San Marcos Price Reduction

[ocrenter]

I have been giving sdrealtor a hard time at the other topic “Median Price Down in North County” by showing the following two properties:

xx7 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 3
Sq ft: 2,358
Listing Price: $550,000 – $599,876
Last Purchased: Dec 03 $460,000

and comparing the asking price of the first home with the sale price of the second home.

xx5 Via Del Caballo, San Marcos, CA 92078
Bedrooms: 4
Baths: 3
Sq ft: 2,358
Mar 06 $625,000

There was a lot of back and forth about lot premium and lot size and upgrades to try to account for the $75,000 in price difference in two homes with the same sqft and same floorplan.

All of that, I believe, is now rendered completely pointless because of this new development. As of today 4/25/06, there has been additional price drop down to $539,000 on the first home. Why? Because this home is currently in pre-foreclosure.

If you recall, this home was purchased for $460,000 in 12/03. A look into the loan doc’s indicates a 80/20, zero down loan. Assuming a 2 year fixed loan on the 80% portion, this means this person just experienced a reset of his mortgage 12/05. After 3 months of paying at the higher rate, he is defaulting and going into foreclosure.

To avoid foreclosure, all he has to do is keep lowering the price until someone bites, and this can get as low as $490,000 for him not to lose money on this sale. What would the sale of a home at $490,000 do to comps in this neighborhood? Let’s not even go so low as that, what would it do to the comps if he gets a buyer at the current reduced pricing of $539,000.

The next question of course is: what happens if there’s another foreclosure in the neighborhood and the owner decides to slash prices? Well, we shall see, as xx7’s neighbor xx2 has now just entered into pre-foreclosure this month, we’ll see if xx2 throw their hat into the ever expanding San Diego Inventory of homes for sale.

[sdrealtor]

You are right..it’s pointless….the house will sell for what it is worth in today’s market just like the other nicer one did. A $490 comp would change things quite a bit while a 539K would have very little impact. BTW, the current owner is the second owner and bought in 12/03 right as the market began exploding higher by the day.

[powayseller]

I was trying to follow the other post, and it seemed the houses were basically equivalent. A drop to $539K is a 10% drop, and is signficant. The impact is huge, both in reducing median numbers (gee, eventually the data will show what we know is happening) and in reducing future listing prices.

[sdrealtor]

FYI, The 625K sale is clearly an outlier. Comps in the last 6 months for these homes are 571K, 572K and 585K. The are 3 homes currently in escrow. All have value range price…550 to 585, 579 to 599 and 579 to 609. It’s reasonable to assume that they will close with 1 to 2% of the previous comps. There are currently 12 homes for sale (that’s *%&$’in alot!) with asking ranges between 550 and 640. The one that you are referencing has a range of 539 to 579. They are trying to appear as the most attractively priced home on the street and are hoping the next offer comes to them. I’d be surprised if they sold for the 539 and a comp around 540 would have little impact on the others. A comp of 500 would. BTW, I listed and sold a home nearby that was much nicer than these for a little more and it sold in about 1 week at a fair price for all. These homes should be 550K or less.

[jabrwoki]

sdrealtor,
appreciate your insights as a realtor. One thing I never understood was this BS call value range pricing. I can understand the significance of a lower limit on bids which will be looked at by the buyer but why bother with the upper limit. Are they saying they dont entertain bids above the price ? Or are they hinting to the seller how much they think their property is really worth ! Dont they give the buyer even an iota of credit for looking around to see how much to bid.

thanks

[sdrealtor]

It’s a marketing gimmick to increase interest in a property. Lets say you have a house worth 525K in a rising market. When you price it at 499 to 550, it turns up in searches up to 500 and the seller hopes the people at the lower end will stretch. It also built in cushion when the market was rapidly increasing for overbidding. Now it is used when the seller thinks their house is worth 525 to 550 but the agent things more like 500. Personally, I think it confuses the hell out of buyers.

[Bugs]

I’m seeing a larger percentage of sales closing at prices that are below their listing ranges. I’m seeing almost nothing selling any higher than the middle of their ranges. The days of overbids are over. I’m seeing more and more markets where the tramsactions with the highest sales are becoming too dated to use in an appraisal, and where listings are lower than the previous sales. Come July 1, most appraisers will stop using 2005 transactions as comparables, leaving only the sales that have occurred so far this year.

Once the regional market is conclusively proven to be in decline, the lenders will be compelled to switch gears on their underwriting. They can no longer assume that prices will continue to increase, thereby compensating for any errors. Interest rates don’t have to go up much to affect a decision on a mortgage transaction – increased underwriting requirements will kill a lot of deals that would otherwise have been done in years past.

I don’t think it will take very many deals going south because of tightening credit requirements to have an outsized effect on the market psychology.

[sdrealtor]

ABout 3 or 4 months ago I did a study on range pricing. Here’s what I found. Approx 50% sold below low end. 75% sold at or below 25 percentile. 90% sold at or below middle of the range. Sales at or near the top of the range were neglible. I’m sure its worse now. Range pricing as an effective pricing tool died in mid-2005

[ocrenter]

update on this tract of homes in San Marcos

xx7 Via Del Caballo (2358sqft) was unable to find a buyer at $519,000. It went to auction 7/20/06. I don’t know how long it takes for a REO to appear as a MLS listing, or maybe it was sold at auction. we’ll see.

xx1 Via Del Caballo (2445sqft) never came on the market. It is going to auction 8/17/06.

most homes in this tract are down to $520-550,000 asking price. we’ll see if these two homses about are going to make things interesting.

[ocrenter]

two more properties in the same community coming on line for foreclosure.

xx4 Via Del Caballo (2358sqft)
purchase price $446,000 3/04 (zero down)
purchase price $585,000 9/04 (zero down)

xx7 Camino Verde (2172 sqft)
purchase price $364,500 12/02
HELOC $70,000 9/03
refinance $448,000 9/05

so that’s 4 properties either just gone thru auction or just received their NOD in 1 small gated community. and on top of these there are 14 homes for sale. There’s at least one other property in the pipeline for foreclosure. In 4-6 months there will be at least 5 REO’s in this property. serious price drops will have to be necessary at that time.

[ocrenter]

“Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed.” sdrealtor, 6/06.

San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.

[JES]

Couple points:

-I have been in that neighborhood numerous times and it is a fairly nice, gated community east and adjacent to Cal State.

-There is a Sprinter train station being built a couple hundred yards north of that neighborhood, at LaMore and Barham Ln. Possible reason for the # of homes for sale. We’re talking diesel trains, every 15 minutes all day long, and traffic from the station and students.

-The university has plans to build nearby as well, but I don’t know exactly where. It could be that a dorm will be built directly behind the neighborhood, who knows. Would have to look at the Cal State master plan for that.

-Look at the neighborhood to the west of this, Silvercrest by Centex (sold out) off of Shelley Dr. Actually go drive it…there are 12+ homes for sale on just the first 2 streets and all are reduced and none pending (last I checked). Edgewater Dr. is one of the roads in there.

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
I stand by my comments on 6/6 but dont disagree that we could get into the mid 400’s by the end of next year. However, there have been closed sales of $547K, $560K, $589K and $597K since my post on 6/6/06.

There are now 13 homes in the MLS, one priced at $520K to $545K after that the others are all clustered between the mid $500’s and mid $600’s. There are 2 in escrow at asking prices of $540K (a short sale that went quick in 2 days) and $585K. Sure there is a lot of inventory, but we just dont know how many of the owners NEED to sell. Clealry the four in trouble NEED to.

BTW, That neighborhood has always struggled for resales even in the boom market and isnt representative of the entire market. That area is full of people that couldnt afford to buy what/where they wanted but stretched to go there because they were new/relatively new homes. That will likely be one of the very ugly areas.

[jmrrobbie1]

JMR

What of the San Elijo Hills “planned community”? My digging indicates numerous ownership complaints with poor building & construction problems – obviously these built during the boom. Is this micro-area of San Marcos holding its own; this section started in the late bubble era and the next two phases yet to start?

What of this community in general – if the price drops enough in the next two years this location seems ideal – proximity to ocean, high enough on hillside to give a sense of uniqueness, access to freeways, infrastructure & shopping, new schools? Several pricey homes on Schoolhouse Way (#1400 & 1405) – with ocean views but now listing in this bubble burst ($990K)… although Westcliffe is the higher end for this community? Is $775K too much of a stretch in the future for these two – but worth the risk of a poorly built home (Ocean view, 9000+ sq ft lot, $189/sq ft).

[farbet]

AKA San Mello Roos 92078
faux rich
lots of NOD

[farbet]

AKA San Mello Roos 92078
faux rich
lots of NOD

[farbet]

AKA San Mello Roos 92078
faux rich
lots of NOD

[farbet]

AKA San Mello Roos 92078
faux rich
lots of NOD

[farbet]

AKA San Mello Roos 92078
faux rich
lots of NOD

[farbet]

AKA San Mello Roos 92078
faux rich
lots of NOD

[farbet]

AKA San Mello Roos 92078
faux rich
lots of NOD

[farbet]

AKA San Mello Roos 92078
faux rich
lots of NOD

[farbet]

AKA San Mello Roos 92078
faux rich
lots of NOD

[farbet]

AKA San Mello Roos 92078
faux rich
lots of NOD

[Anonymous]

jmrrobbie1

My running route takes me through Westcliffe. I’ve met some of the people who live there and can tell you that I would love to live next to such nice folks.

However, I’ve noticed a few houses on Schoolhouse way that have no signs of life. I mean, the blinds are always drawn, I never see a car in the driveway, no patio furniture (you can see all the yards from up above on the hill). But there are no lock boxes on the front door, and no for-sale signs in the yards. If you drive by you’ll see what I mean, they just look empty.

I could swear I picked up a flyer on Schoolhouse a while back asking $890,000, but my memory could be wrong. Not sure if it had an ocean view.

[jmrrobbie1]

JMR

Like your thread name … and a running route or bicycle tour is the best way to get a feel for an area. I was looking at San Elijo Hills (Westcliffe) only from a paper/internet/geographical search – as we are in the early process of a home & area search. Geographically this area appears great – just North of RSF and South of Carlsbad, close enough to the ocean for temperature moderation, high enough on the hill to catch the breeze, great freeway excess, proximity to services but still distinct enough on it’s own. Ok … RSF it is not nor a Carlsbad – but for the price range and with the bear market still on the way down … maybe in 1-2 decades it could be Carlsbad or better??? What of the builder?

What of the “planned community” – still going thru or put on hold. From others on these post looks like tax & ownership fees are high.

Your thoughts & insight are appreciated …

[jmrrobbie1]

JMR

Like your thread name … and a running route or bicycle tour is the best way to get a feel for an area. I was looking at San Elijo Hills (Westcliffe) only from a paper/internet/geographical search – as we are in the early process of a home & area search. Geographically this area appears great – just North of RSF and South of Carlsbad, close enough to the ocean for temperature moderation, high enough on the hill to catch the breeze, great freeway excess, proximity to services but still distinct enough on it’s own. Ok … RSF it is not nor a Carlsbad – but for the price range and with the bear market still on the way down … maybe in 1-2 decades it could be Carlsbad or better??? What of the builder?

What of the “planned community” – still going thru or put on hold. From others on these post looks like tax & ownership fees are high.

Your thoughts & insight are appreciated …

[jmrrobbie1]

JMR

Like your thread name … and a running route or bicycle tour is the best way to get a feel for an area. I was looking at San Elijo Hills (Westcliffe) only from a paper/internet/geographical search – as we are in the early process of a home & area search. Geographically this area appears great – just North of RSF and South of Carlsbad, close enough to the ocean for temperature moderation, high enough on the hill to catch the breeze, great freeway excess, proximity to services but still distinct enough on it’s own. Ok … RSF it is not nor a Carlsbad – but for the price range and with the bear market still on the way down … maybe in 1-2 decades it could be Carlsbad or better??? What of the builder?

What of the “planned community” – still going thru or put on hold. From others on these post looks like tax & ownership fees are high.

Your thoughts & insight are appreciated …

[jmrrobbie1]

JMR

Like your thread name … and a running route or bicycle tour is the best way to get a feel for an area. I was looking at San Elijo Hills (Westcliffe) only from a paper/internet/geographical search – as we are in the early process of a home & area search. Geographically this area appears great – just North of RSF and South of Carlsbad, close enough to the ocean for temperature moderation, high enough on the hill to catch the breeze, great freeway excess, proximity to services but still distinct enough on it’s own. Ok … RSF it is not nor a Carlsbad – but for the price range and with the bear market still on the way down … maybe in 1-2 decades it could be Carlsbad or better??? What of the builder?

What of the “planned community” – still going thru or put on hold. From others on these post looks like tax & ownership fees are high.

Your thoughts & insight are appreciated …

[jmrrobbie1]

JMR

Like your thread name … and a running route or bicycle tour is the best way to get a feel for an area. I was looking at San Elijo Hills (Westcliffe) only from a paper/internet/geographical search – as we are in the early process of a home & area search. Geographically this area appears great – just North of RSF and South of Carlsbad, close enough to the ocean for temperature moderation, high enough on the hill to catch the breeze, great freeway excess, proximity to services but still distinct enough on it’s own. Ok … RSF it is not nor a Carlsbad – but for the price range and with the bear market still on the way down … maybe in 1-2 decades it could be Carlsbad or better??? What of the builder?

What of the “planned community” – still going thru or put on hold. From others on these post looks like tax & ownership fees are high.

Your thoughts & insight are appreciated …

[Anonymous]

jmrrobbie1

My running route takes me through Westcliffe. I’ve met some of the people who live there and can tell you that I would love to live next to such nice folks.

However, I’ve noticed a few houses on Schoolhouse way that have no signs of life. I mean, the blinds are always drawn, I never see a car in the driveway, no patio furniture (you can see all the yards from up above on the hill). But there are no lock boxes on the front door, and no for-sale signs in the yards. If you drive by you’ll see what I mean, they just look empty.

I could swear I picked up a flyer on Schoolhouse a while back asking $890,000, but my memory could be wrong. Not sure if it had an ocean view.

[Anonymous]

jmrrobbie1

My running route takes me through Westcliffe. I’ve met some of the people who live there and can tell you that I would love to live next to such nice folks.

However, I’ve noticed a few houses on Schoolhouse way that have no signs of life. I mean, the blinds are always drawn, I never see a car in the driveway, no patio furniture (you can see all the yards from up above on the hill). But there are no lock boxes on the front door, and no for-sale signs in the yards. If you drive by you’ll see what I mean, they just look empty.

I could swear I picked up a flyer on Schoolhouse a while back asking $890,000, but my memory could be wrong. Not sure if it had an ocean view.

[Anonymous]

jmrrobbie1

My running route takes me through Westcliffe. I’ve met some of the people who live there and can tell you that I would love to live next to such nice folks.

However, I’ve noticed a few houses on Schoolhouse way that have no signs of life. I mean, the blinds are always drawn, I never see a car in the driveway, no patio furniture (you can see all the yards from up above on the hill). But there are no lock boxes on the front door, and no for-sale signs in the yards. If you drive by you’ll see what I mean, they just look empty.

I could swear I picked up a flyer on Schoolhouse a while back asking $890,000, but my memory could be wrong. Not sure if it had an ocean view.

[Anonymous]

jmrrobbie1

My running route takes me through Westcliffe. I’ve met some of the people who live there and can tell you that I would love to live next to such nice folks.

However, I’ve noticed a few houses on Schoolhouse way that have no signs of life. I mean, the blinds are always drawn, I never see a car in the driveway, no patio furniture (you can see all the yards from up above on the hill). But there are no lock boxes on the front door, and no for-sale signs in the yards. If you drive by you’ll see what I mean, they just look empty.

I could swear I picked up a flyer on Schoolhouse a while back asking $890,000, but my memory could be wrong. Not sure if it had an ocean view.

[jmrrobbie1]

JMR

What of the San Elijo Hills “planned community”? My digging indicates numerous ownership complaints with poor building & construction problems – obviously these built during the boom. Is this micro-area of San Marcos holding its own; this section started in the late bubble era and the next two phases yet to start?

What of this community in general – if the price drops enough in the next two years this location seems ideal – proximity to ocean, high enough on hillside to give a sense of uniqueness, access to freeways, infrastructure & shopping, new schools? Several pricey homes on Schoolhouse Way (#1400 & 1405) – with ocean views but now listing in this bubble burst ($990K)… although Westcliffe is the higher end for this community? Is $775K too much of a stretch in the future for these two – but worth the risk of a poorly built home (Ocean view, 9000+ sq ft lot, $189/sq ft).

[jmrrobbie1]

JMR

What of the San Elijo Hills “planned community”? My digging indicates numerous ownership complaints with poor building & construction problems – obviously these built during the boom. Is this micro-area of San Marcos holding its own; this section started in the late bubble era and the next two phases yet to start?

What of this community in general – if the price drops enough in the next two years this location seems ideal – proximity to ocean, high enough on hillside to give a sense of uniqueness, access to freeways, infrastructure & shopping, new schools? Several pricey homes on Schoolhouse Way (#1400 & 1405) – with ocean views but now listing in this bubble burst ($990K)… although Westcliffe is the higher end for this community? Is $775K too much of a stretch in the future for these two – but worth the risk of a poorly built home (Ocean view, 9000+ sq ft lot, $189/sq ft).

[jmrrobbie1]

JMR

What of the San Elijo Hills “planned community”? My digging indicates numerous ownership complaints with poor building & construction problems – obviously these built during the boom. Is this micro-area of San Marcos holding its own; this section started in the late bubble era and the next two phases yet to start?

What of this community in general – if the price drops enough in the next two years this location seems ideal – proximity to ocean, high enough on hillside to give a sense of uniqueness, access to freeways, infrastructure & shopping, new schools? Several pricey homes on Schoolhouse Way (#1400 & 1405) – with ocean views but now listing in this bubble burst ($990K)… although Westcliffe is the higher end for this community? Is $775K too much of a stretch in the future for these two – but worth the risk of a poorly built home (Ocean view, 9000+ sq ft lot, $189/sq ft).

[jmrrobbie1]

JMR

What of the San Elijo Hills “planned community”? My digging indicates numerous ownership complaints with poor building & construction problems – obviously these built during the boom. Is this micro-area of San Marcos holding its own; this section started in the late bubble era and the next two phases yet to start?

What of this community in general – if the price drops enough in the next two years this location seems ideal – proximity to ocean, high enough on hillside to give a sense of uniqueness, access to freeways, infrastructure & shopping, new schools? Several pricey homes on Schoolhouse Way (#1400 & 1405) – with ocean views but now listing in this bubble burst ($990K)… although Westcliffe is the higher end for this community? Is $775K too much of a stretch in the future for these two – but worth the risk of a poorly built home (Ocean view, 9000+ sq ft lot, $189/sq ft).

[ocrenter]

Correction on the home that just enter’d pre-foreclosure, it isn’t xx2 Via Del Caballo, it’s xx1 Via Del Caballo. Looking at the loan docs looks like we got ourselves another 80/20 piggyback loan back in 3/03 for $422,000 for the 2445 sqft model. They refi’d in 8/04 for $450,000. (did it thru Ameriquest, that should sound some alarms).

So these guys also have equity to burn up and escape unscathed. If the xx1 guys can get their home sold in the $500’s, look for $480,000 as the magic number for them.

If you use the interactive map feature of ziprealty, you’ll end up with 12 homes for sale in this tract. The smallest model is the 2172 sqft homes, average asking price is currently $560,000. These two foreclosures are going to be interesting to watch. If we actually have a 2358 sqft selling for $490,000 and a 2445 sqft selling for $480,000, the slide in these 2172 sqft homes are going to be tramendous.

[jabrwoki]

hey ocrenter ,

Cool analysis. BTW, where do you get personal info such as loan docs for each home !

thanks

[ocrenter]

once you are in foreclosure your info is open to the world. I got those from realtytrac.com.

[jabrwoki]

thanks !!

[jabrwoki]

Here’s another in the same zip code (92078) (though in a nicer neighborhood) in foreclosure.
1168 CALISTOGA WAY, san marcos, ca92078
Can you get any info on its history ?

thanks

[North County Jim]

I saw this one yesterday. Not only a foreclosure sale but listed as a fixer-upper. This house is less than three years old!

Note the lack of interior photos in the MLS.

[powayseller]

This property is listed as Sold 2/6/06.
Sales Price: $640,389
Prior doc info:

Recording Date 8/12/2004
Lender Name First Franklin Financial Corp
Price $720,000
1st Loan Amount $569,800
2nd Loan Amount $142,450

You can get a membership to RealtyTrac for a few bucks a month.

[jabrwoki]

The current asking price seems to be $619k. Of course as Jim mentioned there is only one photo of interior (kitchen) that too recently added. There are also some caveats (to buyers) on staying away from a unfinished deck LOL.
powayseller, membership seems to be $39.95 per month (a bit steep for just browsers) but probably justified if you are serious about buying right now.

