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limkotir
ParticipantA lot of money and demand chasing too few goods. Going through the car buying process myself right now – different product but same story, but unlike cars and many consumer goods, you can just pump up the supply side of the equation to counter balance the demand.
$7M is quite out of reach for 99% of the public, but I wonder what is that sweet spot price that balances size, condition and the general area of the home to what you’re paying, if you guys know what I’m asking here — feels like $2.5M to $3M for these NCC homes tracked in this thread?
Participant[quote=oceanbreeze]I paid $100K over asking for a Mira Mesa property I acquired back to Jan. At that time I felt pressure of low inventory and rising interest rate, so just told my agent to compete with other offers no matter what.[/quote]
Just looked, there is currently One (1) SFH on sale… start look at condos and townhouses as starter homes for now.
I think the MM neighborhood (or was it zip 92126) is the largest community in the City of San Diego (or County?), defined as west of the 15, east of Camino Santa Fe, and north of the industrial park of Miramar has about 80,000 people? Someone who has 2020 census data can correct me here… I’m too busy/lazy to look it up.
ParticipantA degree, be it from a decent state school or elite ivy league, is just one aspect from a holistic employability profile that launches your career.
Without question, all things being equal between the candidates, the prospective applicant from a “better / reputable” school will get a closer preferable look.
Having just recently pour over 3 dozen resumes for an entry level tech position I’m partially in charge of hiring, I see 3.5 to 4.0 GPAs from college degree a dime a dozen, but what separates one from the pack is relevant experience and communication skills — half of these kids we’ve interviewed fail to coherently or concisely answer some basic questions.
The schools that prepare its student the best are those driving project based learning and internships with industries (shout out to Georgia Tech and Michigan engineering programs) — as I much rather hire a 3.0 GPA kid with 2 internship tours from UCSD vs. 4.0 GPA kid from Stanford.
Also, not sure if it is my field or my professional experience, the last two elite college kids we hired for entry level “monkey programming work” have had attitude problems, and thought the grunt work we wanted them to do is below them — again, maybe just a coincidence.
Those of you have ran through the corporate life know a career runs like this: Product => Process => People.
You start your career being told what to do, work on a product. As you gain experience, you lead project to drive a process (or fix an issue). Then ultimately, as you move into management and leadership position, you’re all about hiring the right people to execute and lead teams (and fight your political battles).
One question I always ask and probe on endlessly is how resourceful a hire is, because let’s be honest, you don’t know everything. You don’t learn to work on programming on cellular technology (e.g. for Qualcomm) while studying at any university (be it a state or elite university) – as we always say, the best school in the world is University of Google.
Then I notice those bubble to the very top of the org chart are those who are smart (work wise, politically and organizationally) and can communicate and drive changes and impact, and of course, building connections and alliances along the way, plus a % is always luck, being at the right place and at the right time.
ParticipantI think most of your are much more a seasoned traveler than I am, both domestically and internationally, but for some of the places I have visited, in the back of my mind, I would be like, nope, this area would never produce or attract the level of talent, companies or technologies, vs. pockets of the U.S. such as Silicon Valley, SF, Boston, and etc.
I mean, even for big college towns, say, Texas A&M at College Station, outside of those are tied down because they work on-site at the school, why would anybody stay after graduation…?
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]And its not just that. SD is rapidly becoming a world class city it ways it’s never been before. The Shell downtown is a great entertainment venue. SDSU will have a right sized stadium opening next year. The campus will expand greatly to the west at that site also. The sports arena is getting rebuilt. There is a high end Beach front resort in Encinitas now attracting A listers on a regular basis. Bill Gates is currently building himself a massive beachfront compound in Del Mar. UCSD is building an 8th college and there are cranes all over the golden triangle. Carpool lane going north and more south opened recently adding about 10 more miles of it each way on the 5. There trolley blue line just opened. The list just goes on and on. Taken alone none of these is close to earth shattering but taken together the inertia and velocity of change taking place here are stunning![/quote]
Yep… agreed. Beyond everything you said there, SDSU is doing some fine things down there off by the 8.
