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noone
ParticipantI’m not sure why all the burnt offering references are aimed at pagans. Have you read Leviticus lately?
Participant“Inflation and interest rates are oddly not connected”
Ben Bernanke would disagree with you. One of the ways the Fed tries to cut inflation pressure is to increase interest rates. What they are actually changing is the interest rate that banks charge each other, but that usually (not always) has a ripple effect to consumer rates, including mortgage rates. The idea is that higher interest rates decrease the demand side of supply/demand, which should help keep inflation in check.
Participant“Inflation and interest rates are oddly not connected”
Ben Bernanke would disagree with you. One of the ways the Fed tries to cut inflation pressure is to increase interest rates. What they are actually changing is the interest rate that banks charge each other, but that usually (not always) has a ripple effect to consumer rates, including mortgage rates. The idea is that higher interest rates decrease the demand side of supply/demand, which should help keep inflation in check.
ParticipantThere’s a
similar article in today’s UT. Though their number of subprime loans entering foreclosure in the first quarter is 3.23% not 2.43%. They both claim the data comes from the Mortgage Bankers Association, so I wonder why the difference. Maybe UT is including NODs while WP is not?Anyway, the UT article includes this reference to those who are working things out with their lenders:
The national numbers benefited from a decrease in the defaults among loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration. The agency and the lenders it works with have been restructuring two out of every three loans in foreclosure, said Douglas Duncan, chief economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association. And it appears similar efforts to renegotiate mortgages to keep borrowers in their homes may also be holding down defaults overall.“We are seeing more loan modifications and foreclosures and once loans go through either of those processes the loans go out of those databases,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. But he cautioned “they might come back. The recidivism on those loans is very high.”
But I think Drunkle’s right. What can they be doing besides moving into 50 year mortgages with interest only for an extended period of time?
Besides, moon mining sounds like fun! It’s also a great way to lose weight, you instantly drop from 300 lbs down to 50! It’ll be harder to get to the Del Mar Fair, but once you do, you can eat all the deep fried twinkies you want!
ParticipantThere’s a
similar article in today’s UT. Though their number of subprime loans entering foreclosure in the first quarter is 3.23% not 2.43%. They both claim the data comes from the Mortgage Bankers Association, so I wonder why the difference. Maybe UT is including NODs while WP is not?Anyway, the UT article includes this reference to those who are working things out with their lenders:
The national numbers benefited from a decrease in the defaults among loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration. The agency and the lenders it works with have been restructuring two out of every three loans in foreclosure, said Douglas Duncan, chief economist with the Mortgage Bankers Association. And it appears similar efforts to renegotiate mortgages to keep borrowers in their homes may also be holding down defaults overall.“We are seeing more loan modifications and foreclosures and once loans go through either of those processes the loans go out of those databases,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. But he cautioned “they might come back. The recidivism on those loans is very high.”
But I think Drunkle’s right. What can they be doing besides moving into 50 year mortgages with interest only for an extended period of time?
Besides, moon mining sounds like fun! It’s also a great way to lose weight, you instantly drop from 300 lbs down to 50! It’ll be harder to get to the Del Mar Fair, but once you do, you can eat all the deep fried twinkies you want!
ParticipantI’m just sayin’
ParticipantI’m just sayin’
ParticipantI’m old enough to remember the early ’80s, when the grownups were all buying Kugerrands, and gold was going past $400 an ounce (possibly even $600?). Guess what? It went down from there and it has taken 20-25 years to get back. And since that was 1980 dollars vs. 2005 dollars, if you had bought gold then you’re still down.
ParticipantI’m old enough to remember the early ’80s, when the grownups were all buying Kugerrands, and gold was going past $400 an ounce (possibly even $600?). Guess what? It went down from there and it has taken 20-25 years to get back. And since that was 1980 dollars vs. 2005 dollars, if you had bought gold then you’re still down.
ParticipantIf you had bought later than ’98, even like ’01-’02, I would suggest selling. But you bought before the insanity hit, in fact pretty near the bottom, so you’re probably sitting on a great thing. If you are planning on returning to SoCal, keep it! In the next 3 years it’s value may go down, or it may go up. Most of us here think down, but no one really knows for sure. One thing that is pretty certain though is that it will behave just like most other properties in SoCal. So even if it does go down, so will everything else in the area.
