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JES
ParticipantPerry – Only someone raised in France would use the word ‘auntie’ 🙂
ParticipantDavid – Good luck to you and your family. There are people out there who are pulling less than 50k a year deciding to buy similar priced homes, but you clearly have the income to make it through a downturn, even if it is steep. Assuming all software engineering jobs are not outsourced to India next week.
I am curious about the analysis you have done to determine that you are better off with this decision. You mentioned the emotional aspect of owning a home, and if that is the basis of the decison then I understand. But as far as the numbers are concerned, how much of a drop do you think we will see? And under the scanario you are going with, how will the numbers work out for you in 4-5 years when you sell?
I’m curious because I have a family as well, sold a home last year, want to buy another house for emotional reasons, but have decided that right now is the worst time ever to buy. When I say right now I literally mean this month and the rest of this year, not necessarily next year. The selling season is over, inventory is at record highs and not selling, prices are being slashed everywhere. Most on this board believe that this will be a prolonged downturn, and even a recession. But even the ones who don’t believe that still think the rest of this year will be a bloodbath. I sold a home near Escondido earlier this year, and in just 4 months prices in that neighborhood have dropped 10% and the whole street is for sale.
It sounds like you got a great deal, but consider that in the same way Spring 2004 was the best time ever to buy a home here because prices were going up daily and inventory was super low, this may be the worst time ever to buy.
ParticipantChrispy – The three scenarios you outlined still leave the door open to Perry’s theory. Buying a house on your own doesn’t prove to me that you are still not socialized to find a husband to take care of you. Perhaps you are still looking for a man or alternatively perhaps you are in a state of denial, doing everything possible to create the illusion that you don’t need a man, when in fact any day the right man could come along, whisk you off your feet and steal half your equity:)
Participant1) Rent
2) Yes, sold March 2006
3) After the peak, but only about 4% below peak value
4) Decided there was a bubble because of slowing sales and my own research. And common sense as well!
5) Will not buy back in same n-hood.
6) NA
7) NAParticipantDavid, since you mentioned you are moving right next to San Marcos, this has to be the development off of Barham Ln near the Woodland Parkway exit on the border between Escondido and San Marcos? If so there are things you need to know about that area.
For starters, the San Marcos neighborhoods directly to the west are flooded with homes for sale. Look at Silvercrest, the bigger homes next door. Big price reductions there. Then go further down Barham, take a left on LaMore and look at that gated community on your right side. It is adjacent to Cal State and there are 15+ homes for sale in that small gated community, and some are being foreclosed with others on the way. Then look at that huge monstrosity of a track that rises over Woodland Parkway near what I’m assuming is your chosen n-hood. That is called the Sprinter and will soon have 2 x diesel trains running from 6 am until 11 at night, every 15 minutes all day long. On top of all this, the area is surrounded by mobile home parks and there is a major gang tagging problem. The n-hood I’m guessing you have chosen was tagged with a huge gang symbol (over 50 feet long) last year.
ParticipantAre there any upgrades included?
I would tell them that you want to buy it at the lower price and nothing more. Walk away if you have to and leave your contact information.
ParticipantI just saw an article on CNN.com, business link, with the following news about new home prices nationwide:
“The median price is now down 10.5 percent from the record high set in April of this year”
10.5% drop in 3 months!
ParticipantAdvice to not buy should not be viewed as negative advice. I’m optimistic. If you get out of this deal now I’m very optimistic you will find greater opportunities in the next 1-2 years. Also consider that if you buy right now you still will not really own the house, the bank will. You’ll just be making payments to a different place.
ParticipantCrime and culture, like I said. One guy I read is even speculating that Europe will be Muslim by 2100. The debate has now shifted from what is good economically, and how they can help impoverished people to whether their very culture, religion and way of life are threatened. Our immigration issues pale in comparison IMO. Crime is an issue, but Mexican immigrants bring strong families, Christian faith and a desire to work hard and earn a living. Perhaps fear and culture is a better way to put it. Sometimes the fear is justified by real crime, and other times the issue is just fear.
