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NotCranky
ParticipantRusSubmitted by AK on May 17, 2007 – 10:17am.
“Liquidity is nice, but I doubt the average person can earn a consistent after-tax return exceeding the interest on an IO mortgage.”You are 100% correct. One can be average in every other way but for a certain set of econmic factors , not be average in the ability to make a large capital gain fairly risk free in a period of time short enough not to sweat the interest only loans. Basic business acumen has to be applied.
I will give you an example. Average guy has home long term, doesn’t borrow against it …Bubble comes along and because this person pays attention to pigginton say year 2018( who cares about the year). Guy says wow I can get an “interest only” (favorable to cashflow),shop for a property build a house on it sell one of them off to pay some or all loans and have made equity gain . Just a very simplistic example. Could have bought rentals in other markets, opened a business pretty much anything that aligns with the investor,s strengths. I personally think the plan should have an exit strategy but that might not always be neccesary. It is not much of a gamble.
People that are not average(wealth) probably don’t need to raise capital this way so it is designed for the right kind of average person. IMHOParticipantJJ the conversation sdr and i had for the most part should have been private …obviously. They must be extremely boring.We are both way too argumentative for the “common good”. I am sure he will refute that!
About your comments..
“Regarding CV, its been a strong market since it was built and it is a safe bet to assume if blood starts running in the streets there, people in other neighborhoods will be flat out drowning”Yes indeed , what a prime location ,comparatively good housing stock..
“In fact, it seems to me that CV is basically, and very roughly, a lagging indicator for a cbad market, and a forward indicator for a coming good market.”
On this on I agree with lagging indicator remark and thanks for bringing that pertinent insight to the discussion.I am not sure I get the forward indicator part especially in light of what was brought up about “flight to quality” giving CV good support. I think what you said at first just makes Cv strong without making it be really that great of a reflection on 90% of other markets. IMHO
ParticipantJJ the conversation sdr and i had for the most part should have been private …obviously. They must be extremely boring.We are both way too argumentative for the “common good”. I am sure he will refute that!
About your comments..
“Regarding CV, its been a strong market since it was built and it is a safe bet to assume if blood starts running in the streets there, people in other neighborhoods will be flat out drowning”Yes indeed , what a prime location ,comparatively good housing stock..
“In fact, it seems to me that CV is basically, and very roughly, a lagging indicator for a cbad market, and a forward indicator for a coming good market.”
On this on I agree with lagging indicator remark and thanks for bringing that pertinent insight to the discussion.I am not sure I get the forward indicator part especially in light of what was brought up about “flight to quality” giving CV good support. I think what you said at first just makes Cv strong without making it be really that great of a reflection on 90% of other markets. IMHO
ParticipantBeside Concho remarks “interest only” are good as a source of “cheap capital” at the right times for the right people. Basic requirements for it to be a “good loan” are that the borrower be in an extremely good equity position and have a good plan for using the capital, hopefully a nearly fool proof business plan or investment and even better an exit strategy to cover. What is even better about “interest only” is that some come with a decent teaser rate. Old school was that only people who could demonstrate that they meet the kinds of parameters I am describing could get them . Let’s hope they stay available.
ParticipantBeside Concho remarks “interest only” are good as a source of “cheap capital” at the right times for the right people. Basic requirements for it to be a “good loan” are that the borrower be in an extremely good equity position and have a good plan for using the capital, hopefully a nearly fool proof business plan or investment and even better an exit strategy to cover. What is even better about “interest only” is that some come with a decent teaser rate. Old school was that only people who could demonstrate that they meet the kinds of parameters I am describing could get them . Let’s hope they stay available.
ParticipantThe dedication part was joke. CV is my new favorite indicator. I told you why I took the 4 day example data group the way I did in the previous post.I believe Realtors are trying to dress this pig up all the way down!
I believe that the post soft landing marketing verbiage goes something like this ‘Yeah there are some signs in the market blah blah blah ….still It is going to take so long and inflation adjusts these things…blah blah blah it won’t be worth waiting in the long run.Besides credit is drying up you better go for it!
Any rational person is taking into consideration the fact that interest rates are good, That inflation mitigates some of the burden of a mortgages. So the salesman attempts to do what salesmen do overcome obstacles to transactions. The key to doing that at this point is to lower the expectatons of a crash.I don’t overcome obstacles to transactions. I don’t dress up pigs.I decided a long time ago that my clients had to be more important than my commissions.I am a little suspicious that your leanings are too close to the mainstream propaganda? Could be completely coincidental. We didn’t have good mutual understanding about what I meant about helping average people accomplish average things. I just meant I don’t take credit for bubble money that people made. I like to help people make good without hype. I don’t buy too much into selling people something “special” that sounds like manipulative self serving marketing too.You know people and marketing very well.I am fiscally conservative and I can’t get over trying to make the world fiscally conservative and maybe even realatively modest.You can imagine that is a real deal killer in your neck of the woods.