[forsale_2007]

The current asking price seems to be $619k. Of course as Jim mentioned there is only one photo of interior (kitchen) that too recently added. There are also some caveats (to buyers) on staying away from a unfinished deck LOL. powayseller, membership seems to be $39.95 per month (a bit steep for just browsers) but probably justified if you are serious about buying right now.

 

 

Or if you're cheap..Just signup for a 1 week free membership and cancel.
 Then re-signup…. 🙂

 

[an]

Here’s something I just found out from khov.com, K Hovnanian website. They’re build new homes at 791 Kirkwall Drive
San Marcos, California. The size range from 2152 sq-ft to 2761 sq-ft. The shocker is the price start from $485k for the smallest model and $530k for the largest model. That’s $225/sq-ft for the smallest model to $191/sq-ft. That some very stiff competition from the builder.

[Anonymous]

Saw a home online in the Silvercrest neighborhood of San Marcos yesterday (near CSUSM). Same model with same upgrades sold in 04-50′ 860k, and also 810k and 815k. This one is now listed at 670k.

[sdrealtor]

The Sprinter train which will start running shortly is a stone’s throw from that house. I really mean a stone’s throw. And it could be a 5 year throwing the stone!

[ocrenter]

sdr, think the developer notified those homeowners/flippers of their future neighbor when they purchased a couple of years ago?

[sdrealtor]

Absolutely Centex had to notify them. In the frenzy of it all people looked past the obvious to get a nice big house with all the bell and whistles for what seemed like a good price. Even so, i remember it took a long time to sell those puppies.

[PerryChase]

How far is the Sprinter station from those houses? It might be a plus for some commuters.

[ocrenter]

perry, for some of these homes the train is so close to them they can just jump down from their yard directly on to the roof of the train, no station needed.

[sdrealtor]

OCR is correct. Some but not all of the homes are within 25 feet of passing trains. There will be a station within walking distance of the homes.

[Anonymous]

Close station is a positive, double tracks within jumping distance of your backyard with trains going by every 15 minutes from 5am-11pm = reason so many homes there were/are for sale.

[ocrenter]

ocrenter’s call in ’06:
“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.”
___________________________

There is certainly still time for ocrenter’s prediction to be realized. If this neighborhood completely tanks and prices plunge 25-30% over the next 2-6 months, he/she will be right. Certainly not a bet I would make.

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/10/if-only-i-waited-in-bellezasan-marcos.html

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
As one of the original posters on this thread I like my prediction much more than yours as of this date. The proeprty you are referencing is a short sale attempt at a price the lender likely has no knowledge of and a smaller floorplan with less bedrooms.

Here are the last 2 closed comps.

2172 sq ft closed on 9/24/07 for $545,900. BTW, the buyer put about 30% down.

2445 sq ft closed on 8/22/07 for $559,900. BTW, buyer put down over 50%.

The last sale of the floorplan you are referencing (1909 sq ft) closed on 7/19/07 at $490,000. It was a Short sale attempt listed at $480,000. BTW, the buyers put down over 20%.

It appears this hood is holding up very well with 5 current active listings and two others ine scrow with asking prices in the same ballpark as the recent closed sales.

[JWM in SD]

“It was a Short sale attempt listed at $480,000. BTW, the buyers put down over 20%”

Uhh, the buyer managed to save $96K but still couldn’t make payments???? More likely they were a move-up buyer who didn’t have the income to make the payments.

[ocrenter]

what I have been finding is you get the short sale attempt approaching the true price point. but the lender rejects it and let it head to foreclosure. by the time the lender has it as a REO, guess what, it is listed at the short sale prices or a bit above.

if the prices are holding up so well, why the price reductions:

–09/2007: listed for sale at $475,000.
–Price Reduced: 09/19/07 — $475,000 to $459,000
–Price Reduced: 09/26/07 — $459,000 to $445,000
–Price Reduced: 10/03/07 — $445,000 to $435,000
–Price Reduced: 10/10/07 — $435,000 to $425,000
–Price Reduced: 10/29/07 — $425,000 to $409,000

[JWM in SD]

“…if the prices are holding up so well, why the price reductions:….”

Simple, because they aren’t holding up so well. But hey, Realtors gotta eat too right??

Right sdrealtor??

[sdrealtor]

JWM,
I’m eating just fine! I own a couple non-RE businesses and my MSFT stock alone is probably worth more than your net worth. You could have joined me at Arterra last Saturday. I’m heading out to Bistro West for lunch now but you can catch me at Donovan’s this Saturday nite.

[JWM in SD]

“…my MSFT stock alone is probably worth more than your net worth”

Let me guess, you bought it between ’85 and ’95 right?

[sdrealtor]

6 months after the IPO and havent sold a share after more splits than i can count.

btw, lunch was great

[sdrealtor]

6 months after the IPO and havent sold a share after more splits than i can count.

btw, lunch was great

[sdrealtor]

6 months after the IPO and havent sold a share after more splits than i can count.

btw, lunch was great

[JWM in SD]

“…my MSFT stock alone is probably worth more than your net worth”

Let me guess, you bought it between ’85 and ’95 right?

[JWM in SD]

“…my MSFT stock alone is probably worth more than your net worth”

Let me guess, you bought it between ’85 and ’95 right?

[sdrealtor]

JWM,
I’m eating just fine! I own a couple non-RE businesses and my MSFT stock alone is probably worth more than your net worth. You could have joined me at Arterra last Saturday. I’m heading out to Bistro West for lunch now but you can catch me at Donovan’s this Saturday nite.

[sdrealtor]

JWM,
I’m eating just fine! I own a couple non-RE businesses and my MSFT stock alone is probably worth more than your net worth. You could have joined me at Arterra last Saturday. I’m heading out to Bistro West for lunch now but you can catch me at Donovan’s this Saturday nite.

[JWM in SD]

“…if the prices are holding up so well, why the price reductions:….”

Simple, because they aren’t holding up so well. But hey, Realtors gotta eat too right??

Right sdrealtor??

[JWM in SD]

“…if the prices are holding up so well, why the price reductions:….”

Simple, because they aren’t holding up so well. But hey, Realtors gotta eat too right??

Right sdrealtor??

[sdrealtor]

OCR, I wont disagree but thats not the point. I compared our predictions to WHAT IS not WHAT MIGHT BE. Based upon what actually happened so far, I take the victory here.

As for the price reductions, we have a seller without patience and/or time. Average market times are about 6months these days and that guy/gal cant or wont wait.

[ocrenter]

WHAT IS is the fact that if you really need to sell you got to lower your price to mid-lower 400’s. The rest of the sellers can sit there for another 6 months with their over 500,000 listings, they ain’t gonna get any action.

as a realtor would you advice the homeowners to just sit and wait?

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
You are speculating again. No one knows what it will take to get it done right now. There are two of the larger floorplans in escrow right now and some very recent sales well over 500K. Also you are comparing the smaller floorplan.

Bottomline, I was spot on. You were a bit premature should we say?

What the future brings? Well that’s the fun part we get to watch.

sdr

[ocrenter]

You are speculating again. No one knows what it will take to get it done right now. There are two of the larger floorplans in escrow right now and some very recent sales well over 500K. Also you are comparing the smaller floorplan.

Bottomline, I was spot on. You were a bit premature should we say?

here’s a larger floorplan asking in the mid-400’s.

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078
–2,259 sqft for $459,000 to $475,000.

is this also a short sale attempt that we shouldn’t count?

you like to pull the “I’m right and you are wrong” game. I like to simply point out that prices are now entering into the $400’s in this neighborhood. Which is firmly in 2003 pricing. As for the folks that bought or are pending at prices “well over 500k,” just more knife catchers IMHO.

[SD Realtor]

Just my two cents here… This particular subdivision is Belleza. The property you just listed OC does have a lis pendens filed against it and a 450k recorded mortgage so I do believe it is going to be a short sale. Indeed it is priced aggressively which IMO is what is needed these days.

This is one of those cases where you can look at the data and interpret it in either direction. Yes as sdrealtor pointed out there were two sales in 9/24 and 8/22 but there have been no sales since. There is an additional home that is pending at 490k but it is the small 1909sf plan. Nothing else is pending. I would say prices are “heading” towards 2003 like you pointed out OC. Those that really really want to sell will IMO need to price more along those lines.

Also there have been 9 unique expirations/cancelleds verses 7 solds for this subdivision for listings hitting the MLS since 1/1/07.

SD Realtor

[ocrenter]

thanks for the additional info SD Realtor.

now here’s something fun:

549 ECHO, San Marcos, CA 92078
–3,715 sqft
–currently a REO with countrywide
–asking for $599,000. looks like this is because the prior owner took the AC unit with him when he took off prior to the auction.

I remember seeing this place for sale at $670k back earlier this year.

[patientlywaiting]

I like to simply point out that prices are now entering into the $400's in this neighborhood. Which is firmly in 2003 pricing. As for the folks that bought or are pending at prices "well over 500k," just more knife catchers IMHO.

Its seems to me that OC renter identified a trend.   Just like realtors who identified a trend on the way up, asked for the moon and got it.  It works the same on the way down. 

Thanks, ocrenter, for a  super informative, and fun blog.  You're make a great contribution to the real estate bloggosphere.  

 

[patientlywaiting]

I like to simply point out that prices are now entering into the $400's in this neighborhood. Which is firmly in 2003 pricing. As for the folks that bought or are pending at prices "well over 500k," just more knife catchers IMHO.

Its seems to me that OC renter identified a trend.   Just like realtors who identified a trend on the way up, asked for the moon and got it.  It works the same on the way down. 

Thanks, ocrenter, for a  super informative, and fun blog.  You're make a great contribution to the real estate bloggosphere.  

 

[patientlywaiting]

I like to simply point out that prices are now entering into the $400's in this neighborhood. Which is firmly in 2003 pricing. As for the folks that bought or are pending at prices "well over 500k," just more knife catchers IMHO.

Its seems to me that OC renter identified a trend.   Just like realtors who identified a trend on the way up, asked for the moon and got it.  It works the same on the way down. 

Thanks, ocrenter, for a  super informative, and fun blog.  You're make a great contribution to the real estate bloggosphere.  

 

[patientlywaiting]

I like to simply point out that prices are now entering into the $400's in this neighborhood. Which is firmly in 2003 pricing. As for the folks that bought or are pending at prices "well over 500k," just more knife catchers IMHO.

Its seems to me that OC renter identified a trend.   Just like realtors who identified a trend on the way up, asked for the moon and got it.  It works the same on the way down. 

Thanks, ocrenter, for a  super informative, and fun blog.  You're make a great contribution to the real estate bloggosphere.  

 

[ocrenter]

thanks for the additional info SD Realtor.

now here’s something fun:

549 ECHO, San Marcos, CA 92078
–3,715 sqft
–currently a REO with countrywide
–asking for $599,000. looks like this is because the prior owner took the AC unit with him when he took off prior to the auction.

I remember seeing this place for sale at $670k back earlier this year.

[ocrenter]

thanks for the additional info SD Realtor.

now here’s something fun:

549 ECHO, San Marcos, CA 92078
–3,715 sqft
–currently a REO with countrywide
–asking for $599,000. looks like this is because the prior owner took the AC unit with him when he took off prior to the auction.

I remember seeing this place for sale at $670k back earlier this year.

[ocrenter]

thanks for the additional info SD Realtor.

now here’s something fun:

549 ECHO, San Marcos, CA 92078
–3,715 sqft
–currently a REO with countrywide
–asking for $599,000. looks like this is because the prior owner took the AC unit with him when he took off prior to the auction.

I remember seeing this place for sale at $670k back earlier this year.

[SD Realtor]

Just my two cents here… This particular subdivision is Belleza. The property you just listed OC does have a lis pendens filed against it and a 450k recorded mortgage so I do believe it is going to be a short sale. Indeed it is priced aggressively which IMO is what is needed these days.

This is one of those cases where you can look at the data and interpret it in either direction. Yes as sdrealtor pointed out there were two sales in 9/24 and 8/22 but there have been no sales since. There is an additional home that is pending at 490k but it is the small 1909sf plan. Nothing else is pending. I would say prices are “heading” towards 2003 like you pointed out OC. Those that really really want to sell will IMO need to price more along those lines.

Also there have been 9 unique expirations/cancelleds verses 7 solds for this subdivision for listings hitting the MLS since 1/1/07.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Just my two cents here… This particular subdivision is Belleza. The property you just listed OC does have a lis pendens filed against it and a 450k recorded mortgage so I do believe it is going to be a short sale. Indeed it is priced aggressively which IMO is what is needed these days.

This is one of those cases where you can look at the data and interpret it in either direction. Yes as sdrealtor pointed out there were two sales in 9/24 and 8/22 but there have been no sales since. There is an additional home that is pending at 490k but it is the small 1909sf plan. Nothing else is pending. I would say prices are “heading” towards 2003 like you pointed out OC. Those that really really want to sell will IMO need to price more along those lines.

Also there have been 9 unique expirations/cancelleds verses 7 solds for this subdivision for listings hitting the MLS since 1/1/07.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Just my two cents here… This particular subdivision is Belleza. The property you just listed OC does have a lis pendens filed against it and a 450k recorded mortgage so I do believe it is going to be a short sale. Indeed it is priced aggressively which IMO is what is needed these days.

This is one of those cases where you can look at the data and interpret it in either direction. Yes as sdrealtor pointed out there were two sales in 9/24 and 8/22 but there have been no sales since. There is an additional home that is pending at 490k but it is the small 1909sf plan. Nothing else is pending. I would say prices are “heading” towards 2003 like you pointed out OC. Those that really really want to sell will IMO need to price more along those lines.

Also there have been 9 unique expirations/cancelleds verses 7 solds for this subdivision for listings hitting the MLS since 1/1/07.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
Whatever. You are cherry picking to prove your point. if you go back to the threads begining you see we were talking about the 2300+sq ft model. A few times we looked at the 2100 sq ft model. Now to prove your point that we might get into the low 400’s in 2007 you pulled out a much smaller model that was never part of the thread. If you look back to August 2006 posts you will see asking prices in the low 500’s for the larger models and your speculating they would dip below 500K. One year later we still see them closing above 500K.

SD R,
Jeezuz! if 30 to 60 day comps arent current enough what is? You also missed a pending on Camino Verde with an asking price of 575,000. probably didnt go that high but certainly not in the low 400’s.

A pending of the smaller 1900 sq ft model with an asking price of $490,000 is pretty strong IMO. BTW, this floorplan was selling in the high 300’s in late 2003. Throw in the fact that Twin Oaks Valley Road now goes through San Elijo Hills dramatically improving access to the coast and I’m still calling victory on this prediction.

Guys,
I dont deny the direction of where things are heading but OCR’s call was wrong given the timing of it. As for entering 2003 pricing, that is a pretty meaningless statement as we have been there for a year already in most areas. The question is not are we in 2003 pricing but are we in January 2003 pricing which is vastly different from November 2003 pricing as there was substantial appreciation throughout the year.

[SD Realtor]

sdrealtor I did not miss the Camino Verde pending. As I wrote, the only comps I pulled up were for the Belleza subdivision. The Camino Verde comp that you pulled up did not list Belleza as the subdivision so that is why it did not come up in my search.

Again as I wrote in my post above I am not really saying anybody is right or wrong here. I would not agree that prices are at the 2003 level. As I posted, they are “heading” in that direction, I think they will get there but no they are not there yet. Your point rings true that in other areas of the county we are certainly at 2003 prices while indeed we have not reached them yet here. I do think ocr’s point was to say that hey here is one here and one there, yes cherry picking, yet that is how it starts right? However people on this board tend to get all worked up and yes, they sometimes do take a distressed listing and extrapolate it to a much broader extreme which is erroneous to do.

Finally my point about the two comps was not to point out they are stale by any means, it was more to point out that the volume is low. Admittedly I am not an expert at this particular subdivision so maybe that volume is good for the size of the subdivision. I would say that the trend will keep putting pricing pressure on this subdivision (and area as a whole) such that we will see 03 prices here…. not sure when though.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

Huh? Didnt miss the Camino verde pending? Of course you did. You took a short cut and searched by subdivision rather than searching by zip and pulling out the applicable comps by street name which caused you to miss it.

As for not being at 2003 prices, my point is that there is no such thing. Prices changed so dramatically throughout 2003 that you need to refer to a specific month or at least season in 2003 when refering to pricing levels. Much of North County and I suspect the rest of the county is seeing sales at prices we last saw in late 2003. That of course is nowhere near early 2003 prices.

Finally, two comps in the last 60 days is hardly low volume. In fact with the pendings its pretty darn high volume.

[SD Realtor]

Yes that is correct, I did do my search by putting the subdivision in and searching on that text string. As I said, I do not know much about the subdivision nor do I know all of the streets in the subdivision so it would not make sense for me to do a street search would it? For all I know there also could have been more cancelled/expireds/withdrawns on other streets within that subdivision but where the realtor didn’t put in the subdivision name so how am I to do the search if I do not know the boundaries? Surely you wouldn’t suggest doing a street search on every street in the subdivision would you?

If we are going to nitpick each other then let’s cover all the bases shall we?

As far as putting a label on 2003 pricing I do agree with your statement 100%. 2003 may be one of the wildest years ever for socal real estate and the disparity for early 03 verses late 03 is quite substantial.

SD Realtor

[ocrenter]

looks like I got sd realtor in full flaming mode.

good grief. I forgot this part of sd realtor’s personality.

for the sake of the forum, I’m backing off.

I was wrong, sd realtor is completely right. afterall, he is a REALTOR®, and I’m just a guy with too much time on my hand.

[JWM in SD]

That’s okay OCrenter. It is largely because he knows where this ultimately headed and it’s not good for him.

[Raybyrnes]

I might be missing something but I would think that right now is probably a great time to be an Experienced Realtor. Bank inventories are growing. I would think that you get one account and you are on easy street. They might require a little bit more paperwork but once you have your staff trained you can create a significant value add to the clients you represent. Additionally the small realtors who got into the business to help their friends are being flushed out. Sure their is a little pain as you go through the transition but ultimately you can come out way ahead. No different than when a factory has to retool. Things slow down and then produciton increases.

[Raybyrnes]

I might be missing something but I would think that right now is probably a great time to be an Experienced Realtor. Bank inventories are growing. I would think that you get one account and you are on easy street. They might require a little bit more paperwork but once you have your staff trained you can create a significant value add to the clients you represent. Additionally the small realtors who got into the business to help their friends are being flushed out. Sure their is a little pain as you go through the transition but ultimately you can come out way ahead. No different than when a factory has to retool. Things slow down and then produciton increases.

[Raybyrnes]

I might be missing something but I would think that right now is probably a great time to be an Experienced Realtor. Bank inventories are growing. I would think that you get one account and you are on easy street. They might require a little bit more paperwork but once you have your staff trained you can create a significant value add to the clients you represent. Additionally the small realtors who got into the business to help their friends are being flushed out. Sure their is a little pain as you go through the transition but ultimately you can come out way ahead. No different than when a factory has to retool. Things slow down and then produciton increases.

[Raybyrnes]

I might be missing something but I would think that right now is probably a great time to be an Experienced Realtor. Bank inventories are growing. I would think that you get one account and you are on easy street. They might require a little bit more paperwork but once you have your staff trained you can create a significant value add to the clients you represent. Additionally the small realtors who got into the business to help their friends are being flushed out. Sure their is a little pain as you go through the transition but ultimately you can come out way ahead. No different than when a factory has to retool. Things slow down and then produciton increases.

[sdrealtor]

JWM
Quite to the contrary a substantial decline in prices would be great for me. The quicker the better. First, I have the assets, income and knowledge to exploit the heck out of a market at its bottom. Second, lower prices will ultimately increase sales volume and create another huge income stream to me selling investment properties and homes to my personal network.

As for being in full flame mode, you guys know how much more I have. I just calling a spade a spade here. We all are on the same boat as to where we think the market is heading. We just differ in where we think we are now and how fast we’ll get to where were going.

[patientlywaiting]

I just calling a spade a spade here.

So you want empirical proof the that market is dropping to a certain level before you would concede that it reached that level? I wonder when the market recovers and booms again, if you'll tell your clients "well the market is not that high yet, so let's be realistic in pricing." Or will you tell your clients "let's shoot for that 20% extra, because I think you'll get it."

I'm guessing that you'll go for the latter because that will create new comps and new listing opportunities. You're not going to wait for proof-positive comps before you price higher. So why wait for comps to price lower?

My point is that the current "value" to a buyer is based in large part by expectations for the near future. I believe that ocrenter is calling that near future very accurately for San Marcos.

 

[sdrealtor]

You are talking apples and oranges. My recent point has been assessing the accuracy of our predictions as of this date. That is looking backward. There is no question as to whom has been more accurate. Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.

When i am advising clients as to what I think will happen that is looking forward and my advice will follow what i believe is coming.

You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.

[ocrenter]

“Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed.” sdrealtor, 6/06

“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.” ocrenter 8/06

“You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor, 11/07

491 CAMINO VERDE, San Marcos, CA 92078 (1909 sqft)
–11/19/07: asking $396,000

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2259 sqft)
–11/21/07: asking $430,000

the story has just begun.

