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JES
ParticipantI’ve noticed that on the bubble markets inventory tracking web site the inventory for San Diego has leveled off at around 23,500 for the past 2 weeks.
Would you expect to see a bump in pendings and in prices? I would think that prices would show a drop due to reductions, unless the upper end has a disproportional share of sales.
JES
ParticipantWe don’t have to assume it is the one true faith to demand that the cross stay where it is. This country was founded on Judeo-Christian beliefs and they are a part of our history. This monument is a historical treasure. These same people would have us remove all references to Christianity out of the Constuitution.
I’m sure we’ve all heard that we should choose our battles carefully. Well, when it comes to the ACLU why is it that their lawsuits always seem to target those things that most American hold dear? Like Christmas, Christian historic monuments, the Boy Scouts etc and other fringe issues. And they are even trying to undermine national security by fighting most of the Patriot Act and demanding recruiters stay off campuses. If they don’t like the law on gays in the military, change the law, don’t take away the opportunity to learn about military careers from college students!
JES
ParticipantThat’s why I love USAA. In the unlikely even they collapse, the government should be especially sure to look after them because their customers are our military. I bet at least 50% of military folks use USAA.
If you have a father, mother, close relative who is a vet or in the service I rec seeing if you can join. Once you join, you are in for life even if you have no products with them.
JES
ParticipantI bouhgt a Centex home and had a great experience, great customer service. Had friends who went with DR Horton and did not.
JES
ParticipantWe need to ask ourselves why that house we want in, say, Carlsbad is even priced at $800,000 to begin with, and not $400,000 or less like it was in 2000. Pure speculation, plain and simple. Whether it was investors or even just families, the psychology of speculation and the expectation of appreciation drove 90% of that price increase, not fundamentals. All buyers should arm themselves with this mentality: I don’t care what the comps are, and I don’t care what you paid. My baseline is a little more than $400,000 for that house and I have all the time in the world. It’s a new round of roulette now and the minimun bet is my starting price, not the amount you let ride and lost.
JES
ParticipantIf you can do the 6.2% savings at USAA as a non-military person you should do it. This company is solid. And I have no fears about Wamu going under anytime soon, and if they do our banking system would collapse if the FDIC didn’t make things right. Widespread panic and withdrawals.
JES
ParticipantSo long as the realtor makes the client aware of the market conditions I see no ethical problem with being a realtor. Clients should also be expected to do their own research, like logging on to a few sites like this to see what is going on in the market. And there’s always the small chance that most of us here will simply be wrong in our predictions and the market will actually rise. Regardless, since there are people buying in all market conditions, it only follows that we actually need honest realtors to help with some of these transactions. We shouldn’t broadly criticize all realtors and question how someone could actually live with themselves being one in this market.
JES
Participantcontraman, you are indeed a breath of fresh air!
JES
ParticipantSave the cross! I’d chain myself to it to prevent removal as well. Tell the ACLU to go fight for something useful, for once.
JES
ParticipantEven worse, he used propaganda to make his points. Here are some clips from the article from Steve Rodgers he mentions, from my earlier post on this site:
Here’s an interesting article from the UT today. Can someone tell me if any of these statements presented in the piece are true?
Union Tribune, SD Homes Section, Aug. 27th
–Paid Advertisement– !!!!
By: Steve Rodgers, CEO CA Prudential, San Diego1) Headline: Market Leveling, Still Strong
2) “There’s been talk of the RE bubble bursting…but realistically that’s not likely to happen”
3) “…even in a worst case scenario homeowners will lose no more than 7% of their homes values…”
4) “…an inconveinance, but not a crash by a long shot…”
5)”…so the rise we anticipate in existing home prices this year is actually a little above the high end of historic norms…”
6) Southern CA is adding 200-300,000 new residents per year.
7) SoCal will create 30-50,000 jobs in the next 2 years.
8) “…it is difficult to see a price decline in a job creating market like San Diego.”
9)New home sales are showing significant gains…
10) “…real estate is GAURENTEED to remain just as solid as ever…”JES
Participantpowayseller – Is this a no kidding email you received? If so, funny that he referenced the quotes from the UT. As we know now, those were paid advertisements from Prudential, not even a legit story. And the article containes numerous lies, starting with the headline.
JES
ParticipantNot sure if you know this from the previous thread, but USAA has a savings account with a 50k minimum that earns 6.2% for the first 6 months…
JES
ParticipantI personally know of a regional director of a building company in San Diego who received a $500,000 bonous two years ago. He also owns a few beach homes and land all around town.
August 28, 2006 at 10:35 AM in reply to: Biggest Drops in 2007 and 2008; housing will fall 50% nominal terms #33683JES
ParticipantMy ‘instincts’ are telling me there is still alot of demand out there, but that most of it is on the sidelines waiting to see how far prices go down. People go to open houses, look around, hear about price drops and leave with the intention of waiting it out.
It is also clear to me that current inventory levels far outnumber those that can afford to buy, even if they all choose to buy today. IMO price drops will cause a monthly rise in sales of homes on the way down, except for the beginning, so the drop will level off over time and be more pronounced in the early months. We may not be in the ‘economic’ beginning of the downturn now, which may have happened last summer, but we are surely in the ‘psychological’ beginning.
Psychologically, most people are just realizing this is happening and most will not be in any mood to ‘grab deals’ anytime soon. But once we see drops of say 15% or more, IMO some fence sitters will decide to buy, say next Spring or sooner. Psychology again. People will buy into the idea of a Spring bounce. But prices will continue to fall an addl 10-20% due to a worsening economy, ARM resets and rises in new listings that outpace sales.
IMO I am being conservative and here’s why:
-What if a very bad recession starts before next summer? Not only are we on the road to one already, but the possibility of war with Iran, Korea, an all out civil war in Iraq, Israeli/Arab war and continued terrorist strikes make it even more likely.
-What if none of the buyers on the fence decide to buy? So far, the news, the economy etc. have been relatively good and most still are still not buying. What happens when ARM resets, geopolitical and economic news rain down like the perfect storm? Would a 25% drop in prices be enough for you to put aside news of massive job losses, a recession or impending conflict?
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