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NotCranky
ParticipantYou guys actually have me on the fence more than you know. I still think the macaroni is about to hit the fan.
The myth of the spring bounce is pretty much shattered. Latent downside tension from seller’s who believed the spring bounce theory and price accordingly.Inventory likely to go up. I don’t need to repeat everything else being said.
I don’t expect sustained good news, on interest rates, jobs or any of the other potential economic drivers.My sales pitch to buyer’s is still the same. Wait six months and if things look better, for buying, wait another six months. Time is on your side. That said , I think there will soon be deals out there for the right kind of bargain hunter. The Temecula guys are having their day more or less. I think they are just getting the chain reaction going that will drive down comps but they arent idiots either. Maybe the first bargains will be the best? I think the chain reacton is coming to a zip code near us soon. However, the deals may be the exception and in the eye of the beholder and all. Maybe the real trend will move slower and more real than nominal.I am not clarvoyant nor do I know how to spell it.
Am I backtracking ? No! I am just trying to debate reasonably. If I understand bugs, he is in the big chunk camp. As a very good appraiser who has shown detachment from the debate and even his own opinion, I think he has the best perpective to analyze the question. In any case to paraphrase him…since the appreciation happend in big chunks especially 2003-2004 I don’t see why it can’t be taken off in big chunks. Do we need a similiar but opposite catalyst to the easy lending of those days? Or can the precarious way the cards are stacked be enough? I think either will do. In shaky times the probability that the catalyst surfaces is too high for yours truly to recommend anything but caution in our local market.
ParticipantLostkitty,
Thank you,your kind words mean a lot to me.Just for laughs:
A compiliation of the most intense feedback for me so far on this blog goes like this…
Irreverent, bi-polar, philosopher,god!
I can appreciate them all, more or less!Now I must stroll around the campus in my sandals and robe and devour a few tons of figs. Then beat up my neighbor for looking at me the wrong way. After that take all my belongings to charity before I sneak into JG’s church and replace all the Bibles with Thomas Paine’s “The Age of Reason”.
Best wishes.
ParticipantLostkitty,
Thank you,your kind words mean a lot to me.Just for laughs:
A compiliation of the most intense feedback for me so far on this blog goes like this…
Irreverent, bi-polar, philosopher,god!
I can appreciate them all, more or less!Now I must stroll around the campus in my sandals and robe and devour a few tons of figs. Then beat up my neighbor for looking at me the wrong way. After that take all my belongings to charity before I sneak into JG’s church and replace all the Bibles with Thomas Paine’s “The Age of Reason”.
Best wishes.
ParticipantPerry
Of course you don’t have to confirm or deny but I would pick you for a Unitarian Universalist. I have attended many meetings and even volunteered my assistance for a few small projects but couldn’t get myself to “join”. That would be my choice if I were to affliate myself & family with a congregation. We could take JG!
best regardsParticipantPerry
Of course you don’t have to confirm or deny but I would pick you for a Unitarian Universalist. I have attended many meetings and even volunteered my assistance for a few small projects but couldn’t get myself to “join”. That would be my choice if I were to affliate myself & family with a congregation. We could take JG!
best regardsParticipant1)If you by a condo make sure it is a newer, quality building on a good location. Buying a house over a condo might come down to personal choice based on lifestyle likes and dislikes. Five years is a pretty long time to be somewhere that doesn’t mostly suit you.
2)Don’t know
3) Talk to a mortgage guy…just kidding …talk to your tax person. Maybe you do your own taxes? Maybe your mortgage guy does your taxes? The interest tax write off might be helpful. Being debt free is great and paying cash you save all kinds of fees and interest however, you might be able to build on that capital faster than you are paying out interest to the bank . Personally ,I would pay for the house in that price range as long as there are other reserves/investments.Or..you can earn 6k a year towards rent in a CD with 120k.
I think 6k goes a long way in Houston and be certain that you have the 120k to come back to San Diego?
Best wishesParticipant1)If you by a condo make sure it is a newer, quality building on a good location. Buying a house over a condo might come down to personal choice based on lifestyle likes and dislikes. Five years is a pretty long time to be somewhere that doesn’t mostly suit you.
2)Don’t know
3) Talk to a mortgage guy…just kidding …talk to your tax person. Maybe you do your own taxes? Maybe your mortgage guy does your taxes? The interest tax write off might be helpful. Being debt free is great and paying cash you save all kinds of fees and interest however, you might be able to build on that capital faster than you are paying out interest to the bank . Personally ,I would pay for the house in that price range as long as there are other reserves/investments.Or..you can earn 6k a year towards rent in a CD with 120k.
I think 6k goes a long way in Houston and be certain that you have the 120k to come back to San Diego?
Best wishesParticipantHere is another tax question.
I have been building my home for a long time(it’s a long story). I sold my house in the city in the spring of 2005. I have lived in a trailer on my property since then. My house is almost ready for the final inspection.My current property has been my mailing address all the while.If I sell it do I have to pay capital gains?ParticipantHere is another tax question.
