrigate or clear all of your property. About 1 month before the projected start of fire season the fire department surveys high risk regions and issues orders for clearing out areas that are in violation. About two weeks later they come back, and if it isn’t cleared, they clear it for you–and bill the land owner. I’ve seen the bills, these guys charge more per hour than a plastic surgeon.
It’s a great fund raiser, better than the pancake breakfast.
-one muggle
ParticipantIn the LA foothills you are required to irrigate or clear all of your property. About 1 month before the projected start of fire season the fire department surveys high risk regions and issues orders for clearing out areas that are in violation. About two weeks later they come back, and if it isn’t cleared, they clear it for you–and bill the land owner. I’ve seen the bills, these guys charge more per hour than a plastic surgeon.
It’s a great fund raiser, better than the pancake breakfast.
-one muggle
ParticipantIn the LA foothills you are required to irrigate or clear all of your property. About 1 month before the projected start of fire season the fire department surveys high risk regions and issues orders for clearing out areas that are in violation. About two weeks later they come back, and if it isn’t cleared, they clear it for you–and bill the land owner. I’ve seen the bills, these guys charge more per hour than a plastic surgeon.
It’s a great fund raiser, better than the pancake breakfast.
-one muggle
ParticipantI have three HEPA filters from Hunter that I bought during the 2003 fires. They work really well, but you need to change the filters way sooner than the 3 months,which they suggest, during these times.
Also, you can go to the pharmacy and buy some TB masks. They work much better than standard dust masks.
Last, use a humidifier, if you have one. It helps keep the dust down.Good luck
-one muggleParticipantI have three HEPA filters from Hunter that I bought during the 2003 fires. They work really well, but you need to change the filters way sooner than the 3 months,which they suggest, during these times.
Also, you can go to the pharmacy and buy some TB masks. They work much better than standard dust masks.
Last, use a humidifier, if you have one. It helps keep the dust down.Good luck
-one muggle -
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