SDSU-West in Mission Valley will be transformative for that institution: first by raising its total student population from 33K to 50K in the current ~200 acres landlocked mesa in the College Area; establish its STEM research arm in Mission Valley – throw money to attract researchers and faculty to boost its university ranking profile (always a pissing contest), to reach R1 research university status by 202X; lastly, the new stadium and its success with revenue sports (football + basketball) in recent years will set itself up nicely to potentially get invited into one of the Power 5 athletics conferences (Big 12 Conference if it ever expanded West and go to 14/16 members), when college football conference alignment happens again in 2024/25 when existing TV deals go expire — SD is a large TV market with only 1 major sports team in town (Padres) and is a fertile ground for recruiting.
Years ago, between Soccer City and SDSU-West, I voted the latter, as I always vote for academic development, which in theory, would bring in research, companies and jobs.
One data point I find interesting is, in most years (not 2021, the most recent year), UCSD And SDSU are always in the top-10 most applied to colleges in the country. Now, granted, this is mostly due to CA has the largest population, and most college kids are sending multiple applications to their reach, target and safety schools — but I would like to think SD is just a nice town for kids to study!
So even the 18 year kids are voting for SD with their college applications!
One more thing, SDSU is quietly turning into the best overall CSU school (Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo still gets the brightest kids within the CSU school system due to its strong emphasis in STEM since it was stood-up, but may not in the distant future as SDSU spurs up its STEM programs).
I looked at SDSU latest freshman profile, basically, incoming freshmen has 3.82 GPA and 1223 SAT, which 20 years ago, could’ve gotten you into UCSD, before the massive foreign student body invasion from China in the 2010s.
ParticipantSalk Institute, Scripps Research, and UCSD form a solid 3 legged stool of world renowned life science research institutions for high tech zone of Torrey Pines, UTC and Sorrento Valley.
One quick glance on their respective wikipedia pages will tell you:
Salk – … consistently ranks among the top institutions in the US in terms of research output and quality in the life sciences…In 2004, the Times Higher Education Supplement ranked Salk as the world’s top biomedicine research institute, and in 2009 it was ranked number one globally by ScienceWatch in the neuroscience and behavior areas.
Scripps – …The institute holds nearly 1,000 patents, and has generated over 50 spin-off companies. According to the 2017 Nature Innovation Index, Scripps Research is the #1 most influential research institution in the world. The Scripps Research graduate program is ranked 10th nationally in the biological sciences, 5th for organic chemistry, and 2nd for biochemistry.
UCSD – … According to the National Science Foundation, UC San Diego spent $1.354 billion on research and development in fiscal year 2019, ranking it 6th in the nation… As of February 2021, UC San Diego faculty, researchers and alumni have won 28 Nobel Prizes, the second most of any UC campus
People may not know or realize UCSD life sciences is one of the best in the world. I would guess it’s the nicest place to live and work among all the schools in this top 10 list — it’s only in La Jolla / Torrey Pines.
Top 10 schools in research spending
Johns Hopkins University: $3,110,494,000
University of Michigan: $1,673,862,000
UC San Francisco: $1,651,073,000
University of Pennsylvania: $1,579,364,000
University of Washington: $1,456,902,000
UC San Diego: $1,403,735,000
UCLA: $1,392,941,000
University of Wisconsin: $1,363,931,000
Harvard: $1,239,983,000
Stanford: $1,203,950,000
Source: NSFParticipanthttps://www.wired.com/story/pandemic-remote-working-fail/
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-03-23/california-tech-exodus-was-a-bust (Potential Paywall)
A lot words in those two articles (opinionated with data), but San Diego was called out as “raising star” tech hub along with Dallas, Atlanta, Denver, Miami, Kansas City, Salt Lake City, St. Louis and Orlando.
ParticipantThanks for the additional colors there.
I also have been pulling down the names of those sold properties per the county property record database, then look up those folks on Google / LinkedIn.
One property sold late last year in Mira Mesa I had my eye on was bought by a VP at LPL (not sure if LPL hands out VP titles like candies), but if that is the type of folks first time home buyers are facing, along with the techies you mentioned from your POV, then most of my peers that are starting families in their 30s won’t stand much of a chance.
