Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
March 9, 2007 at 6:09 AM in reply to: The Prognostication Station – A Chance to go on the Record! #47188
latesummer2008
ParticipantFormerSanDiegan,
Lets get this ball rollin ! 10 minutes on Zillow produced the first of many to come. This is pretty good one since there was a sale in 05′, 06′, and 07′. Basic 2+1 starter on small lot in Santa Monica.
2464 Ocean Park Blvd
Santa Monica Ca 90405984 sq ft House
3202 sq ft Lot6/15/05 900K
5/26/06 762K
2/16/07 700KThats a 22.3% drop from 6/05 by my calculations. Roughly half of my estimated 45% drop for Santa Monica once all is said and done. And we are JUST GETTING STARTED this summer. See if you can find Westwood. I know Rancho Park 90064 has been hit really hard this last month. Only 6 sales with an average sales price of 665K according to the LA Times monthly sales figures.
ParticipantMeltdown of Westside R.E.? Particularly the areas of Santa Monica, Venice, Mar Vista, Palms, Culver City, Beverlywood, Westwood, Brentwood, Bel Air, Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Rancho Park, Beverly Hills, Century City, West Hollywood and West LA ? I believe that huge drops are in store here in the near future. If you have input on these areas, please reply at
ParticipantDomino Effect w/ Sub Prime being the first to fall ? Seems to me there are alot of LIAR LOANS out there that everyone was getting as long as the banks would give them. Now they can have them back ! Too bad they were packaged up and sold to Wall Street. Hot Potato…. Or Tag..your it… Back to the lender, mortgage broker, real estate agent ?Especially bad here in California where there is little regulation on the mortgage industry. Now that EZ money has about stopped, WHO in their right mind can buy and would buy at these prices ? CLASSIC SPECULATIVE BUBBLE leaking faster and faster each day. Sellers will have a rude wake-up call this spring.
ParticipantDomino Effect w/ Sub Prime being the first to fall ? Seems to me there are alot of LIAR LOANS out there that everyone was getting as long as the banks would give them. Now they can have them back ! Too bad they were packaged up and sold to Wall Street. Hot Potato…. Or Tag..your it… Back to the lender, mortgage broker, real estate agent ?Especially bad here in California where there is little regulation on the mortgage industry. Now that EZ money has about stopped, WHO in their right mind can buy and would buy at these prices ? CLASSIC SPECULATIVE BUBBLE leaking faster and faster each day. Sellers will have a rude wake-up call this spring.
ParticipantYes the Tide is Turning. Anyone with half a brain can read between the lines of economists, realtors, and govt figures. It is easy to see these people are getting hard pressed to massage the remaining numbers. Everyone is selling something. They are trying to keep their livelihoods alive, while sending John Q. Public down the river. Old saying “If it sounds to good to be true, then….” Time to pay the piper folks. This is gonna get uglier quick. Not many cards left to play as I see it. In fact, the entire deck is gone. This week should be quite interesting in the financial markets since the credit crunch has officially started and the mortgage meltdown has investors worried. Wall Street knows their MBS are all screwed. “Oh, my $800,000 home is really only worth $400,000? Here you can have the keys since I was really just renting it for a year or so until my ARM exploded. No big deal, lots people will be foreclosed and the govt will bail out the banks eventually, right ?”
Get ready for screaming ride down. No need to go to Magic Mountain anymore, just watch the R.E. market.ParticipantFast and Furious Market Meltdown could start any day now. Sellers are finally getting a clue. Better price aggresively if they are even thinking about dumping overpriced POS before summer. LAST GASP. MSM is starting to sniff blood.
Participant50% off sounds right ! We are just at the beginning of this real estate cycle bust. Could be quicker, once panic sets in and the MSM gets ahold of it. It wouldn’t suprise me if to see the market almost STOP, DEAD IN ITS TRACKS after this summer, once the real story becomes clear to the public. Still curious about LA JOLLA price history per sq ft, going back to say, 2001 – 2002 Prices?
My feeling is, the higher end prices will GET WHACKED the most to the downside, just like they did to the upside. Next month I believe is when the party really gets started……Participant“Perfect Storm” is brewing out there with the credit market crumbling, inventory spiking, world stock markets stumbling, ARMs exploding, and the mortgage meltdown. Just wait till all the friggin REOs hit the market! Oh by the way, don’t forget about the federal deficit smacking the dollar. So as I said before : HOW LOW CAN IT GO ? La Jolla ? Santa Monica ? Santa Barbara ? Pick your poision and tell us your guestimate in % drop from TODAY(already 10 – 15% off in SM) and possible striking date for future buyers.
I’ll stick to Late Summer – Early Fall of 08′ for santa Monica and Santa Barbara ther should be some real pain after 2 more selling seasons for banks and alot of FBs. La Jolla anyone ?
Lets here yours…..
ParticipantExcellent synopsis ! The point you make about MARKET PSYCOLOGY is HUGE. I have been thinking that once the music stopped ( August 05 here in LA ) and everyone wondered where all the chairs went. Plus, the lagtime, denial, realtor hype, economist hype etc.are factors. The MSM is another MAJOR FACTOR in driving the herd, just as in any speculative bubble to GET RICH QUICK. If history is correct your 7-9 year time frame will be correct. However, IMO the boom has been more accelerated this time around if you look at any of the graphs especialy since 2004. Also we have MANY people with nothing invested that can walk away, like they have rented a house they could never have afforded. I agree it will linger for years, but I see the big drop 30-35% (already dropped 10-15% here in LA )during the next 2 summer selling seasons. Still looking to here about LA JOLLA as I am not in touch with that market. Anyone out there sense what a starter might be priced at in the next couple years ?
ParticipantLETS GET BACK ON TRACK. We all have opinions, they are like….. everybody has one. If we look at the numbers over the past 1-2 years, they are not good. The question is HOW LOW WILL IT GO ? and over what TIME FRAME ?
Obviously it is a general question and depends on which micro market you are looking at in So.Cal. However, the overall macro trend is DOWN. If anyone is familiar with the Westside of LA that would be great. BUT, lets take another area like LA JOLLA. What do you think the average starter say 1000 sq ft 2br/1ba average size lot was at the peak and HOW MUCH in % it will ultimately drop. During that last Real Estate Bust (90s) The highest end often experienced the biggest drop.
Also if you can estimate WHEN the BOTTOM will be and why. ( The magic question.. ) Simply post your predictions of Where, How Much and When. Thanks.ParticipantYes, I too believe we will have a swift collapse once the public realizes we are in a freefall ( 2 years later ). And, since we have NEVER had a bubble in Real Estate like this, the down side is generally worse, not to mention the exotic loan debacle that is just now starting to sink in. Sub Prime wil be the first link to fail along with the ultra high end market trying to cash out before the shit hits the fan. Kind of like eating at the food chain from both ends before the whole thing collapses. As I see it, pure panic by the end of next summer as it really begins to sink in this summer. Banks should be unloading a ton by the end of next year with all their REOs. Than another 2-3 years before a new round of first time buyers are suckered in and gradual appreciation by 2010.
This summer will be interesting when the inventory goes nuts and the buyers are in total control. I might consider nibbling around the bank REOs during the end of next summer if something looks to good to pass up. -
AuthorPosts