Forum Replies Created
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New_Renter
Participanttrex,
Thanks for this great explanation, makes perfect sense. I better take a statistics refresher course! It also vividly points out the inherent flaws in using Median.It seems the Case-Shiller index for SD is about the best we have at this point in time to get a more accurate read on the true underlying price action. With Median per Sq. Ft. being 2nd best (as Rich has so well pointed out). Unfortunately Case-Shiller seems to be about 2 months behind the others. BTW, does anyone know where you can look at charts of the various Case-Shiller indexes online?
New_RenterParticipantgn,
If you re-read my post I never said you didn’t have a right to your opinion. Of course you do (as we all do), and I fully recognize that. I merely pointed out an option we all have. Sorry if I offended. I think you made some good points above, for what it’s worth.
Cheers,
New_RenterParticipantgn,
If you re-read my post I never said you didn’t have a right to your opinion. Of course you do (as we all do), and I fully recognize that. I merely pointed out an option we all have. Sorry if I offended. I think you made some good points above, for what it’s worth.
Cheers,
New_RenterParticipantno_such_reality & SD realtor,
Yes, this is a good theory. But let’s assume for a moment that it is true that a larger percentage of sales have shifted to North County Coastal and NC Inland. The micro-medians in those areas for SFR Detached was down -1.7% and
-4.0% respectively. Shouldn’t that contribute to a negative pull on the overall San Diego median also? Is DataQuick pulling the wool over our eyes?
New_RenterParticipantno_such_reality & SD realtor,
Yes, this is a good theory. But let’s assume for a moment that it is true that a larger percentage of sales have shifted to North County Coastal and NC Inland. The micro-medians in those areas for SFR Detached was down -1.7% and
-4.0% respectively. Shouldn’t that contribute to a negative pull on the overall San Diego median also? Is DataQuick pulling the wool over our eyes?
New_RenterParticipantI vote that sdrealtor formally “un-dedicate” the forum to Rustico so we can all move on… 🙂
ParticipantI vote that sdrealtor formally “un-dedicate” the forum to Rustico so we can all move on… 🙂
Participantgn,
First off, CV is clearly not the least expensive area in NCC. Developments such as Meadows Del Mar, Rancho Pacifica, The Preserve, and the Ridge Del Mar have assured that. All you had to do was look at:
http://realestate.signonsandiego.com/area_homesales/0407ncc.html
and you can see that in April it has the 2nd highest median of all the NCC areas, next to Del Mar.
While IMO CV is kind of plastic, there are a number of good reasons to live there if you have a family and it is within your budget (both true in my case): 1. Great schools, 2. convenience (if you work there like I do), 3. Ton’s of other kids for your kids to play with. Clearly there are some negatives with CV, afterall, sdrealtor must have his reasons to “hate it”.To Rustico,
All the starstruck CV hopefuls? Get a grip man.To Rustico & gn,
You can debate all you want about whether it is relevant or not. Clearly sdrealtor is open to suggestions, but in the end if you personally don’t think the data will be useful, you can choose not to read/post in this thread, or start you own forum that you think is more relevant. There’s nobody stopping you. I think it is interesting that CV is still realtively strong compared to many other areas in SD and agree with the assumption (excuse me, hypothesis) that when CV begins to break down this could be an indicator that the housing slump in San Diego is in full swing.Like sdcellar, I hope sdrealtor can ignore the negativity and continue to post these stats, with perhaps some improvements for clarity and completeness.
New_Renter
Participantgn,
First off, CV is clearly not the least expensive area in NCC. Developments such as Meadows Del Mar, Rancho Pacifica, The Preserve, and the Ridge Del Mar have assured that. All you had to do was look at:
http://realestate.signonsandiego.com/area_homesales/0407ncc.html
and you can see that in April it has the 2nd highest median of all the NCC areas, next to Del Mar.
While IMO CV is kind of plastic, there are a number of good reasons to live there if you have a family and it is within your budget (both true in my case): 1. Great schools, 2. convenience (if you work there like I do), 3. Ton’s of other kids for your kids to play with. Clearly there are some negatives with CV, afterall, sdrealtor must have his reasons to “hate it”.To Rustico,
All the starstruck CV hopefuls? Get a grip man.To Rustico & gn,
You can debate all you want about whether it is relevant or not. Clearly sdrealtor is open to suggestions, but in the end if you personally don’t think the data will be useful, you can choose not to read/post in this thread, or start you own forum that you think is more relevant. There’s nobody stopping you. I think it is interesting that CV is still realtively strong compared to many other areas in SD and agree with the assumption (excuse me, hypothesis) that when CV begins to break down this could be an indicator that the housing slump in San Diego is in full swing.Like sdcellar, I hope sdrealtor can ignore the negativity and continue to post these stats, with perhaps some improvements for clarity and completeness.
