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NotCranky
ParticipantBugs I don’t think you are not too far off form what might be considered a big chunk by me. 20% or more in a 12 month period keeping in mind that %20 on the downside starting now will eliminate more than the 30% added, roughly speaking that happened around 2004. sdr started the post with this idea of a big chunk like this…”On the other side we have those that believe a large chunk of pricing (10% or more) is about to be taken out of the market quickly (LS2008, Rustico etc.)” I think 10% would have to be 3-6months to qualify as a “big chunk”. + or – 10% might be hard to notice with all the “noise” anyway.
sdr SD R,
I hear what you are saying about people just refusing to sell. In the last cycle I heard time and time again that “it is just a loss on paper doesn’t bother me at all”. Those people are all fine now if they haven’t done stupid things since.
So it will as, Rich has said, be all about the must sell and what buyers will do in view of that inventory.That said what is going to be must sell? From Anectdotal perspectives and and analytical ones as well this cycle got way further out of whack than the last.Who knows? Maybe San Diego has experienced the San Francisco effect and will never be affordable again? Outmigration doesn’t support this but who knows when those people and many new ones will come in to support prices?
Too many variables really.You all have a good day!
Participant“think religion is nice for kids that age. Makes them feel good.” It was great for me as long as “Jesus Loves the Little Children” and free snow cones was as far as it got. Unfortunately it got much more unacceptable as time passed, you know, learned about being ashamed of myself, the inquisition and things like that!.Who knows if we had stayed in the church JG and I could be ideological partners on the blog? My wife and I are planning on taking the kids to a Unitarian Congregation that I participated in off and on prior to getting married.Maybe I would enjoy it more with a family too? Seeing them get something out of it would be enough though. Of course you understand that already!
Lost Kitty “scanner” sounds so much better then scatter brained and lazy! You have piqued my interest with the book and I will read it. Thanks so much!
Participant“think religion is nice for kids that age. Makes them feel good.” It was great for me as long as “Jesus Loves the Little Children” and free snow cones was as far as it got. Unfortunately it got much more unacceptable as time passed, you know, learned about being ashamed of myself, the inquisition and things like that!.Who knows if we had stayed in the church JG and I could be ideological partners on the blog? My wife and I are planning on taking the kids to a Unitarian Congregation that I participated in off and on prior to getting married.Maybe I would enjoy it more with a family too? Seeing them get something out of it would be enough though. Of course you understand that already!
Lost Kitty “scanner” sounds so much better then scatter brained and lazy! You have piqued my interest with the book and I will read it. Thanks so much!
Participant“No, nature is a very powerful force. Yes, some people are born evil.”
In your story,jg maybe the adopted kid was weak? Knowing that he was abandoned by his bioligigal parents was enough to drive him over the edge. How can you know that if the roles were swapped between the two infants that the other son would not have been the murderer. You can’t.How can you know for sure how that ideal adoptive family actually behaved? You can’t.Look how long we did not know so many boys were being molested by gay pedophile men of the cloth. Your story is a fairy tale. It is convenient to believe that people are evil especially if you are Catholic.I believe people are weak or strong on a continuem throughout humanity,that is in line with a real understanding of nature too.”Born Evil” sounds like something from a fairy tale.It takes much less humanity to believe that people are evil then to believe that people are weak.I am more christian than you are and I have to keep myself from publically scoffing at religion.
You will probably ignore me as you did on the immigrant thread where I gave you a lesson in humanity as well. It is your choice….
Participant“No, nature is a very powerful force. Yes, some people are born evil.”
In your story,jg maybe the adopted kid was weak? Knowing that he was abandoned by his bioligigal parents was enough to drive him over the edge. How can you know that if the roles were swapped between the two infants that the other son would not have been the murderer. You can’t.How can you know for sure how that ideal adoptive family actually behaved? You can’t.Look how long we did not know so many boys were being molested by gay pedophile men of the cloth. Your story is a fairy tale. It is convenient to believe that people are evil especially if you are Catholic.I believe people are weak or strong on a continuem throughout humanity,that is in line with a real understanding of nature too.”Born Evil” sounds like something from a fairy tale.It takes much less humanity to believe that people are evil then to believe that people are weak.I am more christian than you are and I have to keep myself from publically scoffing at religion.
You will probably ignore me as you did on the immigrant thread where I gave you a lesson in humanity as well. It is your choice….
