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NotCranky
ParticipantCy & Late
I think there are actually just a few of us that are guessing that a big chunk of the recent appreciation is coming out soon. Most are of the “It will be long and slow camp”. I have no pride on the line. It’s just fun to opine. I guess I am going to choose to watch the value of my house decline. Right now I could sell and try to time the bottom but I think my opportunity to do so will be over soon. I did time the top an sold my other property which enabled me to pay cash for my current property and house which I built(am finishing).It is absolutely not that I don’t understand the writing on the wall. We like where we live and the yard is a gently rolling 20 acres with views to Downtown and Point Loma. We are permitted to build another house here.I am not sure we wan’t to give that all up. It’s 45 minutes from down town.Bugs,if you read this would you be so kind as to state wether you think homes on acreage will hold up a little better or not? Not that it is going to change my mind.
My guess is that my property will go from about $800k to $425k. I guess I am ready to live with that.Obviously in theory it could go down to zero but at that point I think we have more important things to worry about!My goals since my first child was born are to be debt free and live in what is hopefully a safe and sound enviornment.My financial goals now are to aquire sources of passive income.The second house would produce income right away or my wife’s parents could live there if they wanted to. Actually I would love to have them closer to my family.
So anyway,I guess we get excited about doing things our own way and nothing is going to change that!
Best wishesParticipantCY
I am not really unsympathetic to JG’s point of view on the education of children or to him for that matter. I see chance to play devil’s advocate I take it.Just throwing out observations here and there. My kids are young I am not sure what we will do. I have read some of your other post and you are in a different league financially. The debate might be different if money were not an issue.We live in Jamul and I feel that the schools should be O.K if we use them.The area is becoming less rural and more upscale suburban which only matters to me because I think upscale suburban is better for education and crime rates than rural or inner city. My wife and I are very hands on parents. I don’t like the idea of home schooling,even though we can pull it off. Forming a group of parents with various talents is an idea we have considered.Either way I take responsibility for my childs education. If they show genius they won’t be held back by me.If they are average I will do my best to help them too.I won’t put them in private schools just so we and they can mingle with the right people and all that.
I agree that the experience,from a childs perspective at many of the public schools ammounts to cruel and unusual punishment. I feel bad for the hard working, education minded kids who must attend that kind of circus.Most of the acting out kids are parenting deficient but they are very disruptive all the same.The teachers have little authority because there is often no parent who can be counted on to back them up. School administrators do not always back them up. The kids have to be in school by law.It is very expensive and a political disaster to single them out for special treatment. I agree with you that most of the teachers, however imperfect, deserve a lot of respect and help.
I don’t believe that money is the solution to all problems in education. Look at the asian immigrants who come here. What do you imagine was spent on their education in their respective countries of origin? How much does it cost to learn calculus? Wastefulness and using money as an excuse for everything , along with the trend to abdicate personal ethics and responsibility are a big part of the problem.ParticipantCY
I am not really unsympathetic to JG’s point of view on the education of children or to him for that matter. I see chance to play devil’s advocate I take it.Just throwing out observations here and there. My kids are young I am not sure what we will do. I have read some of your other post and you are in a different league financially. The debate might be different if money were not an issue.We live in Jamul and I feel that the schools should be O.K if we use them.The area is becoming less rural and more upscale suburban which only matters to me because I think upscale suburban is better for education and crime rates than rural or inner city. My wife and I are very hands on parents. I don’t like the idea of home schooling,even though we can pull it off. Forming a group of parents with various talents is an idea we have considered.Either way I take responsibility for my childs education. If they show genius they won’t be held back by me.If they are average I will do my best to help them too.I won’t put them in private schools just so we and they can mingle with the right people and all that.
I agree that the experience,from a childs perspective at many of the public schools ammounts to cruel and unusual punishment. I feel bad for the hard working, education minded kids who must attend that kind of circus.Most of the acting out kids are parenting deficient but they are very disruptive all the same.The teachers have little authority because there is often no parent who can be counted on to back them up. School administrators do not always back them up. The kids have to be in school by law.It is very expensive and a political disaster to single them out for special treatment. I agree with you that most of the teachers, however imperfect, deserve a lot of respect and help.
