[LA_Renter]

“Look for the Fed. Govt to step in soon”

That is the wild card in the market right now. Cramer pitched an idea today and stated that he thought the govt should take MBIA and Ambac over, dispose of the assets selling the good ones to Buffett, and close the operations down. He said it was not a matter of….IF….they fail, but rather…When….they fail. The govt could then guarentee the $500 Bil of bad paper at .50 on the dollar with a tax payer cost of $250 Bil. He said the Dow would go up 2000 pts if this was enacted. Cramer has some extremely high level players feeding him this info so I would not dismiss this. Here is a post at Calculated Risk on the impact of the dissolution these companies

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/fitch-cuts-ambac-rating-to-aa.html

“The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame,” Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.”

This is turning into a very big story and is IMO the primary reason there has been no bounce…….NO BOUNCE…….in the stock market this week. If you are placing large bets shorting this market a large govt bailout of this type is your biggest risk, talk about a short squeeze. If such a bailout gets put in place the large players will know first long before it makes it across any newswire. Pay attention to the options of the financials. If you see heavy call activity start taking place cover any short position you have. On the other hand if these monolines go under you will see an equally large move down which may be the trigger for the govt to step in. I have a feeling it will be one or the other. This has the making of some extremely volitile swings in the market. It should be great for options trading as long as you are on the right side of the bet.

[LA_Renter]

“Look for the Fed. Govt to step in soon”

That is the wild card in the market right now. Cramer pitched an idea today and stated that he thought the govt should take MBIA and Ambac over, dispose of the assets selling the good ones to Buffett, and close the operations down. He said it was not a matter of….IF….they fail, but rather…When….they fail. The govt could then guarentee the $500 Bil of bad paper at .50 on the dollar with a tax payer cost of $250 Bil. He said the Dow would go up 2000 pts if this was enacted. Cramer has some extremely high level players feeding him this info so I would not dismiss this. Here is a post at Calculated Risk on the impact of the dissolution these companies

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/fitch-cuts-ambac-rating-to-aa.html

“The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame,” Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.”

This is turning into a very big story and is IMO the primary reason there has been no bounce…….NO BOUNCE…….in the stock market this week. If you are placing large bets shorting this market a large govt bailout of this type is your biggest risk, talk about a short squeeze. If such a bailout gets put in place the large players will know first long before it makes it across any newswire. Pay attention to the options of the financials. If you see heavy call activity start taking place cover any short position you have. On the other hand if these monolines go under you will see an equally large move down which may be the trigger for the govt to step in. I have a feeling it will be one or the other. This has the making of some extremely volitile swings in the market. It should be great for options trading as long as you are on the right side of the bet.

[LA_Renter]

“Look for the Fed. Govt to step in soon”

That is the wild card in the market right now. Cramer pitched an idea today and stated that he thought the govt should take MBIA and Ambac over, dispose of the assets selling the good ones to Buffett, and close the operations down. He said it was not a matter of….IF….they fail, but rather…When….they fail. The govt could then guarentee the $500 Bil of bad paper at .50 on the dollar with a tax payer cost of $250 Bil. He said the Dow would go up 2000 pts if this was enacted. Cramer has some extremely high level players feeding him this info so I would not dismiss this. Here is a post at Calculated Risk on the impact of the dissolution these companies

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/fitch-cuts-ambac-rating-to-aa.html

“The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame,” Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.”

This is turning into a very big story and is IMO the primary reason there has been no bounce…….NO BOUNCE…….in the stock market this week. If you are placing large bets shorting this market a large govt bailout of this type is your biggest risk, talk about a short squeeze. If such a bailout gets put in place the large players will know first long before it makes it across any newswire. Pay attention to the options of the financials. If you see heavy call activity start taking place cover any short position you have. On the other hand if these monolines go under you will see an equally large move down which may be the trigger for the govt to step in. I have a feeling it will be one or the other. This has the making of some extremely volitile swings in the market. It should be great for options trading as long as you are on the right side of the bet.

[LA_Renter]

“Look for the Fed. Govt to step in soon”

That is the wild card in the market right now. Cramer pitched an idea today and stated that he thought the govt should take MBIA and Ambac over, dispose of the assets selling the good ones to Buffett, and close the operations down. He said it was not a matter of….IF….they fail, but rather…When….they fail. The govt could then guarentee the $500 Bil of bad paper at .50 on the dollar with a tax payer cost of $250 Bil. He said the Dow would go up 2000 pts if this was enacted. Cramer has some extremely high level players feeding him this info so I would not dismiss this. Here is a post at Calculated Risk on the impact of the dissolution these companies

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/fitch-cuts-ambac-rating-to-aa.html

“The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame,” Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.”

This is turning into a very big story and is IMO the primary reason there has been no bounce…….NO BOUNCE…….in the stock market this week. If you are placing large bets shorting this market a large govt bailout of this type is your biggest risk, talk about a short squeeze. If such a bailout gets put in place the large players will know first long before it makes it across any newswire. Pay attention to the options of the financials. If you see heavy call activity start taking place cover any short position you have. On the other hand if these monolines go under you will see an equally large move down which may be the trigger for the govt to step in. I have a feeling it will be one or the other. This has the making of some extremely volitile swings in the market. It should be great for options trading as long as you are on the right side of the bet.