ParticipantThanks lostkitty,
I will investigate, so far I get easily distracted with other interesting pursuits. I am going to fit in small steps some how on some of these ideas of mine.Congratualtions on your family. We have three boys 4 and under!The oldest is very curious about religion(since we have been on this topic). He has reminded me of what a huge part of our society the various religions are. We have him in a bilingual preschool, which is located in a church, a few days a week. He is made more aware of God and Jesus from the hispanic teachers and aids.
ParticipantThanks lostkitty,
I will investigate, so far I get easily distracted with other interesting pursuits. I am going to fit in small steps some how on some of these ideas of mine.Congratualtions on your family. We have three boys 4 and under!The oldest is very curious about religion(since we have been on this topic). He has reminded me of what a huge part of our society the various religions are. We have him in a bilingual preschool, which is located in a church, a few days a week. He is made more aware of God and Jesus from the hispanic teachers and aids.
ParticipantDrunkle,
Re-read your last post You said in part:
“something seems screwed up about it anyway. like, the commoditization of ownership. but i can’t put my finger on it.”There is nothing principled about private land ownership.
The land got divided up some how,(I know some of the history but not enough to blab on about it) it got expensive,we want it , and we have what we have. Do the bankers/lenders have it rigged?I’m sure someone here would say yes and explain why & how. I hope that is pertinent to your comment.ParticipantDrunkle,
Re-read your last post You said in part:
“something seems screwed up about it anyway. like, the commoditization of ownership. but i can’t put my finger on it.”There is nothing principled about private land ownership.
The land got divided up some how,(I know some of the history but not enough to blab on about it) it got expensive,we want it , and we have what we have. Do the bankers/lenders have it rigged?I’m sure someone here would say yes and explain why & how. I hope that is pertinent to your comment.ParticipantBUGS
Excuse me for mis-paraphrasing you bugs. Obviously the big “chunk language” is mine.Since I have been on this blog you sure seemed like you were expecting more drama then you have spelled out in your last post.So here you are…Middle of the Road? I am scared to make my own interpretations.
Your words….
“Truth to tell, I doubt the correction will include a big chunk, although I think the pace of correction might move relatively quickly for a couple years, starting at beginning of the year.”I am flexible on the “big chunk” as posted already, it really doesn’t matter as a bearish outlook from me hurts no one… maybe? Now you say we will see status quo until the start of the next year?
Thanks as always for your input.ParticipantBUGS
Excuse me for mis-paraphrasing you bugs. Obviously the big “chunk language” is mine.Since I have been on this blog you sure seemed like you were expecting more drama then you have spelled out in your last post.So here you are…Middle of the Road? I am scared to make my own interpretations.
Your words….
“Truth to tell, I doubt the correction will include a big chunk, although I think the pace of correction might move relatively quickly for a couple years, starting at beginning of the year.”I am flexible on the “big chunk” as posted already, it really doesn’t matter as a bearish outlook from me hurts no one… maybe? Now you say we will see status quo until the start of the next year?
Thanks as always for your input.ParticipantOuch Perry!
That’s some “tough love.” Better that Relo have real figures to show her husband.575k vs 350k= 225k up front and roughly an additional 200k in interest for the life of the loans plus the opportunity lost to compound both ammounts over time in investments.
It’s only money.
Aren’t we both hypocrits though? Staying put in our primary residences? Even if they aren’t leveraged there are serious opportunity cost if we are right about forthcoming depreciation. You have pretty pricey tastes in houses. Are there not eventually opportunity costs in that?
ParticipantOuch Perry!
That’s some “tough love.” Better that Relo have real figures to show her husband.575k vs 350k= 225k up front and roughly an additional 200k in interest for the life of the loans plus the opportunity lost to compound both ammounts over time in investments.
It’s only money.
Aren’t we both hypocrits though? Staying put in our primary residences? Even if they aren’t leveraged there are serious opportunity cost if we are right about forthcoming depreciation. You have pretty pricey tastes in houses. Are there not eventually opportunity costs in that?
ParticipantTreasury Market and Mortgage Rates(link)
This is suppose to be a link to an informative page on the topic of the bond market and mortgage rates.
Edit: didn’t work ..”bond market and mortgage rates” is what I searched.
I’ll try again.
http://mortgage-x.com/general/treasury.asp -
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