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ltsddd
Participant[quote=SD Realtor]
Those who are actually out there looking for homes tend to be frustrated by lack of inventory or homes that are well overpriced (usually both). Those who like to sit in front of computers digging up redfin data love to bring up statistics and debate about time on market or how the sold price is a certain percentage below the list price. (Never mind that the list price was incorrect to begin with)
[/quote]I don’t know how many homes you helped sold or bought in MM for the last 2+ years. But I hope that the fact that I closed on 3 during that time span “bought” me some “capital” to debate on this topic. Nevertheless, your last statement in parenthesis is another way of saying that buyers shouldn’t be paying list price?
[quote=SD Realtor]
You can say Mira Mesa is not on fire but I would disagree. I think most of the I15 corridor is a pretty tough buy right now. Homes sitting on the market are only there because they are poorly priced. Just because they don’t sell doesn’t mean the market is not very difficult for buyers right now.[/quote]I don’t have a problem with someone saying MM is tough for buyers right now. However, to correlate low inventory (tough for buyers) to a market being on fire is absurd to say the least.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Every house I selling in MM has multiple offers on it. Those are bidding wars and they are everywhere.
[/quote]If that’s how you define bidding wars then when was the housing market ever not on fire?
[quote=sdrealtor]You are looking backward whereas I see the present and whats ahead. It aint pretty if you are a buyer.
[/quote]You are the OP of this thread. You’re the one who said MM is on fire based on the closed sales of SFRs in MM for the last 30 days.
[quote=sdrealtor]
I just stopped by Sorrento Heights. They released 13 homes that are probably the worst locations they have and sold 7 already. Most of the early buyers defer waiting for better locations. They will all be gone in a week or two. Those are houses with MR (the only ones in that area that have them) and HOA (most dont have them and certainly not this high) priced well over $100K above existing home resales.
[/quote]Not a particular sub-market I am interested in.
[quote=sdrealtor]
The market has already turned and you will pay more the longer you wait. Not alot more quickly but more than you could have paid. You will face tougher competition and the quality of the inventory isnt as good. Anything good (like Winans Cove) got 10+ offers in a weekend and went all cash, above ask with no contingencies. You cant compete with that.
[/quote]Maybe it is or maybe it isn’t. Ask yourself this question, with such low inventories shouldn’t these “bidding wars” be driving the prices up through the roof? That’s not what I am seeing. Maybe a year from now we’ll look back and say that yes the market is indeed turned around in MM during the 1st quarter of 2012. Until then I am not convinced. I’ve been following this market closely for 2+ years and I can tell you this, it’s been nothing but a consistent downtrend – at least for the particular sub-market that I was after (4/2 and below $350K). The only difference now (the last few months) is that the inventory has gone down to virtually zero, but that low inventory has not been reflected in the price increase. The ironic thing is that I am done with the home buying in MM and I really want to believe that that the housing market in MM has turned around. But let’s not misconstrue a bouncing off at the bottom as the market being on fire. If anything MM has been on a fire-sale.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Well the market is sizzling hot in MM these days. On a thread a while back AN and I were trying to explain how hot it has become. Another poster questioned this saying houses rarely sold at or above asking prices. I tired to explain that the data was always a few months old and that what was going on would soon be clear. Well here are. There is virtually nothing on the market there and homes are selling quickly with piles of offers but here is the real proof.
Here are the 40 closed SFR sales in the last 30 days for MM.
Asking price (or within $5K)- 14
Below asking price by $5K or more – 11
Above asking price – 1575% closing at or above asking price with above being the most prevalent.[/quote]
Maybe you have special access to some tools that I don’t have. But here’s what I could find on Redfin. The first one is set to limit the search within my targeted sub-market and the second I relaxed all constraints except for the SFR.