[LA_Renter]

“Look for the Fed. Govt to step in soon”

That is the wild card in the market right now. Cramer pitched an idea today and stated that he thought the govt should take MBIA and Ambac over, dispose of the assets selling the good ones to Buffett, and close the operations down. He said it was not a matter of….IF….they fail, but rather…When….they fail. The govt could then guarentee the $500 Bil of bad paper at .50 on the dollar with a tax payer cost of $250 Bil. He said the Dow would go up 2000 pts if this was enacted. Cramer has some extremely high level players feeding him this info so I would not dismiss this. Here is a post at Calculated Risk on the impact of the dissolution these companies

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/fitch-cuts-ambac-rating-to-aa.html

“The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame,” Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.”

This is turning into a very big story and is IMO the primary reason there has been no bounce…….NO BOUNCE…….in the stock market this week. If you are placing large bets shorting this market a large govt bailout of this type is your biggest risk, talk about a short squeeze. If such a bailout gets put in place the large players will know first long before it makes it across any newswire. Pay attention to the options of the financials. If you see heavy call activity start taking place cover any short position you have. On the other hand if these monolines go under you will see an equally large move down which may be the trigger for the govt to step in. I have a feeling it will be one or the other. This has the making of some extremely volitile swings in the market. It should be great for options trading as long as you are on the right side of the bet.

[LA_Renter]

I did the same thing as Raybyrnes, I moved the majority of my 401K into cash and bond funds to lock in gains. My asset allocation is going right back into the market S&P type index funds, energy and natural resources, company stock and International. I played the SDS last year and got my hat handed to me, bucked up and went back in Dec, glad I did I guess I was year too early last year.

What are people’s thoughts on a big scale capitulation in the near future. IMO if one were to happen it would be triggered by the current turmoil in the monolines. MBI and ABK are basically being priced for BK (why didn’t I get those puts??). This counterparty risk thing is pretty significant. My gut is telling me we haven’t seen the real fireworks here.

[LA_Renter]

I did the same thing as Raybyrnes, I moved the majority of my 401K into cash and bond funds to lock in gains. My asset allocation is going right back into the market S&P type index funds, energy and natural resources, company stock and International. I played the SDS last year and got my hat handed to me, bucked up and went back in Dec, glad I did I guess I was year too early last year.

What are people’s thoughts on a big scale capitulation in the near future. IMO if one were to happen it would be triggered by the current turmoil in the monolines. MBI and ABK are basically being priced for BK (why didn’t I get those puts??). This counterparty risk thing is pretty significant. My gut is telling me we haven’t seen the real fireworks here.

[LA_Renter]

I did the same thing as Raybyrnes, I moved the majority of my 401K into cash and bond funds to lock in gains. My asset allocation is going right back into the market S&P type index funds, energy and natural resources, company stock and International. I played the SDS last year and got my hat handed to me, bucked up and went back in Dec, glad I did I guess I was year too early last year.

What are people’s thoughts on a big scale capitulation in the near future. IMO if one were to happen it would be triggered by the current turmoil in the monolines. MBI and ABK are basically being priced for BK (why didn’t I get those puts??). This counterparty risk thing is pretty significant. My gut is telling me we haven’t seen the real fireworks here.

[LA_Renter]

I did the same thing as Raybyrnes, I moved the majority of my 401K into cash and bond funds to lock in gains. My asset allocation is going right back into the market S&P type index funds, energy and natural resources, company stock and International. I played the SDS last year and got my hat handed to me, bucked up and went back in Dec, glad I did I guess I was year too early last year.

What are people’s thoughts on a big scale capitulation in the near future. IMO if one were to happen it would be triggered by the current turmoil in the monolines. MBI and ABK are basically being priced for BK (why didn’t I get those puts??). This counterparty risk thing is pretty significant. My gut is telling me we haven’t seen the real fireworks here.

[LA_Renter]

I did the same thing as Raybyrnes, I moved the majority of my 401K into cash and bond funds to lock in gains. My asset allocation is going right back into the market S&P type index funds, energy and natural resources, company stock and International. I played the SDS last year and got my hat handed to me, bucked up and went back in Dec, glad I did I guess I was year too early last year.

What are people’s thoughts on a big scale capitulation in the near future. IMO if one were to happen it would be triggered by the current turmoil in the monolines. MBI and ABK are basically being priced for BK (why didn’t I get those puts??). This counterparty risk thing is pretty significant. My gut is telling me we haven’t seen the real fireworks here.

[LA_Renter]

This is the key development that I am paying attention to this year. Now we are starting to move up the food chain into the more desirable neighborhoods.

[LA_Renter]

This is the key development that I am paying attention to this year. Now we are starting to move up the food chain into the more desirable neighborhoods.

[LA_Renter]

This is the key development that I am paying attention to this year. Now we are starting to move up the food chain into the more desirable neighborhoods.

[LA_Renter]

This is the key development that I am paying attention to this year. Now we are starting to move up the food chain into the more desirable neighborhoods.

[LA_Renter]

This is the key development that I am paying attention to this year. Now we are starting to move up the food chain into the more desirable neighborhoods.

[Author]

Posts