ParticipantDoes anyone have historical data that highlights the correlation and causation effect of high interest rates to San Diego home sales volume and price. Maybe overlay interest rate over one of Rich’s graphs.
Simply put: how does high rate (e.g. 6% 30 year mortgage) affect sales volume, and sale price?
Home prices, like many complex real world Y-variable on a mathematical equation, probably are impacted by a handful of dynamic X variables (X1…X2…X3…etc.), it probably is never that simple and straight forward if X1 happens (interest rate), then Y will occur (sales price).
Looking to get educated by the smarter and more educated folks here! Thanks.
ParticipantSFHs in MM is quickly running away from first time home buyers, at $1M house with 20% down, or $800k loan at 4%, the monthly mortgage is $3,800 per month, plus property taxes + prop insurance, we are looking at a fixed overhead cost of $5,000 per month, before even turning on lights, internet, gas and water.
In short, $5,000 housing cost commitment is probably in the dual income territory, one person pulling in $150k job, another making a more modest $75k or so.
SDrealtor, what is the social economic profile of your buyers in MM (and Kearny Mesa, Clairemont), if you can share such high level details.
Participant3R will a nice master planned community when it up and running. I browse another forum where homeowners and would-be buyers actively discuss various topics.
Of course, what interests me the most is the current price action. And I do wonder if it is a better buy to purchase a newer / resale home in Sorrento Valley, or a home off of Calle Cristobal. Or go to PQ and Carmel Valley.
The entry price to live in 3R is quite steep:
-the purchase price, assume $1.8m for Alta Plan 3B
-1.46% property tax, which includes the SCIP. City of SD standard property tax rate is 1.23%; so another extra 0.23%, or $22,140 Std Prop Tax + $4,140 SCIP
-the $250 to $400 monthly HOA ($3,000 to $4,800)
-the required solar panels (one time $10,000)
-plus upgrades buyers may opt into (XXXX)https://www.live3roots.com/homes/alta
Alta is the biggest SFH within the 3R community, and below are what’s shared. I am not 100% certain, but I believe all 3R home builders have gone to “bidding style” purchase format.https://www.live3roots.com/homes/hudson
Hudson, which is attached townhouses, folks are saying they bid 20-30% above the starting price, and still did not hear back or get selected. INSANE!Homesite 16 Residence 3B – approx. 3,463 Sq.Ft. | 2-story | 5 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms | Bonus Room | CA Room | 2-Bay Garage | Private 1 Bay Garage EI Color Package – FGS1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,720,900 ** Backyard depth average ~25 feet.Homesite 68 Residence 3C – approx. 3,463 Sq.Ft. | 2-story | 5 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms | Bonus Room | CA Room | 2-Bay Garage | Private 1 Bay Garage EI Color Package – WS2.1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,702,900 ** Backyard depth average ~14 feet.Homesite 13 Residence 2C – approx. 3,341 Sq.Ft. | 2-story | 4 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms | Bonus Room | CA Room | 2-Bay Garage | Private 1 Bay Garage EI Color Package – WS2.1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,705,900 ** Backyard depth average ~28 feet.Homesite 71 Residence 1C – approx. 3,157 Sq.Ft. | 2 story | 4 bedrooms | 4.5 bathrooms |Bonus Room | CA Room| Deck | 3-Bay Tandem Garage EI Color Package – FGS1 (this selection cannot be changed) Approximate close of escrow date July 2022
Priced at $1,656,900** Backyard depth average ~17 feet.Participanthttps://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7785-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4557024
Initially listed at $1.3m, then two days ago, changed to $1.65m. Is this the winning bid amount?https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/7885-Norcanyon-Way-92126/home/4555873
Slightly smaller home but with backyard canyon view at the end of the cul-de-sac sold for $1.585m on 3/8https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/11682-River-Rim-Rd-92126/home/4556159
Another similar home on a different street but within walking distance sold for $1.38m on 2/10… lost out on ~$200K in gains in 1 month?Is this insanity we’re observing here…? SDRealtor… your thoughts?
ParticipantThe Buy, Borrow and Die wealth planning strategy?:
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