New_Renter
Participantsdrealtor,
Great job on the stats and glad you plan to update this weekly. Coupled with the Short Sales monitoring this is some really good data your providing. I don’t know if this is too much to ask, but it would be great each week to also see total CV SFR listings, rather than just the net change. I realize you did this for the period 5/8 to 5/14, but you didn’t for the prior week. Also, ideally the full set of stats would be broken-down into three categories: less than $1M, $1M-$2M, and $2M+. To me that would give some further useful insight. While your at it, how about Median Price per Sq. Ft.! 😉 Ha Ha, Just kidding, whatever you can provide on CV is great.
Keep up the good work.
New_Renter
Participantsdrealtor,
Great job on the stats and glad you plan to update this weekly. Coupled with the Short Sales monitoring this is some really good data your providing. I don’t know if this is too much to ask, but it would be great each week to also see total CV SFR listings, rather than just the net change. I realize you did this for the period 5/8 to 5/14, but you didn’t for the prior week. Also, ideally the full set of stats would be broken-down into three categories: less than $1M, $1M-$2M, and $2M+. To me that would give some further useful insight. While your at it, how about Median Price per Sq. Ft.! 😉 Ha Ha, Just kidding, whatever you can provide on CV is great.
Keep up the good work.
New_Renter
Participantsdrealtor,
Sorry that grouping you in with the general Realtor population offended you. I have been reading Piggington for quite some time, but this thread is the first that got me fired up enough to post. I have found your posts quite interesting and well-reasoned, and thank you for sharing the data you have as it is helpful. At the end of the day this is really all just opinion based on what data we have available, and our own individual experiences. I too have a masters, co-founded and sold a technology company, and have this (weird) fascination with RE. I’m targeting our next purchase around the $1.5M area, so I’m looking for today’s $2M property to get down to that area. I’m thinking that nominal declines of 30% in this bear market (for lack of a better term) will probably be pretty close to the mark. I just don’t think it will take 5-6 more years to get there. But nobody really knows, do they? Obviously, some people aren’t worried about it and are making a personal decision that’s right for them. For me renting makes a lot of sense right now, IMO, it is a good value and low-risk strategy vs. purchasing right now.Participantsdrealtor,
So to summarize, you are saying that prices are going to fall in CV for many years, but it will be an agonizingly slow process, right? This is one scenario that seems to be popular among the realtor crowd, as it is a scenario that is hard to argue, and one that will keep food on the table for the more savy realtors in the CV/DM area. It also sells well with clients giving them a comfort level that if they buy now, they’ll be just fine in the long run. If your scenario is right, though, why in the world would I buy now? Checking DataQuick’s March closings for CV SRF’s I see only 44 sales in 07′ vs. 57 in 06′. Doesn’t sound like much of a Spring rally to me considering that 06′ was horrible compared to 05′. I’m sure April/May are stronger than March though, as you indicate. The only area where I really disagree with you is I believe the Fall/Winter decline will be more significant, as the effects of mortgage morass is going to be kicking in earnest as ARM’s adjust upward.sdrealtor, I guess you could say I’m alot like your client that looked for 8 months in CV and moved on because of the risk. We’re newly renting in CV and now waiting to buy again. We know we want to buy in CV/DM area, but hope that by waiting we’ll get more for our money in the next couple years. I don’t consider CV/DM to be insulated from the rest. In my opinion it will suffer proportionally smaller overall declines than less desireable markets, but if the whole San Diego market is going down, CV/DM is going with it for sure, as has already proven been the case so far.
Participantsdrealtor,
5357 Carmel Knolls IS right in the heart of CV! Don’t think that you can just make everyone ignore it by putting the spotlight on the Pacific Highlands Ranch listing. Huntington Heights (where 5357 Carmel Knolls is) is right in the heart of CV, your basic Pardee development built in 1995 and right around the corner from Sonoma. A $200K loss is pretty significant, wouldn’t you say?
I’m also aware of two very painful short sales over the last few months in CV, one in Lexington and the other in Barratt’s Paso Fino up on Del Mar Ridge. Plus an ugly bank sale on Durango in Del Mar Heights.
This is just beginning to scratch the surface. Sure, there are still some sales happening in CV, but it is incredibly slow compared to what it was. CV is showing definite signs of increasing weakness. It will be interesting to watch what happens as we move later into the year.
New_Renter
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