If by extrodinary people you mean rich and powerful which given that you compare them to the civil service fellow and the waitress, I am going to assume you do, I guess yes it is a good idea to serve them.They deserve it no less certainly than the average joe. I explained who the bulk of my clients are to SD Realtor in a post earlier.
I think you are hung up on your way being the right and better way and it is natural.I am glad you are confident. It sounds like you are being competetive to me, we all have to be “special” in this business don’t we? Face it I take picking up clients less seriously or even less desperately …notice that my psuedonym does not have Realtor in it? But when I do have clients I am advocate pure and simple.Hence I have only one client that will ever be upside down. I hope that you have a similiar quantity.
I blame our industry for using people and screwing the market up or at least being middle men and in doing so they screwed it up for me too, By taking away something I liked doing because my values wouldn’t allow me to participate in it. We have a bunch of people sitting around hoping to fulfill their entitlement to “special” houses and the fortunes they can make from them while America is going to hell in handbasket. I am an Idealist. You are arguing with an Idealist it is going to be very frustrating no? Why do you keep wanting to be villified are you seeking character building opportunities or what?
Good nightParticipantThe dedication part was joke. CV is my new favorite indicator. I told you why I took the 4 day example data group the way I did in the previous post.I believe Realtors are trying to dress this pig up all the way down!
I believe that the post soft landing marketing verbiage goes something like this ‘Yeah there are some signs in the market blah blah blah ….still It is going to take so long and inflation adjusts these things…blah blah blah it won’t be worth waiting in the long run.Besides credit is drying up you better go for it!
Any rational person is taking into consideration the fact that interest rates are good, That inflation mitigates some of the burden of a mortgages. So the salesman attempts to do what salesmen do overcome obstacles to transactions. The key to doing that at this point is to lower the expectatons of a crash.I don’t overcome obstacles to transactions. I don’t dress up pigs.I decided a long time ago that my clients had to be more important than my commissions.I am a little suspicious that your leanings are too close to the mainstream propaganda? Could be completely coincidental. We didn’t have good mutual understanding about what I meant about helping average people accomplish average things. I just meant I don’t take credit for bubble money that people made. I like to help people make good without hype. I don’t buy too much into selling people something “special” that sounds like manipulative self serving marketing too.You know people and marketing very well.I am fiscally conservative and I can’t get over trying to make the world fiscally conservative and maybe even realatively modest.You can imagine that is a real deal killer in your neck of the woods.
If by extrodinary people you mean rich and powerful which given that you compare them to the civil service fellow and the waitress, I am going to assume you do, I guess yes it is a good idea to serve them.They deserve it no less certainly than the average joe. I explained who the bulk of my clients are to SD Realtor in a post earlier.
I think you are hung up on your way being the right and better way and it is natural.I am glad you are confident. It sounds like you are being competetive to me, we all have to be “special” in this business don’t we? Face it I take picking up clients less seriously or even less desperately …notice that my psuedonym does not have Realtor in it? But when I do have clients I am advocate pure and simple.Hence I have only one client that will ever be upside down. I hope that you have a similiar quantity.
I blame our industry for using people and screwing the market up or at least being middle men and in doing so they screwed it up for me too, By taking away something I liked doing because my values wouldn’t allow me to participate in it. We have a bunch of people sitting around hoping to fulfill their entitlement to “special” houses and the fortunes they can make from them while America is going to hell in handbasket. I am an Idealist. You are arguing with an Idealist it is going to be very frustrating no? Why do you keep wanting to be villified are you seeking character building opportunities or what?
Good nightParticipantSD Thanks for your reply and for giving me more insight into the dynamics here. I realized that the crowd is a little more educated, to much more educated and wealthy, than the general populace. More than myself on average I am sure. At a point I decided that completing a degree was a liability for myself so I guess I will never catch up .I have done extremely well from where I started.I would be stratified out if we were in a room instead on the blog. I don’t really care. We all know this stratification has a profound effect on who our clients are. So we deal with it we adjust for our own personality quirks and skills and connections. Like you I have sold in all ranges but mostly to first time buyer,working class people and stable middle class folks. The boom ruined it for me because I just couldn’t sell people this stuff and I think that is where we differ.It made me sick to see all these whores running around (men and women to be pc),with the portraits plastered on their suv’s pimpimg houses.Pardon my language. I only have one client that will ever be upside down and it pains me greatly even though I screamed at them not to buy. Actually they were upside down faster than the ink dried on the docs. I did everything but walk away. They are in a bad way. I don’t want to add to the list so I am cautious. I am too sensitive for this business ultimately. I refuse to exploit my strengths because of it. What is a guy supposed to do?