ParticipantAny chance of you moving to Denver sooner? The market there is absolutely horrible right now, and prices are 1/3 the price they are here and still going down. My wife and I and two kids have been looking in Ft. Collins, Denver and Colorado Springs and the deals are amazing, but considered high by locals!
My advice is to break your escrow and not buy. Even if we assume no recession, and small drops in price, it is still not a good time to buy as this year it will only get worse now that the summer is over. Rent a house at 1/2 the cost ($1900 for a small home even in Carlsbad, Encinitas), closer to the ocean in a better school district. Put your money in money market/Tbills/Savings and secure your ability to buy that nice home in Denver. As your money grows, watch Denver and San Diego fall and look for deals.
ParticipantThe problem I see with us complaining about the social services costs is that the positive impact illegal immigrants have had on the economy far outweighs these costs. It is tough to put a figure on it (perhaps someone has data?), but these 10 million people fill unwanted and low wage jobs that would otherwise go unfilled at a time of almost full employment in this country. They spend some of the hundreds of billions of dollars they earn on consumption. Seems to me that the real issues here are 1) Criminal activity, and 2) The impact that immigration has on our culture. Are small towns in Wisconsin, for example, willing to welcome in masses of Mexican immigrants whose culture differs from their own? And are those immigrants willing to assimilate into our own culture, learn English etc? Too many immigrants too fast can radically change a culture. I say that most Americans will welcome this so long as it is balanced because I am convinced that unlike Muslim immigrants in Europe, Mexican immigrants share many of our values and will want to assimilate over time. In the short run though we will see increased crime, friction in communities and the like.
ParticipantThat American citizen should go to school and get advanced skills in areas like engineering, nursing or landscape architecture (if gardening is their passion) so they don’t have to compete with the Mexican gardener. And then they will be able to compete with the Chinese, Indian, Bangledeshi, Pakistani Iranian and European engineers who come to this country, get a few years of experience at the best companies and then take the knowledge back to foreign economies, space programs and militaries in some cases.
Multiculturalism may seem like a noble cause, but it is consistantly backfiring accross the globe and is fundamentaly flawed. Whether we look at Europe’s Muslims or our own experiences here in the U.S., it is clear that we should be finding ways to bring people together and not championing our differences to the point that pride, hatred and intolerance take root.
Go to the suburbs of Paris in the country you know so well and tell me how well multiculturalism is working. Go to the Netherlands and ask them how multiculturalism has led to close to 1 million foreigners who refuse to integrate and are actually trying to impose Muslim cultural laws on everyone.
Read this article from the Washington Post on Europe’s failed multiculturalism:
http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/20041210-083500-8610r.htm
ParticipantAs far as laws and restrictions are concerned, I agree that the free market should continue to be free, but we will always need laws. And those laws are impacted by what society deems as moral. I would not be in favor of a law that dictates how many homes you can buy, or who can and cannot buy, but even current tax laws provide incentives and disincentives for various actions, in the housing market and also the stock market.
For example, even if you sell your primary residence before two years are up you can still claim a partial tax break if you had a death in the family, lost a job etc. If you don’t meet the criteria, you get no breaks. These laws are in place because as a society we have decided that it’s beneficial to give tax breaks to encourage home ownership, but also to encourage people to keep the home at least two years to provide some stability to the market. Builders and communities are also crafting rules against flipping because they have realized that flipping can have a negative impact on business and neighborhoods.
Arguments I’ve see about the morality of this center more on the disruption and instability to neighborhoods it causes and not necessarily on the fact that a family now has to pay more for housing. And most of my beefs with the current system have to do with non-independant insiders gaming the system without consequence. Buyers also need to be held accountable to know that flipping is going on and to stay away from those areas, just like they should be expected to know that a 1 month interest only loan might be a bad idea.
ParticipantIf builders are cancelling projects will this lead to significantly less inventory down the road, say in 1-2 years and upward price pressure again? Only if the resale inventory falls as well I suppose?
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