[NotCranky]

The key is the wages and holding a job in that environment. That is the problem with HI scenario.

Thanks for your input JWM.

The risk is their but slightly offset by the fact that I create my own job since I would coordinate the lot split, do the drawing and contracting of any project. I even drive the heavy equiptment(rented).It’s not different here but I have some tricks up my sleeve too.The real issue is carrying costs and the end game which could of course occur during a deflationary shitstorm. Obviously I think it is worth considering.

If I had a little more cash going into it i would be all over it. Hipmatt?

[NotCranky]

“go buy a house then”

Shut up hipmatt!LOL

[NotCranky]

“Makes me wonder if NOW isn’t such a bad time to buy a house. If massive inflation really hits, a $500k loan at 6.5% might look like peanuts. Anybody got some old Jimmy Carter for Prez pins, that I can borrow?”

Could be. It’s a gamble though. I own my house but am really interested in a splittable lot that is very enticingly priced.But JWM says, no hyper- inflation! Now I ask my self…would you really get your advice from a blog?LOL…. a little inflation, cheap land and money to start and only a 40% drop in house prices. It will work ;).

[NotCranky]

“A single person could save 75k per year easily and a small family could save 50K or more. I can sympathize if there are alimony issues and issues like…”

Rustico are f*cking kidding me??? $75K a year???!!!! Can you do math or not man? That is $6,250 per month!!!

A single person could live on less than 25k a year with some motivation,Hundred of thousands are doing it in this county mostly by looking for a room to rent and buying second hand cars. I have three kids. I own my home free and clear but taxes, ins, ect come near to rent of a 3 bedroom condo in modest situation. We could live on 45K a year with passes to go to all the kid friendly places in SD that one can imagine.Yes my friend,I can do the math necessary to know that. I have been doing it for years . No we do not have public assistance(wouldn’t use it if we could)! We average more than 45k a year but can live on that.
SD R makes a point about 401k and I would say, take that out because the debate is buying a house when the entry point is right. I am assuming most of you guys are pretty young.My house is paid for because I did what you guys are trying to time and now I can save what would have been going to the mortgage and the mortgage is fixed permanently at $O. Not liking my priorities that is another thing. BTW I have averaged 800 a year toward car purchases and never, ever had a major repair. Yes, austerity would be a requirement,not so much at 230k a year.
Best wishes,

[NotCranky]

Thanks Coop,

The 5% comment got me looking at it as 1 in 224 for August alone, or roughly 12 per year from the same 224. I didn’t follow that the month was already adjusted to an annual rate. Actually, from a causual look, on the street looks a lot more serious than 1-224 per year.

[NotCranky]

“Maybe people would get it if they translated it to a yearly number. 5% of ALL homes will forclose this year in California.”

That is 1 in 20 houses this year. That can’t be right?

Edit: Perusing Craig’s list I got an idea for a new monitor. “The Second Hand Office Furniture Monitor.” There is a ton of it and many of the adds include indications that it is RE office related, naturally.

[NotCranky]

When I meet a single guy who is looking to do RE business I sometimes I ask him…are you going to go with the one with the biggest —- or shop around for other attributes. The responses are usually humorous and sometimes honest, if you get my drift. Why wouldn’t RE be a sometimes salacious business, ever see a beer commercial? Don’t think the women are never swayed by shopping with some interesting guy too.The frumpy and homely do mortgages!

[NotCranky]

“You can spout off about the weather all you want, but when people making 150k a year cannot afford a decent house or can’t afford to take vacations there is a problem”

I hear stuff like this on these blogs all the time. Why can’t a person making 150k a year afford a decent house? Presumably they didn’t start making that yesterday? So let’s say they have 5-10 years making that kind of money. A single person could save 75k per year easily and a small family could save 50K or more. I can sympathize if there are alimony issues and issues like that but otherwise, where does the money go? Yes, cry me a river. Yes I know houses in San Diego are too expensive but to say I won’t buy one is different than to say I can’t. And that affordabilty issue really only got way out of whack from 2004 and beyond…so up until then buying was even less demanding on income. Plenty of people and families making less than 100k a year bought houses in this century in San Diego and will be fine.

[NotCranky]

Moral of the story …just don’t date girls from Southern California. Let them wait for the knight in shining white beamer or is it beemer?….I remember being a real loser with one girl because I wouldn’t go sufi dancing. See ya! One good point of living in a big city ..you have choices.The car thing is a big excuse. Everybody knows it is a tatoo that will make you irresistable.

[NotCranky]

Probably a junior loan foreclosed and that lender is carrying the house.

[NotCranky]

I got a story but if I tell it it would be a dead giveaway should the guy read it. Suffice it to to say he doesn’t have a clue where we are at and he is leveraging himself to death to go for the brass ring. My guess is he ends up with several foreclosures. What is interesting is that in my eyes that would be a case of a Kharma working just fine.

Also I have seen a fairly nice custom home go short sale right after being finished.It sold quickly.That must be a terrible experience for the owner. Still lots of custom building going on in Jamul and the active to pending ratio is something like 105-5. I think we will see more issues with the custom homes and some humongous spec homes that are in the works.

[NotCranky]

She makes a point. Rich is a big boy he can take it into consideration or not( he probably already has). With these big Temecula and Eastlake/Otay Ranch houses falling hard it could contribute to the effect she is talking about. Conversely, sales of relatively small houses with better locations or improved ammenities could be holding the price per square foot up.Causation and correlation are tough to pin down. Maybe she can do it perfectly, deliver it sweetly, and then we will all know. That said Rich’s stuff and this blog are awesome.

I personally don’t see a need to get incredibly anal about this particular issue. Comps and same house sales cover this question well enough IMHO.

[NotCranky]

We are the armchair quarterbacks or the sd real estate market SDR. Who knows who is going to throw an TD or an interception until time passes? No darts friend, just “banter”. While we are on the football motif…Go Chargers! Go to Bakersfield or Fresno!

[NotCranky]

The way I see it Ray. If you don’t have the need or desire to get the 10%-20% discount and I come in and get it the day after you politely pay full price you are 10%-20% upside down and I politely smile at you when I see you.BTW comps don’t actually adjust directly to a low- ball.

You are correct to assume that if a federal case were made up it would be hard to prove a discount was actually obtained. I think I know when I,or my clients,get a break.

Sweat equity is a separate issue Imho,but again it would be hard to prove what percentage of equity came from the low-ball, improvements or the market.I say, why take chances? Since I value the deal more than the particular house I might as well go for as many factors on my side as I can get. As you say it takes a different skill set than most have (and a favorable market) to really garner sweat equity but anyone,with some patience, could go after a bigger than average reduction on the list price. Tt doesn’t make the discount less real just because only one in ten sellers is amenable to the idea, especially in a market like this.”Must buy” buyers could be looking for the seller who is ready to capitulate. Better than buying from the one that isn’t.

[NotCranky]

Thankfully most people here refer to 50% off jokingly or in reference to a fall they are hopeful of, peak to trough. A reduction off a list price 10%-20% is really the goal and that takes a lot of work and sacrifice. For those of us that are not in love with clocking in and clocking out somewhere to give the seller a 10-20% bonus that is pretty valuable.

“To me if the market is not where I can comfortably afford to buy I’ll simply wait it out or move elsewhere.”

If it came down to leaving or using BS tactics like offering 20% below list I’d give the BS tactics a try first.

It really is a matter of personalities. I know for instance that my inlaws are too polite to offer anything less than what the realtor says, which as you know, won’t usually be very assertive.

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