[joec]

[quote=flyer]Here’s the latest:

http://www.delmartimes.net/news/2015/mar/25/one-paseo-petitions/

It has been reported that, currently, over 40,000 people a year are moving to San Diego. If this trend continues, even to a far lesser degree, it would seem housing prices and availability are bound to be effected.

According to the articles I’ve read, many people are concerned that their kids may never be able to buy a home in San Diego–or even rent here–if they want to stay.

There’s only so much buildable land left to develop, and when it’s gone–it’s gone. On that basis, it will definitely be interesting to see how the last few possible projects like One Paseo play out over the next few years.[/quote]

Laugh, I’d say it’s already been happening for the past 10-15 years already. I’d say nearly EVERYONE I know has had family help in purchasing their home…Of course, these homes are all 700k – million plus. Maybe they don’t want their grandkids to live in da “poar” neighborhoods, but I’m amazed so many people has had help.

flyer, could your kids afford a place now without help? It sounds like they have good jobs and good connections, but saving for the down payment takes a bit of time.

[joec]

[quote=AN][quote=flu]There comes a time when you get sufficiently old enough, you just don’t give a shit what other people think anymore.

I think that usually sets in when you’re 40 (at least it did for me). Because statistically, your life is already 1/2 over.[/quote]I came to that conclusion around 30. But I agree with you. I used to care, but after awhile, I ask myself why, and since I can’t seem to come up with a good answer for myself, I stopped caring what other people think.[/quote]

I think this is because at 30, I assume you had a stable g/f or were already married and your job was stable as well. For men, if you are married with kids, why do you need to care what other people think anymore? You don’t have a need or any reason to impress anyone anymore. Even if you get the hot girl now, will you toss your kids away and mess up your family? Guys really don’t care how you act and most guys don’t care about what other guys think. One reason why Al Bundy says “I’m married, with children!”

All your success was probably through savings and hard work, but for people who are single who don’t want to be, they care very much what other people think and spend money, act accordingly.

Also, I think most people would agree that a degree at an Ivy with a worthless degree and not really networking or anything is probably not going to be a great ROI, especially for men…but there are some jobs which require a Ph.D and I know some tech chip design and researchers who do have/need those degrees.

If you want to graduate and open a hot dog cart, yes, probably a law degree or any degree is not going to help and a waste of money.

Bottom line in all this is that it does depend on what you want to do with said degree or ivy or whatever. It’s not always a slam dunk and connections are worth a lot more, but it’s easy to see a few very wealthy business people and think biz owners are the way to go…if business was so easy, I think EVERYONE will do it since we talk to many people and everyone is ENVIOUS that we are self employed…I tell everyone to keep their day jobs and for the ones who do try, they eventually always go back to their day jobs as well. Not so easy for everyone.

I do know some biz folks myself who are just college grads, couldn’t find regular eng work and had some LUCK being in the right field/timing and made millions able to afford nice house, ferraris, etc…but I bet you will find more who didn’t make it. I also know some finance folks who had to shut down their firm and “work” for low pay at some banks because their “bizness” didn’t work.

People always look at the few successful people like Jobs, Zuck (wealthy parents I presume since both him and older sister got into Harvard), Gates (wealthy attorny dad), GoPro guy (UCSD, wealthy family) and think that it’s better without a college degree…but in reality, most people are better off having the basic degree since business is HARD and extremely cutthroat and more competitive than most jobs are. Get the best degree you can afford.

University is not that black and white and having a degree from a “better” or more highly rated university is a much safer bet in life in terms of earnings, success, married life, etc…

Is that ROI worth it? Again, it will depend…but I’d say for most people, having a Stanford or Harvard or MIT undergrad isn’t going to hurt you from getting hired while if you come out of SDSU, trying to get hired by top tech firms of the past would be easier…

[joec]

I think the main reason articles like this is posted or people are concerned is because in say the last 60 years or so which is where people’s perspectives are stuck, the US general “middle” class had it good. With the world and Europe all bombed out, it was a ripe time for US manufacturing to boom and job growth, etc…

We’re probably just reverting to the historical (1000 years) mean of few wealthy, poor masses, etc…

Europe has a wide safety net and is making them less competitive with other countries. US doesn’t have this as much, but when push comes to shove, people will just revolt .again., but not anytime soon since it’s not that bad yet. I’d guess in 50 years.

The high youth unemployment is a big problem in some countries of Europe and if this were to occur in the US in mass, you’ll end up having more people willing to join disenfranchised groups to cause problems for everyone. Specifically, the single males will lead to more crime or acts of terrorism. I’m surprised Yemen is collapsing now.

Automation will continue to happen, but it has been occurring for a long time.

Also, people many years ago 60+ probably lived younger so you worked, retired, and died within 5 years.

Back in probably 0 AD, people lived to 35? so no need for retirement.