[farbet]

OC Renter you are right on the Money as usual !!
How about Blueridge estates = 795 Joy Court,92078 and 2 others next door.
I think SD REALTOR is still wearing his “realtor bias”-low commissions(you think ?)

[blackbox]

yep, it really goes to show that even reasonable thinking realtors had no clue how bad this thing was going to get, and it will get worst. Please everyone, just wait until there is a 3 month consistant uptick in prices before you even think of getting in as a buyer. No one has a clue where this one will bottom. I might even get stupid low before the uptick, and levels off at affortabiltiy (income/home price). A housing bubble like this has never ever happened so no one with even 30 years RE experience knows what the downside will look like. These guys are as clueless as the rest of us in calling a bottom. Specifically don’t follow the advise of people that make money out of your purchase even if you overpay or not………

2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor,

What a joke!

[TheBreeze]

I trust realtors about as far as I can throw them. These guys typically don’t have a clue and are just looking for their next commission. Besides, isn’t sdrealtor the dude who is down like $100K on a recent home purchase? Or is that the other one?

[TheBreeze]

I trust realtors about as far as I can throw them. These guys typically don’t have a clue and are just looking for their next commission. Besides, isn’t sdrealtor the dude who is down like $100K on a recent home purchase? Or is that the other one?

[TheBreeze]

I trust realtors about as far as I can throw them. These guys typically don’t have a clue and are just looking for their next commission. Besides, isn’t sdrealtor the dude who is down like $100K on a recent home purchase? Or is that the other one?

[TheBreeze]

I trust realtors about as far as I can throw them. These guys typically don’t have a clue and are just looking for their next commission. Besides, isn’t sdrealtor the dude who is down like $100K on a recent home purchase? Or is that the other one?

[TheBreeze]

I trust realtors about as far as I can throw them. These guys typically don’t have a clue and are just looking for their next commission. Besides, isn’t sdrealtor the dude who is down like $100K on a recent home purchase? Or is that the other one?

[blackbox]

yep, it really goes to show that even reasonable thinking realtors had no clue how bad this thing was going to get, and it will get worst. Please everyone, just wait until there is a 3 month consistant uptick in prices before you even think of getting in as a buyer. No one has a clue where this one will bottom. I might even get stupid low before the uptick, and levels off at affortabiltiy (income/home price). A housing bubble like this has never ever happened so no one with even 30 years RE experience knows what the downside will look like. These guys are as clueless as the rest of us in calling a bottom. Specifically don’t follow the advise of people that make money out of your purchase even if you overpay or not………

2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor,

What a joke!

[blackbox]

yep, it really goes to show that even reasonable thinking realtors had no clue how bad this thing was going to get, and it will get worst. Please everyone, just wait until there is a 3 month consistant uptick in prices before you even think of getting in as a buyer. No one has a clue where this one will bottom. I might even get stupid low before the uptick, and levels off at affortabiltiy (income/home price). A housing bubble like this has never ever happened so no one with even 30 years RE experience knows what the downside will look like. These guys are as clueless as the rest of us in calling a bottom. Specifically don’t follow the advise of people that make money out of your purchase even if you overpay or not………

2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor,

What a joke!

[blackbox]

yep, it really goes to show that even reasonable thinking realtors had no clue how bad this thing was going to get, and it will get worst. Please everyone, just wait until there is a 3 month consistant uptick in prices before you even think of getting in as a buyer. No one has a clue where this one will bottom. I might even get stupid low before the uptick, and levels off at affortabiltiy (income/home price). A housing bubble like this has never ever happened so no one with even 30 years RE experience knows what the downside will look like. These guys are as clueless as the rest of us in calling a bottom. Specifically don’t follow the advise of people that make money out of your purchase even if you overpay or not………

2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor,

What a joke!

[blackbox]

yep, it really goes to show that even reasonable thinking realtors had no clue how bad this thing was going to get, and it will get worst. Please everyone, just wait until there is a 3 month consistant uptick in prices before you even think of getting in as a buyer. No one has a clue where this one will bottom. I might even get stupid low before the uptick, and levels off at affortabiltiy (income/home price). A housing bubble like this has never ever happened so no one with even 30 years RE experience knows what the downside will look like. These guys are as clueless as the rest of us in calling a bottom. Specifically don’t follow the advise of people that make money out of your purchase even if you overpay or not………

2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor,

What a joke!

[ocrenter]

for the record, sdrealtor is the realtor in question. SD Realtor has been very supportive of the bear position.

as for those Blueridge estate homes, good grief!

797 JOY CT, San Marcos, CA 92078 (4243 sqft)
–10/31/2006: sold for $1,185,000
–11/19/2007: offered for $824,000 ($361k off, 30% drop in 1 year)

795 JOY COURT, San Marcos, CA 92078 (4226 sqft)
–09/27/2006: sold for $1,095,000
–11/14/2007: offered for $839,900 ($255k off, 23% drop in a little over 1 year)

that’s two foreclosures side by side. meanwhile a homeowner just down the street is entertaining offers between $895,000 – $925,000… looks like it’ll be three REOs on the street in due time.

[SD Realtor]

farbet, breee and blackbox, both sdrealtor and myself, SD Realtor) are of the opinion that we are in a heavy bear market and that there will be continued depreciation that will be substantial. I am not sure where you guys derived opinions that are otherwise.

Now in this particular thread sdrealtor has taken a different stance regarding some of the particular properties that ocrenter has researched. The argument is not that these properties are at a certain price level (with regards to the past) but has the entire area depreciated to a given level…(ie, is the entire area at 2003 pricing, or are a few homes at 2003 pricing)

Finally the point sdrealtor is also making is that in 2003 there was incredible appreciation, that is pricing in February of 2003 was substantially different then pricing in November of 2003 so taking the year as a whole is quite subjective.

ocrenter continues to find major price reductions and distress sales in the area and like the tide going out, eventually it will be true that the entire area will hit November 03 pricing and then February 03 pricing. Will that happen in a month, or in a year or in two years is anyone’s guess.

Hope I clarified things.

[SD Realtor]

farbet, breee and blackbox, both sdrealtor and myself, SD Realtor) are of the opinion that we are in a heavy bear market and that there will be continued depreciation that will be substantial. I am not sure where you guys derived opinions that are otherwise.

Now in this particular thread sdrealtor has taken a different stance regarding some of the particular properties that ocrenter has researched. The argument is not that these properties are at a certain price level (with regards to the past) but has the entire area depreciated to a given level…(ie, is the entire area at 2003 pricing, or are a few homes at 2003 pricing)

Finally the point sdrealtor is also making is that in 2003 there was incredible appreciation, that is pricing in February of 2003 was substantially different then pricing in November of 2003 so taking the year as a whole is quite subjective.

ocrenter continues to find major price reductions and distress sales in the area and like the tide going out, eventually it will be true that the entire area will hit November 03 pricing and then February 03 pricing. Will that happen in a month, or in a year or in two years is anyone’s guess.

Hope I clarified things.

[SD Realtor]

farbet, breee and blackbox, both sdrealtor and myself, SD Realtor) are of the opinion that we are in a heavy bear market and that there will be continued depreciation that will be substantial. I am not sure where you guys derived opinions that are otherwise.

Now in this particular thread sdrealtor has taken a different stance regarding some of the particular properties that ocrenter has researched. The argument is not that these properties are at a certain price level (with regards to the past) but has the entire area depreciated to a given level…(ie, is the entire area at 2003 pricing, or are a few homes at 2003 pricing)

Finally the point sdrealtor is also making is that in 2003 there was incredible appreciation, that is pricing in February of 2003 was substantially different then pricing in November of 2003 so taking the year as a whole is quite subjective.

ocrenter continues to find major price reductions and distress sales in the area and like the tide going out, eventually it will be true that the entire area will hit November 03 pricing and then February 03 pricing. Will that happen in a month, or in a year or in two years is anyone’s guess.

Hope I clarified things.

[SD Realtor]

farbet, breee and blackbox, both sdrealtor and myself, SD Realtor) are of the opinion that we are in a heavy bear market and that there will be continued depreciation that will be substantial. I am not sure where you guys derived opinions that are otherwise.

Now in this particular thread sdrealtor has taken a different stance regarding some of the particular properties that ocrenter has researched. The argument is not that these properties are at a certain price level (with regards to the past) but has the entire area depreciated to a given level…(ie, is the entire area at 2003 pricing, or are a few homes at 2003 pricing)

Finally the point sdrealtor is also making is that in 2003 there was incredible appreciation, that is pricing in February of 2003 was substantially different then pricing in November of 2003 so taking the year as a whole is quite subjective.

ocrenter continues to find major price reductions and distress sales in the area and like the tide going out, eventually it will be true that the entire area will hit November 03 pricing and then February 03 pricing. Will that happen in a month, or in a year or in two years is anyone’s guess.

Hope I clarified things.

[SD Realtor]

farbet, breee and blackbox, both sdrealtor and myself, SD Realtor) are of the opinion that we are in a heavy bear market and that there will be continued depreciation that will be substantial. I am not sure where you guys derived opinions that are otherwise.

Now in this particular thread sdrealtor has taken a different stance regarding some of the particular properties that ocrenter has researched. The argument is not that these properties are at a certain price level (with regards to the past) but has the entire area depreciated to a given level…(ie, is the entire area at 2003 pricing, or are a few homes at 2003 pricing)

Finally the point sdrealtor is also making is that in 2003 there was incredible appreciation, that is pricing in February of 2003 was substantially different then pricing in November of 2003 so taking the year as a whole is quite subjective.

ocrenter continues to find major price reductions and distress sales in the area and like the tide going out, eventually it will be true that the entire area will hit November 03 pricing and then February 03 pricing. Will that happen in a month, or in a year or in two years is anyone’s guess.

Hope I clarified things.

[ocrenter]

for the record, sdrealtor is the realtor in question. SD Realtor has been very supportive of the bear position.

as for those Blueridge estate homes, good grief!

797 JOY CT, San Marcos, CA 92078 (4243 sqft)
–10/31/2006: sold for $1,185,000
–11/19/2007: offered for $824,000 ($361k off, 30% drop in 1 year)

795 JOY COURT, San Marcos, CA 92078 (4226 sqft)
–09/27/2006: sold for $1,095,000
–11/14/2007: offered for $839,900 ($255k off, 23% drop in a little over 1 year)

that’s two foreclosures side by side. meanwhile a homeowner just down the street is entertaining offers between $895,000 – $925,000… looks like it’ll be three REOs on the street in due time.

[ocrenter]

for the record, sdrealtor is the realtor in question. SD Realtor has been very supportive of the bear position.

as for those Blueridge estate homes, good grief!

797 JOY CT, San Marcos, CA 92078 (4243 sqft)
–10/31/2006: sold for $1,185,000
–11/19/2007: offered for $824,000 ($361k off, 30% drop in 1 year)

795 JOY COURT, San Marcos, CA 92078 (4226 sqft)
–09/27/2006: sold for $1,095,000
–11/14/2007: offered for $839,900 ($255k off, 23% drop in a little over 1 year)

that’s two foreclosures side by side. meanwhile a homeowner just down the street is entertaining offers between $895,000 – $925,000… looks like it’ll be three REOs on the street in due time.

[ocrenter]

for the record, sdrealtor is the realtor in question. SD Realtor has been very supportive of the bear position.

as for those Blueridge estate homes, good grief!

797 JOY CT, San Marcos, CA 92078 (4243 sqft)
–10/31/2006: sold for $1,185,000
–11/19/2007: offered for $824,000 ($361k off, 30% drop in 1 year)

795 JOY COURT, San Marcos, CA 92078 (4226 sqft)
–09/27/2006: sold for $1,095,000
–11/14/2007: offered for $839,900 ($255k off, 23% drop in a little over 1 year)

that’s two foreclosures side by side. meanwhile a homeowner just down the street is entertaining offers between $895,000 – $925,000… looks like it’ll be three REOs on the street in due time.

[ocrenter]

for the record, sdrealtor is the realtor in question. SD Realtor has been very supportive of the bear position.

as for those Blueridge estate homes, good grief!

797 JOY CT, San Marcos, CA 92078 (4243 sqft)
–10/31/2006: sold for $1,185,000
–11/19/2007: offered for $824,000 ($361k off, 30% drop in 1 year)

795 JOY COURT, San Marcos, CA 92078 (4226 sqft)
–09/27/2006: sold for $1,095,000
–11/14/2007: offered for $839,900 ($255k off, 23% drop in a little over 1 year)

that’s two foreclosures side by side. meanwhile a homeowner just down the street is entertaining offers between $895,000 – $925,000… looks like it’ll be three REOs on the street in due time.

[farbet]

OC Renter you are right on the Money as usual !!
How about Blueridge estates = 795 Joy Court,92078 and 2 others next door.
I think SD REALTOR is still wearing his “realtor bias”-low commissions(you think ?)

[farbet]

OC Renter you are right on the Money as usual !!
How about Blueridge estates = 795 Joy Court,92078 and 2 others next door.
I think SD REALTOR is still wearing his “realtor bias”-low commissions(you think ?)

[farbet]

OC Renter you are right on the Money as usual !!
How about Blueridge estates = 795 Joy Court,92078 and 2 others next door.
I think SD REALTOR is still wearing his “realtor bias”-low commissions(you think ?)

[farbet]

OC Renter you are right on the Money as usual !!
How about Blueridge estates = 795 Joy Court,92078 and 2 others next door.
I think SD REALTOR is still wearing his “realtor bias”-low commissions(you think ?)

[sdrealtor]

Gimme Break!

OCR,
The story hasnt just begun! It began about 4 years at the beginning of 2004 when things got completely whacked! I still stand by my comments that you mocked 100% and will be back on 12/31/07 to taunt you in return. There is NO WAY you will see “the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story!”

I thought you were smart enough to realize that extraordinary low asking prices set on short sales are intended to bring offers to the table so the seller can at least find out what the bank will do?

Breeze,
I own my dream home that I have been in for about a decade with a very low mortgage locked in for 30 yrs well below 6%. Not that I’ll ever sell but it is still worth at least 2X what I paid. I could write a check today and pay it off if I wanted to. I also own 2 other very profitable businesses that provide most of my income completely unrelated to RE. RE commissions are nice but certainly not something I sit around waiting for.

All,
Those Joy Ct homes are ridiculous! Have any of you ever been in one? I have. They are huge McMansions in a lousy location overlooking a busy road, industrial parks and what looks like a swamp or toxic waste. Frankly, I cant believe that anyone ever bought one at any price.

SD R,
Thank you for being the voice of reason. I am as bearish as anyone. The big difference is that I (and you) understand how this plays out on a micro level. Things take time! Most of the folks out here as guilty of greed and impatience as the the FB’s who bought on the way up.

Patience Grasshoppahs! It’s coming….

Lastly, OCR a belated “Your Welcome” as I have provided you leads for some of the best material on your blog without taking credit.

sdr

[ocrenter]

sdr, thanks for the anonymous leads, perhaps pick a handle so credit is given.

I only focus on this because you are so absolute about this. Look, if there are 3700 sqft REOs in the general area going for $600k, and 4300 sqft homes dropping down to the low 800k, low $400k for these homes as the current market value is not unreasonable. while these are short sales, the fact that they have to keep dropping on their asking price to me indicates where the market truly is.

everywhere around this development has seen 20-30% drops in prices over the last year. low $400k would be in-line with that drop.

[sdrealtor]

ocr,
While what you explain seems reasonable on the outside it isnt as reasonable on the inside. It’s all about price compression. There is a minimum price entry point for housing in the area and as newer homes Belleza is above that by a certain margin. Once you reach 600K and 800K for the bigger homes, you start competing with older entry level homes in more desirable locations like Carlsbad/Encinitas. Ultimately this will push down the prices of Belleza but it takes time. patience Grasshoppah!

[patientlywaiting]

Seems to me like the Realtors are backward looking, just like an appraiser would be. They look at sold comps to gauge value, today.

ocrenter is more forward looking in that he looks at the direction market by reviewing asking prices.

The asking prices are dropping and dropping, so it’s only a matter of time until we have closed sales confirmation of the downward trend.

One may wish to debate what the market is at, today. Why bother when all the signs point to lower and lower prices.

There was a time when sellers asked for the moon, got it and drove the market higher and higher. We now have opposite situation where sellers need to get ahead of the curve, and take some painful losses if they want to sell. They will drive the market lower and lower.

Patience is what is needed.

[patientlywaiting]

I do agree that the short sales are priced low to elicit offers that the FBs can submit to the lenders to try to pressure them.

However, by listing low the short sale FBs submarine the whole neighborhood and cause the legitimate sales to rot away.

Technically, asking prices are not comps (only sold transactions are). But ocrenter is right in that the direction of the market is down to at least the short sale asking prices.

During the boom, it was not unknown for Realtors to collude to manipulate asking prices and drive the prices up. In essence they used the asking prices as comps. And now, the Reators won’t accept asking as comps? I see a certain self-serving dichotomy here.

[patientlywaiting]

I do agree that the short sales are priced low to elicit offers that the FBs can submit to the lenders to try to pressure them.

However, by listing low the short sale FBs submarine the whole neighborhood and cause the legitimate sales to rot away.

Technically, asking prices are not comps (only sold transactions are). But ocrenter is right in that the direction of the market is down to at least the short sale asking prices.

During the boom, it was not unknown for Realtors to collude to manipulate asking prices and drive the prices up. In essence they used the asking prices as comps. And now, the Reators won’t accept asking as comps? I see a certain self-serving dichotomy here.

[patientlywaiting]

I do agree that the short sales are priced low to elicit offers that the FBs can submit to the lenders to try to pressure them.

However, by listing low the short sale FBs submarine the whole neighborhood and cause the legitimate sales to rot away.

Technically, asking prices are not comps (only sold transactions are). But ocrenter is right in that the direction of the market is down to at least the short sale asking prices.

During the boom, it was not unknown for Realtors to collude to manipulate asking prices and drive the prices up. In essence they used the asking prices as comps. And now, the Reators won’t accept asking as comps? I see a certain self-serving dichotomy here.

[patientlywaiting]

I do agree that the short sales are priced low to elicit offers that the FBs can submit to the lenders to try to pressure them.

However, by listing low the short sale FBs submarine the whole neighborhood and cause the legitimate sales to rot away.

Technically, asking prices are not comps (only sold transactions are). But ocrenter is right in that the direction of the market is down to at least the short sale asking prices.

During the boom, it was not unknown for Realtors to collude to manipulate asking prices and drive the prices up. In essence they used the asking prices as comps. And now, the Reators won’t accept asking as comps? I see a certain self-serving dichotomy here.

[patientlywaiting]

I do agree that the short sales are priced low to elicit offers that the FBs can submit to the lenders to try to pressure them.

However, by listing low the short sale FBs submarine the whole neighborhood and cause the legitimate sales to rot away.

Technically, asking prices are not comps (only sold transactions are). But ocrenter is right in that the direction of the market is down to at least the short sale asking prices.

During the boom, it was not unknown for Realtors to collude to manipulate asking prices and drive the prices up. In essence they used the asking prices as comps. And now, the Reators won’t accept asking as comps? I see a certain self-serving dichotomy here.

[Ex-SD]

There are no rules or laws that prevent any house from losing value to less than what it sold for when they were new, several years ago. A home could have sold for $500k new in 2004 but if there are no takers and the house winds up as an REO, the bank will not sit on it forever and will keep dropping the price until it sells. That price could be $200k, $300k or $400k. All that matters is what someone is willing to pay for it and do they have the money (or can they get a loan) to close the sale. This happens with cars, jewelry and any other item of value that is for sale every day of the year.

[sdrealtor]

Ex-SD
You only got it half right when you say “All that matters is what someone is willing to pay for it and do they have the money (or can they get a loan) to close the sale”. That is what we call a willing buyer. The other half that matters is what we call a willing seller. That half depends upon what someone is willing to accept and is able to accept. Until the two meet we dont have a market price.

I’m sure there are plenty of willing and able buyers for $1 homes but there are no willing sellers. this is an extreme example but it points out that there must be both.

[Ex-SD]

sdrealtor: I think that too many people and possibly you, have been immersed in the SoCal real estate game so long that you don’t really realize what happens in most of the rest of the USA. Things have been so out of whack and crazy in CA when it comes to housing prices that it’s easy to get totally out of touch with reality. I believe that there will be plenty of willing sellers (The Banks) when they eat enough of these properties and they sit on them long enough. Several markets (not just one) in Florida have already had builders selling their remaining inventory of new homes at 50% less than they were selling them for just a year or two ago and in Sacramento, there are REO’s that the banks have priced at 50% discounts (homes less than 3-4 years old) to move them but they can’t find qualified buyers. Wanna guess the financial hit that they’ll wind up taking on those? My point is that these tract homes have no special pedestal that they sit on and just because a bunch of fools bought into the game and drank the kool-aid by paying too much for these homes when they were new. They may only be several years old but that doesn’t meant that they can’t see some severe drops when enough standing inventory sits on the lenders books for too long a period and the stockholders start demanding that they do something about it. I worked as an executive for several very large corporations and also was the CEO of a large retail corporation for 15 years and I’ve seen the pressure come raining down from the stockholders too many times. I think that it will also happen when it comes to the REO inventory that is growing like wild weeds. Add to that, the homeowners who will have to sell due to job transfers, divorces and job loses and will have to compete with the REO’s and you’re going to see some big drops in pricing. Simple logic tells me that the good ole times for the CA real estate market have gone bye-bye for quite a few years to come.

