DataQuick Stats – What am I missing?

[New_Renter]

trex,
Thanks for this great explanation, makes perfect sense. I better take a statistics refresher course! It also vividly points out the inherent flaws in using Median.

It seems the Case-Shiller index for SD is about the best we have at this point in time to get a more accurate read on the true underlying price action. With Median per Sq. Ft. being 2nd best (as Rich has so well pointed out). Unfortunately Case-Shiller seems to be about 2 months behind the others. BTW, does anyone know where you can look at charts of the various Case-Shiller indexes online?
New_Renter

[New_Renter]

trex,
Thanks for this great explanation, makes perfect sense. I better take a statistics refresher course! It also vividly points out the inherent flaws in using Median.

It seems the Case-Shiller index for SD is about the best we have at this point in time to get a more accurate read on the true underlying price action. With Median per Sq. Ft. being 2nd best (as Rich has so well pointed out). Unfortunately Case-Shiller seems to be about 2 months behind the others. BTW, does anyone know where you can look at charts of the various Case-Shiller indexes online?
New_Renter

[SD Realtor]

thanks for showing the math trex.

Also guys remember… data can be shaped in SO many ways. Was the dataquick information only detached resale or did it include new housing?

Again, I know it is hard to turn a blind eye to the media but try not to let it get to ya. The overall problem is that by far the less informed majority of consumers do not realize this. So what can you do? Keep a cool head. The bigger question is, what is reality then? How do we gauge things. Everyone has different answers. My personal answer is the sales volume, active/pending ratios, cancelled/expireds verses solds… that sort of thing. Keep it simple, keep in confined to the zip code you are in, etc…

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

thanks for showing the math trex.

Also guys remember… data can be shaped in SO many ways. Was the dataquick information only detached resale or did it include new housing?

Again, I know it is hard to turn a blind eye to the media but try not to let it get to ya. The overall problem is that by far the less informed majority of consumers do not realize this. So what can you do? Keep a cool head. The bigger question is, what is reality then? How do we gauge things. Everyone has different answers. My personal answer is the sales volume, active/pending ratios, cancelled/expireds verses solds… that sort of thing. Keep it simple, keep in confined to the zip code you are in, etc…

SD Realtor

[North County Jim]

How it possible that the overall median price for resale homes is up 1.7% ($565K vs. $555.5K) when every single constituent area is down significantly:

It’s not possible. The problem is the UT’s table is screwed up. Note the zone-specific 2006 vs. 2007 medians and then the listed percentage. They’re completely messed up.

Central San Diego resale SFR’s are listed as -5.8% yoy. It should be +5.8%.

East county is listed as a 9.6% drop when it’s actually a 0.96% drop.

And so on…

Whether online or in print, you’d think somebody might review this before it gets published.

[North County Jim]

How it possible that the overall median price for resale homes is up 1.7% ($565K vs. $555.5K) when every single constituent area is down significantly:

It’s not possible. The problem is the UT’s table is screwed up. Note the zone-specific 2006 vs. 2007 medians and then the listed percentage. They’re completely messed up.

Central San Diego resale SFR’s are listed as -5.8% yoy. It should be +5.8%.

East county is listed as a 9.6% drop when it’s actually a 0.96% drop.

And so on…

Whether online or in print, you’d think somebody might review this before it gets published.

[North County Jim]

A closer look shows a sloppy cut and paste job. The percentages given for resale condos are actually the numbers for resale SFR’s.

Amateur hour.

[North County Jim]

A closer look shows a sloppy cut and paste job. The percentages given for resale condos are actually the numbers for resale SFR’s.

Amateur hour.

[little lady]

“How it possible that the overall median price for resale homes is up 1.7% ($565K vs. $555.5K) when every single constituent area is down significantly”:

I don’t know if this is why, but I read recently that the median went up because less people are able to buy starter homes. I thought it was strange too, especially since house prices(asking prices) in my area are falling. Before January ’07, there was nothing on the market below 400k, now there are 15 and climbing. Two are actually asking 299k for sfr……….ttfn

[little lady]

“How it possible that the overall median price for resale homes is up 1.7% ($565K vs. $555.5K) when every single constituent area is down significantly”:

I don’t know if this is why, but I read recently that the median went up because less people are able to buy starter homes. I thought it was strange too, especially since house prices(asking prices) in my area are falling. Before January ’07, there was nothing on the market below 400k, now there are 15 and climbing. Two are actually asking 299k for sfr……….ttfn

[greekfire]

This is yet ANOTHER REASON why we need to have a single, objective, and open-to-the-public real estate database. Our current system is like trying to construct the Tower of Babel.

[greekfire]

This is yet ANOTHER REASON why we need to have a single, objective, and open-to-the-public real estate database. Our current system is like trying to construct the Tower of Babel.

[an]

The internet revolution can’t get to the RE fast enough. I hope, one day, all of these info will be public and you can easily do a search using your favorite search engine to get all the data you want and construct your own analysis using a spreadsheet app.

There’s really no statistic that will be able to tell you where the bottom is. You won’t even know where the bottom is until you past it. People who like to call bottom will call bottom all the way down. Just like people who like to call top called top all the way up. I’d say, don’t worry about the bottom and just buy a house when it make sense relative to income and rent. The rest will fall into place.

[an]

The internet revolution can’t get to the RE fast enough. I hope, one day, all of these info will be public and you can easily do a search using your favorite search engine to get all the data you want and construct your own analysis using a spreadsheet app.

There’s really no statistic that will be able to tell you where the bottom is. You won’t even know where the bottom is until you past it. People who like to call bottom will call bottom all the way down. Just like people who like to call top called top all the way up. I’d say, don’t worry about the bottom and just buy a house when it make sense relative to income and rent. The rest will fall into place.

[New_Renter]

Oh Jeez, great catch Jim! What a joke. This data is pretty important right now, so you’d think at least DataQuick would have caught the mistake, it’s their numbers after all…

Alex’s example still shows us how it could happen that the overall median could rise, while the constituents could fall, but when you think about it, for that to happen there would have to be a MASSIVE shift in the mix. This tells me that the shift in the mix, while no doubt is happening, is more subtle (i.e. slower moving). The fact that North County Coastal median was up 4.5% and volume constant, while South County median was down -4.7% and volume WAY down (174 vs. 262) is really where the change in mix is showing up in the data.

[Author]

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