I don’t believe that money is the solution to all problems in education. Look at the asian immigrants who come here. What do you imagine was spent on their education in their respective countries of origin? How much does it cost to learn calculus? Wastefulness and using money as an excuse for everything , along with the trend to abdicate personal ethics and responsibility are a big part of the problem.June 1, 2007 at 11:07 PM in reply to: So I pulled the trigger: My buying experience in Temecula (long story) #56062Participant23109VC your rationale sounds quite good. I dislike 2 stories as well, there is a glut of them relative to the aging population . You got the things covered that matter to you. Good Job.
On the topic of what it costs to build these tract homes. I would be suprised to find that the builders can do it for less than $80-$100/ sq.ft depending on upgrades. I am just making an educated guess. I don’t know what the lots/infrastructure cost them. As far as owner builder or spec houses $125-$150/sq.ft+site work for similiar housing would be very reasonable in this area. Custom is higher. $200 sq.ft is a number I have frequently heard for replacing the houses from the cedar fires. That includes demo and site preparation.This is all ballpark for good but not exceptional houses.
June 1, 2007 at 11:07 PM in reply to: So I pulled the trigger: My buying experience in Temecula (long story) #56081Participant23109VC your rationale sounds quite good. I dislike 2 stories as well, there is a glut of them relative to the aging population . You got the things covered that matter to you. Good Job.
On the topic of what it costs to build these tract homes. I would be suprised to find that the builders can do it for less than $80-$100/ sq.ft depending on upgrades. I am just making an educated guess. I don’t know what the lots/infrastructure cost them. As far as owner builder or spec houses $125-$150/sq.ft+site work for similiar housing would be very reasonable in this area. Custom is higher. $200 sq.ft is a number I have frequently heard for replacing the houses from the cedar fires. That includes demo and site preparation.This is all ballpark for good but not exceptional houses.
June 1, 2007 at 12:46 PM in reply to: So I pulled the trigger: My buying experience in Temecula (long story) #55933ParticipantThank you John.
Here is another way of looking at it. Even if interest rates and the lowered pricing resulted in the same monthly costs, are there no advantages to having less debt or a better equity position?
Whoever buys using the logic demonstrated in you italicized quote,especially if they reasonably anticipate depreciatation ,as most here do….
…might have a debtor mentality. That said there is legitmate concern for interest rates. Hopefully the factor is considered appropriately and absolutely without fear. At this point it seems that concerns over a depreciating market and potential recession would have more weight in decision making than interest rates, especially if one is going to make a relatively highly leveraged purchase.June 1, 2007 at 12:46 PM in reply to: So I pulled the trigger: My buying experience in Temecula (long story) #55951ParticipantThank you John.
Here is another way of looking at it. Even if interest rates and the lowered pricing resulted in the same monthly costs, are there no advantages to having less debt or a better equity position?
Whoever buys using the logic demonstrated in you italicized quote,especially if they reasonably anticipate depreciatation ,as most here do….
…might have a debtor mentality. That said there is legitmate concern for interest rates. Hopefully the factor is considered appropriately and absolutely without fear. At this point it seems that concerns over a depreciating market and potential recession would have more weight in decision making than interest rates, especially if one is going to make a relatively highly leveraged purchase.ParticipantYou are welcome Counselor,
It’s not that serious. Also,what goes around comes around. You do not seem too adverse to laying it on now and then.Your answer to FSD is “I thought I had a point there”. You should know wether or not you had a point. You can both agree that you did ,but relative to the thread I don’t see it. Your concerns were addressed before and after you got on the thread and you just kept going on and on.
Your point, whatever it is and you of course are wecome to express it, never was the topic of debate in my opinion. In fact no one debates it at all. Yes,there is no specific 2004 number exclusive of individual comparisions or maybe even inclusive of them.You win!Let me give you an example of how I percieve the comments related to “20XX” as defining a pricing point. My conjecture has it that there is a possibility I could sell my house today and wait a few years and then buy two at 2001-2002 prices. That’s relevant enough for conjecture. If I am off by 40k or 50k It doesn’t matter.We would be talking about 10% of the value on each replacement house. That 10% is miniscule compared to the past appreciation and probable depreciation scenarios.As your friend adn mine FSD would point out ,it is all speculation until it happens anyway. So why would one even bother to be exact at this time? My other point is, why does anyone else have to satisfy your needs to have a discussion arranged with the metrics done your way if nothing being proposed is actually factually corrupt?