[farbet]

Ditto Ditto EX SD
SD Realtor things are really bad out there from conversations with folks that I know. We are in a recession.Bernake is sugar coating the numbers. The next step are layoffs then “panic”
Its worst than the 90 -91 recession of “Read my lips”GHWBush tax increases.

[farbet]

Ditto Ditto EX SD
SD Realtor things are really bad out there from conversations with folks that I know. We are in a recession.Bernake is sugar coating the numbers. The next step are layoffs then “panic”
Its worst than the 90 -91 recession of “Read my lips”GHWBush tax increases.

[farbet]

Ditto Ditto EX SD
SD Realtor things are really bad out there from conversations with folks that I know. We are in a recession.Bernake is sugar coating the numbers. The next step are layoffs then “panic”
Its worst than the 90 -91 recession of “Read my lips”GHWBush tax increases.

[farbet]

Ditto Ditto EX SD
SD Realtor things are really bad out there from conversations with folks that I know. We are in a recession.Bernake is sugar coating the numbers. The next step are layoffs then “panic”
Its worst than the 90 -91 recession of “Read my lips”GHWBush tax increases.

[farbet]

Ditto Ditto EX SD
SD Realtor things are really bad out there from conversations with folks that I know. We are in a recession.Bernake is sugar coating the numbers. The next step are layoffs then “panic”
Its worst than the 90 -91 recession of “Read my lips”GHWBush tax increases.

[SD Realtor]

I don’t think it is a matter of if… it is and always has been a matter of when. As many great leads that ocrenter pulls up that are foreclosures, there are sales. There are sales in Carmel Valley, there are sales in La Costa Valley and there are sales in 4S Ranch, Scripps, Sabre Springs… etc………I cannot tell you how many people I have that are patient buyers yet are very frustrated by the rate of decline. They all ask me why people are still paying premiums for homes like this and all I can tell them is because they do. I show then the stats that the volume of sales are down but that doesn’t console them.

This is what I do not understand. Nobody is arguing that the market will not go down, nor is anyone saying that prices will not drop dramatically. It seems to me that there is some displaced anger or whatever trying to justify that we HAVE TO HAVE big drops. Well we don’t HAVE TO HAVE anything. Will they happen? In my opinion yes. Could it be this spring? Next Summmer? 09? I don’t know… probably sometime in the next few years.

If you truly think that homes in 4S are gonna for for 400k and the same for Carmel Valley then so be it? Maybe they will and maybe they won’t. I do know of plenty of people who will buy before they get there though.

The fact is that real estate moves slow. Do I think the banks are sitting on properties and holding them out? Perhaps they are. Do I think banks are sitting on properties in Carmel Valley or La Costa Valley? No I don’t.

Try to have some patience.

[eyePod]

Big SDR and little sdr – wow! I guess if you’re a realtor then you are bad. You guys really add a lot to this site.

[ocrenter]

this never was about realtor bashing. when I bash realtors I make sure to pull the capitalized and trademarked “REALTOR®.” and sdr and SDR have contributed way too much to ever deserve that.

I do echo the call for patience. just sit back for a moment and think about this. When in history have we seen homes drop $200-$300k just in a year? I remember my folks being unhappy when their equity in WestLA dropped by $30k from peak to valley from ’89 to ’96. good grief, they are STILL talking about it like it was yesterday. And now we see drops of $200k in a single year and people are throwing out quotes about how certain predictions weren’t met (in reference to the 4S REO).

[Bugs]

Years, not months. The spike took 7 years to build. If we are predicting that the market will eventually overcorrect below the long term trend it’s gonna take at least 7 years (from 2005) to get there.

[patientlywaiting]

Just because people do certain things, doesn’t mean you have to. And they are not necessarily good examples to follow. Watch what others do and learn from their mistakes.

Buying a house is like marriage. It takes commitment. If you’re not sure, then don’t buy; otherwise, divorcing the POS will cost you very dearly.

[patientlywaiting]

Just because people do certain things, doesn’t mean you have to. And they are not necessarily good examples to follow. Watch what others do and learn from their mistakes.

Buying a house is like marriage. It takes commitment. If you’re not sure, then don’t buy; otherwise, divorcing the POS will cost you very dearly.

[patientlywaiting]

Just because people do certain things, doesn’t mean you have to. And they are not necessarily good examples to follow. Watch what others do and learn from their mistakes.

Buying a house is like marriage. It takes commitment. If you’re not sure, then don’t buy; otherwise, divorcing the POS will cost you very dearly.

[patientlywaiting]

Just because people do certain things, doesn’t mean you have to. And they are not necessarily good examples to follow. Watch what others do and learn from their mistakes.

Buying a house is like marriage. It takes commitment. If you’re not sure, then don’t buy; otherwise, divorcing the POS will cost you very dearly.

[patientlywaiting]

Just because people do certain things, doesn’t mean you have to. And they are not necessarily good examples to follow. Watch what others do and learn from their mistakes.

Buying a house is like marriage. It takes commitment. If you’re not sure, then don’t buy; otherwise, divorcing the POS will cost you very dearly.

[Bugs]

Years, not months. The spike took 7 years to build. If we are predicting that the market will eventually overcorrect below the long term trend it’s gonna take at least 7 years (from 2005) to get there.

[Bugs]

Years, not months. The spike took 7 years to build. If we are predicting that the market will eventually overcorrect below the long term trend it’s gonna take at least 7 years (from 2005) to get there.

[Bugs]

Years, not months. The spike took 7 years to build. If we are predicting that the market will eventually overcorrect below the long term trend it’s gonna take at least 7 years (from 2005) to get there.

[Bugs]

Years, not months. The spike took 7 years to build. If we are predicting that the market will eventually overcorrect below the long term trend it’s gonna take at least 7 years (from 2005) to get there.

[ocrenter]

this never was about realtor bashing. when I bash realtors I make sure to pull the capitalized and trademarked “REALTOR®.” and sdr and SDR have contributed way too much to ever deserve that.

I do echo the call for patience. just sit back for a moment and think about this. When in history have we seen homes drop $200-$300k just in a year? I remember my folks being unhappy when their equity in WestLA dropped by $30k from peak to valley from ’89 to ’96. good grief, they are STILL talking about it like it was yesterday. And now we see drops of $200k in a single year and people are throwing out quotes about how certain predictions weren’t met (in reference to the 4S REO).

[ocrenter]

this never was about realtor bashing. when I bash realtors I make sure to pull the capitalized and trademarked “REALTOR®.” and sdr and SDR have contributed way too much to ever deserve that.

I do echo the call for patience. just sit back for a moment and think about this. When in history have we seen homes drop $200-$300k just in a year? I remember my folks being unhappy when their equity in WestLA dropped by $30k from peak to valley from ’89 to ’96. good grief, they are STILL talking about it like it was yesterday. And now we see drops of $200k in a single year and people are throwing out quotes about how certain predictions weren’t met (in reference to the 4S REO).

[ocrenter]

this never was about realtor bashing. when I bash realtors I make sure to pull the capitalized and trademarked “REALTOR®.” and sdr and SDR have contributed way too much to ever deserve that.

I do echo the call for patience. just sit back for a moment and think about this. When in history have we seen homes drop $200-$300k just in a year? I remember my folks being unhappy when their equity in WestLA dropped by $30k from peak to valley from ’89 to ’96. good grief, they are STILL talking about it like it was yesterday. And now we see drops of $200k in a single year and people are throwing out quotes about how certain predictions weren’t met (in reference to the 4S REO).

[ocrenter]

this never was about realtor bashing. when I bash realtors I make sure to pull the capitalized and trademarked “REALTOR®.” and sdr and SDR have contributed way too much to ever deserve that.

I do echo the call for patience. just sit back for a moment and think about this. When in history have we seen homes drop $200-$300k just in a year? I remember my folks being unhappy when their equity in WestLA dropped by $30k from peak to valley from ’89 to ’96. good grief, they are STILL talking about it like it was yesterday. And now we see drops of $200k in a single year and people are throwing out quotes about how certain predictions weren’t met (in reference to the 4S REO).

[eyePod]

Big SDR and little sdr – wow! I guess if you’re a realtor then you are bad. You guys really add a lot to this site.

[eyePod]

Big SDR and little sdr – wow! I guess if you’re a realtor then you are bad. You guys really add a lot to this site.

[eyePod]

Big SDR and little sdr – wow! I guess if you’re a realtor then you are bad. You guys really add a lot to this site.

[eyePod]

Big SDR and little sdr – wow! I guess if you’re a realtor then you are bad. You guys really add a lot to this site.

[SD Realtor]

I don’t think it is a matter of if… it is and always has been a matter of when. As many great leads that ocrenter pulls up that are foreclosures, there are sales. There are sales in Carmel Valley, there are sales in La Costa Valley and there are sales in 4S Ranch, Scripps, Sabre Springs… etc………I cannot tell you how many people I have that are patient buyers yet are very frustrated by the rate of decline. They all ask me why people are still paying premiums for homes like this and all I can tell them is because they do. I show then the stats that the volume of sales are down but that doesn’t console them.

This is what I do not understand. Nobody is arguing that the market will not go down, nor is anyone saying that prices will not drop dramatically. It seems to me that there is some displaced anger or whatever trying to justify that we HAVE TO HAVE big drops. Well we don’t HAVE TO HAVE anything. Will they happen? In my opinion yes. Could it be this spring? Next Summmer? 09? I don’t know… probably sometime in the next few years.

If you truly think that homes in 4S are gonna for for 400k and the same for Carmel Valley then so be it? Maybe they will and maybe they won’t. I do know of plenty of people who will buy before they get there though.

The fact is that real estate moves slow. Do I think the banks are sitting on properties and holding them out? Perhaps they are. Do I think banks are sitting on properties in Carmel Valley or La Costa Valley? No I don’t.

Try to have some patience.

[SD Realtor]

I don’t think it is a matter of if… it is and always has been a matter of when. As many great leads that ocrenter pulls up that are foreclosures, there are sales. There are sales in Carmel Valley, there are sales in La Costa Valley and there are sales in 4S Ranch, Scripps, Sabre Springs… etc………I cannot tell you how many people I have that are patient buyers yet are very frustrated by the rate of decline. They all ask me why people are still paying premiums for homes like this and all I can tell them is because they do. I show then the stats that the volume of sales are down but that doesn’t console them.

This is what I do not understand. Nobody is arguing that the market will not go down, nor is anyone saying that prices will not drop dramatically. It seems to me that there is some displaced anger or whatever trying to justify that we HAVE TO HAVE big drops. Well we don’t HAVE TO HAVE anything. Will they happen? In my opinion yes. Could it be this spring? Next Summmer? 09? I don’t know… probably sometime in the next few years.

If you truly think that homes in 4S are gonna for for 400k and the same for Carmel Valley then so be it? Maybe they will and maybe they won’t. I do know of plenty of people who will buy before they get there though.

The fact is that real estate moves slow. Do I think the banks are sitting on properties and holding them out? Perhaps they are. Do I think banks are sitting on properties in Carmel Valley or La Costa Valley? No I don’t.

Try to have some patience.

[SD Realtor]

I don’t think it is a matter of if… it is and always has been a matter of when. As many great leads that ocrenter pulls up that are foreclosures, there are sales. There are sales in Carmel Valley, there are sales in La Costa Valley and there are sales in 4S Ranch, Scripps, Sabre Springs… etc………I cannot tell you how many people I have that are patient buyers yet are very frustrated by the rate of decline. They all ask me why people are still paying premiums for homes like this and all I can tell them is because they do. I show then the stats that the volume of sales are down but that doesn’t console them.

This is what I do not understand. Nobody is arguing that the market will not go down, nor is anyone saying that prices will not drop dramatically. It seems to me that there is some displaced anger or whatever trying to justify that we HAVE TO HAVE big drops. Well we don’t HAVE TO HAVE anything. Will they happen? In my opinion yes. Could it be this spring? Next Summmer? 09? I don’t know… probably sometime in the next few years.

If you truly think that homes in 4S are gonna for for 400k and the same for Carmel Valley then so be it? Maybe they will and maybe they won’t. I do know of plenty of people who will buy before they get there though.

The fact is that real estate moves slow. Do I think the banks are sitting on properties and holding them out? Perhaps they are. Do I think banks are sitting on properties in Carmel Valley or La Costa Valley? No I don’t.

Try to have some patience.

[SD Realtor]

I don’t think it is a matter of if… it is and always has been a matter of when. As many great leads that ocrenter pulls up that are foreclosures, there are sales. There are sales in Carmel Valley, there are sales in La Costa Valley and there are sales in 4S Ranch, Scripps, Sabre Springs… etc………I cannot tell you how many people I have that are patient buyers yet are very frustrated by the rate of decline. They all ask me why people are still paying premiums for homes like this and all I can tell them is because they do. I show then the stats that the volume of sales are down but that doesn’t console them.

This is what I do not understand. Nobody is arguing that the market will not go down, nor is anyone saying that prices will not drop dramatically. It seems to me that there is some displaced anger or whatever trying to justify that we HAVE TO HAVE big drops. Well we don’t HAVE TO HAVE anything. Will they happen? In my opinion yes. Could it be this spring? Next Summmer? 09? I don’t know… probably sometime in the next few years.

If you truly think that homes in 4S are gonna for for 400k and the same for Carmel Valley then so be it? Maybe they will and maybe they won’t. I do know of plenty of people who will buy before they get there though.

The fact is that real estate moves slow. Do I think the banks are sitting on properties and holding them out? Perhaps they are. Do I think banks are sitting on properties in Carmel Valley or La Costa Valley? No I don’t.

Try to have some patience.

[Ex-SD]

sdrealtor: I think that too many people and possibly you, have been immersed in the SoCal real estate game so long that you don’t really realize what happens in most of the rest of the USA. Things have been so out of whack and crazy in CA when it comes to housing prices that it’s easy to get totally out of touch with reality. I believe that there will be plenty of willing sellers (The Banks) when they eat enough of these properties and they sit on them long enough. Several markets (not just one) in Florida have already had builders selling their remaining inventory of new homes at 50% less than they were selling them for just a year or two ago and in Sacramento, there are REO’s that the banks have priced at 50% discounts (homes less than 3-4 years old) to move them but they can’t find qualified buyers. Wanna guess the financial hit that they’ll wind up taking on those? My point is that these tract homes have no special pedestal that they sit on and just because a bunch of fools bought into the game and drank the kool-aid by paying too much for these homes when they were new. They may only be several years old but that doesn’t meant that they can’t see some severe drops when enough standing inventory sits on the lenders books for too long a period and the stockholders start demanding that they do something about it. I worked as an executive for several very large corporations and also was the CEO of a large retail corporation for 15 years and I’ve seen the pressure come raining down from the stockholders too many times. I think that it will also happen when it comes to the REO inventory that is growing like wild weeds. Add to that, the homeowners who will have to sell due to job transfers, divorces and job loses and will have to compete with the REO’s and you’re going to see some big drops in pricing. Simple logic tells me that the good ole times for the CA real estate market have gone bye-bye for quite a few years to come.

[Ex-SD]

sdrealtor: I think that too many people and possibly you, have been immersed in the SoCal real estate game so long that you don’t really realize what happens in most of the rest of the USA. Things have been so out of whack and crazy in CA when it comes to housing prices that it’s easy to get totally out of touch with reality. I believe that there will be plenty of willing sellers (The Banks) when they eat enough of these properties and they sit on them long enough. Several markets (not just one) in Florida have already had builders selling their remaining inventory of new homes at 50% less than they were selling them for just a year or two ago and in Sacramento, there are REO’s that the banks have priced at 50% discounts (homes less than 3-4 years old) to move them but they can’t find qualified buyers. Wanna guess the financial hit that they’ll wind up taking on those? My point is that these tract homes have no special pedestal that they sit on and just because a bunch of fools bought into the game and drank the kool-aid by paying too much for these homes when they were new. They may only be several years old but that doesn’t meant that they can’t see some severe drops when enough standing inventory sits on the lenders books for too long a period and the stockholders start demanding that they do something about it. I worked as an executive for several very large corporations and also was the CEO of a large retail corporation for 15 years and I’ve seen the pressure come raining down from the stockholders too many times. I think that it will also happen when it comes to the REO inventory that is growing like wild weeds. Add to that, the homeowners who will have to sell due to job transfers, divorces and job loses and will have to compete with the REO’s and you’re going to see some big drops in pricing. Simple logic tells me that the good ole times for the CA real estate market have gone bye-bye for quite a few years to come.

[Ex-SD]

sdrealtor: I think that too many people and possibly you, have been immersed in the SoCal real estate game so long that you don’t really realize what happens in most of the rest of the USA. Things have been so out of whack and crazy in CA when it comes to housing prices that it’s easy to get totally out of touch with reality. I believe that there will be plenty of willing sellers (The Banks) when they eat enough of these properties and they sit on them long enough. Several markets (not just one) in Florida have already had builders selling their remaining inventory of new homes at 50% less than they were selling them for just a year or two ago and in Sacramento, there are REO’s that the banks have priced at 50% discounts (homes less than 3-4 years old) to move them but they can’t find qualified buyers. Wanna guess the financial hit that they’ll wind up taking on those? My point is that these tract homes have no special pedestal that they sit on and just because a bunch of fools bought into the game and drank the kool-aid by paying too much for these homes when they were new. They may only be several years old but that doesn’t meant that they can’t see some severe drops when enough standing inventory sits on the lenders books for too long a period and the stockholders start demanding that they do something about it. I worked as an executive for several very large corporations and also was the CEO of a large retail corporation for 15 years and I’ve seen the pressure come raining down from the stockholders too many times. I think that it will also happen when it comes to the REO inventory that is growing like wild weeds. Add to that, the homeowners who will have to sell due to job transfers, divorces and job loses and will have to compete with the REO’s and you’re going to see some big drops in pricing. Simple logic tells me that the good ole times for the CA real estate market have gone bye-bye for quite a few years to come.

[Ex-SD]

sdrealtor: I think that too many people and possibly you, have been immersed in the SoCal real estate game so long that you don’t really realize what happens in most of the rest of the USA. Things have been so out of whack and crazy in CA when it comes to housing prices that it’s easy to get totally out of touch with reality. I believe that there will be plenty of willing sellers (The Banks) when they eat enough of these properties and they sit on them long enough. Several markets (not just one) in Florida have already had builders selling their remaining inventory of new homes at 50% less than they were selling them for just a year or two ago and in Sacramento, there are REO’s that the banks have priced at 50% discounts (homes less than 3-4 years old) to move them but they can’t find qualified buyers. Wanna guess the financial hit that they’ll wind up taking on those? My point is that these tract homes have no special pedestal that they sit on and just because a bunch of fools bought into the game and drank the kool-aid by paying too much for these homes when they were new. They may only be several years old but that doesn’t meant that they can’t see some severe drops when enough standing inventory sits on the lenders books for too long a period and the stockholders start demanding that they do something about it. I worked as an executive for several very large corporations and also was the CEO of a large retail corporation for 15 years and I’ve seen the pressure come raining down from the stockholders too many times. I think that it will also happen when it comes to the REO inventory that is growing like wild weeds. Add to that, the homeowners who will have to sell due to job transfers, divorces and job loses and will have to compete with the REO’s and you’re going to see some big drops in pricing. Simple logic tells me that the good ole times for the CA real estate market have gone bye-bye for quite a few years to come.

[sdrealtor]

Ex-SD
You only got it half right when you say “All that matters is what someone is willing to pay for it and do they have the money (or can they get a loan) to close the sale”. That is what we call a willing buyer. The other half that matters is what we call a willing seller. That half depends upon what someone is willing to accept and is able to accept. Until the two meet we dont have a market price.

I’m sure there are plenty of willing and able buyers for $1 homes but there are no willing sellers. this is an extreme example but it points out that there must be both.

[sdrealtor]

Ex-SD
You only got it half right when you say “All that matters is what someone is willing to pay for it and do they have the money (or can they get a loan) to close the sale”. That is what we call a willing buyer. The other half that matters is what we call a willing seller. That half depends upon what someone is willing to accept and is able to accept. Until the two meet we dont have a market price.

I’m sure there are plenty of willing and able buyers for $1 homes but there are no willing sellers. this is an extreme example but it points out that there must be both.

[sdrealtor]

Ex-SD
You only got it half right when you say “All that matters is what someone is willing to pay for it and do they have the money (or can they get a loan) to close the sale”. That is what we call a willing buyer. The other half that matters is what we call a willing seller. That half depends upon what someone is willing to accept and is able to accept. Until the two meet we dont have a market price.

I’m sure there are plenty of willing and able buyers for $1 homes but there are no willing sellers. this is an extreme example but it points out that there must be both.

