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August 2, 2006 at 11:10 PM #7077August 3, 2006 at 12:51 AM #30557anParticipant
I agree with you, the most important thing about these news segments is that it’s finally making prime time news. To me, it’s one of the key thing that will change public psychology. Psychology was what pushed it to this level and psychology will be what take it down to where it should be.
August 3, 2006 at 7:48 AM #30560ocrenterParticipantin 2005 only 11% of all notice of defaults went to trustee’s sales, there’s been a gradual increase here in 2006 from 10.6% in January 2006 to roughly 18% in April/May 2006. This means as of May 2006, the percentage change in the total number of trustee’s sales is a staggering 232% compared to the same time period in 2005.
August 3, 2006 at 7:56 AM #30562BugsParticipantHere’s a quote from the article in today’s Union-Tribune:
“This is an important trend to watch, but doesn’t strike us as ominous,” DataQuick President Marshall Prentice said in a news release. “The increase was a statistical certainty, because the number of defaults had fallen to such extreme lows. We would have to see defaults roughly double from today’s level before they would begin to impact home values much.”
As the number of NODs increases, so will the percentage of foreclosures rise among those NODs. Once again, it’s not the raw numbers that matter so much as it is the trend. The trend was going in one direction and now it has reversed course.
August 3, 2006 at 7:59 AM #30563zkParticipant“We would have to see defaults roughly double from today’s level before they would begin to impact home values much.”
Interesting. I hope somebody shows him his own quote when defaults double from today’s level and asks him about it then. I’d like to hear his comments then.
August 3, 2006 at 8:56 AM #30564Steve BeeboParticipantI’m sure that NODs will at least double in the next 12 months, but keep in mind that the total # of NODs is about 1/4 of what it was in the mid 1990’s – so they would have to quadruple from todays’ level to match. Will they quadruple from now to 2008? I would guess probably so –
August 3, 2006 at 9:10 AM #30565AnonymousGuestI wouldn’t be surprised if NODs double or even quadruple in the next 12 months. I see this thing unravelling sooner than many think. More importantly, the percentage of NODs that are actually foreclosed will most certainly be higher than the historical average of 7% that they mention in the UT article. The climate is much different now than 1996 with so many mortgages of the ARM variety. The ARM resets should begin in to have a major impact in the next year. Addidionally, MLS inventory is already higher than in 1996 and growing making it very difficult to unload your property.
August 3, 2006 at 9:48 AM #30566no_such_realityParticipantNODs nearing historical average
hmm, statewide, NODs are are 21K per quarter. Historical average is 32K/quarter. Peak in ’96 was 59K.
We went from 12K to 20K in one year as the market turned. The peak of 59K was at the end of the last bust cycle after 6 years of falling prices. If I was in Vegas, I’d wager we’ll beat the 59K Q1 of 2007.
LA Times Article on quarterly defaults Thurday, link
August 3, 2006 at 10:07 AM #30567BugsParticipantIt is the rate of change that is so alarming to me.
August 3, 2006 at 10:19 AM #30568speakerParticipantLet us also not forget that this time these defaults are more than likely going out to homeowners that have no equity in their home. They have no equity either because they put no money down or they re-fied.
“End of line.”
August 3, 2006 at 10:30 AM #30569AnonymousGuestExactly. That’s why I am sure the percentage of notices that actually go to foreclosure will be much higher than 7%.
August 3, 2006 at 12:14 PM #30580ybcParticipantTwo interesting measures will be quarterly default notice as % of inventory and as % of quarterly sales for exsiting home. I assume that unless the lender and the default homeowner work out an alternate payment solution, otherwise the solution is always the sale of the house – either by the owner or by the bank. So I see default notices represent a pipeline of potential “urgent” sales coming on the market, then the above two percentages can be a leading indicator. I wouldn’t be surprised if these numbers have positive correlations to subsequent price changes. Anyone knows where to find the data needed to make the calculation?
Also, do you know if these default notices are “One-time” only, or do home owners in default get them in a couple of months in a row? How does the process work?
August 3, 2006 at 5:43 PM #30600rankandfileParticipantAre there any good resources to check on Notices of Default?
August 6, 2006 at 6:58 AM #30908powaysellerParticipantforeclosure.com
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