LP OLP SALE DATE PRICE % changed
364900 364900 05/17/12 365000 .0003
368900 389000 05/11/12 353000 -.0925
349000 349000 05/15/12 319000 -.0860
340876 340876 05/22/12 315000 -.0759
375000 399000 05/17/12 365000 -.0852
365000 365000 05/24/12 345000 -.0548
325000 325000 05/31/12 315000 -.0308
350000 350000 05/31/12 329000 -.0600
285000 314900 05/10/12 285000 -.0950
250000 250000 06/01/12 277000 .1080
275000 275000 05/25/12 275000 .0000
208880 224800 05/11/12 208880 -.0708
299000 350000 05/22/12 325000 -.0714
375000 375000 05/24/12 365000 -.0267
282900 282900 05/23/12 280000 -.0103
334888 315888 05/31/12 265000 -.1611Sold Below OLP: 13 out of 16 (81.25%)
Sold Above OLP: 2 out of 16 (12.5%) – one of them for a whopping $100.
Sold At OLP: 1 out of 16 (6.25%)LP OLP SALE DATE PRICE % changed
360700 360700 05/24/12 295000 -.1821
530000 530000 05/25/12 520000 -.0189
365000 380000 05/22/12 372500 -.0197
364900 364900 05/17/12 365000 .0003
368900 389000 05/11/12 353000 -.0925
349000 349000 05/15/12 319000 -.0860
340876 340876 05/22/12 315000 -.0759
375000 399000 05/17/12 365000 -.0852
365000 365000 05/24/12 345000 -.0548
325000 325000 05/31/12 315000 -.0308
350000 350000 05/31/12 329000 -.0600
285000 314900 05/10/12 285000 -.0950
429000 429000 05/15/12 392000 -.0862
348800 348800 05/14/12 360000 .0321
345900 345900 05/25/12 353000 .0205
529000 519000 05/24/12 525000 .0116
399900 399900 05/25/12 404000 .0103
350000 350000 06/01/12 340000 -.0286
250000 250000 06/01/12 277000 .1080
240000 240000 05/25/12 252000 .0500
275000 275000 05/25/12 275000 .0000
208880 224800 05/11/12 208880 -.0708
409900 409900 05/31/12 405000 -.0120
429900 429900 05/11/12 445000 .0351
489900 489900 05/16/12 480000 -.0202
316800 318800 05/11/12 320000 .0038
349900 359900 05/14/12 352000 -.0220
275000 250000 05/11/12 254000 .0160
299000 350000 05/22/12 325000 -.0714
375000 375000 05/24/12 365000 -.0267
282900 282900 05/23/12 280000 -.0103
334888 315888 05/31/12 265000 -.1611
520000 520000 05/08/12 510000 -.0192
529000 549000 05/14/12 520000 -.0528
499900 499900 05/22/12 530000 .0602
280500 280500 05/18/12 289500 .0321
447000 447000 05/29/12 435000 -.0268# Sold below OLP: 24/37 (64.86%)
# Sold above OLP: 12/37 (32.43%)
# Sold at OLP: 1/37 (2.7%)It hardly supports your claim of of MM being on fire – at least it doesn’t fit my definition of a housing market being on fire. For the last few weeks I actually thought prices in MM starting to move up until I saw what came out this week. I wouldn’t say a 4/2 or 3/2 listed for $329K in MM would define a market that is on fire. Considering how low the supply is you would think there would be a bidding war, but you’re not seeing that do you? The fact that the majority of the people are still able to buy below asking with a low supply should say a lot about market conditions.
I’ll let the data speaks for itself and the folks on this forum to decide for themselves whether or not “MM is on fire”.
Participant[quote=CDMA ENG][quote=flu][quote=CA renter]We also have a loquat tree in our backyard, and had no idea what they were at first! 🙂 Ours had at least a hundred (probably many hundreds) this year. It’s a beautiful tree.
How do you eat them? With the peel, or without? The peel can be pretty bitter, but the kids have been eating directly from the tree with the peel. I prefer peeling them first which makes them taste very sweet…even better than apricots (which I love)!
