JTR site “Carmel Valley Above Peak Prices”

[outtamojo]

Carmel Valley Above Peak Prices

Absolutely amazing.

[Coronita]

Not really… This community featured is Saratoga/ Derby Hills…. One of the most sought after areas.

[utcsox]

[quote=flu]Not really… This community featured is Saratoga/ Derby Hills…. One of the most sought after areas.[/quote]

Carriage Run is about 5% within its peak pricing, too.

[Coronita]

I don’t know. But it seems like CV is humming along just fine.

We’ll see if the equity markets keep tanking, and all that QC funny money starts to evaporate. But then again, it only would impact the “newer funny money”, not the older time “funny money”

[ocrenter]

A lot of it is interest rate driven too. Jumbo now down to 4.125 with zero point. I’ve seen an institution still using the old 625k limit, at interest rate of 3.75.

Mortgage on a 30% down, million dollar 2700 would only be $3300.

[ltsddd]

[quote=ocrenter]A lot of it is interest rate driven too. Jumbo now down to 4.125 with zero point. I’ve seen an institution still using the old 625k limit, at interest rate of 3.75.

Mortgage on a 30% down, million dollar 2700 would only be $3300.[/quote]

I agree. If you have the $$ and/or can qualify for a mortgage, it’s hard to resist not to buy. Be it be your primary or rental.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=flu]Not really… This community featured is Saratoga/ Derby Hills…. One of the most sought after areas.[/quote]

Exactly. While pricing is very strong and closer to peak than other areas this is one small niche in a larger market and not an accurate statement for the overall market there.

[zk]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=flu]Not really… This community featured is Saratoga/ Derby Hills…. One of the most sought after areas.[/quote]

Exactly. While pricing is very strong and closer to peak than other areas this is one small niche in a larger market and not an accurate statement for the overall market there.[/quote]

Not sure if I agree with that. Unless by “small niche,” you’re talking about everything south of the 56. It’s harder to compare Lexington and Belmont to peak prices, because they sold (new) before the peak. Here’s a few that sold recently that were, in my opinion, at or near peak pricing:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/5267-Derby-Hill-Pt-92130/home/6315710

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10670-Haven-Brook-Pl-92130/home/6315372

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/5344-Greenwillow-Ln-92130/home/6484284

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/5216-Greenwillow-Ln-92130/home/4518244

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/10929-Spicewood-Ct-92130/home/4524479

These are mildly cherry-picked. But really, only mildly. The point is that it’s not really a small niche that’s selling well. In fact, I’d say that the majority of what’s selling south of the 56 is at or near peak pricing.

As far as north of the 56, I don’t know; I don’t really follow that. Possibly things there are the same.

[sdrealtor]

Just to be clear I meant things are selling well and close to peak in many cases (within 10%) but not quite at peak. There are exceptions like some of those big newer homes on premium canyon lots.

I’m too busy to go into great analysis on this but check out Sausalito for example. 10821 Calle Mar De Mariposa sold in June 2004 for $820,000. Thats a true peak sale. It resold last year for $694,000 and would sell today for roughly that. Here’s another at 10820 Corte De Marin that sold for $700,000 in 5/05 and just resold for $649K in 2/12.

I could pull up examples like this all day if I had the time.

[Rentedfor9years]

Agreed, things were selling 10%+ -20%+ before the Jobs report.
It would be interesting to see if summer pop ( Dec 2011 – Apr 2012) can be sustained say till Greek Elections aftermath(Jun17th so forth).

These days, house buying has become like a stock picking.

Case 1: QE3 -1T/2T ; prices continue rising.
Case 2: No QE3;stocks down; interest rates up; house price down; gold down
Case 3: QE3 + Euro breakup
Case 4: No QE3 + Euro Breakup
Case 5: QE3 + Euro breakup + ECB QE with left over states
..
.
.
Case N: Everything crash ; Japanese and we are out of misery on housing for next few generations.

[sdrealtor]

Got some time so hear are a few more closings from last 90 days. All are south of 56. I wont include any short sales so that case goes out the window also. While there are others that are below peak pricing I am only including those where the prior sale was during peak pricing period.

Bear in mind that these are all pretty strong cases for CV holding its value better than just about anywhere else in SD but in general it proves the market is not above peak there.

12662 Caminito Radiante sold for $772K in 1/2008 (already below peak) and just resold for $685K

3709 Torrey View Ct sold in 9/04 for $740K and just closed for $700K.

5302 Caminito Vista Lujo sold 5/04 for $890k and just closed for $735K.

10675 Heather Ridge Dr sold in 12/05 for $991K (new which doesnt factor in landscaping a huge lot)and just resold for $912K

5477 Shannon Ridge sold in 10/04 for $1.2M and just resold for $1.1M

Bottomline. CV is as strong as they come but still down 5 to 15% off peak. That in and of itself is impressive.

[Author]

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