[ocrenter]

there’s more sun because it is now hotter. so you pay more for the sun tax. That’s why Phoenix appreciated by 50% last year and should continue to do so until it is the priciest town in the continental US.

but in the same article the same realtor also said the sun is what’s keeping buyers away. what gives?

[ocrenter]

being from OC, SD does not have OC level prices.

let’s take RB, I think a comparison to mission viejo or aliso veijo would be justified. yet a 1500 sqft home can now be had for the low $500,000 in RB, but you’re still looking at mid $600,000 for the similar home in MV or aliso. So a good $150,000 still separate comparible cities in the two counties.

let’s take it a step further. those Eureka Springs new homes in Escondido is currently $550,000 for a 2700 sqft home. Armstrong Ranch in Santa Ana is still over $1 million!

[ocrenter]

here’s my blog: Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking

[ocrenter]

irvinesinglemom, we moved away from irvine/OC precisely because we didn’t want to wait. running my blog and doing my due diligence, my feeling is OC will crash, but it’ll take some time. if you want to stay in irvine, be prepared to wait for a long time, ie. 3-4 more years before being able to buy. go to my blog, check that Escondido post, that will happen everywhere, including OC. And go to the inventory numbers, see how SD has 23,000 resale homes to OC’s 17,000 with the same population size. others will disagree with me, but I really feel you are looking at 1-2 years behind SD with OC. $100,000 is not a lot of money, don’t jump in.

[ocrenter]

a doctor may be able to ride the ARM reset by jumping from residency to his/her regular job. that is likely to have very little effect because there are no doctors buying, not for the last 2 years. The only medical professionals buying properties in the last 2 years are the medical assistants and the radiology techs. (ok, slight exaggeration, but you guys get my point)

x1y2z3, thank you for your informative posts, what an addition to this board! I have a question. my landlord was on the verge of getting his NOD, now he claims he’ll be able to refi out of his troubles. problem is he purchased 4 homes in the last year, all 4 are cash flow negative, 100% financed, and now all have negative equality. I know you said anybody that can fog up a mirror can get a loan, but even a guy like my landlord can still get refi?

[ocrenter]

update on this tract of homes in San Marcos

xx7 Via Del Caballo (2358sqft) was unable to find a buyer at $519,000. It went to auction 7/20/06. I don’t know how long it takes for a REO to appear as a MLS listing, or maybe it was sold at auction. we’ll see.

xx1 Via Del Caballo (2445sqft) never came on the market. It is going to auction 8/17/06.

most homes in this tract are down to $520-550,000 asking price. we’ll see if these two homses about are going to make things interesting.

[ocrenter]

I took the time to get out the flyer I got from the pre-model sales office a month ago.

The Briars, which advertised the $511,500 SFR, was actually suppose to start from the low $600,000’s!!!

The Steppes, with the 2920 sqft home in the $550,000 range (btw, we went this weekend, these prices are here to stay, they are not just limited teaser prices for the grand opening), were suppose to start from the mid $600,000’s!!!

In another word, Lennar has slashed $100,000 off all of its models right off the bat.

We took a drive up to Valley Center’s Wood’s Valley today as well, everything is at least $100,000 off 6-8 months ago. Some of the really high end models that sold for $1 mil are now in the $800,000 range. The models previous going for mid $800,000 are now $700,000.

Remember, look at the center for the trend in the periphery went the market start to get strong, and look at the periphery for the trend at the center when the market is heading south.

[ocrenter]

for those of you that visit my site, you probably remember the house on Archer in San Elijo Hills being flipped by a foreclosure shark. anyhow, went ahead a put the history of price reduction plus the two previous listings in the comment section. we’ll see if these get printed.

[ocrenter]

in 2005 only 11% of all notice of defaults went to trustee’s sales, there’s been a gradual increase here in 2006 from 10.6% in January 2006 to roughly 18% in April/May 2006. This means as of May 2006, the percentage change in the total number of trustee’s sales is a staggering 232% compared to the same time period in 2005.

Link

[ocrenter]

bugs, just did a search of Escondido, there’s no 5 years or newer 2500 sqft and bigger homes selling for less than $635,000. These homes are breaking new grounds, and creating new comps for the area.

[ocrenter]

“Lending institutions are not in the business of managing rental properties.”

which explains the yellow lawn and the dead tree in the front yard. too many of these and the neighborhood start going downhill. Could communities such as Aliante and Queen Creek end up being the Lancaster of this bust?

bugs, what about areas in SD with a lot of foreclosures, like San Elijo, do you see problems with the neighborhood going sour?

[ocrenter]

powayseller, I think the biggest problem is looking at these guys’ jobs and labeling them as not worthy of being savvy real estate investors.

when I heard the medical assistant with an unemployed husband is purchasing a home in The OC for $600,000 and keeping her condo to rent out. I celebrate her bravery and raw guts. That type of investment takes guts that I frankly don’t have.

when a postal worker tell me about his multiple investment properties around SD, I’m proud to know we have the next Robert Kyosaki sorting and delivering our mail. with guys like that overseeing your letters and bills, don’t you feel that 39 cents on each letter is worth every penny?

likewise, celebrate the achievement of that radiology tech. rather than wasting years in med school and residency and got left behind by the real estate boom, this radiology tech took charge of his life, went to devry technical institute, and now live the life of luxury that the doctor ordering the x-ray can only dream of.

this is the American dream! don’t fight it, embrace it!

[ocrenter]

isn’t it from 1pm to 2pm?

I was just listening to it yesterday.

I caught about 15 minutes of it. In that 15 minutes, the host mentioned “everyone want to live here” 13 times, “have you ever seen the traffic on 5 north on Sunday afternoon? everyone in LA wants to live here!” 2 times, and “this is America’s finest city” 10 times. And after each of the above was “there is no bubble, there can’t be a bubble, not when everyone wants to live here.” after that some loser called in to ask listeners to drive to El Cajon to check out these condo conversions he’s selling. a 5-600 sqft 1 bedroom wannabe condo in beautiful El Cajon for $200,000. And then the host goes: “wow! and they claim there’s an affortability issue in San Diego?!”

If it is off the air, good riddens!

[ocrenter]

few things she’s trying to get at with the article.
#1: think with your heart, not with your head. finding that perfect home should be a pure emotional decision. (aka. hun, here’s the checkbook. oh look, they are so happy now).
#2: when you find that perfect house, don’t lowball, just accept the asking price because this is afterall a purely emotional decision. is there really a price for that perfect home?

you have to wonder if she wrote a similar article asking sellers to consider the buyers’ feelings during the period of significant cut throat bidding wars and sellers making buyers write essays about why they should be the one allowed to finance the sellers’ early retirement.

[ocrenter]

Much has been made recently of the downturn in San Diego County’s real estate market, considered a harbinger for the region. Alarm bells went off when the June median home price there fell 1% and the number of sales dropped 24% from the same month a year ago — a tumble experts attribute largely to conditions peculiar to that area, most pointedly the overbuilding of downtown condominiums.

That is not the case in the rest of Southern California, where in June, prices rose 7.4% from a year ago to a median of $494,000. The number of existing homes and condos sold dropped, but new-home sales, which made up 22% of the market, are showing strong gains, according to DataQuick analysis.

in other word, we are different and unique because [fill in the blank]. If I can have a nickel for every time I hear this…

[Author]

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