Next Shoe Drops in May….

[The-Shoveler]

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

Some what off topic but not really,

Retail sales drop, but consumer credit soars !!

What does that tell you ???

[PD]

Here is an interview with Powayseller. Overall, I think she does a pretty good job. I agreed with her for the most part. I didn’t like the advice she gave to a homeowner who would have his house paid off in 5 years. She advised him to sell in order to protect himself against the coming recession. I don’t think that would be the right move for that person.

She did refrain, mostly, from absolute statements.

http://www.blownmortgage.com/blownmortgage_blog/podcasts/index.html?ref=patrick.net

If she had just stuck to the subject, like she does in this interview, without staring personal attacks, she wouldn’t have gotten into trouble.

[latesummer2008]

Consumer Spending Drops in April. Retail sales got wallopped today. The reality is Gas Prices and Housing have people cutting back. Duhhhhhhhhh!!! This is reality, not some spin about the “Weather” or “Easter Calendar” etc. The numbers will get uglier, from here on out. But, “Economists” say this is merely the low point. How convenient…

Have you noticed the price of food, energy or housing lately? Oh, but those aren’t counted in the “Core Inflation” numbers. I guess you really don’t need those things, now do you?

Let’s see,

1) Prices are high
2) Sales are down
3) Growth is slowing

That means 2 things to me:

1) INFLATION
2) RECESSION

The fed is like a deer in the headlights now. Will they sacrifice Housing for Foreign Investment? Better yet, maybe it will all just go away if we do nothing. Or maybe we can’t do anything. CHECKMATE..

Could be pre-crash behavior for housing AND stocks. By the way, where are those April housing numbers? Still waiting…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[4plexowner]

Retail sales drop, but consumer credit soars !!

What does that tell you ???

4plex: last month’s mortgage payment, groceries and gas went on the credit cards and they didn’t buy any cheap crap from Walmart (that they didn’t really need anyway)

[JWM in SD]

You are describing the same circumstance that Mish Shedlock laid out over a year ago. That scenario leads to Credit Contraction and Deflation of assets which include housing.

[latesummer2008]

Pick your Poison. Stagflation or Slowflation. Now that Europe looks to be raising interest rates soon, will the U.S. raise theirs, in order to compete for foriegn investment? That could be, the final nail in the coffin for housing.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

Guess the Housing Number for TOTAL NUMBER of RESALES in the month of APRIL (Y.O.Y)…

Anybody want to try?

I will.

U.S. (-3%)
CA (-7%)
SD (-9%)
LA (-5%)

Still waiting for those numbers, spinmiesters …..

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[PD]

I think Walmart’s numbers were so poor because of all the illegal construction workers who lost their jobs recently (and have not been reported).
Just about every time I go to Walmart the checker starts talking to me in Spanish until she looks up at me and then switches to English.

[latesummer2008]

Yes, Walmart and other retailers will be hurt, due to the “CASH ECONOMY” of under the table workers, NOT spending money. The Government Job Figures are ABSOLUTELY BOGUS here in So Cal. I wonder how many “REAL” construction jobs have been lost so far…

Just wait until the next “June Shoe Drops”…

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

[latesummer2008]

NAHB numbers out Today. Should be interesting. As matter of fact, this whole week is chock full of housing numbers. First big shoe drops this week. Sellers will realize this summer, in order to sell, they will have to REDUCE PRICES. The Denial period is over…

I still like “late summer of 2008” as the first real buying opportunity. IMHO, price drops will be rapid as reality and panic set in, and not as slow as most people think. Then we drag along the bottom for another 2 years or so.

http://westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com

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