[ocrenter]

[quote=briansd1][quote=ocrenter]
But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.[/quote]

I don’t agree on this. Those houses are functionally obsolete and before the bubble, they did not command that much of a premium over a new house inland. There will be an adjustment.

I don’t think that houses will drop much anymore because the world is awash in capital. Much of he world is peaceful and there is not much competition for capital these days. Central banks are pumping money into their economies.

I foresee a long period of stagnation for US housing with more choices for buyers. Proportional to income, housing will be cost less.[/quote]

I agree with the long term stagnation of the economy. But these homes, even though small and old, are the middle of the housing stock in places like PB. and I don’t see the middle moving all that much, primarily as these are SFRs.

Plus overall there simply wasn’t the amount of speculation in these homes back in the bubble days to supply large amount of “underwater” sellers needed to drop that segment of the market. What will simply happen is the owners will hold on and pass it on to their offsprings.

On the other hand, large new ultra-luxury homes in the millions and small condos were quite bubbly back in the days. Therefore, payback will come around.

[ocrenter]

[quote=briansd1][quote=ocrenter]
But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.[/quote]

I don’t agree on this. Those houses are functionally obsolete and before the bubble, they did not command that much of a premium over a new house inland. There will be an adjustment.

I don’t think that houses will drop much anymore because the world is awash in capital. Much of he world is peaceful and there is not much competition for capital these days. Central banks are pumping money into their economies.

I foresee a long period of stagnation for US housing with more choices for buyers. Proportional to income, housing will be cost less.[/quote]

I agree with the long term stagnation of the economy. But these homes, even though small and old, are the middle of the housing stock in places like PB. and I don’t see the middle moving all that much, primarily as these are SFRs.

Plus overall there simply wasn’t the amount of speculation in these homes back in the bubble days to supply large amount of “underwater” sellers needed to drop that segment of the market. What will simply happen is the owners will hold on and pass it on to their offsprings.

On the other hand, large new ultra-luxury homes in the millions and small condos were quite bubbly back in the days. Therefore, payback will come around.

[ocrenter]

here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.

So frankly, if you got your eyes on that $3 million dollar ocean front condo. you probably do want to wait to save yourself a million.

But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.

[ocrenter]

here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.

So frankly, if you got your eyes on that $3 million dollar ocean front condo. you probably do want to wait to save yourself a million.

But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.

[ocrenter]

here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.

So frankly, if you got your eyes on that $3 million dollar ocean front condo. you probably do want to wait to save yourself a million.

But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.

[ocrenter]

here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.

So frankly, if you got your eyes on that $3 million dollar ocean front condo. you probably do want to wait to save yourself a million.

But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.

[ocrenter]

here’s the two scenarios being debated in regard to established coastal markets:

scenario #1: prices for the most part stays the same, maybe go slightly down. some of the extremely high end will come down to the “very high end.” some of the “very high end” move down to just “high end” (I’m referring to above $1 million market.) But expect the middle of the market to not really budge. Expect the condos especially non-ocean-view and smaller units to get creamed. There will be occasional exceptional bargains that sdr talks about. but they will remain the exception rather than the rule.

scenario #2: general and total collapse in prices, you can pick up a 2000 sqft PB home for half a million easy.

I personally vote for scenario #1.

So frankly, if you got your eyes on that $3 million dollar ocean front condo. you probably do want to wait to save yourself a million.

But if you are hoping to pick up a small SFR circa 1940’s in original condition for half a million. stay active and grab the best bargain there is today, there really isnt a point to keep waiting.

[ocrenter]

what else is new.

another article in MSM affirming what was already articulated on the blogosphere couple of years ago…

[ocrenter]

what else is new.

another article in MSM affirming what was already articulated on the blogosphere couple of years ago…

[ocrenter]

what else is new.

another article in MSM affirming what was already articulated on the blogosphere couple of years ago…

[ocrenter]

what else is new.

another article in MSM affirming what was already articulated on the blogosphere couple of years ago…

[ocrenter]

what else is new.

another article in MSM affirming what was already articulated on the blogosphere couple of years ago…

[ocrenter]

troll alert, I got sucked in first. my bad.

[ocrenter]

troll alert, I got sucked in first. my bad.

[ocrenter]

troll alert, I got sucked in first. my bad.

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