If your plans were to live in another part of the country, sell it!
I wonder if you might not be able to lower your monthly obligations, thus improving your cash flow, by refinancing with a 15 year mortgage. It will probably depend on your current interest rate, and the costs associated with a new loan. What do others think of that idea?
ParticipantIf you had bought later than ’98, even like ’01-’02, I would suggest selling. But you bought before the insanity hit, in fact pretty near the bottom, so you’re probably sitting on a great thing. If you are planning on returning to SoCal, keep it! In the next 3 years it’s value may go down, or it may go up. Most of us here think down, but no one really knows for sure. One thing that is pretty certain though is that it will behave just like most other properties in SoCal. So even if it does go down, so will everything else in the area.
If your plans were to live in another part of the country, sell it!
I wonder if you might not be able to lower your monthly obligations, thus improving your cash flow, by refinancing with a 15 year mortgage. It will probably depend on your current interest rate, and the costs associated with a new loan. What do others think of that idea?
ParticipantWow! You really touched a nerve! 3 pages of responses in one day. I can’t even read them all. But I have to say, never take advice from someone then blame them when the advice turns out to be bad. Make your own decisions, and take responsibility for them.
The truth is that you have a lot of things right. There are a lot of posts that are absurd in “the sky is falling” arena. I take those with a grain of salt though. Or I assume that there is some sarcastic humor behind them.
“People all say wait a year or two to buy. I have heard this since 2000 and its 2007…”
No one is more surprised about the how long and how high the current rise has lasted than “intelligent” investors. However, you are right that no one has a crystal ball so everyone gets blindsided at some point. Keep in mind though, the argument that “it hasn’t happened yet” seldom lasts long.
“The bottom line is if you can afford the home, buy it, else move somewhere else or lower your expectations.”
This brings up the topic of affordability. Most, yes most, people who have bought homes in the past 5 years cannot truly afford them. Yes they can afford the minimum payments based on their ARM, interest-only, or neg-am loans, but once those loans reset, these folks generally have two options, re-finance or sell. For more and more of these home buyers, the refinancing option is no longer available. This leaves them in the must-sell category. Don’t you think that’s bound to bring prices down? I buy the idea that it’s just a slow process.
“Now I don’t own and can’t afford anything in this city anymore. I make a great income which still puts me into a shitty situation with San Diego real estate. I am not going to buy only because I can’t afford it.”
Ultimately this is the key. Doesn’t that tell you something? Only a very few (like 1%) can truly afford the homes that are selling in the decent neighborhoods. But that hasn’t stopped people from buying. I’m feeling the same way as you. I make a great salary, but I can’t truly afford even a $500K home much less a $750k home. Yeah sure, I can qualify for some ridiculous ARM loan, and make the first few years payments, but that’s not the same as truly being able to afford it. That is irresponsible, and I won’t do that to my family. We are doing just fine in our rented house.
How many other people do you think are in the same position? How many of those do you think pulled the trigger in the past 5 years assuming that they would be able to refinance and use their equity to make up the difference? How many of those do you think will instead end up in trouble in the next 3-5 years? My guess is quite a few, but yes that’s just a guess. The evidence is strong enough though to make me believe that these situations will cause prices to come down dramatically, even if it’s not quickly.
Most of what I read here, is not anger, but disgust. Disgust at people who say they are willing to take the risk, but blame everyone else when the deal goes bad.
May 10, 2007 at 12:10 PM in reply to: OT: Relationship advice, tips on how to get over an ex… #52325ParticipantI went through a similar thing about 15-20 years ago. I’ll tell you it wasn’t easy, and I had some pretty strong emotions for a year or more afterwards.
The things that hurt the most were going places or doing things that we used to do together. Thus the things that helped the most were the opposite. Pick up some new hobby or activity that you’ve always wanted to try. Especially those things that you wanted to try but you didn’t because your ex wasn’t interested.
It’s also a great time for self-improvement. I started eating better, riding my bike, rollerblading (hey it was more than 15 years ago :-)), and stuff like that. I ended up dropping about 20 pounds, and it was quite an ego booster to be turning women’s heads.
I also took a few classes at the local community college. You meet a new crowd of people, and learn some things while you’re at it.
One of the smartest things I think I did was not start any serious relationship for about 2 years.
ParticipantJust remember: the louder you yell, the more right you are!
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