2001 prices for everybody!
Best WishesParticipantYou are welcome Counselor,
It’s not that serious. Also,what goes around comes around. You do not seem too adverse to laying it on now and then.Your answer to FSD is “I thought I had a point there”. You should know wether or not you had a point. You can both agree that you did ,but relative to the thread I don’t see it. Your concerns were addressed before and after you got on the thread and you just kept going on and on.
Your point, whatever it is and you of course are wecome to express it, never was the topic of debate in my opinion. In fact no one debates it at all. Yes,there is no specific 2004 number exclusive of individual comparisions or maybe even inclusive of them.You win!Let me give you an example of how I percieve the comments related to “20XX” as defining a pricing point. My conjecture has it that there is a possibility I could sell my house today and wait a few years and then buy two at 2001-2002 prices. That’s relevant enough for conjecture. If I am off by 40k or 50k It doesn’t matter.We would be talking about 10% of the value on each replacement house. That 10% is miniscule compared to the past appreciation and probable depreciation scenarios.As your friend adn mine FSD would point out ,it is all speculation until it happens anyway. So why would one even bother to be exact at this time? My other point is, why does anyone else have to satisfy your needs to have a discussion arranged with the metrics done your way if nothing being proposed is actually factually corrupt?
2001 prices for everybody!
Best WishesJune 1, 2007 at 11:22 AM in reply to: So I pulled the trigger: My buying experience in Temecula (long story) #55922ParticipantCongratulations and good luck on your new home!
Seems to me like retirees will be buying up homes in Temecula at the kinds of prices you guys are talking about and even more so if prices continue to drop. Those prices are going to be pretty competitive and Temecula seems very suitable for the relatively able bodied elderly with decent fixed incomes. Just one example..yesterday I was talking to an agent who has an elderly female client who can sell her home in Encanto which is a rough area in San Diego and will make a cash purchase of a brand new home in Temecula. My wife and I spent the long weekend in Prescott AZ.. It is mostly a retiree haven at 5,200 elevation a few hours north or Phoenix. Prices for similiar homes are also in the 400-600k range now. If this is an example of what other desirable retirement areas cost then I think Temecula can really compete.June 1, 2007 at 11:22 AM in reply to: So I pulled the trigger: My buying experience in Temecula (long story) #55941ParticipantCongratulations and good luck on your new home!
Seems to me like retirees will be buying up homes in Temecula at the kinds of prices you guys are talking about and even more so if prices continue to drop. Those prices are going to be pretty competitive and Temecula seems very suitable for the relatively able bodied elderly with decent fixed incomes. Just one example..yesterday I was talking to an agent who has an elderly female client who can sell her home in Encanto which is a rough area in San Diego and will make a cash purchase of a brand new home in Temecula. My wife and I spent the long weekend in Prescott AZ.. It is mostly a retiree haven at 5,200 elevation a few hours north or Phoenix. Prices for similiar homes are also in the 400-600k range now. If this is an example of what other desirable retirement areas cost then I think Temecula can really compete.Participant“Medians are of no value in small sample sizes” …especially when the small sample is taken for the purpose of evaluating a larger set with a broad range of values,like most beach communities. I think this has been gone over several times.
Former..You are funny!
Latesummer
Maybe it would be good for you to work with posts others have started for a while? I find it interesting without starting threads.Participant“Medians are of no value in small sample sizes” …especially when the small sample is taken for the purpose of evaluating a larger set with a broad range of values,like most beach communities. I think this has been gone over several times.
Former..You are funny!
Latesummer
Maybe it would be good for you to work with posts others have started for a while? I find it interesting without starting threads.ParticipantCounselor,
I thought your were being an over anal pissant from the point of your entry into this thread. Now I am sure.
Your question:
“So when someone says pricing is going back to 20XX levels, what number are they referring to? ”Answer,
Look at whatever house you want to compare, use your brain to analyze what that house has appreciated from since 20XX and that’s your number. As far as variation everyone has accepted that these are rough but useful estimates except you.Why would you put the burden to satisfy yourself on other posters when you have all the simple answers anyway?You are insulting the person, BUGS,who could and would help you understand what is is you are lacking understanding of. That just makes zero sense.Do I have to explain what zero I am talking about?
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