[sdrealtor]

Ex-SD
You only got it half right when you say “All that matters is what someone is willing to pay for it and do they have the money (or can they get a loan) to close the sale”. That is what we call a willing buyer. The other half that matters is what we call a willing seller. That half depends upon what someone is willing to accept and is able to accept. Until the two meet we dont have a market price.

I’m sure there are plenty of willing and able buyers for $1 homes but there are no willing sellers. this is an extreme example but it points out that there must be both.

[4plexowner]

patientlywaiting makes an interesting point about the short sales listing prices – I will use the $297K short sale in 92116 (another active thread) as an example

if I were a buyer shopping in that zip code I might now think that SFRs north of Adams are worth $300K (reality is probably at least $150K higher right now for a decent SFR)

back in the hot days of the market I would have certainly considered the $297K listing as a legitimate comp (or at least a significant data point to consider) but now it needs to be thrown out

makes the realtor’s job even harder having to explain to an inexperienced buyer that the $297K isn’t a realistic comp – the confused mind says “No” so this short sale pricing strategy could be harming the market by creating confusion in buyer’s minds

[4plexowner]

patientlywaiting makes an interesting point about the short sales listing prices – I will use the $297K short sale in 92116 (another active thread) as an example

if I were a buyer shopping in that zip code I might now think that SFRs north of Adams are worth $300K (reality is probably at least $150K higher right now for a decent SFR)

back in the hot days of the market I would have certainly considered the $297K listing as a legitimate comp (or at least a significant data point to consider) but now it needs to be thrown out

makes the realtor’s job even harder having to explain to an inexperienced buyer that the $297K isn’t a realistic comp – the confused mind says “No” so this short sale pricing strategy could be harming the market by creating confusion in buyer’s minds

[4plexowner]

patientlywaiting makes an interesting point about the short sales listing prices – I will use the $297K short sale in 92116 (another active thread) as an example

if I were a buyer shopping in that zip code I might now think that SFRs north of Adams are worth $300K (reality is probably at least $150K higher right now for a decent SFR)

back in the hot days of the market I would have certainly considered the $297K listing as a legitimate comp (or at least a significant data point to consider) but now it needs to be thrown out

makes the realtor’s job even harder having to explain to an inexperienced buyer that the $297K isn’t a realistic comp – the confused mind says “No” so this short sale pricing strategy could be harming the market by creating confusion in buyer’s minds

[4plexowner]

patientlywaiting makes an interesting point about the short sales listing prices – I will use the $297K short sale in 92116 (another active thread) as an example

if I were a buyer shopping in that zip code I might now think that SFRs north of Adams are worth $300K (reality is probably at least $150K higher right now for a decent SFR)

back in the hot days of the market I would have certainly considered the $297K listing as a legitimate comp (or at least a significant data point to consider) but now it needs to be thrown out

makes the realtor’s job even harder having to explain to an inexperienced buyer that the $297K isn’t a realistic comp – the confused mind says “No” so this short sale pricing strategy could be harming the market by creating confusion in buyer’s minds

[4plexowner]

patientlywaiting makes an interesting point about the short sales listing prices – I will use the $297K short sale in 92116 (another active thread) as an example

if I were a buyer shopping in that zip code I might now think that SFRs north of Adams are worth $300K (reality is probably at least $150K higher right now for a decent SFR)

back in the hot days of the market I would have certainly considered the $297K listing as a legitimate comp (or at least a significant data point to consider) but now it needs to be thrown out

makes the realtor’s job even harder having to explain to an inexperienced buyer that the $297K isn’t a realistic comp – the confused mind says “No” so this short sale pricing strategy could be harming the market by creating confusion in buyer’s minds

[Ex-SD]

There are no rules or laws that prevent any house from losing value to less than what it sold for when they were new, several years ago. A home could have sold for $500k new in 2004 but if there are no takers and the house winds up as an REO, the bank will not sit on it forever and will keep dropping the price until it sells. That price could be $200k, $300k or $400k. All that matters is what someone is willing to pay for it and do they have the money (or can they get a loan) to close the sale. This happens with cars, jewelry and any other item of value that is for sale every day of the year.

[Ex-SD]

There are no rules or laws that prevent any house from losing value to less than what it sold for when they were new, several years ago. A home could have sold for $500k new in 2004 but if there are no takers and the house winds up as an REO, the bank will not sit on it forever and will keep dropping the price until it sells. That price could be $200k, $300k or $400k. All that matters is what someone is willing to pay for it and do they have the money (or can they get a loan) to close the sale. This happens with cars, jewelry and any other item of value that is for sale every day of the year.

[Ex-SD]

There are no rules or laws that prevent any house from losing value to less than what it sold for when they were new, several years ago. A home could have sold for $500k new in 2004 but if there are no takers and the house winds up as an REO, the bank will not sit on it forever and will keep dropping the price until it sells. That price could be $200k, $300k or $400k. All that matters is what someone is willing to pay for it and do they have the money (or can they get a loan) to close the sale. This happens with cars, jewelry and any other item of value that is for sale every day of the year.

[Ex-SD]

There are no rules or laws that prevent any house from losing value to less than what it sold for when they were new, several years ago. A home could have sold for $500k new in 2004 but if there are no takers and the house winds up as an REO, the bank will not sit on it forever and will keep dropping the price until it sells. That price could be $200k, $300k or $400k. All that matters is what someone is willing to pay for it and do they have the money (or can they get a loan) to close the sale. This happens with cars, jewelry and any other item of value that is for sale every day of the year.

[patientlywaiting]

Seems to me like the Realtors are backward looking, just like an appraiser would be. They look at sold comps to gauge value, today.

ocrenter is more forward looking in that he looks at the direction market by reviewing asking prices.

The asking prices are dropping and dropping, so it’s only a matter of time until we have closed sales confirmation of the downward trend.

One may wish to debate what the market is at, today. Why bother when all the signs point to lower and lower prices.

There was a time when sellers asked for the moon, got it and drove the market higher and higher. We now have opposite situation where sellers need to get ahead of the curve, and take some painful losses if they want to sell. They will drive the market lower and lower.

Patience is what is needed.

[patientlywaiting]

Seems to me like the Realtors are backward looking, just like an appraiser would be. They look at sold comps to gauge value, today.

ocrenter is more forward looking in that he looks at the direction market by reviewing asking prices.

The asking prices are dropping and dropping, so it’s only a matter of time until we have closed sales confirmation of the downward trend.

One may wish to debate what the market is at, today. Why bother when all the signs point to lower and lower prices.

There was a time when sellers asked for the moon, got it and drove the market higher and higher. We now have opposite situation where sellers need to get ahead of the curve, and take some painful losses if they want to sell. They will drive the market lower and lower.

Patience is what is needed.

[patientlywaiting]

Seems to me like the Realtors are backward looking, just like an appraiser would be. They look at sold comps to gauge value, today.

ocrenter is more forward looking in that he looks at the direction market by reviewing asking prices.

The asking prices are dropping and dropping, so it’s only a matter of time until we have closed sales confirmation of the downward trend.

One may wish to debate what the market is at, today. Why bother when all the signs point to lower and lower prices.

There was a time when sellers asked for the moon, got it and drove the market higher and higher. We now have opposite situation where sellers need to get ahead of the curve, and take some painful losses if they want to sell. They will drive the market lower and lower.

Patience is what is needed.

[patientlywaiting]

Seems to me like the Realtors are backward looking, just like an appraiser would be. They look at sold comps to gauge value, today.

ocrenter is more forward looking in that he looks at the direction market by reviewing asking prices.

The asking prices are dropping and dropping, so it’s only a matter of time until we have closed sales confirmation of the downward trend.

One may wish to debate what the market is at, today. Why bother when all the signs point to lower and lower prices.

There was a time when sellers asked for the moon, got it and drove the market higher and higher. We now have opposite situation where sellers need to get ahead of the curve, and take some painful losses if they want to sell. They will drive the market lower and lower.

Patience is what is needed.

[sdrealtor]

ocr,
While what you explain seems reasonable on the outside it isnt as reasonable on the inside. It’s all about price compression. There is a minimum price entry point for housing in the area and as newer homes Belleza is above that by a certain margin. Once you reach 600K and 800K for the bigger homes, you start competing with older entry level homes in more desirable locations like Carlsbad/Encinitas. Ultimately this will push down the prices of Belleza but it takes time. patience Grasshoppah!

[sdrealtor]

ocr,
While what you explain seems reasonable on the outside it isnt as reasonable on the inside. It’s all about price compression. There is a minimum price entry point for housing in the area and as newer homes Belleza is above that by a certain margin. Once you reach 600K and 800K for the bigger homes, you start competing with older entry level homes in more desirable locations like Carlsbad/Encinitas. Ultimately this will push down the prices of Belleza but it takes time. patience Grasshoppah!

[sdrealtor]

ocr,
While what you explain seems reasonable on the outside it isnt as reasonable on the inside. It’s all about price compression. There is a minimum price entry point for housing in the area and as newer homes Belleza is above that by a certain margin. Once you reach 600K and 800K for the bigger homes, you start competing with older entry level homes in more desirable locations like Carlsbad/Encinitas. Ultimately this will push down the prices of Belleza but it takes time. patience Grasshoppah!

[sdrealtor]

ocr,
While what you explain seems reasonable on the outside it isnt as reasonable on the inside. It’s all about price compression. There is a minimum price entry point for housing in the area and as newer homes Belleza is above that by a certain margin. Once you reach 600K and 800K for the bigger homes, you start competing with older entry level homes in more desirable locations like Carlsbad/Encinitas. Ultimately this will push down the prices of Belleza but it takes time. patience Grasshoppah!

[ocrenter]

sdr, thanks for the anonymous leads, perhaps pick a handle so credit is given.

I only focus on this because you are so absolute about this. Look, if there are 3700 sqft REOs in the general area going for $600k, and 4300 sqft homes dropping down to the low 800k, low $400k for these homes as the current market value is not unreasonable. while these are short sales, the fact that they have to keep dropping on their asking price to me indicates where the market truly is.

everywhere around this development has seen 20-30% drops in prices over the last year. low $400k would be in-line with that drop.

[ocrenter]

sdr, thanks for the anonymous leads, perhaps pick a handle so credit is given.

I only focus on this because you are so absolute about this. Look, if there are 3700 sqft REOs in the general area going for $600k, and 4300 sqft homes dropping down to the low 800k, low $400k for these homes as the current market value is not unreasonable. while these are short sales, the fact that they have to keep dropping on their asking price to me indicates where the market truly is.

everywhere around this development has seen 20-30% drops in prices over the last year. low $400k would be in-line with that drop.

[ocrenter]

sdr, thanks for the anonymous leads, perhaps pick a handle so credit is given.

I only focus on this because you are so absolute about this. Look, if there are 3700 sqft REOs in the general area going for $600k, and 4300 sqft homes dropping down to the low 800k, low $400k for these homes as the current market value is not unreasonable. while these are short sales, the fact that they have to keep dropping on their asking price to me indicates where the market truly is.

everywhere around this development has seen 20-30% drops in prices over the last year. low $400k would be in-line with that drop.

[ocrenter]

sdr, thanks for the anonymous leads, perhaps pick a handle so credit is given.

I only focus on this because you are so absolute about this. Look, if there are 3700 sqft REOs in the general area going for $600k, and 4300 sqft homes dropping down to the low 800k, low $400k for these homes as the current market value is not unreasonable. while these are short sales, the fact that they have to keep dropping on their asking price to me indicates where the market truly is.

everywhere around this development has seen 20-30% drops in prices over the last year. low $400k would be in-line with that drop.

[sdrealtor]

Gimme Break!

OCR,
The story hasnt just begun! It began about 4 years at the beginning of 2004 when things got completely whacked! I still stand by my comments that you mocked 100% and will be back on 12/31/07 to taunt you in return. There is NO WAY you will see “the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story!”

I thought you were smart enough to realize that extraordinary low asking prices set on short sales are intended to bring offers to the table so the seller can at least find out what the bank will do?

Breeze,
I own my dream home that I have been in for about a decade with a very low mortgage locked in for 30 yrs well below 6%. Not that I’ll ever sell but it is still worth at least 2X what I paid. I could write a check today and pay it off if I wanted to. I also own 2 other very profitable businesses that provide most of my income completely unrelated to RE. RE commissions are nice but certainly not something I sit around waiting for.

All,
Those Joy Ct homes are ridiculous! Have any of you ever been in one? I have. They are huge McMansions in a lousy location overlooking a busy road, industrial parks and what looks like a swamp or toxic waste. Frankly, I cant believe that anyone ever bought one at any price.

SD R,
Thank you for being the voice of reason. I am as bearish as anyone. The big difference is that I (and you) understand how this plays out on a micro level. Things take time! Most of the folks out here as guilty of greed and impatience as the the FB’s who bought on the way up.

Patience Grasshoppahs! It’s coming….

Lastly, OCR a belated “Your Welcome” as I have provided you leads for some of the best material on your blog without taking credit.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Gimme Break!

OCR,
The story hasnt just begun! It began about 4 years at the beginning of 2004 when things got completely whacked! I still stand by my comments that you mocked 100% and will be back on 12/31/07 to taunt you in return. There is NO WAY you will see “the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story!”

I thought you were smart enough to realize that extraordinary low asking prices set on short sales are intended to bring offers to the table so the seller can at least find out what the bank will do?

Breeze,
I own my dream home that I have been in for about a decade with a very low mortgage locked in for 30 yrs well below 6%. Not that I’ll ever sell but it is still worth at least 2X what I paid. I could write a check today and pay it off if I wanted to. I also own 2 other very profitable businesses that provide most of my income completely unrelated to RE. RE commissions are nice but certainly not something I sit around waiting for.

All,
Those Joy Ct homes are ridiculous! Have any of you ever been in one? I have. They are huge McMansions in a lousy location overlooking a busy road, industrial parks and what looks like a swamp or toxic waste. Frankly, I cant believe that anyone ever bought one at any price.

SD R,
Thank you for being the voice of reason. I am as bearish as anyone. The big difference is that I (and you) understand how this plays out on a micro level. Things take time! Most of the folks out here as guilty of greed and impatience as the the FB’s who bought on the way up.

Patience Grasshoppahs! It’s coming….

Lastly, OCR a belated “Your Welcome” as I have provided you leads for some of the best material on your blog without taking credit.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Gimme Break!

OCR,
The story hasnt just begun! It began about 4 years at the beginning of 2004 when things got completely whacked! I still stand by my comments that you mocked 100% and will be back on 12/31/07 to taunt you in return. There is NO WAY you will see “the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story!”

I thought you were smart enough to realize that extraordinary low asking prices set on short sales are intended to bring offers to the table so the seller can at least find out what the bank will do?

Breeze,
I own my dream home that I have been in for about a decade with a very low mortgage locked in for 30 yrs well below 6%. Not that I’ll ever sell but it is still worth at least 2X what I paid. I could write a check today and pay it off if I wanted to. I also own 2 other very profitable businesses that provide most of my income completely unrelated to RE. RE commissions are nice but certainly not something I sit around waiting for.

All,
Those Joy Ct homes are ridiculous! Have any of you ever been in one? I have. They are huge McMansions in a lousy location overlooking a busy road, industrial parks and what looks like a swamp or toxic waste. Frankly, I cant believe that anyone ever bought one at any price.

SD R,
Thank you for being the voice of reason. I am as bearish as anyone. The big difference is that I (and you) understand how this plays out on a micro level. Things take time! Most of the folks out here as guilty of greed and impatience as the the FB’s who bought on the way up.

Patience Grasshoppahs! It’s coming….

Lastly, OCR a belated “Your Welcome” as I have provided you leads for some of the best material on your blog without taking credit.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Gimme Break!

OCR,
The story hasnt just begun! It began about 4 years at the beginning of 2004 when things got completely whacked! I still stand by my comments that you mocked 100% and will be back on 12/31/07 to taunt you in return. There is NO WAY you will see “the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story!”

I thought you were smart enough to realize that extraordinary low asking prices set on short sales are intended to bring offers to the table so the seller can at least find out what the bank will do?

Breeze,
I own my dream home that I have been in for about a decade with a very low mortgage locked in for 30 yrs well below 6%. Not that I’ll ever sell but it is still worth at least 2X what I paid. I could write a check today and pay it off if I wanted to. I also own 2 other very profitable businesses that provide most of my income completely unrelated to RE. RE commissions are nice but certainly not something I sit around waiting for.

All,
Those Joy Ct homes are ridiculous! Have any of you ever been in one? I have. They are huge McMansions in a lousy location overlooking a busy road, industrial parks and what looks like a swamp or toxic waste. Frankly, I cant believe that anyone ever bought one at any price.

SD R,
Thank you for being the voice of reason. I am as bearish as anyone. The big difference is that I (and you) understand how this plays out on a micro level. Things take time! Most of the folks out here as guilty of greed and impatience as the the FB’s who bought on the way up.

Patience Grasshoppahs! It’s coming….

Lastly, OCR a belated “Your Welcome” as I have provided you leads for some of the best material on your blog without taking credit.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Time to resurrect an old thread again. Here’s where we left off:

“Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed.” sdrealtor, 6/06

“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.” ocrenter 8/06

“You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor, 11/07

491 CAMINO VERDE, San Marcos, CA 92078 (1909 sqft)
–11/19/07: asking $396,000

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2259 sqft)
–11/21/07: asking $430,000

“the story has just begun.”ocrenter 11/07

414 Camino Hermoso, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2,358 sqft)
CLOSED ESCROW on 4/28/08 for $515,000 to buyer with 20% down.

FWIW, 584 Via Del Caballo which was a horrible house with 5 feet of backyard and massive slope (100’s of feet high) directly behind it. It closed for $447,000 in early March.

6 months later it looks like sdrealtor was spot on!

Going forward is another story but for now, I’ll crow a bit.

[sdrealtor]

Time to resurrect an old thread again. Here’s where we left off:

“Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed.” sdrealtor, 6/06

“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.” ocrenter 8/06

“You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor, 11/07

491 CAMINO VERDE, San Marcos, CA 92078 (1909 sqft)
–11/19/07: asking $396,000

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2259 sqft)
–11/21/07: asking $430,000

“the story has just begun.”ocrenter 11/07

414 Camino Hermoso, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2,358 sqft)
CLOSED ESCROW on 4/28/08 for $515,000 to buyer with 20% down.

FWIW, 584 Via Del Caballo which was a horrible house with 5 feet of backyard and massive slope (100’s of feet high) directly behind it. It closed for $447,000 in early March.

6 months later it looks like sdrealtor was spot on!

Going forward is another story but for now, I’ll crow a bit.

[sdrealtor]

Time to resurrect an old thread again. Here’s where we left off:

“Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed.” sdrealtor, 6/06

“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.” ocrenter 8/06

“You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor, 11/07

491 CAMINO VERDE, San Marcos, CA 92078 (1909 sqft)
–11/19/07: asking $396,000

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2259 sqft)
–11/21/07: asking $430,000

“the story has just begun.”ocrenter 11/07

414 Camino Hermoso, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2,358 sqft)
CLOSED ESCROW on 4/28/08 for $515,000 to buyer with 20% down.

FWIW, 584 Via Del Caballo which was a horrible house with 5 feet of backyard and massive slope (100’s of feet high) directly behind it. It closed for $447,000 in early March.

6 months later it looks like sdrealtor was spot on!

Going forward is another story but for now, I’ll crow a bit.

[sdrealtor]

Time to resurrect an old thread again. Here’s where we left off:

“Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed.” sdrealtor, 6/06

“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.” ocrenter 8/06

“You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor, 11/07

491 CAMINO VERDE, San Marcos, CA 92078 (1909 sqft)
–11/19/07: asking $396,000

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2259 sqft)
–11/21/07: asking $430,000

“the story has just begun.”ocrenter 11/07

414 Camino Hermoso, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2,358 sqft)
CLOSED ESCROW on 4/28/08 for $515,000 to buyer with 20% down.

FWIW, 584 Via Del Caballo which was a horrible house with 5 feet of backyard and massive slope (100’s of feet high) directly behind it. It closed for $447,000 in early March.

6 months later it looks like sdrealtor was spot on!

Going forward is another story but for now, I’ll crow a bit.

[sdrealtor]

Time to resurrect an old thread again. Here’s where we left off:

“Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed.” sdrealtor, 6/06

“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.” ocrenter 8/06

“You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor, 11/07

491 CAMINO VERDE, San Marcos, CA 92078 (1909 sqft)
–11/19/07: asking $396,000

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2259 sqft)
–11/21/07: asking $430,000

“the story has just begun.”ocrenter 11/07

414 Camino Hermoso, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2,358 sqft)
CLOSED ESCROW on 4/28/08 for $515,000 to buyer with 20% down.

FWIW, 584 Via Del Caballo which was a horrible house with 5 feet of backyard and massive slope (100’s of feet high) directly behind it. It closed for $447,000 in early March.

6 months later it looks like sdrealtor was spot on!

Going forward is another story but for now, I’ll crow a bit.