That is why I don’t just think there will be a bust, I need there to be one if I am to practice much real estate.The people that I know who could safely trade up are staying put for now. I have never prospected/farmed in the traditional ways, not one bit. I probably don’t need the income as long as we live modestly and actually that is a habit.I am a general contractor, I hope to keep myself employed building a small portfolio of middle class rentals to keep for income & retirement. Maybe I will get bigger ideas who knows. I am pretty much doing the same thing with the blog as you, learning, joking around, sharing something if I can. I branch out into the other than housing market topics maybe a little more than either you or sdr.I won’t be willing to or able to spend as much time here as I have in the last few weeks but I look forward to seeing you around so to speak.Best wishes
ParticipantSD Thanks for your reply and for giving me more insight into the dynamics here. I realized that the crowd is a little more educated, to much more educated and wealthy, than the general populace. More than myself on average I am sure. At a point I decided that completing a degree was a liability for myself so I guess I will never catch up .I have done extremely well from where I started.I would be stratified out if we were in a room instead on the blog. I don’t really care. We all know this stratification has a profound effect on who our clients are. So we deal with it we adjust for our own personality quirks and skills and connections. Like you I have sold in all ranges but mostly to first time buyer,working class people and stable middle class folks. The boom ruined it for me because I just couldn’t sell people this stuff and I think that is where we differ.It made me sick to see all these whores running around (men and women to be pc),with the portraits plastered on their suv’s pimpimg houses.Pardon my language. I only have one client that will ever be upside down and it pains me greatly even though I screamed at them not to buy. Actually they were upside down faster than the ink dried on the docs. I did everything but walk away. They are in a bad way. I don’t want to add to the list so I am cautious. I am too sensitive for this business ultimately. I refuse to exploit my strengths because of it. What is a guy supposed to do?
That is why I don’t just think there will be a bust, I need there to be one if I am to practice much real estate.The people that I know who could safely trade up are staying put for now. I have never prospected/farmed in the traditional ways, not one bit. I probably don’t need the income as long as we live modestly and actually that is a habit.I am a general contractor, I hope to keep myself employed building a small portfolio of middle class rentals to keep for income & retirement. Maybe I will get bigger ideas who knows. I am pretty much doing the same thing with the blog as you, learning, joking around, sharing something if I can. I branch out into the other than housing market topics maybe a little more than either you or sdr.I won’t be willing to or able to spend as much time here as I have in the last few weeks but I look forward to seeing you around so to speak.Best wishes
ParticipantNew renter as you can see we have been trying to work this out. We all make mistakes.
ParticipantNew renter as you can see we have been trying to work this out. We all make mistakes.
ParticipantPlease do an improved CV monitor or drop it,Un-dedicate to me as I still fail to be gratified by it, work on the delvery of it and repost it. If you are open to that I will try to come up with suggestions.As I said there are more qualified people than me here for that. I am sure you are already able to gleen some ideas from the posts here. You never supported the bellweather argument.IMO. It just doesn’t hold up unless you define it more carefully.I don’t see the use in it unless you want to buy there, as a few of your followers do.I really don’t need a specific neigborhood “canary” My interests are broader than that.I also care about the investment opportunity angle at this time since I own my home free and clear and I like where I live. I don’t like dreamers for clients.I like to help ordinary people win at real estate in average ways.I don’t think that is going to happen in CV or other places for a while and that is why I got mad when you extrapolated those four days so badly. As you know I feel terrible about our industry. We can not deny that many people have been used in this binge.Used by our colleagues. I apologize for attributing bad motives to you.On the other hand I am excited about new opportunities and the early 90’s was fun for me,I get excited about foreclosures.I do think that ultimately there is some justice in prices coming down. I still feel that it is all “local” with a universal trend toward a bust.I take one area at a time and take it seperately. I do compare neighborhoods because the anlysis is so necessary for giving to and getting feed back from our clients and working with their parameters.
ParticipantPlease do an improved CV monitor or drop it,Un-dedicate to me as I still fail to be gratified by it, work on the delvery of it and repost it. If you are open to that I will try to come up with suggestions.As I said there are more qualified people than me here for that. I am sure you are already able to gleen some ideas from the posts here. You never supported the bellweather argument.IMO. It just doesn’t hold up unless you define it more carefully.I don’t see the use in it unless you want to buy there, as a few of your followers do.I really don’t need a specific neigborhood “canary” My interests are broader than that.I also care about the investment opportunity angle at this time since I own my home free and clear and I like where I live. I don’t like dreamers for clients.I like to help ordinary people win at real estate in average ways.I don’t think that is going to happen in CV or other places for a while and that is why I got mad when you extrapolated those four days so badly. As you know I feel terrible about our industry. We can not deny that many people have been used in this binge.Used by our colleagues. I apologize for attributing bad motives to you.On the other hand I am excited about new opportunities and the early 90’s was fun for me,I get excited about foreclosures.I do think that ultimately there is some justice in prices coming down. I still feel that it is all “local” with a universal trend toward a bust.I take one area at a time and take it seperately. I do compare neighborhoods because the anlysis is so necessary for giving to and getting feed back from our clients and working with their parameters.
Participantgn I think some people are just glad to have free information and don’t care about ..the details..keeping relevant and clear,as best as is possible is un-important to them. It appears you would like to use your mind? That’s difficult with all the starstruck, CV hopefuls and other future buyers chirping in.
Excuse me, that irreverent streak just won’t go away.
I am sure I will be banned.Somebody do it and get me out of my misery!My wife, who is smarter than me , would say that this thread is hopeless because the premise wasn’t sincere.
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