I have been building my home for a long time(it’s a long story). I sold my house in the city in the spring of 2005. I have lived in a trailer on my property since then. My house is almost ready for the final inspection.My current property has been my mailing address all the while.If I sell it do I have to pay capital gains?ParticipantI am not picking on single moms at all as I believe they have nurtured many a family through tough situations. How do you get the average kid with rotten parenting to get a good education when that kid can’t behave in class past the third grade and at which point he starts down grading everyone else’s opportunities? Then the law says the best thing to do is to leave these acting out kids, in the mainstream classroom for as long as they manage to drag themselves to school. Then from about the ninth grade they start dropping out ,best case scenario, or worst case shifting out of the education system into the penal system.Those are the ones that don’t end up in “Special-Ed” I have worked in Special-Ed for a brief time and I can tell you special-ed with the exception of the truly disabled is a catch all for kids like I am talking about. Kids from screwed up families. We should not just sit around and watch rotten parents drag kids down acedemically anymore than we would tolerate other forms of child abuse.Those families go completely without consequences unless they are physically torturing the kids.I know, I was told to look for cigarette burns on a 4th grade kid because the fact that his two 500lb welfare parents who didn’t care if the kid went to school or not, living in 4 feet of garbage were not indication enough that something was wrong. Some kids from terrible situations do reasonably well inspite of the parenting of course. Those kids are the exception though. Why do kids have to depend on the luck of the draw of parents or some exceptional inner strength to get some leadership and a decent education in a constructive enviornment? Because our society does not care or dare to intervene.
ParticipantI am not picking on single moms at all as I believe they have nurtured many a family through tough situations. How do you get the average kid with rotten parenting to get a good education when that kid can’t behave in class past the third grade and at which point he starts down grading everyone else’s opportunities? Then the law says the best thing to do is to leave these acting out kids, in the mainstream classroom for as long as they manage to drag themselves to school. Then from about the ninth grade they start dropping out ,best case scenario, or worst case shifting out of the education system into the penal system.Those are the ones that don’t end up in “Special-Ed” I have worked in Special-Ed for a brief time and I can tell you special-ed with the exception of the truly disabled is a catch all for kids like I am talking about. Kids from screwed up families. We should not just sit around and watch rotten parents drag kids down acedemically anymore than we would tolerate other forms of child abuse.Those families go completely without consequences unless they are physically torturing the kids.I know, I was told to look for cigarette burns on a 4th grade kid because the fact that his two 500lb welfare parents who didn’t care if the kid went to school or not, living in 4 feet of garbage were not indication enough that something was wrong. Some kids from terrible situations do reasonably well inspite of the parenting of course. Those kids are the exception though. Why do kids have to depend on the luck of the draw of parents or some exceptional inner strength to get some leadership and a decent education in a constructive enviornment? Because our society does not care or dare to intervene.
Participant“I do know, however, that some seniors, with LOTS of money do quite a bit of molestation – but I’m assuming that most of it is mutual.”
I didn’t know there was such a thing as mutual molestation?
I thought that was called sex?When I traveled in Mexico I was made aware of a very stratified society. I was told that individuals from “la crema” “the creme” had many ills that the lower class would never dream of or at least, survive to perpetuate. I think that can be relevant in this country too. Evidently the protection that wealth and power provides is pretty broad in some instances.
Anyway it is unfair to implant this stuff into a debate about public or private schools. I think Drews opinion sums it up for me anyway. Our kids are going to go to a school it is our job to protect guide and be responsible for them not the schools. My Reforms of public schools would be drastic. An education would be returned to the status of a privelege not a right. Nobody would be denied an education but it would be in line with their behavior and talents.If the parents were so defective as to not be able to support an educational system the kids would go to orphanges and get their educaton there. Hopefully that incentive would be enough, with some other reforms to turn eduaction around without the need for to many family interventions. serious school reform would require an overhall of our entire society at this point and I don’t see it happening.
Participant“I do know, however, that some seniors, with LOTS of money do quite a bit of molestation – but I’m assuming that most of it is mutual.”
I didn’t know there was such a thing as mutual molestation?
I thought that was called sex?When I traveled in Mexico I was made aware of a very stratified society. I was told that individuals from “la crema” “the creme” had many ills that the lower class would never dream of or at least, survive to perpetuate. I think that can be relevant in this country too. Evidently the protection that wealth and power provides is pretty broad in some instances.
Anyway it is unfair to implant this stuff into a debate about public or private schools. I think Drews opinion sums it up for me anyway. Our kids are going to go to a school it is our job to protect guide and be responsible for them not the schools. My Reforms of public schools would be drastic. An education would be returned to the status of a privelege not a right. Nobody would be denied an education but it would be in line with their behavior and talents.If the parents were so defective as to not be able to support an educational system the kids would go to orphanges and get their educaton there. Hopefully that incentive would be enough, with some other reforms to turn eduaction around without the need for to many family interventions. serious school reform would require an overhall of our entire society at this point and I don’t see it happening.
ParticipantLate,
You don’t agree that you have intentionally or unintentionally exagerated the extent of the decay in various areas of the Socal housing market?
Maybe I am wrong but it seems every one was pretty O.K. with you including that you put your blog link here, until the “Whacked” post.
Other than that I would say that your views on potential depreciation are pretty much in line with the consensus here ,if there is one(just a little more extreme). I don’t think any of the people you mentioned by name are not bust believers. Maybe just not to the exact extent you are.
I do know that on the “May Shoe Dropped” post I ask you to explain your “Faster and Deeper” ideas several times,because I tend to be of that opinion too, and you did not accept the invitation.
This type of forum is going to invite some absurd behavior.
It doesn’t have to turn into an all out war. The smear campaign you are launching is not helpful. IMHO -
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