[ocrenter]

“Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed.” sdrealtor, 6/06

“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.” ocrenter 8/06

“You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor, 11/07

491 CAMINO VERDE, San Marcos, CA 92078 (1909 sqft)
–11/19/07: asking $396,000

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2259 sqft)
–11/21/07: asking $430,000

the story has just begun.

[ocrenter]

“Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed.” sdrealtor, 6/06

“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.” ocrenter 8/06

“You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor, 11/07

491 CAMINO VERDE, San Marcos, CA 92078 (1909 sqft)
–11/19/07: asking $396,000

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2259 sqft)
–11/21/07: asking $430,000

the story has just begun.

[ocrenter]

“Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed.” sdrealtor, 6/06

“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.” ocrenter 8/06

“You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor, 11/07

491 CAMINO VERDE, San Marcos, CA 92078 (1909 sqft)
–11/19/07: asking $396,000

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2259 sqft)
–11/21/07: asking $430,000

the story has just begun.

[ocrenter]

“Those looking for a dramtaic crash to 500K have been sadly disappointed.” sdrealtor, 6/06

“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.” ocrenter 8/06

“You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.” sdrealtor, 11/07

491 CAMINO VERDE, San Marcos, CA 92078 (1909 sqft)
–11/19/07: asking $396,000

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078 (2259 sqft)
–11/21/07: asking $430,000

the story has just begun.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]You are talking apples and oranges. My recent point has been assessing the accuracy of our predictions as of this date. That is looking backward. There is no question as to whom has been more accurate. Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.

When i am advising clients as to what I think will happen that is looking forward and my advice will follow what i believe is coming.

You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.

[/quote]

Seeing is believing

624 Via Del Caballo

Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,259 sf
PPSF: $162
Lot Size: 5,367 sf

02/13/2009 $365,000 2y 5m -38% -18%
09/15/2006 $585,000 3y 2m 39% 11%
07/09/2003 $420,654 n/a – –

[scaredyclassic]

stuff like this should make people hesitate before saying “you can believe blah blah blah but there’s no way in hell that can happen”. On any given day, some future result might seem nutty, but prices go way up and they go way way down. farther down than seems reasonable, possible or sensible.

[scaredyclassic]

stuff like this should make people hesitate before saying “you can believe blah blah blah but there’s no way in hell that can happen”. On any given day, some future result might seem nutty, but prices go way up and they go way way down. farther down than seems reasonable, possible or sensible.

[scaredyclassic]

stuff like this should make people hesitate before saying “you can believe blah blah blah but there’s no way in hell that can happen”. On any given day, some future result might seem nutty, but prices go way up and they go way way down. farther down than seems reasonable, possible or sensible.

[scaredyclassic]

stuff like this should make people hesitate before saying “you can believe blah blah blah but there’s no way in hell that can happen”. On any given day, some future result might seem nutty, but prices go way up and they go way way down. farther down than seems reasonable, possible or sensible.

[scaredyclassic]

stuff like this should make people hesitate before saying “you can believe blah blah blah but there’s no way in hell that can happen”. On any given day, some future result might seem nutty, but prices go way up and they go way way down. farther down than seems reasonable, possible or sensible.

[sdrealtor]

Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market!

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market![/quote]

You are welcome. Feel free to share the next thing that will never happen.

OC came out with a timeframe and he was wrong – he underestimated the time it would take.
You, on the other hand, referenced no point in time. Your statement was absolute. You could just as credibly argue that you are right since the price is not in low 400’s but mid 300’s.

[scaredyclassic]

we are nowhere near a “complete collapse of the entire economy” … indeed, we’ve had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market. in just 16 months? I think youre statement was pretty unequivocal; “end of story”, no “unless there’s a tsunami” on long beach, even. Obviously financial conditions change. that’s why there’s risk. rather than your retort being a reminder of how smrt you are, you should be fairly humbled 9as should we all) in assessing our own ability to know current and future conditions. Humbled, my friend, not arrogant. Could this property go to 250k? 150K? never? end of story? care to double down?

[waiting hawk]

[quote=scaredycat]indeed, we’ve had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market. [/quote]

orly? almost 50% off from the top is a dip? What is a crash then lol

[waiting hawk]

[quote=scaredycat]indeed, we’ve had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market. [/quote]

orly? almost 50% off from the top is a dip? What is a crash then lol

[waiting hawk]

[quote=scaredycat]indeed, we’ve had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market. [/quote]

orly? almost 50% off from the top is a dip? What is a crash then lol

[waiting hawk]

[quote=scaredycat]indeed, we’ve had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market. [/quote]

orly? almost 50% off from the top is a dip? What is a crash then lol

[waiting hawk]

[quote=scaredycat]indeed, we’ve had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market. [/quote]

orly? almost 50% off from the top is a dip? What is a crash then lol

[scaredyclassic]

we are nowhere near a “complete collapse of the entire economy” … indeed, we’ve had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market. in just 16 months? I think youre statement was pretty unequivocal; “end of story”, no “unless there’s a tsunami” on long beach, even. Obviously financial conditions change. that’s why there’s risk. rather than your retort being a reminder of how smrt you are, you should be fairly humbled 9as should we all) in assessing our own ability to know current and future conditions. Humbled, my friend, not arrogant. Could this property go to 250k? 150K? never? end of story? care to double down?

[scaredyclassic]

we are nowhere near a “complete collapse of the entire economy” … indeed, we’ve had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market. in just 16 months? I think youre statement was pretty unequivocal; “end of story”, no “unless there’s a tsunami” on long beach, even. Obviously financial conditions change. that’s why there’s risk. rather than your retort being a reminder of how smrt you are, you should be fairly humbled 9as should we all) in assessing our own ability to know current and future conditions. Humbled, my friend, not arrogant. Could this property go to 250k? 150K? never? end of story? care to double down?

[scaredyclassic]

we are nowhere near a “complete collapse of the entire economy” … indeed, we’ve had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market. in just 16 months? I think youre statement was pretty unequivocal; “end of story”, no “unless there’s a tsunami” on long beach, even. Obviously financial conditions change. that’s why there’s risk. rather than your retort being a reminder of how smrt you are, you should be fairly humbled 9as should we all) in assessing our own ability to know current and future conditions. Humbled, my friend, not arrogant. Could this property go to 250k? 150K? never? end of story? care to double down?

[scaredyclassic]

we are nowhere near a “complete collapse of the entire economy” … indeed, we’ve had a mild contraction and a dip in the stock market. in just 16 months? I think youre statement was pretty unequivocal; “end of story”, no “unless there’s a tsunami” on long beach, even. Obviously financial conditions change. that’s why there’s risk. rather than your retort being a reminder of how smrt you are, you should be fairly humbled 9as should we all) in assessing our own ability to know current and future conditions. Humbled, my friend, not arrogant. Could this property go to 250k? 150K? never? end of story? care to double down?

[sdrealtor]

Nice try BG but no cigar. OCR and I were going back and forth on this thread and my comment was absolute in pertaining to that immediate time frame. I said it would never happen at that time. I also said it would happen in the future numerous places throughout this blog.

I was 100% correct that the low 400’s would not happen for that house in late 2007 or early 2008.

My skill is in predicting the market at hand and what will happen over the next 6 to 12 months. Anyone with half a brain could have predicted the direction this market was going longer term. I have never, ever, not for a single second been anything but long term bearish on this blog. Check the history of my posts 3 years and you will see that I consistently called for a North County Coastal bottom in 2011 or 2012. I have never wavered one iota and stand by those predictions today. I have to say, I’m looking smart these days.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]I said it would never happen at that time.
[/quote]

I like how you combine ‘never’ and ‘that time’. Very pythian.

[sdrealtor]

Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400’s at that time was an impossibility IMO.

Enough with this snake talk. I hate snakes!

[scaredyclassic]

heck id be impressed with anyone who could make a call in temecula 12 months out, plus or minus 10%. frankly, i have no idea what’s going to happen. if i were to guess, I’d say down 12%, but i wouldn’t be shocked if it were up 12% or flat.

[scaredyclassic]

heck id be impressed with anyone who could make a call in temecula 12 months out, plus or minus 10%. frankly, i have no idea what’s going to happen. if i were to guess, I’d say down 12%, but i wouldn’t be shocked if it were up 12% or flat.

[scaredyclassic]

heck id be impressed with anyone who could make a call in temecula 12 months out, plus or minus 10%. frankly, i have no idea what’s going to happen. if i were to guess, I’d say down 12%, but i wouldn’t be shocked if it were up 12% or flat.

[scaredyclassic]

heck id be impressed with anyone who could make a call in temecula 12 months out, plus or minus 10%. frankly, i have no idea what’s going to happen. if i were to guess, I’d say down 12%, but i wouldn’t be shocked if it were up 12% or flat.

[scaredyclassic]

heck id be impressed with anyone who could make a call in temecula 12 months out, plus or minus 10%. frankly, i have no idea what’s going to happen. if i were to guess, I’d say down 12%, but i wouldn’t be shocked if it were up 12% or flat.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400’s at that time was an impossibility IMO.[/quote]

I did. I believe you are using ‘never’ incorrectly.
‘Never’ is absolute. Saying ‘never at that time’ makes no sense. Same with constructs like ‘It will never happen as long as Condition A.’

E.g. if I say ‘it will rain tomorrow’ and you respond with ‘never’ what you are saying is ‘it will never rain’, not ‘it will not rain tomorrow’.

But don’t let that stand in the way while you are helping your cash and foreign buyers.

[sdrealtor]

Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.[/quote]

Reduced to semantics, as in reduced to meaning? But of course. What else it there to talk about?

Pythian has nothing to do with snakes. It refers to a vague prophecy which can be interpreted in more than one way.

Like “victory no return” – is it “victory, no return” (as in you will be victorious, but you will die and you will not return) or “victory no, return” (as in you will fail, but you will come back alive)?

I am doing you a favor – your street smart is being extended by my book smart. Cash buyers might not like it, but foreigners always go for that.

[sdrealtor]

BG
I’ve got plenty of book smarts (a dual major from a quality University and a pair of Masters Degrees gathering dust on my wall). I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you. I only scream on the boards from time to time because I know that is what it takes to be heard on an Internet blog. If you come on Monday you will be sorely disappointed if you are expecting to meet a loud mouth.

BTW, I know what Pythian means. If you followed my posts for any length of time you’d know I love a good threadjack. I was hoping someone might pick up on it and we’d end up talking about reptiles or Indiana Jones fear of snakes. But I alas I failed this time……………….

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you.[/quote]

Fair enough. I only report what I see in order to help those who might extrapolate some near-term estimates too far into the future.

420 Camino Hermoso
Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,358 sf
PPSF: $152

03/06/2009 $359,000 4y 11m -13% -3%
03/30/2004 $410,365 n/a – –

Btw, few people will self-describe as extremists. It’s fair&balanced everywhere one looks.

[sdrealtor]

I dont know what it was but somethng made me look up this thread and I wondered what happened in this tract. For those who were around when we hashed all this out here is what happened since we left off.

In late 2008 the bigger models were still hanging around in the mid to upper 400″s. In Spring 2009 there was a fews months where a few (3) REO/short sales dipped to 360 to 375K whihc was right after the last post on this thread. By the end of 2009 they were back around 400K and since then have been hanging in between 400 and 425K. So it took longer to get to that bottom than most expected and that bottom was very brief. Since then things stabilized and have a flat/slight upward trend.

This turned out to be a pretty good metaphor for most of markets in SD.

[lindismith]

Thanks so much for the follow up on this sdr. Always good to get a feel for the trend.

If you had to guess, how long do you think it will stay at the flat/slight upward trend?

Would refer to this as the trough?

[sdrealtor]

While it is hard to say with certainty (because it is such a long time out) I believe we are looking at a minimum of 2 to 3 more years in this range and likely 5 years. I expect to trade in a fairly tight range up and down 5 to 10% from where we are.

The unknown is how long unemployment stays elevated and when inflation starts hitting wages. Right now wages seem to be pretty much in line with prices from what I see. Most people can afford to buy in an area acceptable to them it is just the psychology of the market that prevents many from doing so. If buyers had confidence in the economy demand would be alot higher. As it is, there seems to be plenty of demand for every house that I see priced at the market.

[stockstradr]

Thanks everyone for these updates. This is also an interesting area we are also watching.

Amazing to read this thread that those 2400 sq ft homes in the mentioned area of San Marcos had briefly fallen to as low as $360K – $375K.

I’m betting we see those prices again within one year.

[sdrealtor]

They could but it would most likely take a black swan event.

I’m always up for taking overly bearish posters money. Care to actually make that bet?

[Scarlett]

sdr, are the prices coming down in SEH, or San marcos? I am talking about the 2000+ sf SFRs.

[sdrealtor]

scarlett
was away all weekend and catching up. I will take a look in the nbext day or so and let you know.

[sdrealtor]

scarlett
was away all weekend and catching up. I will take a look in the nbext day or so and let you know.

[sdrealtor]

scarlett
was away all weekend and catching up. I will take a look in the nbext day or so and let you know.

[sdrealtor]

scarlett
was away all weekend and catching up. I will take a look in the nbext day or so and let you know.

[sdrealtor]

scarlett
was away all weekend and catching up. I will take a look in the nbext day or so and let you know.

[Scarlett]

sdr, are the prices coming down in SEH, or San marcos? I am talking about the 2000+ sf SFRs.

[Scarlett]

sdr, are the prices coming down in SEH, or San marcos? I am talking about the 2000+ sf SFRs.

[Scarlett]

sdr, are the prices coming down in SEH, or San marcos? I am talking about the 2000+ sf SFRs.

[Scarlett]

sdr, are the prices coming down in SEH, or San marcos? I am talking about the 2000+ sf SFRs.

[sdrealtor]

They could but it would most likely take a black swan event.

I’m always up for taking overly bearish posters money. Care to actually make that bet?

[sdrealtor]

They could but it would most likely take a black swan event.

I’m always up for taking overly bearish posters money. Care to actually make that bet?

[sdrealtor]

They could but it would most likely take a black swan event.

I’m always up for taking overly bearish posters money. Care to actually make that bet?

[sdrealtor]

They could but it would most likely take a black swan event.

I’m always up for taking overly bearish posters money. Care to actually make that bet?

[stockstradr]

Thanks everyone for these updates. This is also an interesting area we are also watching.

Amazing to read this thread that those 2400 sq ft homes in the mentioned area of San Marcos had briefly fallen to as low as $360K – $375K.

I’m betting we see those prices again within one year.

[stockstradr]

Thanks everyone for these updates. This is also an interesting area we are also watching.

Amazing to read this thread that those 2400 sq ft homes in the mentioned area of San Marcos had briefly fallen to as low as $360K – $375K.

I’m betting we see those prices again within one year.

[stockstradr]

Thanks everyone for these updates. This is also an interesting area we are also watching.

Amazing to read this thread that those 2400 sq ft homes in the mentioned area of San Marcos had briefly fallen to as low as $360K – $375K.

I’m betting we see those prices again within one year.

[stockstradr]

Thanks everyone for these updates. This is also an interesting area we are also watching.

Amazing to read this thread that those 2400 sq ft homes in the mentioned area of San Marcos had briefly fallen to as low as $360K – $375K.

I’m betting we see those prices again within one year.

[sdrealtor]

While it is hard to say with certainty (because it is such a long time out) I believe we are looking at a minimum of 2 to 3 more years in this range and likely 5 years. I expect to trade in a fairly tight range up and down 5 to 10% from where we are.

The unknown is how long unemployment stays elevated and when inflation starts hitting wages. Right now wages seem to be pretty much in line with prices from what I see. Most people can afford to buy in an area acceptable to them it is just the psychology of the market that prevents many from doing so. If buyers had confidence in the economy demand would be alot higher. As it is, there seems to be plenty of demand for every house that I see priced at the market.

[sdrealtor]

While it is hard to say with certainty (because it is such a long time out) I believe we are looking at a minimum of 2 to 3 more years in this range and likely 5 years. I expect to trade in a fairly tight range up and down 5 to 10% from where we are.

The unknown is how long unemployment stays elevated and when inflation starts hitting wages. Right now wages seem to be pretty much in line with prices from what I see. Most people can afford to buy in an area acceptable to them it is just the psychology of the market that prevents many from doing so. If buyers had confidence in the economy demand would be alot higher. As it is, there seems to be plenty of demand for every house that I see priced at the market.

[sdrealtor]

While it is hard to say with certainty (because it is such a long time out) I believe we are looking at a minimum of 2 to 3 more years in this range and likely 5 years. I expect to trade in a fairly tight range up and down 5 to 10% from where we are.

The unknown is how long unemployment stays elevated and when inflation starts hitting wages. Right now wages seem to be pretty much in line with prices from what I see. Most people can afford to buy in an area acceptable to them it is just the psychology of the market that prevents many from doing so. If buyers had confidence in the economy demand would be alot higher. As it is, there seems to be plenty of demand for every house that I see priced at the market.

[sdrealtor]

While it is hard to say with certainty (because it is such a long time out) I believe we are looking at a minimum of 2 to 3 more years in this range and likely 5 years. I expect to trade in a fairly tight range up and down 5 to 10% from where we are.

The unknown is how long unemployment stays elevated and when inflation starts hitting wages. Right now wages seem to be pretty much in line with prices from what I see. Most people can afford to buy in an area acceptable to them it is just the psychology of the market that prevents many from doing so. If buyers had confidence in the economy demand would be alot higher. As it is, there seems to be plenty of demand for every house that I see priced at the market.

[lindismith]

Thanks so much for the follow up on this sdr. Always good to get a feel for the trend.

If you had to guess, how long do you think it will stay at the flat/slight upward trend?

Would refer to this as the trough?

[lindismith]

Thanks so much for the follow up on this sdr. Always good to get a feel for the trend.

If you had to guess, how long do you think it will stay at the flat/slight upward trend?

Would refer to this as the trough?

[lindismith]

Thanks so much for the follow up on this sdr. Always good to get a feel for the trend.

If you had to guess, how long do you think it will stay at the flat/slight upward trend?

Would refer to this as the trough?

[lindismith]

Thanks so much for the follow up on this sdr. Always good to get a feel for the trend.

If you had to guess, how long do you think it will stay at the flat/slight upward trend?

Would refer to this as the trough?

[sdrealtor]

I dont know what it was but somethng made me look up this thread and I wondered what happened in this tract. For those who were around when we hashed all this out here is what happened since we left off.

In late 2008 the bigger models were still hanging around in the mid to upper 400″s. In Spring 2009 there was a fews months where a few (3) REO/short sales dipped to 360 to 375K whihc was right after the last post on this thread. By the end of 2009 they were back around 400K and since then have been hanging in between 400 and 425K. So it took longer to get to that bottom than most expected and that bottom was very brief. Since then things stabilized and have a flat/slight upward trend.

This turned out to be a pretty good metaphor for most of markets in SD.

[sdrealtor]

I dont know what it was but somethng made me look up this thread and I wondered what happened in this tract. For those who were around when we hashed all this out here is what happened since we left off.

In late 2008 the bigger models were still hanging around in the mid to upper 400″s. In Spring 2009 there was a fews months where a few (3) REO/short sales dipped to 360 to 375K whihc was right after the last post on this thread. By the end of 2009 they were back around 400K and since then have been hanging in between 400 and 425K. So it took longer to get to that bottom than most expected and that bottom was very brief. Since then things stabilized and have a flat/slight upward trend.

This turned out to be a pretty good metaphor for most of markets in SD.

[sdrealtor]

I dont know what it was but somethng made me look up this thread and I wondered what happened in this tract. For those who were around when we hashed all this out here is what happened since we left off.

In late 2008 the bigger models were still hanging around in the mid to upper 400″s. In Spring 2009 there was a fews months where a few (3) REO/short sales dipped to 360 to 375K whihc was right after the last post on this thread. By the end of 2009 they were back around 400K and since then have been hanging in between 400 and 425K. So it took longer to get to that bottom than most expected and that bottom was very brief. Since then things stabilized and have a flat/slight upward trend.

This turned out to be a pretty good metaphor for most of markets in SD.

[sdrealtor]

I dont know what it was but somethng made me look up this thread and I wondered what happened in this tract. For those who were around when we hashed all this out here is what happened since we left off.

In late 2008 the bigger models were still hanging around in the mid to upper 400″s. In Spring 2009 there was a fews months where a few (3) REO/short sales dipped to 360 to 375K whihc was right after the last post on this thread. By the end of 2009 they were back around 400K and since then have been hanging in between 400 and 425K. So it took longer to get to that bottom than most expected and that bottom was very brief. Since then things stabilized and have a flat/slight upward trend.

This turned out to be a pretty good metaphor for most of markets in SD.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you.[/quote]

Fair enough. I only report what I see in order to help those who might extrapolate some near-term estimates too far into the future.

420 Camino Hermoso
Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,358 sf
PPSF: $152

03/06/2009 $359,000 4y 11m -13% -3%
03/30/2004 $410,365 n/a – –

Btw, few people will self-describe as extremists. It’s fair&balanced everywhere one looks.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you.[/quote]

Fair enough. I only report what I see in order to help those who might extrapolate some near-term estimates too far into the future.