With people living to the 90s-100+, it’s a big problem for everyone and we’ll see places like Japan first and see what they do. Honestly, having seen old folks and having volunteered to help old folks before, them living in homes and doing things like sit, watch tv shows they don’t care about, work on coloring books, I think I’d rather just be dead than to be in a mode of “waiting to die” as that’s what it looks like to me.

[joec]

All good points Dukehorn. I agree that at the UC schools, dropping classes if you’re doing poorly is near impossible. I know people in engr where 1/3 of the class HAD TO FLUNK (get a C- or lower) so a lot of people aren’t going to get a decent GPA if you’re in that major.

I see a shortage of males to actually marry for highly educated, wealth women actually. Most women would want someone more well off/successful, but tehre are fewer and fewer men now in that area.

All the grad schools already have more women than men and the few women making bucks will have very few men to fight over…

[joec]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Try being married with a family. Getting a little alone time is not such a bad thing.[/quote]

+1…

or +20 or +200…

I love alone time.

[joec]

One downside people don’t see with not paying for the CFD bonds is that you CAN’T go to all the new schools built using those bonds.

That will make it not the same as living in the area as other kids closeby. Maybe the next door house is in the same boat, but I’d guess those houses would be less desirable.

In 4S, there is a gated community I think right next to the school and they aren’t directed to go there now (if the school is full which it always is).

To me, that makes the house a worst deal since you’re stuck driving to a far away school and not making friends with the locals.

This happened a lot with the new PUSD school as well (Design 39).

[joec]

Another thing to factor in is what is your rental cost? I used to rent the cheapest crapholes I could find, but I wouldn’t want to live there long term (area, neighbors, schools, etc…was single)

If you rent in a 3k/month place now and are ok with buying a 3k/month place, then buying is easier to stomach vs. renting in a 1k/month place and it costs you 2.5k/month to buy the place you want to live in longer term…

Kids and school districts make it harder to rent small/cheaper in general.

Doesn’t sound like you have kids or a spouse so renting makes more sense for flexibility.

[joec]

[quote=FlyerInHi]I got one of the those, spd.

As blogstar said, drying the blade makes a lot of sense. I was told to cover the blades with some baby oil to prevent rusting/dulling, but i’m too lazy to do it.

Amazon had sales on blades for like $2 /with clickable coupon… so I stocked up.[/quote]

Yeah, I just reuse my blade for 6 months…switch when the rust is very bad…

[joec]

I think unless you are foreign or have lived in a foreign country for a while, moving to a foreign place isn’t as great or easy as they make it sound…

If it was, they wouldn’t have to say a thing and instead, just bitch about all the damn americans moving in.

[joec]

[quote=wallers]ok thanks everyone! great info. I think I am going to rent and see how this all plays out.

From all the info here and everywhere generally speaking it seems prices will either remain somewhat the same/maybe a bit up for sometime and things will trudge along or go down. So financially it might be prudent to wait and see with minimal risk of a continued large price increase (buy now or be priced out forever!). Plus there is the possibility of staying calm and being rewarded for waiting for lower prices.

On the personal side I like being a homeowner. But if I can’t get what I want perhaps than maybe it’s not a great idea to buy anyways.[/quote]

I think the bottom line for a lot of people to also consider is if you don’t own ANY property, then buying something you can easily afford to LIVE in is not the dumbest thing in the world. You have to live somewhere and like the poster who bought for 330k and her house is now worth 550k or so, whatever the equity is worth shouldn’t matter if you can afford the payments and are long term.

There are way too many variables within the housing market alone as well as way too many variables in each of our lives. You can wait a long time, but say you are in your early 30s, married and have 1 kid with 1 on the way and you want a stable environment to have them grow up. Sure, you can say it’s overvalued and it will revert, but what if that takes 20 years, or 30 years? By then, you’re 50-60+ and looking to retire. Ultimately, it’s just money and again, that 1st home to live in shouldn’t matter as much if the payments aren’t that bad. Also, some areas never stay down forever. I know all the properties my parents bought in the bay area are higher then they paid when they bought. I believe decent places in NY is the same and most of coastal CA.

Sure, you can rent, but it’s nice when you know your housing payment for the next 30 years and no landlords possibly kicking you out with a month notice cause their kid is coming back from college, etc…or the constant rent increases.

Another thing I have mentioned is all the time you waste here or any housing forum (I wasted tons more prior to buying) is a waste of time. I simply love not caring or having to worry where housing prices will go.

Also, I think only certain areas had a lot of investors. In a lot of the higher end or at least over the 600-700k markets, I really don’t see people buying to flip or rent homes out in that price range. It’s all families here (4S/Del Sur).

[joec]

I think a lot of universities also have a large number of nice facilities as well as very fancy dorms/suites now compared to 20-30 years ago…when you look back now, it’s sad we went to school so long ago.

[joec]

It’s harder now for a few reasons. Obvious ones are healthcare (more expensive), wages not keeping up with inflation (in general), education costs, jobs are not as stable (no unions), etc…

Tech is also a great destroyer of jobs (like this Fintech and outsourcing of all manner of jobs now in the US) as is Amazon killing off a lot of small businesses.

