[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

Agree on all points. I wouldn’t touch it at $1.5M and I’m really surprised there are so much interests.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

I don’t think we disagree much, but I do like to clarify a couple of things.

My flat price comment was in the context to show that a 14 year appreciation of 100% is not totally unreasonable when taking inflation into account. I actually stated twice that I expected CV prices to decline.

I also didn’t say the decline would be small, but *relatively* small. If San Diego county has declined 15% so far into the cycle and CV only declined less than 10%, then that is relatively small.

I have no idea how much CV prices will fall. The 20% was just a guess. The CV is a upper-middle class community (annual gross income at least 200K). People with that kindof income can support a million dollar house after 20% down, given the current interest rates. More importantly there seems to be more people that fit this profile than the houses available even in today’s market. Want proof? Just look at the interests on this 1.5 million REO house. As soon as people smell a deal, they jump on it. If this is happening a few years back when the market was still hot, I wouldn’t be surprised, but everybody in their right mind should know by now that there is a real estate bubble going on and prices have dropped. So you’ve got to ask yourself what is really motivating these people to buy today and perhaps adjust your expectations accordingly. Also ask yourself now that real estate has turned bearish, are people buying a house to flip or are they buying a place to live.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

I don’t think we disagree much, but I do like to clarify a couple of things.

My flat price comment was in the context to show that a 14 year appreciation of 100% is not totally unreasonable when taking inflation into account. I actually stated twice that I expected CV prices to decline.

I also didn’t say the decline would be small, but *relatively* small. If San Diego county has declined 15% so far into the cycle and CV only declined less than 10%, then that is relatively small.

I have no idea how much CV prices will fall. The 20% was just a guess. The CV is a upper-middle class community (annual gross income at least 200K). People with that kindof income can support a million dollar house after 20% down, given the current interest rates. More importantly there seems to be more people that fit this profile than the houses available even in today’s market. Want proof? Just look at the interests on this 1.5 million REO house. As soon as people smell a deal, they jump on it. If this is happening a few years back when the market was still hot, I wouldn’t be surprised, but everybody in their right mind should know by now that there is a real estate bubble going on and prices have dropped. So you’ve got to ask yourself what is really motivating these people to buy today and perhaps adjust your expectations accordingly. Also ask yourself now that real estate has turned bearish, are people buying a house to flip or are they buying a place to live.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

I don’t think we disagree much, but I do like to clarify a couple of things.

My flat price comment was in the context to show that a 14 year appreciation of 100% is not totally unreasonable when taking inflation into account. I actually stated twice that I expected CV prices to decline.

I also didn’t say the decline would be small, but *relatively* small. If San Diego county has declined 15% so far into the cycle and CV only declined less than 10%, then that is relatively small.

I have no idea how much CV prices will fall. The 20% was just a guess. The CV is a upper-middle class community (annual gross income at least 200K). People with that kindof income can support a million dollar house after 20% down, given the current interest rates. More importantly there seems to be more people that fit this profile than the houses available even in today’s market. Want proof? Just look at the interests on this 1.5 million REO house. As soon as people smell a deal, they jump on it. If this is happening a few years back when the market was still hot, I wouldn’t be surprised, but everybody in their right mind should know by now that there is a real estate bubble going on and prices have dropped. So you’ve got to ask yourself what is really motivating these people to buy today and perhaps adjust your expectations accordingly. Also ask yourself now that real estate has turned bearish, are people buying a house to flip or are they buying a place to live.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

I don’t think we disagree much, but I do like to clarify a couple of things.

My flat price comment was in the context to show that a 14 year appreciation of 100% is not totally unreasonable when taking inflation into account. I actually stated twice that I expected CV prices to decline.

I also didn’t say the decline would be small, but *relatively* small. If San Diego county has declined 15% so far into the cycle and CV only declined less than 10%, then that is relatively small.

I have no idea how much CV prices will fall. The 20% was just a guess. The CV is a upper-middle class community (annual gross income at least 200K). People with that kindof income can support a million dollar house after 20% down, given the current interest rates. More importantly there seems to be more people that fit this profile than the houses available even in today’s market. Want proof? Just look at the interests on this 1.5 million REO house. As soon as people smell a deal, they jump on it. If this is happening a few years back when the market was still hot, I wouldn’t be surprised, but everybody in their right mind should know by now that there is a real estate bubble going on and prices have dropped. So you’ve got to ask yourself what is really motivating these people to buy today and perhaps adjust your expectations accordingly. Also ask yourself now that real estate has turned bearish, are people buying a house to flip or are they buying a place to live.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

New_Renter,

I don’t think we disagree much, but I do like to clarify a couple of things.

My flat price comment was in the context to show that a 14 year appreciation of 100% is not totally unreasonable when taking inflation into account. I actually stated twice that I expected CV prices to decline.

I also didn’t say the decline would be small, but *relatively* small. If San Diego county has declined 15% so far into the cycle and CV only declined less than 10%, then that is relatively small.