420 Camino Hermoso
Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,358 sf
PPSF: $152

03/06/2009 $359,000 4y 11m -13% -3%
03/30/2004 $410,365 n/a – –

Btw, few people will self-describe as extremists. It’s fair&balanced everywhere one looks.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you.[/quote]

Fair enough. I only report what I see in order to help those who might extrapolate some near-term estimates too far into the future.

420 Camino Hermoso
Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,358 sf
PPSF: $152

03/06/2009 $359,000 4y 11m -13% -3%
03/30/2004 $410,365 n/a – –

Btw, few people will self-describe as extremists. It’s fair&balanced everywhere one looks.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you.[/quote]

Fair enough. I only report what I see in order to help those who might extrapolate some near-term estimates too far into the future.

420 Camino Hermoso
Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,358 sf
PPSF: $152

03/06/2009 $359,000 4y 11m -13% -3%
03/30/2004 $410,365 n/a – –

Btw, few people will self-describe as extremists. It’s fair&balanced everywhere one looks.

[sdrealtor]

BG
I’ve got plenty of book smarts (a dual major from a quality University and a pair of Masters Degrees gathering dust on my wall). I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you. I only scream on the boards from time to time because I know that is what it takes to be heard on an Internet blog. If you come on Monday you will be sorely disappointed if you are expecting to meet a loud mouth.

BTW, I know what Pythian means. If you followed my posts for any length of time you’d know I love a good threadjack. I was hoping someone might pick up on it and we’d end up talking about reptiles or Indiana Jones fear of snakes. But I alas I failed this time……………….

[sdrealtor]

BG
I’ve got plenty of book smarts (a dual major from a quality University and a pair of Masters Degrees gathering dust on my wall). I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you. I only scream on the boards from time to time because I know that is what it takes to be heard on an Internet blog. If you come on Monday you will be sorely disappointed if you are expecting to meet a loud mouth.

BTW, I know what Pythian means. If you followed my posts for any length of time you’d know I love a good threadjack. I was hoping someone might pick up on it and we’d end up talking about reptiles or Indiana Jones fear of snakes. But I alas I failed this time……………….

[sdrealtor]

BG
I’ve got plenty of book smarts (a dual major from a quality University and a pair of Masters Degrees gathering dust on my wall). I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you. I only scream on the boards from time to time because I know that is what it takes to be heard on an Internet blog. If you come on Monday you will be sorely disappointed if you are expecting to meet a loud mouth.

BTW, I know what Pythian means. If you followed my posts for any length of time you’d know I love a good threadjack. I was hoping someone might pick up on it and we’d end up talking about reptiles or Indiana Jones fear of snakes. But I alas I failed this time……………….

[sdrealtor]

BG
I’ve got plenty of book smarts (a dual major from a quality University and a pair of Masters Degrees gathering dust on my wall). I only report on what I see and what I see is balance in the world not extremistic views actually proving correct. Re-read TG coyote-rabbit post. Take my opinions for what they are worth to you. I only scream on the boards from time to time because I know that is what it takes to be heard on an Internet blog. If you come on Monday you will be sorely disappointed if you are expecting to meet a loud mouth.

BTW, I know what Pythian means. If you followed my posts for any length of time you’d know I love a good threadjack. I was hoping someone might pick up on it and we’d end up talking about reptiles or Indiana Jones fear of snakes. But I alas I failed this time……………….

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.[/quote]

Reduced to semantics, as in reduced to meaning? But of course. What else it there to talk about?

Pythian has nothing to do with snakes. It refers to a vague prophecy which can be interpreted in more than one way.

Like “victory no return” – is it “victory, no return” (as in you will be victorious, but you will die and you will not return) or “victory no, return” (as in you will fail, but you will come back alive)?

I am doing you a favor – your street smart is being extended by my book smart. Cash buyers might not like it, but foreigners always go for that.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.[/quote]

Reduced to semantics, as in reduced to meaning? But of course. What else it there to talk about?

Pythian has nothing to do with snakes. It refers to a vague prophecy which can be interpreted in more than one way.

Like “victory no return” – is it “victory, no return” (as in you will be victorious, but you will die and you will not return) or “victory no, return” (as in you will fail, but you will come back alive)?

I am doing you a favor – your street smart is being extended by my book smart. Cash buyers might not like it, but foreigners always go for that.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.[/quote]

Reduced to semantics, as in reduced to meaning? But of course. What else it there to talk about?

Pythian has nothing to do with snakes. It refers to a vague prophecy which can be interpreted in more than one way.

Like “victory no return” – is it “victory, no return” (as in you will be victorious, but you will die and you will not return) or “victory no, return” (as in you will fail, but you will come back alive)?

I am doing you a favor – your street smart is being extended by my book smart. Cash buyers might not like it, but foreigners always go for that.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.[/quote]

Reduced to semantics, as in reduced to meaning? But of course. What else it there to talk about?

Pythian has nothing to do with snakes. It refers to a vague prophecy which can be interpreted in more than one way.

Like “victory no return” – is it “victory, no return” (as in you will be victorious, but you will die and you will not return) or “victory no, return” (as in you will fail, but you will come back alive)?

I am doing you a favor – your street smart is being extended by my book smart. Cash buyers might not like it, but foreigners always go for that.

[sdrealtor]

Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.

[sdrealtor]

Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.

[sdrealtor]

Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.

[sdrealtor]

Reduced to semantics. How pitiful you have become.

I can say it will never rain today and while gramatically its not perfect when tommorrow comes without a hint of percipitation coming to pass I was correct. Everyting in this thread of lore refereenced spefici timelines and you are hanging your beanie on single word used in a grammatically questionable manner. This is a friggin housing blog not an english lesson.

Go back to your snakes.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400’s at that time was an impossibility IMO.[/quote]

I did. I believe you are using ‘never’ incorrectly.
‘Never’ is absolute. Saying ‘never at that time’ makes no sense. Same with constructs like ‘It will never happen as long as Condition A.’

E.g. if I say ‘it will rain tomorrow’ and you respond with ‘never’ what you are saying is ‘it will never rain’, not ‘it will not rain tomorrow’.

But don’t let that stand in the way while you are helping your cash and foreign buyers.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400’s at that time was an impossibility IMO.[/quote]

I did. I believe you are using ‘never’ incorrectly.
‘Never’ is absolute. Saying ‘never at that time’ makes no sense. Same with constructs like ‘It will never happen as long as Condition A.’

E.g. if I say ‘it will rain tomorrow’ and you respond with ‘never’ what you are saying is ‘it will never rain’, not ‘it will not rain tomorrow’.

But don’t let that stand in the way while you are helping your cash and foreign buyers.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400’s at that time was an impossibility IMO.[/quote]

I did. I believe you are using ‘never’ incorrectly.
‘Never’ is absolute. Saying ‘never at that time’ makes no sense. Same with constructs like ‘It will never happen as long as Condition A.’

E.g. if I say ‘it will rain tomorrow’ and you respond with ‘never’ what you are saying is ‘it will never rain’, not ‘it will not rain tomorrow’.

But don’t let that stand in the way while you are helping your cash and foreign buyers.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400’s at that time was an impossibility IMO.[/quote]

I did. I believe you are using ‘never’ incorrectly.
‘Never’ is absolute. Saying ‘never at that time’ makes no sense. Same with constructs like ‘It will never happen as long as Condition A.’

E.g. if I say ‘it will rain tomorrow’ and you respond with ‘never’ what you are saying is ‘it will never rain’, not ‘it will not rain tomorrow’.

But don’t let that stand in the way while you are helping your cash and foreign buyers.

[sdrealtor]

Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400’s at that time was an impossibility IMO.

Enough with this snake talk. I hate snakes!

[sdrealtor]

Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400’s at that time was an impossibility IMO.

Enough with this snake talk. I hate snakes!

[sdrealtor]

Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400’s at that time was an impossibility IMO.

Enough with this snake talk. I hate snakes!

[sdrealtor]

Stop grabbing at straws. Admit it. I was spot on. Go back and read the thread. It is clear my point was that I was low 400’s at that time was an impossibility IMO.

Enough with this snake talk. I hate snakes!

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]I said it would never happen at that time.
[/quote]

I like how you combine ‘never’ and ‘that time’. Very pythian.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]I said it would never happen at that time.
[/quote]

I like how you combine ‘never’ and ‘that time’. Very pythian.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]I said it would never happen at that time.
[/quote]

I like how you combine ‘never’ and ‘that time’. Very pythian.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]I said it would never happen at that time.
[/quote]

I like how you combine ‘never’ and ‘that time’. Very pythian.

[sdrealtor]

Nice try BG but no cigar. OCR and I were going back and forth on this thread and my comment was absolute in pertaining to that immediate time frame. I said it would never happen at that time. I also said it would happen in the future numerous places throughout this blog.

I was 100% correct that the low 400’s would not happen for that house in late 2007 or early 2008.

My skill is in predicting the market at hand and what will happen over the next 6 to 12 months. Anyone with half a brain could have predicted the direction this market was going longer term. I have never, ever, not for a single second been anything but long term bearish on this blog. Check the history of my posts 3 years and you will see that I consistently called for a North County Coastal bottom in 2011 or 2012. I have never wavered one iota and stand by those predictions today. I have to say, I’m looking smart these days.

[sdrealtor]

Nice try BG but no cigar. OCR and I were going back and forth on this thread and my comment was absolute in pertaining to that immediate time frame. I said it would never happen at that time. I also said it would happen in the future numerous places throughout this blog.

I was 100% correct that the low 400’s would not happen for that house in late 2007 or early 2008.

My skill is in predicting the market at hand and what will happen over the next 6 to 12 months. Anyone with half a brain could have predicted the direction this market was going longer term. I have never, ever, not for a single second been anything but long term bearish on this blog. Check the history of my posts 3 years and you will see that I consistently called for a North County Coastal bottom in 2011 or 2012. I have never wavered one iota and stand by those predictions today. I have to say, I’m looking smart these days.

[sdrealtor]

Nice try BG but no cigar. OCR and I were going back and forth on this thread and my comment was absolute in pertaining to that immediate time frame. I said it would never happen at that time. I also said it would happen in the future numerous places throughout this blog.

I was 100% correct that the low 400’s would not happen for that house in late 2007 or early 2008.

My skill is in predicting the market at hand and what will happen over the next 6 to 12 months. Anyone with half a brain could have predicted the direction this market was going longer term. I have never, ever, not for a single second been anything but long term bearish on this blog. Check the history of my posts 3 years and you will see that I consistently called for a North County Coastal bottom in 2011 or 2012. I have never wavered one iota and stand by those predictions today. I have to say, I’m looking smart these days.

[sdrealtor]

Nice try BG but no cigar. OCR and I were going back and forth on this thread and my comment was absolute in pertaining to that immediate time frame. I said it would never happen at that time. I also said it would happen in the future numerous places throughout this blog.

I was 100% correct that the low 400’s would not happen for that house in late 2007 or early 2008.

My skill is in predicting the market at hand and what will happen over the next 6 to 12 months. Anyone with half a brain could have predicted the direction this market was going longer term. I have never, ever, not for a single second been anything but long term bearish on this blog. Check the history of my posts 3 years and you will see that I consistently called for a North County Coastal bottom in 2011 or 2012. I have never wavered one iota and stand by those predictions today. I have to say, I’m looking smart these days.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market![/quote]

You are welcome. Feel free to share the next thing that will never happen.

OC came out with a timeframe and he was wrong – he underestimated the time it would take.
You, on the other hand, referenced no point in time. Your statement was absolute. You could just as credibly argue that you are right since the price is not in low 400’s but mid 300’s.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market![/quote]

You are welcome. Feel free to share the next thing that will never happen.

OC came out with a timeframe and he was wrong – he underestimated the time it would take.
You, on the other hand, referenced no point in time. Your statement was absolute. You could just as credibly argue that you are right since the price is not in low 400’s but mid 300’s.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market![/quote]

You are welcome. Feel free to share the next thing that will never happen.

OC came out with a timeframe and he was wrong – he underestimated the time it would take.
You, on the other hand, referenced no point in time. Your statement was absolute. You could just as credibly argue that you are right since the price is not in low 400’s but mid 300’s.

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market![/quote]

You are welcome. Feel free to share the next thing that will never happen.

OC came out with a timeframe and he was wrong – he underestimated the time it would take.
You, on the other hand, referenced no point in time. Your statement was absolute. You could just as credibly argue that you are right since the price is not in low 400’s but mid 300’s.

[sdrealtor]

Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market!

[sdrealtor]

Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market!

[sdrealtor]

Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market!

[sdrealtor]

Nice selective editing. That quote was from 16 months ago and was made specifically about that market and the conditions present at the time. The passage of time has only proven me more correct.

It hastaken a virtual complete collapse of our banking and entire economy for the price to reach that level and about 1.5 years. Thanks for reminding me how smart I really am in assessing the market!

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]You are talking apples and oranges. My recent point has been assessing the accuracy of our predictions as of this date. That is looking backward. There is no question as to whom has been more accurate. Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.

When i am advising clients as to what I think will happen that is looking forward and my advice will follow what i believe is coming.

You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.

[/quote]

Seeing is believing

624 Via Del Caballo

Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,259 sf
PPSF: $162
Lot Size: 5,367 sf

02/13/2009 $365,000 2y 5m -38% -18%
09/15/2006 $585,000 3y 2m 39% 11%
07/09/2003 $420,654 n/a – –

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]You are talking apples and oranges. My recent point has been assessing the accuracy of our predictions as of this date. That is looking backward. There is no question as to whom has been more accurate. Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.

When i am advising clients as to what I think will happen that is looking forward and my advice will follow what i believe is coming.

You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.

[/quote]

Seeing is believing

624 Via Del Caballo

Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,259 sf
PPSF: $162
Lot Size: 5,367 sf

02/13/2009 $365,000 2y 5m -38% -18%
09/15/2006 $585,000 3y 2m 39% 11%
07/09/2003 $420,654 n/a – –

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]You are talking apples and oranges. My recent point has been assessing the accuracy of our predictions as of this date. That is looking backward. There is no question as to whom has been more accurate. Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.

When i am advising clients as to what I think will happen that is looking forward and my advice will follow what i believe is coming.

You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.

[/quote]

Seeing is believing

624 Via Del Caballo

Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,259 sf
PPSF: $162
Lot Size: 5,367 sf

02/13/2009 $365,000 2y 5m -38% -18%
09/15/2006 $585,000 3y 2m 39% 11%
07/09/2003 $420,654 n/a – –

[BGinRB]

[quote=sdrealtor]You are talking apples and oranges. My recent point has been assessing the accuracy of our predictions as of this date. That is looking backward. There is no question as to whom has been more accurate. Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.

When i am advising clients as to what I think will happen that is looking forward and my advice will follow what i believe is coming.

You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.

[/quote]

Seeing is believing

624 Via Del Caballo

Beds/Baths: 4 / 3
Square Feet: 2,259 sf
PPSF: $162
Lot Size: 5,367 sf

02/13/2009 $365,000 2y 5m -38% -18%
09/15/2006 $585,000 3y 2m 39% 11%
07/09/2003 $420,654 n/a – –

[sdrealtor]

You are talking apples and oranges. My recent point has been assessing the accuracy of our predictions as of this date. That is looking backward. There is no question as to whom has been more accurate. Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.

When i am advising clients as to what I think will happen that is looking forward and my advice will follow what i believe is coming.

You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.

[sdrealtor]

You are talking apples and oranges. My recent point has been assessing the accuracy of our predictions as of this date. That is looking backward. There is no question as to whom has been more accurate. Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.

When i am advising clients as to what I think will happen that is looking forward and my advice will follow what i believe is coming.

You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.

[sdrealtor]

You are talking apples and oranges. My recent point has been assessing the accuracy of our predictions as of this date. That is looking backward. There is no question as to whom has been more accurate. Over the last 4 years I have consistently been spot on in predicting every move of the market within the next 6 to 12 and 12 to 24 months.

When i am advising clients as to what I think will happen that is looking forward and my advice will follow what i believe is coming.

You can believe what you want but there is no way you will see the 2300 sq ft model that was the basis of this thread from the outset sell at a price close to the low 400’s. End of story.

[patientlywaiting]

I just calling a spade a spade here.

So you want empirical proof the that market is dropping to a certain level before you would concede that it reached that level? I wonder when the market recovers and booms again, if you'll tell your clients "well the market is not that high yet, so let's be realistic in pricing." Or will you tell your clients "let's shoot for that 20% extra, because I think you'll get it."

I'm guessing that you'll go for the latter because that will create new comps and new listing opportunities. You're not going to wait for proof-positive comps before you price higher. So why wait for comps to price lower?

My point is that the current "value" to a buyer is based in large part by expectations for the near future. I believe that ocrenter is calling that near future very accurately for San Marcos.

 

[patientlywaiting]

I just calling a spade a spade here.

So you want empirical proof the that market is dropping to a certain level before you would concede that it reached that level? I wonder when the market recovers and booms again, if you'll tell your clients "well the market is not that high yet, so let's be realistic in pricing." Or will you tell your clients "let's shoot for that 20% extra, because I think you'll get it."

I'm guessing that you'll go for the latter because that will create new comps and new listing opportunities. You're not going to wait for proof-positive comps before you price higher. So why wait for comps to price lower?

My point is that the current "value" to a buyer is based in large part by expectations for the near future. I believe that ocrenter is calling that near future very accurately for San Marcos.

 

[patientlywaiting]

I just calling a spade a spade here.

So you want empirical proof the that market is dropping to a certain level before you would concede that it reached that level? I wonder when the market recovers and booms again, if you'll tell your clients "well the market is not that high yet, so let's be realistic in pricing." Or will you tell your clients "let's shoot for that 20% extra, because I think you'll get it."

I'm guessing that you'll go for the latter because that will create new comps and new listing opportunities. You're not going to wait for proof-positive comps before you price higher. So why wait for comps to price lower?

My point is that the current "value" to a buyer is based in large part by expectations for the near future. I believe that ocrenter is calling that near future very accurately for San Marcos.

 

[sdrealtor]

JWM
Quite to the contrary a substantial decline in prices would be great for me. The quicker the better. First, I have the assets, income and knowledge to exploit the heck out of a market at its bottom. Second, lower prices will ultimately increase sales volume and create another huge income stream to me selling investment properties and homes to my personal network.

As for being in full flame mode, you guys know how much more I have. I just calling a spade a spade here. We all are on the same boat as to where we think the market is heading. We just differ in where we think we are now and how fast we’ll get to where were going.

[sdrealtor]

JWM
Quite to the contrary a substantial decline in prices would be great for me. The quicker the better. First, I have the assets, income and knowledge to exploit the heck out of a market at its bottom. Second, lower prices will ultimately increase sales volume and create another huge income stream to me selling investment properties and homes to my personal network.

As for being in full flame mode, you guys know how much more I have. I just calling a spade a spade here. We all are on the same boat as to where we think the market is heading. We just differ in where we think we are now and how fast we’ll get to where were going.

[sdrealtor]

JWM
Quite to the contrary a substantial decline in prices would be great for me. The quicker the better. First, I have the assets, income and knowledge to exploit the heck out of a market at its bottom. Second, lower prices will ultimately increase sales volume and create another huge income stream to me selling investment properties and homes to my personal network.

As for being in full flame mode, you guys know how much more I have. I just calling a spade a spade here. We all are on the same boat as to where we think the market is heading. We just differ in where we think we are now and how fast we’ll get to where were going.

[JWM in SD]

That’s okay OCrenter. It is largely because he knows where this ultimately headed and it’s not good for him.

[JWM in SD]

That’s okay OCrenter. It is largely because he knows where this ultimately headed and it’s not good for him.

[JWM in SD]

That’s okay OCrenter. It is largely because he knows where this ultimately headed and it’s not good for him.

[ocrenter]

looks like I got sd realtor in full flaming mode.

good grief. I forgot this part of sd realtor’s personality.

for the sake of the forum, I’m backing off.

I was wrong, sd realtor is completely right. afterall, he is a REALTOR®, and I’m just a guy with too much time on my hand.

[ocrenter]

looks like I got sd realtor in full flaming mode.

good grief. I forgot this part of sd realtor’s personality.

for the sake of the forum, I’m backing off.

I was wrong, sd realtor is completely right. afterall, he is a REALTOR®, and I’m just a guy with too much time on my hand.

[ocrenter]

looks like I got sd realtor in full flaming mode.

good grief. I forgot this part of sd realtor’s personality.

for the sake of the forum, I’m backing off.

I was wrong, sd realtor is completely right. afterall, he is a REALTOR®, and I’m just a guy with too much time on my hand.

[SD Realtor]

Yes that is correct, I did do my search by putting the subdivision in and searching on that text string. As I said, I do not know much about the subdivision nor do I know all of the streets in the subdivision so it would not make sense for me to do a street search would it? For all I know there also could have been more cancelled/expireds/withdrawns on other streets within that subdivision but where the realtor didn’t put in the subdivision name so how am I to do the search if I do not know the boundaries? Surely you wouldn’t suggest doing a street search on every street in the subdivision would you?

If we are going to nitpick each other then let’s cover all the bases shall we?

