- This topic has 12 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 18 years, 1 month ago by (former)FormerSanDiegan.
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August 23, 2006 at 2:58 PM #7279August 23, 2006 at 3:08 PM #32852(former)FormerSanDieganParticipant
Tell us more about the break even opportunity.
Which areas have fallen 10-20% already ?
August 23, 2006 at 3:40 PM #32857LA_RenterParticipantMan, you got to see the Chili Peppers. Envy. I was at a work function last week and somebody asked a question if you could have a band play at your own party who would it be, mine the chili peppers. Hope you had a good time.
August 23, 2006 at 4:30 PM #32880waiting hawkParticipantIs there a 99% camp? I bet the food sux there.
August 23, 2006 at 4:32 PM #32881ChrispyParticipantThere’s a Fifty Cent camp, for all you rappers.
August 23, 2006 at 4:33 PM #32883PDParticipantI say RE will go down another 30%. However, the 10% – 15% drop happened pretty fast. We could go deeper than that if the pace keeps up.
August 23, 2006 at 4:42 PM #32888PerryChaseParticipantsdrealtor, what is your prediction? You're one of the most optimistic here.
August 23, 2006 at 5:08 PM #32892Diego MamaniParticipantWe should take a hint from Shiller, a bright scholar who really knows what is going on, and who refused to make predictions on air last night. Like market-timing, making predictions is a fool’s game.
If I had to guess, I would say 30% to 40% in real terms in 5 to 10 years, for SFRs in LA and SD. But I wouldn’t bet on it!
August 23, 2006 at 6:28 PM #32902sdrealtorParticipantMy guess has always been about 30%. I belive the big drops will come rather quickly in the next 12 to 16 months and then it will creep down for a couple more years.
The concert was great, though I was bummed that they didnt play Under the Bridge or Higher Ground. Though i’ve been a fan for a long time events always seemed to conspire against me seeing them live. I was very pleasantly surprised by what great musicians they are as well as being incredibly charismatic performers. My brain is still a little foggy, hopefully I’ll be back at 100% tommorrow. Today I feel old.
August 23, 2006 at 8:26 PM #32914anParticipantI think your scenario is probably the most likely scenario. That’s what I think will happen too. I hope we both are right :-). If it drop 30% in the next 1-2 years and drop 2% every year for 4 years after that, the real drop will be around 40%. That’s not counting in inflation. If inflation is 4%, that would put the drop to more like 50%.
August 24, 2006 at 9:55 AM #32994JESParticipantI just saw an article on CNN.com, business link, with the following news about new home prices nationwide:
“The median price is now down 10.5 percent from the record high set in April of this year”
10.5% drop in 3 months!
August 25, 2006 at 8:12 AM #33174powaysellerParticipantThis story deserves its own thread. Mind if I post it?
August 25, 2006 at 9:11 AM #33185(former)FormerSanDieganParticipantRaw Numbers, anyone ?
Anyone find the raw numbers that go into Rich’s famous Median price-to-per capita income chart ?
With those, it would be easier to play games with projections, such as Rich did in his VOSD article.
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