Any interesting ideas or recipies using loquats? Tips and tricks for preparing and eating them? I’ve heard you can make a loquat marmalade, but that’s a bit too over my head.[/quote]
peel them. Don’t eat the peel. Nasty… Don’t eat the seed (obviously). If you get tired of peeling, you probably can make juice out of them if you wash and crush them…They also make decent fruit for making jams/jelly if you’re into that.
http://thefoodblog.com.au/2009/10/loquat-jelly-recipe.html
But make sure it’s not too large of a jelly jar. otherwise bloomberg might ban it… :([/quote]
If you can find a good home made vanilla icecream recipe then you can chop of the loquat and throw it in and have delicious loquat icecream… I have been planning to do the same with Jackfruit for sometime.[/quote]
The natural next step up from Jackfruit would be Durian. YUM 🙂
June 1, 2012 at 5:40 PM in reply to: My next door neighbor was a cop, still under 60, been retired for more than 5 yrs #744807Participant[quote=AN][quote=ltsdd]
No, your fixed income bucket should not be the largest bucket. But then again, there is no such thing as a one-size-fits-all solution. [/quote]Exactly. For me, it would be. Since I know I’ll be extremely risk adverse when I’m in retirement. I won’t retire until I can be extremely risk adverse with my investment.[quote=ltsdd]Yes, I ignored it because I am not sure what you’re trying to show here. With $2.4M at retirement and you chose to w/d $100K/year? Why $100K? How long do you plan to have your nest egg last?
How much you should w/d a year should not only be determined by how much you have but also how long you plan to live off of that nest egg. If you’re worrying about depleting the nest egg too quickly then reduce your withdrawal or increase your nest egg. As for me, if I want that $2.4M to last 30 years then I would withdraw no more than $80K on my first year. During the subsequent years, how much I can take out will determined by how well my portfolio is doing. The withdrawal RATE is constant not the withdrawal AMOUNT. It’s called fluctuations.[/quote]
I pick $100k because the original debate is about comparing pension with $100k/year + COLA vs 401k. So I’m trying to remove as much variable as possible.[/quote]If you’re that risk adverse and if you had $2.4M at the time you’re retired and want a guaranteed fixed amount of income for the next 30 years then it’s easier to buy an annuity. The problem is that these things are not adjusted for inflation, but I don’t think you’re concerned with that. I personally wouldn’t do it, but it may be a perfect vehicle for you. You can go here and play with the numbers:
http://www.bankrate.com/calculators/investing/annuity-calculator.aspx
Assuming a 1% annual growth rate and a withdrawal of $100K a year, your money will last about 27 years. If you bump the growth rate to 2% then you can expect to get a stream of income for 32 years. Now take that to 4% and you’ll probably croak before the money runs out (in about 65 years).
June 1, 2012 at 3:12 PM in reply to: How are people dumber than us going to make out with their 401(k)s? #744794Participant[quote=no_such_reality]
It’s good rule of thumb, never by a rental you would be unwilling to live in or in an area you wouldn’t want to live in.[/quote]+1.
I wouldn’t buy a rental in an area that I wouldn’t want to take the family out for a nightly walk.
June 1, 2012 at 3:03 PM in reply to: How are people dumber than us going to make out with their 401(k)s? #744792Participant[quote=bearishgurl]
Most all of these properties need more work than lenders will approve (esp for the FHA 203b program). The work isn’t that expensive if you can do most of it yourself (no structural problems) and have ways of getting some work done cheaper. These owners aren’t likely to get multiple offers above what someone off the street would privately offer them considering they would be saving the sales commission. As a principal or co-buyer, I would obviously have to disclose to them that I am a licensee in my or “our” offer to purchase.These properties are DEFINITELY not ready to compete with the vast majority of listed properties on the MLS today and their owners won’t undergo any cleanup/rehab. A few of them have the owners stuff stored in them.
There are a LOT of houses all over SD County that may have a “porch swing” in front and furniture inside. This is no way means anyone lives there … or has even lived there in the last decade. If the owner bought it for $5K to $32K, it has been paid off for decades and its property taxes are $368 year, WHO CARES? Just store your stuff and turn off the utilities. Get your grandson out there in the front yard once a month with the weedwacker (to appease city/county officials). You have a nearly “free” indefinite storage unit. DONE :=D.[/quote]
So how are these houses compared to the ones being sold by the so-called “scumbag SS”? How much rehab and how long do you think it’s going to take FOR YOU to get the house ready to rent it out? I hope it doesn’t take “a truck” and nowhere near “a year-plus” to get the place ready. I hope you do own a truck and a lot more handy than me because it took me a whopping two weekends and another $400 for a contractor to finish the garage and have got tenants moved in in less than 3 weeks. Oh, and here’s the kicker, I don’t own a effing truck. Damn, those SS!