As far as putting a label on 2003 pricing I do agree with your statement 100%. 2003 may be one of the wildest years ever for socal real estate and the disparity for early 03 verses late 03 is quite substantial.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Yes that is correct, I did do my search by putting the subdivision in and searching on that text string. As I said, I do not know much about the subdivision nor do I know all of the streets in the subdivision so it would not make sense for me to do a street search would it? For all I know there also could have been more cancelled/expireds/withdrawns on other streets within that subdivision but where the realtor didn’t put in the subdivision name so how am I to do the search if I do not know the boundaries? Surely you wouldn’t suggest doing a street search on every street in the subdivision would you?

If we are going to nitpick each other then let’s cover all the bases shall we?

As far as putting a label on 2003 pricing I do agree with your statement 100%. 2003 may be one of the wildest years ever for socal real estate and the disparity for early 03 verses late 03 is quite substantial.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Yes that is correct, I did do my search by putting the subdivision in and searching on that text string. As I said, I do not know much about the subdivision nor do I know all of the streets in the subdivision so it would not make sense for me to do a street search would it? For all I know there also could have been more cancelled/expireds/withdrawns on other streets within that subdivision but where the realtor didn’t put in the subdivision name so how am I to do the search if I do not know the boundaries? Surely you wouldn’t suggest doing a street search on every street in the subdivision would you?

If we are going to nitpick each other then let’s cover all the bases shall we?

As far as putting a label on 2003 pricing I do agree with your statement 100%. 2003 may be one of the wildest years ever for socal real estate and the disparity for early 03 verses late 03 is quite substantial.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

Huh? Didnt miss the Camino verde pending? Of course you did. You took a short cut and searched by subdivision rather than searching by zip and pulling out the applicable comps by street name which caused you to miss it.

As for not being at 2003 prices, my point is that there is no such thing. Prices changed so dramatically throughout 2003 that you need to refer to a specific month or at least season in 2003 when refering to pricing levels. Much of North County and I suspect the rest of the county is seeing sales at prices we last saw in late 2003. That of course is nowhere near early 2003 prices.

Finally, two comps in the last 60 days is hardly low volume. In fact with the pendings its pretty darn high volume.

[sdrealtor]

Huh? Didnt miss the Camino verde pending? Of course you did. You took a short cut and searched by subdivision rather than searching by zip and pulling out the applicable comps by street name which caused you to miss it.

As for not being at 2003 prices, my point is that there is no such thing. Prices changed so dramatically throughout 2003 that you need to refer to a specific month or at least season in 2003 when refering to pricing levels. Much of North County and I suspect the rest of the county is seeing sales at prices we last saw in late 2003. That of course is nowhere near early 2003 prices.

Finally, two comps in the last 60 days is hardly low volume. In fact with the pendings its pretty darn high volume.

[sdrealtor]

Huh? Didnt miss the Camino verde pending? Of course you did. You took a short cut and searched by subdivision rather than searching by zip and pulling out the applicable comps by street name which caused you to miss it.

As for not being at 2003 prices, my point is that there is no such thing. Prices changed so dramatically throughout 2003 that you need to refer to a specific month or at least season in 2003 when refering to pricing levels. Much of North County and I suspect the rest of the county is seeing sales at prices we last saw in late 2003. That of course is nowhere near early 2003 prices.

Finally, two comps in the last 60 days is hardly low volume. In fact with the pendings its pretty darn high volume.

[SD Realtor]

sdrealtor I did not miss the Camino Verde pending. As I wrote, the only comps I pulled up were for the Belleza subdivision. The Camino Verde comp that you pulled up did not list Belleza as the subdivision so that is why it did not come up in my search.

Again as I wrote in my post above I am not really saying anybody is right or wrong here. I would not agree that prices are at the 2003 level. As I posted, they are “heading” in that direction, I think they will get there but no they are not there yet. Your point rings true that in other areas of the county we are certainly at 2003 prices while indeed we have not reached them yet here. I do think ocr’s point was to say that hey here is one here and one there, yes cherry picking, yet that is how it starts right? However people on this board tend to get all worked up and yes, they sometimes do take a distressed listing and extrapolate it to a much broader extreme which is erroneous to do.

Finally my point about the two comps was not to point out they are stale by any means, it was more to point out that the volume is low. Admittedly I am not an expert at this particular subdivision so maybe that volume is good for the size of the subdivision. I would say that the trend will keep putting pricing pressure on this subdivision (and area as a whole) such that we will see 03 prices here…. not sure when though.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdrealtor I did not miss the Camino Verde pending. As I wrote, the only comps I pulled up were for the Belleza subdivision. The Camino Verde comp that you pulled up did not list Belleza as the subdivision so that is why it did not come up in my search.

Again as I wrote in my post above I am not really saying anybody is right or wrong here. I would not agree that prices are at the 2003 level. As I posted, they are “heading” in that direction, I think they will get there but no they are not there yet. Your point rings true that in other areas of the county we are certainly at 2003 prices while indeed we have not reached them yet here. I do think ocr’s point was to say that hey here is one here and one there, yes cherry picking, yet that is how it starts right? However people on this board tend to get all worked up and yes, they sometimes do take a distressed listing and extrapolate it to a much broader extreme which is erroneous to do.

Finally my point about the two comps was not to point out they are stale by any means, it was more to point out that the volume is low. Admittedly I am not an expert at this particular subdivision so maybe that volume is good for the size of the subdivision. I would say that the trend will keep putting pricing pressure on this subdivision (and area as a whole) such that we will see 03 prices here…. not sure when though.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdrealtor I did not miss the Camino Verde pending. As I wrote, the only comps I pulled up were for the Belleza subdivision. The Camino Verde comp that you pulled up did not list Belleza as the subdivision so that is why it did not come up in my search.

Again as I wrote in my post above I am not really saying anybody is right or wrong here. I would not agree that prices are at the 2003 level. As I posted, they are “heading” in that direction, I think they will get there but no they are not there yet. Your point rings true that in other areas of the county we are certainly at 2003 prices while indeed we have not reached them yet here. I do think ocr’s point was to say that hey here is one here and one there, yes cherry picking, yet that is how it starts right? However people on this board tend to get all worked up and yes, they sometimes do take a distressed listing and extrapolate it to a much broader extreme which is erroneous to do.

Finally my point about the two comps was not to point out they are stale by any means, it was more to point out that the volume is low. Admittedly I am not an expert at this particular subdivision so maybe that volume is good for the size of the subdivision. I would say that the trend will keep putting pricing pressure on this subdivision (and area as a whole) such that we will see 03 prices here…. not sure when though.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
Whatever. You are cherry picking to prove your point. if you go back to the threads begining you see we were talking about the 2300+sq ft model. A few times we looked at the 2100 sq ft model. Now to prove your point that we might get into the low 400’s in 2007 you pulled out a much smaller model that was never part of the thread. If you look back to August 2006 posts you will see asking prices in the low 500’s for the larger models and your speculating they would dip below 500K. One year later we still see them closing above 500K.

SD R,
Jeezuz! if 30 to 60 day comps arent current enough what is? You also missed a pending on Camino Verde with an asking price of 575,000. probably didnt go that high but certainly not in the low 400’s.

A pending of the smaller 1900 sq ft model with an asking price of $490,000 is pretty strong IMO. BTW, this floorplan was selling in the high 300’s in late 2003. Throw in the fact that Twin Oaks Valley Road now goes through San Elijo Hills dramatically improving access to the coast and I’m still calling victory on this prediction.

Guys,
I dont deny the direction of where things are heading but OCR’s call was wrong given the timing of it. As for entering 2003 pricing, that is a pretty meaningless statement as we have been there for a year already in most areas. The question is not are we in 2003 pricing but are we in January 2003 pricing which is vastly different from November 2003 pricing as there was substantial appreciation throughout the year.

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
Whatever. You are cherry picking to prove your point. if you go back to the threads begining you see we were talking about the 2300+sq ft model. A few times we looked at the 2100 sq ft model. Now to prove your point that we might get into the low 400’s in 2007 you pulled out a much smaller model that was never part of the thread. If you look back to August 2006 posts you will see asking prices in the low 500’s for the larger models and your speculating they would dip below 500K. One year later we still see them closing above 500K.

SD R,
Jeezuz! if 30 to 60 day comps arent current enough what is? You also missed a pending on Camino Verde with an asking price of 575,000. probably didnt go that high but certainly not in the low 400’s.

A pending of the smaller 1900 sq ft model with an asking price of $490,000 is pretty strong IMO. BTW, this floorplan was selling in the high 300’s in late 2003. Throw in the fact that Twin Oaks Valley Road now goes through San Elijo Hills dramatically improving access to the coast and I’m still calling victory on this prediction.

Guys,
I dont deny the direction of where things are heading but OCR’s call was wrong given the timing of it. As for entering 2003 pricing, that is a pretty meaningless statement as we have been there for a year already in most areas. The question is not are we in 2003 pricing but are we in January 2003 pricing which is vastly different from November 2003 pricing as there was substantial appreciation throughout the year.

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
Whatever. You are cherry picking to prove your point. if you go back to the threads begining you see we were talking about the 2300+sq ft model. A few times we looked at the 2100 sq ft model. Now to prove your point that we might get into the low 400’s in 2007 you pulled out a much smaller model that was never part of the thread. If you look back to August 2006 posts you will see asking prices in the low 500’s for the larger models and your speculating they would dip below 500K. One year later we still see them closing above 500K.

SD R,
Jeezuz! if 30 to 60 day comps arent current enough what is? You also missed a pending on Camino Verde with an asking price of 575,000. probably didnt go that high but certainly not in the low 400’s.

A pending of the smaller 1900 sq ft model with an asking price of $490,000 is pretty strong IMO. BTW, this floorplan was selling in the high 300’s in late 2003. Throw in the fact that Twin Oaks Valley Road now goes through San Elijo Hills dramatically improving access to the coast and I’m still calling victory on this prediction.

Guys,
I dont deny the direction of where things are heading but OCR’s call was wrong given the timing of it. As for entering 2003 pricing, that is a pretty meaningless statement as we have been there for a year already in most areas. The question is not are we in 2003 pricing but are we in January 2003 pricing which is vastly different from November 2003 pricing as there was substantial appreciation throughout the year.

[ocrenter]

You are speculating again. No one knows what it will take to get it done right now. There are two of the larger floorplans in escrow right now and some very recent sales well over 500K. Also you are comparing the smaller floorplan.

Bottomline, I was spot on. You were a bit premature should we say?

here’s a larger floorplan asking in the mid-400’s.

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078
–2,259 sqft for $459,000 to $475,000.

is this also a short sale attempt that we shouldn’t count?

you like to pull the “I’m right and you are wrong” game. I like to simply point out that prices are now entering into the $400’s in this neighborhood. Which is firmly in 2003 pricing. As for the folks that bought or are pending at prices “well over 500k,” just more knife catchers IMHO.

[ocrenter]

You are speculating again. No one knows what it will take to get it done right now. There are two of the larger floorplans in escrow right now and some very recent sales well over 500K. Also you are comparing the smaller floorplan.

Bottomline, I was spot on. You were a bit premature should we say?

here’s a larger floorplan asking in the mid-400’s.

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078
–2,259 sqft for $459,000 to $475,000.

is this also a short sale attempt that we shouldn’t count?

you like to pull the “I’m right and you are wrong” game. I like to simply point out that prices are now entering into the $400’s in this neighborhood. Which is firmly in 2003 pricing. As for the folks that bought or are pending at prices “well over 500k,” just more knife catchers IMHO.

[ocrenter]

You are speculating again. No one knows what it will take to get it done right now. There are two of the larger floorplans in escrow right now and some very recent sales well over 500K. Also you are comparing the smaller floorplan.

Bottomline, I was spot on. You were a bit premature should we say?

here’s a larger floorplan asking in the mid-400’s.

584 VIA DEL CABALLO, San Marcos, CA 92078
–2,259 sqft for $459,000 to $475,000.

is this also a short sale attempt that we shouldn’t count?

you like to pull the “I’m right and you are wrong” game. I like to simply point out that prices are now entering into the $400’s in this neighborhood. Which is firmly in 2003 pricing. As for the folks that bought or are pending at prices “well over 500k,” just more knife catchers IMHO.

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
You are speculating again. No one knows what it will take to get it done right now. There are two of the larger floorplans in escrow right now and some very recent sales well over 500K. Also you are comparing the smaller floorplan.

Bottomline, I was spot on. You were a bit premature should we say?

What the future brings? Well that’s the fun part we get to watch.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
You are speculating again. No one knows what it will take to get it done right now. There are two of the larger floorplans in escrow right now and some very recent sales well over 500K. Also you are comparing the smaller floorplan.

Bottomline, I was spot on. You were a bit premature should we say?

What the future brings? Well that’s the fun part we get to watch.

sdr

[ocrenter]

WHAT IS is the fact that if you really need to sell you got to lower your price to mid-lower 400’s. The rest of the sellers can sit there for another 6 months with their over 500,000 listings, they ain’t gonna get any action.

as a realtor would you advice the homeowners to just sit and wait?

[ocrenter]

WHAT IS is the fact that if you really need to sell you got to lower your price to mid-lower 400’s. The rest of the sellers can sit there for another 6 months with their over 500,000 listings, they ain’t gonna get any action.

as a realtor would you advice the homeowners to just sit and wait?

[sdrealtor]

OCR, I wont disagree but thats not the point. I compared our predictions to WHAT IS not WHAT MIGHT BE. Based upon what actually happened so far, I take the victory here.

As for the price reductions, we have a seller without patience and/or time. Average market times are about 6months these days and that guy/gal cant or wont wait.

[sdrealtor]

OCR, I wont disagree but thats not the point. I compared our predictions to WHAT IS not WHAT MIGHT BE. Based upon what actually happened so far, I take the victory here.

As for the price reductions, we have a seller without patience and/or time. Average market times are about 6months these days and that guy/gal cant or wont wait.

[ocrenter]

what I have been finding is you get the short sale attempt approaching the true price point. but the lender rejects it and let it head to foreclosure. by the time the lender has it as a REO, guess what, it is listed at the short sale prices or a bit above.

if the prices are holding up so well, why the price reductions:

–09/2007: listed for sale at $475,000.
–Price Reduced: 09/19/07 — $475,000 to $459,000
–Price Reduced: 09/26/07 — $459,000 to $445,000
–Price Reduced: 10/03/07 — $445,000 to $435,000
–Price Reduced: 10/10/07 — $435,000 to $425,000
–Price Reduced: 10/29/07 — $425,000 to $409,000

[ocrenter]

what I have been finding is you get the short sale attempt approaching the true price point. but the lender rejects it and let it head to foreclosure. by the time the lender has it as a REO, guess what, it is listed at the short sale prices or a bit above.

if the prices are holding up so well, why the price reductions:

–09/2007: listed for sale at $475,000.
–Price Reduced: 09/19/07 — $475,000 to $459,000
–Price Reduced: 09/26/07 — $459,000 to $445,000
–Price Reduced: 10/03/07 — $445,000 to $435,000
–Price Reduced: 10/10/07 — $435,000 to $425,000
–Price Reduced: 10/29/07 — $425,000 to $409,000

[sdrealtor]

JWM,
The buyer of the Short Sale put down over 20% not the seller who lost the house. Cmon, buddy user your brain a little before it atrophies.

sdr

[JWM in SD]

“The buyer of the Short Sale put down over 20% not the seller who lost the house. Cmon, buddy user your brain a little before it atrophies.”

Point taken…that’s what I get for reading this on my Treo. Tiny screens are not always good.

[JWM in SD]

“The buyer of the Short Sale put down over 20% not the seller who lost the house. Cmon, buddy user your brain a little before it atrophies.”

Point taken…that’s what I get for reading this on my Treo. Tiny screens are not always good.

[JWM in SD]

“The buyer of the Short Sale put down over 20% not the seller who lost the house. Cmon, buddy user your brain a little before it atrophies.”

Point taken…that’s what I get for reading this on my Treo. Tiny screens are not always good.

[sdrealtor]

JWM,
The buyer of the Short Sale put down over 20% not the seller who lost the house. Cmon, buddy user your brain a little before it atrophies.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

JWM,
The buyer of the Short Sale put down over 20% not the seller who lost the house. Cmon, buddy user your brain a little before it atrophies.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

dupe

[sdrealtor]

dupe

[sdrealtor]

dupe

[JWM in SD]

“It was a Short sale attempt listed at $480,000. BTW, the buyers put down over 20%”

Uhh, the buyer managed to save $96K but still couldn’t make payments???? More likely they were a move-up buyer who didn’t have the income to make the payments.

[JWM in SD]

“It was a Short sale attempt listed at $480,000. BTW, the buyers put down over 20%”

Uhh, the buyer managed to save $96K but still couldn’t make payments???? More likely they were a move-up buyer who didn’t have the income to make the payments.

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
As one of the original posters on this thread I like my prediction much more than yours as of this date. The proeprty you are referencing is a short sale attempt at a price the lender likely has no knowledge of and a smaller floorplan with less bedrooms.

Here are the last 2 closed comps.

2172 sq ft closed on 9/24/07 for $545,900. BTW, the buyer put about 30% down.

2445 sq ft closed on 8/22/07 for $559,900. BTW, buyer put down over 50%.

The last sale of the floorplan you are referencing (1909 sq ft) closed on 7/19/07 at $490,000. It was a Short sale attempt listed at $480,000. BTW, the buyers put down over 20%.

It appears this hood is holding up very well with 5 current active listings and two others ine scrow with asking prices in the same ballpark as the recent closed sales.

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
As one of the original posters on this thread I like my prediction much more than yours as of this date. The proeprty you are referencing is a short sale attempt at a price the lender likely has no knowledge of and a smaller floorplan with less bedrooms.

Here are the last 2 closed comps.

2172 sq ft closed on 9/24/07 for $545,900. BTW, the buyer put about 30% down.

2445 sq ft closed on 8/22/07 for $559,900. BTW, buyer put down over 50%.

The last sale of the floorplan you are referencing (1909 sq ft) closed on 7/19/07 at $490,000. It was a Short sale attempt listed at $480,000. BTW, the buyers put down over 20%.

It appears this hood is holding up very well with 5 current active listings and two others ine scrow with asking prices in the same ballpark as the recent closed sales.

[ocrenter]

ocrenter’s call in ’06:
“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.”
___________________________

There is certainly still time for ocrenter’s prediction to be realized. If this neighborhood completely tanks and prices plunge 25-30% over the next 2-6 months, he/she will be right. Certainly not a bet I would make.

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/10/if-only-i-waited-in-bellezasan-marcos.html

[ocrenter]

ocrenter’s call in ’06:
“San Marcos currently has a 1 year supply of homes for sale, now we got 4 foreclosures in one single community. I’m now looking at these properties going down into low $400,000’s mid to late next year.”
___________________________

There is certainly still time for ocrenter’s prediction to be realized. If this neighborhood completely tanks and prices plunge 25-30% over the next 2-6 months, he/she will be right. Certainly not a bet I would make.

http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/2007/10/if-only-i-waited-in-bellezasan-marcos.html

[North County Jim]

It appears “sold” in this case is a euphemism. The property was deeded to the foreclosure trustee on 2/6/06.

As for the sales price of $640k, I’ll leave that to those more knowledgeable.

The former owner looks like he went on a buying spree in 2004. The recorded documents index shows seven default notices in 2005.

[sdrealtor]

hardly a buying spree. Guy bought house in August 2004 that he couldnt afford (i.e. 100% financing) and greatly overpaid at absolute peak of market. Guy realizes mistake and puts back on market in December 2004 trying to get out. House sits on market for more than 1 year because he cant sell at a loss. He didnt have any money to begin with. House gets foreclosed and lender takes an 80K bath. Coming soon…..house sells around 600K and lender gets another 80K bath.

[North County Jim]

Maybe just a matter of semantics but I would characterize taking title to five properties in the county in a four month span as a buying spree.

However, the real point of this guy’s story is how many more are in the same boat.

[sdrealtor]

A little more semantics but all the NOD’s were likely filed against the same property. I checked the tax records and as far as I can tell it is the only property he has ever owned in SD.

[North County Jim]

You may want to check the recorded documents index. I’m guessing – only guessing – that this was not his only default.

[sdrealtor]

no time..no one by his last name has ever owned any other property per the online tax records I have quick access to.

[North County Jim]

I’d rather not post a link to the index of his recorded documents. Trust me, he is the grantee on five separate deeds over a four month period in 2004. In each and every deed transfer, he is the grantor on two trust deeds. I’ll go ahead and conclude 80/20’s all around.

I’ll defer to your knowledge on the foreclosure process but I think it’s a stretch to think that this is his only default.

[powayseller]

RealtyTrac shows 4 NTS on the same property, all filed on 12/8/05. Three are for a house on lot 85, 2128 sq ft. and the last is for a house on lot 83, 2099 sq ft.

[ocrenter]

did you guys see how the picture of the lawn is paintbrushed brown by the selling agent?

so do we know how they got the “selling price” of $640,000 when it foreclosed in Feb 2006?

[sdrealtor]

It’s in the tax records. That is what teh lender accepted for the note and all unpaid liens in arrears.