Overall, if you don’t make it by 50-60, it’s probably too late and the US is just becoming more like other countries in the world probably in terms of trying to get ahead. The American dream is mostly dead IMO since as has been discussed, sometimes getting your foot in the door depends on who you know, etc…and family wealth/connections. If you are born poor in a very bad part of town, it’s unlikely you will be able to get into a decent college, or at alletc…Maybe be a musician or athlete (only way I see ultra poor people make it).

I’d say nearly everyone I knew had family help to buy their first home (nice areas) so future generations, if they want to get ahead without parental help, will have to make sacrifices in their lives for their kids (which asian immigrants have been doing in the past)…less so now for many people I think since most people seem to like their luxuries/coffee/you name it.

[joec]

[quote=zk]Get solar. I’m doing that right now. Getting estimates. It’s a no brainer if you can pay cash. Even if you have to finance, it’s probably a good thing.[/quote]

How much is your monthly bill now?

I assume there is some break point where if you bill is x, then solar isn’t worth it until you past y.

[joec]

Whenever someone asks these questions, you have to ask yourself are you asking because you want to buy and want it to crash or are you a seller or owner and you want it to keep rising?

You can just scan the posts above and get the same read from the same posters as to where they stand since they have posted about the same thing before and their position is the same. This makes it so that the poster and most anyone is very biased as to what will happen when generally, most of the time, a lot of people are just flat out wrong. Also, the things you hear in the news are to sell news and sensationalize the situation when really, it’s all pretty boring so it’s not as bad as people state in the media. It’s all pretty stupid, but they are there to sell ads.

People have a tendency to also put too much in what they want and think that their position is the “correct” one.

Ask yourself where you are based on my comments above and be careful that you are actually wrong to think that way since you are simply choosing to see what you want to see or happen.

That said, a lot of people (mass media, business shows) have actually been predicting a housing crash so I don’t see that everyone thinks that it’s going to go up forever. People keep harping that interest rates will go crazy and inflation will be out of control and they have been wrong for the past 5 years already.

All that said, I agree with the general view of some posters that it will just move up slowly and that’s it. There is way too much cash on the sidelines (look at all time highs on stocks) for it to crash because if there is a drop, money will move in.

You also have to look at the most important thing such as rents. Rents are insanely high as been posted here and Rich (owner of this website) have stated very clearly with data that we are nowhere in bubble as in 2006-07…

I have posted also that buying at times maybe even cheaper than renting in the same area in the same house (20% down, tax benefits for higher income folks) so how can it go down or “crash” as some people want?

If you aren’t in dire straits, everyone in that situation (owners) will simply rent out their house instead of selling and I see a ton of these (not literally of course) in my area because their loan payments are so low.

Also, anyone who bought recently had very strong finances as the mortgage market was overly hard. Contrary to many other people perhaps, for many areas in San Diego and LA and the coast in general, I don’t think any “middle class” are really the buyers here anymore.

For 500-1 mil houses, the down payment (using how houses used to be bought), people would have to come up with 100k – 200k in cash. Most regular “middle-class” folks can’t get anywhere near that so the market these people support now are moveup buyers, foreigners (large chunk) and lots of highly educated, well paid folks. These people tend to have better jobs, better family support, and more savings so unlike when the bubble crashed with 0 down, ninja loans, these people won’t sell houses for less than they paid if they don’t have to, especially if they can rent it out.

Unlike 30-40 years ago (I was already in the states)…communities are not as diverse where the doctor is living next to the blue collar guy etc so certain areas will continue to slowly command a premium.

tl;dr:
Slow growth in desired areas mentioned (SD, LA, Coastal, Bay Area). No crash at all. Low inventory…all IMO.

[joec]

[quote=UCGal]All I know is that my 529 savings accounts will NOT be enough to pay for Ivy. But I’m hoping it will be enough to pay for UC. They can go to grad school on my dime if there’s money left over.

If my kids get accepted to Ivy and don’t get financial aid – then it’s an issue…

Truthfully, I doubt my kids will be accepted to Ivy schools – I’m hoping for acceptance to UC schools – which is much harder now than when I was accepted to UCB several decades ago. FWIW – my engineering degree from SDSU was good enough for me to support myself, sock away some money, and retire at age 52. I was not going to keep working just in case my kids wanted to go to Harvard instead of UCSD, UCLA, UCI, etc…[/quote]

Congrats on early retirement, but a lot of that has less to do with SDSU than an Ivy league degree. Having followed your posts for a long time here, I seriously believe if you went to an Ivy League school, you would have done just as well and my guess is, even much better with your work and savings ethics.

At the end of the day, you can go to SDSU and spend to no end and be on the streets, go to an Ivy and penny pinch and retire early too.

Early retirement is more about saving more than you spend and living a certain lifestyle…

[Author]

Posts