I have no idea how much CV prices will fall. The 20% was just a guess. The CV is a upper-middle class community (annual gross income at least 200K). People with that kindof income can support a million dollar house after 20% down, given the current interest rates. More importantly there seems to be more people that fit this profile than the houses available even in today’s market. Want proof? Just look at the interests on this 1.5 million REO house. As soon as people smell a deal, they jump on it. If this is happening a few years back when the market was still hot, I wouldn’t be surprised, but everybody in their right mind should know by now that there is a real estate bubble going on and prices have dropped. So you’ve got to ask yourself what is really motivating these people to buy today and perhaps adjust your expectations accordingly. Also ask yourself now that real estate has turned bearish, are people buying a house to flip or are they buying a place to live.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

Wow, I survived the night without being called a troll or a real estate agent (no offense to you, SDR). 🙂 Not that I would mind being called one. After all, this site is titled “Southern California Housing Bubble News and Analysis”. What else can you expect?

By the way, I appreciate all the comments so far. I guess I’ve finally found the right crowd to hang with.

DWCAP, I’m not sure we disagree much on CV. I did say that I believe CV prices will experience a relatively small decline towards the end of the cycle. If I have to guess, I would say it will be about 20% on average, not insignificant for million dollar homes.

raptorduck, your description on your home buying process is the best advise for a couple that I’ve ever read. It is no easy feat to strike that kind of balance though.

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

You want to start a bidding war now, masayako? 🙂 Barring any kind of disasters, natural or manmade, I doubt price will ever drop to that low. That kindof percentage decline is unlikely to happen in CV imho. Tract homes or not, I think CV has established itself as one of the best areas in San Diego over the years mainly due to its location and schools.

With that said, I do think prices in CV will eventually decline. However, the decline will be relatively small and perhaps with most of the decline happening towards the end of the cycle. So the real decision for people waiting to buy CV is: is this worth the wait?

Also keep in mind that price may not decline much in nominal terms due to inflation. Most people on this board think home prices in 1998 are reasonable. Prices in CV have probably doubled since then. If you also happen to believe 2012 will be the bottom and assuming prices stay flat until that time, then prices have only doubled in 14 years, which comes to an annualized appreciation of just under 5.1%, quite reasonable given the current inflation numbers, don’t you think?

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

You want to start a bidding war now, masayako? 🙂 Barring any kind of disasters, natural or manmade, I doubt price will ever drop to that low. That kindof percentage decline is unlikely to happen in CV imho. Tract homes or not, I think CV has established itself as one of the best areas in San Diego over the years mainly due to its location and schools.

With that said, I do think prices in CV will eventually decline. However, the decline will be relatively small and perhaps with most of the decline happening towards the end of the cycle. So the real decision for people waiting to buy CV is: is this worth the wait?

Also keep in mind that price may not decline much in nominal terms due to inflation. Most people on this board think home prices in 1998 are reasonable. Prices in CV have probably doubled since then. If you also happen to believe 2012 will be the bottom and assuming prices stay flat until that time, then prices have only doubled in 14 years, which comes to an annualized appreciation of just under 5.1%, quite reasonable given the current inflation numbers, don’t you think?

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

You want to start a bidding war now, masayako? 🙂 Barring any kind of disasters, natural or manmade, I doubt price will ever drop to that low. That kindof percentage decline is unlikely to happen in CV imho. Tract homes or not, I think CV has established itself as one of the best areas in San Diego over the years mainly due to its location and schools.

With that said, I do think prices in CV will eventually decline. However, the decline will be relatively small and perhaps with most of the decline happening towards the end of the cycle. So the real decision for people waiting to buy CV is: is this worth the wait?

Also keep in mind that price may not decline much in nominal terms due to inflation. Most people on this board think home prices in 1998 are reasonable. Prices in CV have probably doubled since then. If you also happen to believe 2012 will be the bottom and assuming prices stay flat until that time, then prices have only doubled in 14 years, which comes to an annualized appreciation of just under 5.1%, quite reasonable given the current inflation numbers, don’t you think?

Mr. Wrong

[mrwrong]

I won’t look at it until it returns to price below $750s range.

You want to start a bidding war now, masayako? 🙂 Barring any kind of disasters, natural or manmade, I doubt price will ever drop to that low. That kindof percentage decline is unlikely to happen in CV imho. Tract homes or not, I think CV has established itself as one of the best areas in San Diego over the years mainly due to its location and schools.

With that said, I do think prices in CV will eventually decline. However, the decline will be relatively small and perhaps with most of the decline happening towards the end of the cycle. So the real decision for people waiting to buy CV is: is this worth the wait?

Also keep in mind that price may not decline much in nominal terms due to inflation. Most people on this board think home prices in 1998 are reasonable. Prices in CV have probably doubled since then. If you also happen to believe 2012 will be the bottom and assuming prices stay flat until that time, then prices have only doubled in 14 years, which comes to an annualized appreciation of just under 5.1%, quite reasonable given the current inflation numbers, don’t you think?

Mr. Wrong

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