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Hope you got good sleeping pills, Just kidding sort of,
Yea I was tempted to hold to see if a bounce happen on Monday.
BTW, ever hear the saying,
Stocks never hit a low on a Friday ….
Also bad sign this occurring at the first 3 trading days of the month IMO.Anyway good luck..[/quote]
The market has been choppy and I have been doing quite well with some “hit-and-run” trades. The market run-up from late last year up until April or so made it pretty easy to decide to be defensive and respect the “sell in May and go away” adage. I have to say this though, once you’re out of the market it’s hard to get back in unless you see days like today.
Participant[quote=flu][quote=SD Realtor]Sell in May go away…[/quote]
Which year do we return?[/quote]
2012 – b/c I just moved 15% of my $ back into the equity market today. I’ll sleep well knowing that I just bought the stuff for a 2+% discount compared to yesterday’s prices. It’ll be a different story if the market tanks again on Monday. Otherwise, I will be out again with a DCB. I am not greedy, I will take a 2 or 3% gain here and there anytime I can.
June 1, 2012 at 1:07 PM in reply to: My next door neighbor was a cop, still under 60, been retired for more than 5 yrs #744779Participant[quote=AN]
Now, since you’re using the bucket of money strategy, then I’d have to take in a much lower assumption of average return. Since I’d be in retirement, my fixed income bucket will be the largest bucket. Looking at CD rate today, I’d be lucky to get 2%. Stocks is negative YTD and negative for 2011.
[/quote]No, your fixed income bucket should not be the largest bucket. But then again, there is no such thing as a one-size-fits-all solution.
[quote=AN]
Are you ignoring the example I gave of a retiree in 2000 with $2.4M? If you use the bucket strategy, you’d be much better off than putting 100% into S&P and DOW, but your total nest egg is still greatly depleted.
[/quote]Yes, I ignored it because I am not sure what you’re trying to show here. With $2.4M at retirement and you chose to w/d $100K/year? Why $100K? How long do you plan to have your nest egg last?
How much you should w/d a year should not only be determined by how much you have but also how long you plan to live off of that nest egg. If you’re worrying about depleting the nest egg too quickly then reduce your withdrawal or increase your nest egg. As for me, if I want that $2.4M to last 30 years then I would withdraw no more than $80K on my first year. During the subsequent years, how much I can take out will determined by how well my portfolio is doing. The withdrawal RATE is constant not the withdrawal AMOUNT. It’s called fluctuations.
Participant[quote=ocrenter]A lot of it is interest rate driven too. Jumbo now down to 4.125 with zero point. I’ve seen an institution still using the old 625k limit, at interest rate of 3.75.
Mortgage on a 30% down, million dollar 2700 would only be $3300.[/quote]
I agree. If you have the $$ and/or can qualify for a mortgage, it’s hard to resist not to buy. Be it be your primary or rental.
June 1, 2012 at 7:28 AM in reply to: How are people dumber than us going to make out with their 401(k)s? #744723Participant[quote=flu]
Also, I’m not so sure tax rates for a deferred investment are going to be a good thing…As I said before, I think some people’s folks tax bill is going to end up being bigger by deferring the pain until they are in their 60ies[/quote]I think this is why it’s a good idea to consider the 401K Roth (or something like that). Pay the taxes up front and not worry about the higher tax rates down the road.
June 1, 2012 at 7:02 AM in reply to: My next door neighbor was a cop, still under 60, been retired for more than 5 yrs #744717Participant[quote=AN][quote=ltsdd]That’s what I used to think. But I am really sold on idea of splitting your retirement $$ into various buckets so on the one hand you’ll know you will have steady flow of income for x number of years regardless of how the market performs; and on the other hand you’ll know that your retirement $$ will have the opportunity to grow.
I was referring to the S&P & DOW. The DOW might be lower in 2009 and 2010 compared to 1999 and 2000, respectively. However, the returns during the 10-year periods were still positive. You’re right about the possibility of depleting your nest egg. That’s why I don’t think you want to switch to investments that could barely keep up with inflation during your retirement years.[/quote]
I understand what you’re talking. I assume you’re referring to the bucket of money strategy from someone like Ray Lucia?That would be my 2nd option. My 1st option, if I achieve my net egg goal, is to accumulate enough where I can ladder CDs and make more than enough on dividend to live on. If I fail to reach my 1st option, then bucket of money strategy would by my 2nd option. But that just mean I failed and am just trying to make due.
