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latesummer2008
ParticipantYes, Walmart and other retailers will be hurt, due to the “CASH ECONOMY” of under the table workers, NOT spending money. The Government Job Figures are ABSOLUTELY BOGUS here in So Cal. I wonder how many “REAL” construction jobs have been lost so far…
Just wait until the next “June Shoe Drops”…
May 13, 2007 at 2:39 PM in reply to: “…The forecast was so shocking that I hesitated to print it.” #52706ParticipantNothing for the Valley Yet. Perhaps in the future. I would imagine prices have begun to drop there as well. Check out the (RBX) formula on my site and try it with comparable sales from Zillow.
Good Luck!
May 13, 2007 at 2:05 PM in reply to: “…The forecast was so shocking that I hesitated to print it.” #52703ParticipantSchiller is the Only One speaking the truth here. Remember he called the last Stock Market Bubble on the money. Could it be, that he is the only one with credibilty? I believe so.
Let The Show Begin….
ParticipantGuess the Housing Number for TOTAL NUMBER of RESALES in the month of APRIL (Y.O.Y)…
Anybody want to try?
I will.
U.S. (-3%)
CA (-7%)
SD (-9%)
LA (-5%)Still waiting for those numbers, spinmiesters …..
ParticipantPick your Poison. Stagflation or Slowflation. Now that Europe looks to be raising interest rates soon, will the U.S. raise theirs, in order to compete for foriegn investment? That could be, the final nail in the coffin for housing.
ParticipantConsumer Spending Drops in April. Retail sales got wallopped today. The reality is Gas Prices and Housing have people cutting back. Duhhhhhhhhh!!! This is reality, not some spin about the “Weather” or “Easter Calendar” etc. The numbers will get uglier, from here on out. But, “Economists” say this is merely the low point. How convenient…
Have you noticed the price of food, energy or housing lately? Oh, but those aren’t counted in the “Core Inflation” numbers. I guess you really don’t need those things, now do you?
Let’s see,
1) Prices are high
2) Sales are down
3) Growth is slowingThat means 2 things to me:
1) INFLATION
2) RECESSIONThe fed is like a deer in the headlights now. Will they sacrifice Housing for Foreign Investment? Better yet, maybe it will all just go away if we do nothing. Or maybe we can’t do anything. CHECKMATE..
Could be pre-crash behavior for housing AND stocks. By the way, where are those April housing numbers? Still waiting…
ParticipantWhere Are April Numbers? Must be bad, because the spinmiesters won’t release them yet. Look for sales volume and price per square foot to drop YEAR OVER YEAR. Median and Month to Month numbers, are next to meaningless. We’ll probably have to dig beyond the numbers released, as usual. 1/3 of the selling season is over already (March & April). I would love to see that aggregate number measured YEAR OVER YEAR. Anybody have that?
ParticipantUnfortunately True. Too big and bulky to react fast. Average Joe takes the brunt of it. Must be the “American Way”. Kinda like the “American Dream” of homeowner(debtor)ship.
ParticipantWhere Does the Money Go Next? INMHO, money is transferring now from Housing to the Stock Market (Next BUBBLE). Then where? Tulips?
ParticipantBACK to our REGULAR PROGRAM? Seems to be a little debate going on. It is always good to at least consider, the other side of an argument. However, lets move on, shall we?
Anyone else getting the feeling that $$$ that was going into Real Estate is now fueling the next asset class (STOCKS). And if this is the case, the NEXT BUBBLE? Getting bubblicious around here for me….. Can’t we even pop the first one before we blow up another one? How many times can people get burned and not realize what is going on?Frikin salespeople, sending sheep out to slaughter…AGAIN
ParticipantExactamente !! The Writing is on the Wall. Global Housing Meltdown due to CRAZY CREDIT is coming. Overinflated areas such as So Cal are going to get WHACKED… Our economy really never recovered from the last recession in the early 90s. Smoke and mirrors, asset bubbles of stocks and housing.
Unfortunately, there’s no more cards to play and the GAME’S OVER.
Get ready…
ParticipantThis summer will be rough on sellers of RE. Next summer will be brutal. As sellers come out of denial, they will awaken to a new RE landscape. PRICES WILL DROP. There is too much evidence coming in daily, to believe otherwise. Soon, the talk will change from “IF”, to “HOW MUCH”. I believe it will adjust quicker and more pronounced than most people think. When we have a massive speculative bubble as in RE, they normally overshoot the downside faster, than they went up. That is why I will stick to my “Latesummer2008” timeframe for entry back into the market for SEVERLY DISTRESSED PROPERTIES. We should drag along the bottom for 2 posssibly 3 years before RE begins appreciating again. But, 2008 will be 3 years into the downturn from late summer of 2005 when this really all started. Add another 2-3 years before we begin to come out of the bust, and there is your typical 5-6 year decline between booms.
MSM and RE Industry is just trying to control the damage. Plus, guess who advertises in the MEDIA? RE, thats right.
Get your financial house in order over the next year, pull up a chair and watch the DRAMA unfold…
ParticipantApril Employment Numbers are Out.
Job losses starting to mount in other sectors, now as housing strains the economy. Construction jobs are disappearing, now that projects are close to completion.
What’s next?
May 3, 2007 at 6:15 PM in reply to: “Those who say the prices are going to go down 50 percent are just yahoos who are not looking at the whole picture,” #51789ParticipantShotdsherrif, get a grip..
Try bringing some data to this blog and proving a point, instead of just giving an opinion. I have worked as an appraiser and a real estate agent before, and it is obvious, that the real estate market is in trouble. You can’t see it yet, but you will. Try studying trends, observing recent sales and then formulate a hypothesis. Maybe then you can debate. Otherwise, your just stating an opinion, which as they say, is like _______, everyone has one.
I believe that most people here, are in agreement that, buying opportunities are in the future for real estate in Southern California. With the largest speculative RE bubble in history, and the myriad of industry problems, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that one out. As far as how much it declines, who knows for sure, but 25-50% makes housing look much better to me.Sorry you feel so agitated…. Its only a blog.
Get over it. -
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