OT: Future Economy and Job Losses

[flyer]

Just curious what “Piggs” think of the following scenario, and how (based upon the recent posts concerning education) younger people can possibly plan for a secure future if this plays out as suggested?

Future Economy: Many will lose jobs to computers
John Shinal, Special for USA TODAY

“Within the next decade, more and more jobs are likely to be automated – and hence, fewer people will be needed to do them.

Want a secure job in the future? Here’s a few things you need to know:

Workers wanting secure employment in coming decades will need skills that complement software applications, rather than compete with them.

Those who don’t possess such skills face a nearly-50 percent chance of having their occupations replaced by automation, according to two University of Oxford professors who studied technology’s impact on employment over the last 500 years.

The career fields seen losing the most jobs include not just relatively low-skilled occupations such as telemarketing and retail sales, but also high-paying positions now held by accountants, auditors, budget analysts, engineers, technical writers and insurance adjusters, among others.

All of those jobs face at least an 85 percent chance of being automated, say Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne in their 2013 paper, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?”

The jobs most at risk all have one thing in common: they’re in occupations “mainly consisting of tasks following well-defined procedures that can easily be performed by sophisticated algorithms,” the pair wrote.

Even some highly-educated, technical occupations face relatively bleak chances of seeing growing employment in their field, as ever-smarter computers become better at analyzing massive amounts of data, to support all kinds of business decision-making.

Mathematicians, for example, face a 47 percent chance of seeing their jobs automated, the same percentage for all current occupations as a whole.

The jobs that will persist in the future include those that either take advantage of uniquely-human traits – such as manual dexterity, creativity and emotional intelligence – or that improve the lives of other humans directly in a face-to-face setting.

For example, dentists, nutritionists, athletic trainers, podiatrists, elementary school teachers and occupational, recreational and mental health therapists all have a less than 1 percent chance of being replaced by computer software, say Frey and Osborne. For similar reasons, firefighters have a much lower chance of being replaced by software.

There’s another, less academic way of seeing which occupations are most at risk of automation, of course.

That is to make a survey of industries that have already suffered job losses due to innovation from growing technology companies, then predict where they will innovate next.

Amazon.com CEO Jeff Bezos, for example, has kept his company’s sales growing for two decades thanks to rapid, frequent innovation.

New ideas such as using so-called server farms — huge warehouses jammed with Internet servers – have allowed Amazon to compile and analyze large amounts of data on its customers’ purchasing habits.

With that knowledge, Amazon has been able to tailor its users’ online experiences and suggest similar purchases in the future.

Because of this kind of software-powered automation, sales growth in the books, music and movie businesses has moved online, just as sales of hotel rooms and plane seats are also doing, thanks to flourishing Web travel sites like Priceline.com.

Now that Amazon’s Bezos has shown off the first of his planned delivery drones, the writing is on the wall for workers at freight companies such as FedEx and UPS.

The days of delivery drivers (and cabbies) are also numbered, thanks to Google’s driverless cars and other automated vehicles of the future.

Likewise, as new real estate Web sites such as Zillow and Trulia create savvier buyers and sellers, they’re reducing the need for professional market expertise.

Real estate appraisers and brokers, for example, both face a better-than-85 percent chance of future job losses.

Regardless of their industry, workers of the future should begin learning how to add value that complements software-powered automation, before their jobs are replaced by it.”

[Anonymous]

It’s even worse than that – I’ve heard that they are making mechanical looms!

[flyer]

Although the threat of the mechanical loom is, of course, the most ominous threat to future job security (sorry for such a critical omission) and although these observations were taken from an ancient text in the year 2014, imho, it will still be extremely interesting to watch if and how all of this plays out over time.

[The-Shoveler]

IMO this is mostly hype and most of these Jobs will take decades to fully automate, (in the mean time it’s a good time to be a software engineer IMO).

Eventually I think it will be more like Wall-E than anything else but that is 25-30 years down the road at least (before we reach the singularity).

Then I think it will be good to have a degree in “party planning”.

[scaredyclassic]

In the future all underwear will be virtual.

[scaredyclassic]

It does feel like humans are increasingly unnecessary.

[jeff303]

I think we’re a loooong way from post-scarcity economics. Hell, we can’t even get reliable fresh water for all of CA at this point. A minimum prerequisite would be infinite, virtually free energy, which is still a ways off.

[flyer]

The reason I posted this article is because it just seems there is more concern about career and retirement security today–far more than in “my day”–(I’m in my 50’s)–since my peers and I have always pretty much considered these things a “slam dunk.”

I agree that most of this may just be hype at this point in time–as has been mentioned–but if I had younger kids (mine are grown)–I’d definitely give the predictions some consideration. Can’t imagine spending years and thousands of dollars getting a degree that doesn’t pay off.

[Anonymous]

Life has always had its challenges.

The reason we worry about retirement today is because we don’t have to worry so much about dying.

Perspective changes with age. Not many think about retirement in their 20s, many do in their 50s.

For most, the world was better for our parents. Not because it was genuinely better, but because we were children when our parents faced the struggles of adulthood.

[no_such_reality]

What happens when IBM’s Watson can be held in a single server rack and bought for $100,000?

[The-Shoveler]

Watson’s OK for crunching statistics and making a statistical conclusion but it is not true IA yet.

It not capable of writing complex programs or building a better AI than we could.

And it’s not going to build your next home or pull the weeds on your hill(now when it can do that then I will be impressed).

[fun4vnay2]

How much people building homes or pulling weeds from lawns get ?
Doe sit mean that only these kind of low paying jobs would be left.

This topic is close to my heart as I am witnessing almost firsthand how the high paying jobs ( 150K+ ) are being eaten away by low cost sources and AI/automation.

People saying that these would create another set of jobs at a higher level is simply hog wash..

Don’t have time to write a long post, may be some other time..

[flyer]

Thanks for chiming in on this rt. When I first started reading articles like this, I didn’t give the predictions much thought, and passed them off as others have.

Then, as I started seeing more and more predictions like this, I became even more curious about what is really going on, which led me to post this article.

It’s very interesting, and unfortunate that you are already seeing evidence of these predictions firsthand, and I think it should be a wakeup call to a certain degree–especially to those who have younger kids who will be planning careers in the future.

[an]

[quote=flyer]It’s very interesting, and unfortunate that you are already seeing evidence of these predictions firsthand, and I think it should be a wakeup call to a certain degree–especially to those who have younger kids who will be planning careers in the future.[/quote]20 years ago isn’t too different from 20 years from now. Private schools were $30k+ a couple of decades ago. So a BS would cost you $100k+. If that doesn’t get you think think twice about majoring in underwater basket weaving, I don’t think a $400k price tag would do it.

[FlyerInHi]

Education is not necessarily about ROI. Like anything in life, there’s perceived value. A prestigious education can just be the Prada. The Walmart brand is just as functional.

Would you veto your wife’s purchase of a Prada? You might even go out and buy it as a gift, haha…

[Author]

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