Looks likethe short squeeze is continuing this morning.

[Coronita]

Dow Industrial		13,824.99	+85.60
NASDAQ		2,673.08	+21.42
NASDAQ Computer		1,185.98	+6.21
High Tech 35		654.41	+2.45
S&P 500		1,532.90	+13.12

 

My individual stock portfolio today is at an all time high. My indexes still need to make up some lost ground before it reaches all time high (obviously).

 

[one_muggle]

Just curious. How great does your portfolio look if you index it to the Euro?
Seriously. My conservative portions are running with huge gains, and my aggressive international stocks are all anywhere from 40-400%. I am smart enough to know that this is not due to my considerable jeenius. When I index it to the Euro, the portfolio looks more sane and less like a pre-bust Nasdaq stock.
For my CDs, I refuse to check their value versus the Euro…

Makes me wonder if NOW isn’t such a bad time to buy a house. If massive inflation really hits, a $500k loan at 6.5% might look like peanuts. Anybody got some old Jimmy Carter for Prez pins, that I can borrow?

-one muggle

[NotCranky]

“Makes me wonder if NOW isn’t such a bad time to buy a house. If massive inflation really hits, a $500k loan at 6.5% might look like peanuts. Anybody got some old Jimmy Carter for Prez pins, that I can borrow?”

Could be. It’s a gamble though. I own my house but am really interested in a splittable lot that is very enticingly priced.But JWM says, no hyper- inflation! Now I ask my self…would you really get your advice from a blog?LOL…. a little inflation, cheap land and money to start and only a 40% drop in house prices. It will work ;).

[hipmatt]

go buy a house then

[one_muggle]

..would you really get your advice from a blog?

LOL! Just digital ruminations. I am on a neverending search for evidence that RE won’t crash, in an attempt to avoid group think bias.
Though, if one were to try this tact, I think some property in a non-bubble area would be a requirement. I sold off my last property in SoCal about 6months ago and I’ve no appetite for the stuff these days. IMHO, even the 20% off numbers being tossed about are a bit like the “60% off jewelry” offers at Christmas.

Personally, I am thinking of snapping up some CRE, if things continue tanking there–but likely not for a couple years. Otherwise, I might just stake out a corner for selling PDA styluses.

-one muggle

[NotCranky]

“go buy a house then”

Shut up hipmatt!LOL

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

“Just curious. How great does your portfolio look if you index it to the Euro?”

How do home prices look when you index them to the Euro ?

[JWM in SD]

“But JWM says, no hyper- inflation!”

The house becomes affordable but everything else doesn’t and gets worse unless it makes it into your wages. The key is the wages and holding a job in that environment. That is the problem with HI scenario. You have to look at all dimensions not just the asset price side.

[NotCranky]

The key is the wages and holding a job in that environment. That is the problem with HI scenario.

Thanks for your input JWM.

The risk is their but slightly offset by the fact that I create my own job since I would coordinate the lot split, do the drawing and contracting of any project. I even drive the heavy equiptment(rented).It’s not different here but I have some tricks up my sleeve too.The real issue is carrying costs and the end game which could of course occur during a deflationary shitstorm. Obviously I think it is worth considering.

If I had a little more cash going into it i would be all over it. Hipmatt?

[NotCranky]

The key is the wages and holding a job in that environment. That is the problem with HI scenario.

Thanks for your input JWM.

The risk is their but slightly offset by the fact that I create my own job since I would coordinate the lot split, do the drawing and contracting of any project. I even drive the heavy equiptment(rented).It’s not different here but I have some tricks up my sleeve too.The real issue is carrying costs and the end game which could of course occur during a deflationary shitstorm. Obviously I think it is worth considering.

If I had a little more cash going into it i would be all over it. Hipmatt?

[an]

“…would you really get your advice from a blog?”

I definitely take every blogger’s opinion w/ a bag of salt :-). Especially those with drastic views, either perma-bulls or perma-bears. But when a guy who predicted a lot of this problem, Peter Schiff, and Greenspan both predicted high inflation, I’d definitely listen. I think inflation will make HI salary look relatively cheap for foreign companies.