Return between 1999-2009 and 2000-2010 were not positive. They were negative. Like I explained in an early post, depletion of the nest egg drastically affect your average return. So, if you have $2.4M in 2000, over the last 12 years, assuming you have the stomach to keep 100% of your net egg in the S&P, you’re not only negative nominally, you’re depleting your nest egg at $100k a year, which is $1.2M over that 12 years. So, 1/2 of your nets egg is gone and you’re only 12 years into your retirement. Do you think the remaining $1.2M can last you the next 18 years? What if Europe or China goes into the toilet in the next year or two and we’ll see another crash. What would happen to that remaining $1.2M? This is why I wouldn’t want to be in the market if I’m retired.[/quote]
You’re assuming that as a retiree you’ll stick your entire nest egg into a single S&P or the DOW “bucket”. But that’s not how the that thing works. And the assumption that you’ll withdraw the constant amount every year is also flawed. These buckets are rolling buckets – you’ll need to rebalance every year. On lean years you’ll need to withdraw less. So sure you’ll run into some rough times here and there, but the whole idea is that that doesn’t matter if you have money invested for now (ultra defensive, principle preserving) for the near-term and the long-term(go for broke, swing for the fences). In other words if you plan to live for another X years after you retired, then put 1/3 of your nest egg under your mattress (and replenish at the end of each year). Another 1/3 in some other not so risky investment And for the last 1/3, invest as you are investing today. This is just a general example, but you get the idea of splitting your nest egg into various buckets.
BTW., I haven’t read up Ray Lucia’s books, but BStein did mention RL in his book. I like BStein’s method in that he took various strategies (RL buckets of $$, Galeno’s, etc..) and refined them by running those through various scenarios and making adjustments. As a bonus, his self-deprecating sense of humor makes his books both educational and entertaining.
May 31, 2012 at 11:58 PM in reply to: My next door neighbor was a cop, still under 60, been retired for more than 5 yrs #744710Participant[quote=AN][quote=ltsdd]I agree. It sucks to have to work all your life and still not able to have a worry-free retirement. If your goal is to preserve the principle and investing like one then you’re going to run into the risk of running out of money before you die. Here’s one tidbit about the market, I don’t think it ever had a negative return over any 10-year period.[/quote]
The only time you can truly have a worry-free retirement is when your money can make more money from extremely safe investment (CD) than you can spend. Then you can a more worry-free retirement. I’m definitely not risk adverse by any stretch of the imagination, at least not right now. This is because I know I have time on my side and I can ride through any down turn and I’m still making money so I can dollar cost average if I need to. However, I know that when I retire, I will be extremely risk adverse. Which mean I won’t want to retire until I can truly live off the earning of my money when it’s mostly in CD and bonds. I’m sure most retiree would fee the same way.
[/quote]That’s what I used to think. But I am really sold on idea of splitting your retirement $$ into various buckets so on the one hand you’ll know you will have steady flow of income for x number of years regardless of how the market performs; and on the other hand you’ll know that your retirement $$ will have the opportunity to grow.
[quote=AN]
With your tidbit, which market are you referring to? The DOW is lower in 2009 than 1999, it’s lower in 2010 than 2000, it’s lower in 1975 than 1965, it’s lower in 1982 than 1972, it’s basically flat between 1962-1982 with some swing between 600-1000. The S&P was lower in 2010 than 2000, lower in 2009 than 1999 & lower in 1975 than 1965. Again, these 10 years period might not matter as much to those who are working. But to those who are retired, 10 years with 0 or negative growth means they have to deplete their nest egg. Depleting nest egg means they’ll have less $ to participate in the market when they come back up. Which mean they would have to earn a much higher % of return to make up for the amount of money they lose when the market crash.[/quote]I was referring to the S&P & DOW. The DOW might be lower in 2009 and 2010 compared to 1999 and 2000, respectively. However, the returns during the 10-year periods were still positive. You’re right about the possibility of depleting your nest egg. That’s why I don’t think you want to switch to investments that could barely keep up with inflation during your retirement years.
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