[Anonymous]

In general I trust the people on this forum and other blogs much more than anyone on TV or in the papers. Everyone in MSM has something to sell or has other vested interest. The MSM was at least a year late in covering the housing bust.

[NotCranky]

“…would you really get your advice from a blog?” I really did say that is jest. That has kind of got thrown out there from time to time. It is definately is not a slight on the blog or against the different strengths people bring here.This place is great.

Clearly, I am a novice on the deeper fiancial meanings and admit I probably will not get all of it. I don’t really need to, but on the other hand the timing is good to absorb what the grey matter will allow.

Cheers

[Coronita]

Just curious. How great does your portfolio look if you index it to the Euro?
Seriously. My conservative portions are running with huge gains, and my aggressive international stocks are all anywhere from 40-400%. I am smart enough to know that this is not due to my considerable jeenius. When I index it to the Euro, the portfolio looks more sane and less like a pre-bust Nasdaq stock.
For my CDs, I refuse to check their value versus the Euro…

Makes me wonder if NOW isn't such a bad time to buy a house. If massive inflation really hits, a $500k loan at 6.5% might look like peanuts. Anybody got some old Jimmy Carter for Prez pins, that I can borrow?

-one muggle

A good portion of my individual holdings are essentially tech adrs for european companies. Tech bubble+ european markets in general for me has been pretty decent versus the euro. Although I would say in hindsight, buying a euro ETF would have been a safer option. I only think if I were to do this now, it's too late.  Ironically, other holdings are domestic tech that have rallied over the past 2 years and are beating indexes. Also, there I do have a mixture of oil companies that unfortunately I sold a portion of two weeks ago. Oh well.

My vanguard indexes are trailing my personal portfolio at this point. I would ascertain this so far to luck. At the same time though, I was buying stock when the down was below 13,000 despite my better judgement. And As such, I've been selling here and there to take some money of the table, only to put it back on the table when/if the market tanks in the next couple weeks. It's really just speculative right now for me. And it's really more of a game than anything else.

 

Regarding…. 

 Makes me wonder if NOW isn't such a bad time to buy a house. If massive inflation really hits, a $500k loan at 6.5% might look like peanuts. Anybody got some old Jimmy Carter for Prez pins, that I can borrow?

You know. I have to say, a $3800/month mortgage for me really isn't that bad these days 🙂 Either my income is holding better than I thought (seriously doubt that), or I've just gotten use to it 🙁 One thing for sure, a  home in Shanghai, china will probably cost a hell of a lot more more than this home here in SD when and if the Yuan floats.

 

[temeculaguy]

Asianautica mentioned Schiff and Greenspan, these two are on opposite ends of the spectrum and Schiff actually hates Greenspan, so we can assume these two are from two camps but lately they have been making the same prediction, high inflation and interest rates in the near future. They actually cite the same rationale behind it, emerging economies like China and others parking their money here. Both feel those days are numbered and China’s costs and standard of living is rising, giving them less to invest here and more spent on consumption themselves, not to mention we look less like a sure thing.

So as a sideliner with cash, but not enough to sidestep needing a mortgage, what’s a boy to do. While I have a recession proof income I don’t have an inflation proof income. Timing R/E prices was an easy task of just monitoring inventory levels and affordability ratios but throw in the real threat of inflation and rising interest rates and this is going to get complicated. The current 30 yr fixed rates don’t jive with either camps prediction, they both see those numbers hitting double digits (greenspan sees an 8% 10 yr t-bill soon). Does waiting for another 10% decline in R/E become moot if mort rates will rise a few points or will the rise in rates further supress the R/E prices and will inflation cause rents to rise, I’m getting a headache. I just extended my lease six months until March 08 where I would re-evaluate despite having an opportunity to buy for the same net payment as rent, if rates rise significantly before then my plans may not work out. I just hope 30 yr rates hold for a few more quarters.

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