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JES
ParticipantGood stuff sdrebear and I bet you are glad you are renting!
It’s clear to me that buyers don’t care about minor price reducations of 10, 20, even 30k right now and are only buying when sellers make huge discounts. Walk into the models at San Elijo and you will see that the new homebuilders have picked up on this and they are offering 100k+ discounts and financing just to unload properties. Will be interesting to see what happens here since many people need to sell!ParticipantI don’t talk about real estate anymore with family and local friends. If they own, they don’t want to hear about it, especially if you have cashed out like many of us and are presumably waiting for prices – their home prices – to fall. If they are selling, I also avoid getting in the middle, although I will make a few remarks about the current market conditions, some ideas, and then I shut up. If you tell them to lower the price, and they sell, they may hold it against you that they could have gotten more. If you advise that they keep the price where it is at, and they don’t sell, well, you get the point.
Since I cashed out earlier this year I’ve had a number of awkward conversations with family and friends about real estate, and most of the time they are completely close minded about what is actually happening. It’s purely psychological IMO. I tried referring a few to piggington, but noticed that they never checked out the site. Ironically, even if this thing crashes hard like many of us predict, I wont feel vindicated in any way, and I suspect that nobody will say that I hit it on the mark. If you cashed out you’re now an outsider, like an American citizen who leaves the country to gain citizenship somewhere else. Don’t expect that you can come back to the 4th of July parade, wave the American flag, and have everyone be happy about it. Very unusual situation I never thought I’d find myself in when I decided to sell. But I am content to let the chips fall where they may, try to help those close to me in subtle, non-offensive ways, and swoop in like a shark either here or elsewhere when everything hits the bottom!
ParticipantLook who has a book for sale. Anyone see a conflict of interest here?
http://www.randomhouse.com/doubleday/currency/catalog/display.pperl?isbn=9780385514347
ParticipantI suspect they received their media training from the former Iraqi information minister.
ParticipantIt is also curious how these forecasts always seem to predict a smoothing, a leveling, a slight up or downward trend. What a pleasant thought for homeowners! Even though my home has already gone down 5% I feel so much better knowing that it is just a short correction and that the market will soon go up again. One can sleep better at night knowing that their $800,000 house (bought with a 7-year interest only ARM, no money down) that is now worth $750,000 will someday return to the peak and beyond, albeit at a slow, peaceful rise over time. Like the ripples in the ocean the market glides along smoothly, always sturdy, always heading upward.
Looking down the street I’m not concerned about the 20+ homes that have been for sale for 6 months, all reduced, without a single offer. I’m not concerned about the fact that I live in a new community where 75% of the buyers used risky interest only ARMS and negative amortization loans. The BMWs, Mercedes and JAGs that populate the driveways of my ‘prestigious’ gated community in the hills are a sign of the regions wealth and the hard work of my neighbors, whom I have never actually met. The few homes that have for sale signs on the car and the house really don’t bother me either, after all I’m sure they are looking to upgrade their car. My wife and I work long hours and simply don’t have time to research the market or go onto piggington.com, but we do read the paper and there have been some reassuring articles as of late. Just today I saw the president of NAR quoted as saying that things are leveling and that prices will rise again. We’re actually thinking about taking out an equity loan and buying a rental property right now. There’s no better time than the present since there are some deals out there!
ParticipantThey should account for how their previous projections were wrong before they make more. And instead of providing us with the image he sees in his crystal ball, how about some solid analysis on why he thinks it will pan out this way. Like accounting for resetting ARMS for example! Businessweek seemed to think it was a big enough issue to put it on their cover recently, but this guy doesn’t even mention it.
ParticipantRoman,
Do you happen to work at Intel? Or perhaps Nokia?
I understand if you can’t reply:)
-JES
ParticipantIntel laid off almost everybody here a couple years ago and virtually shut down all operations at that time. Not much was left over. I used to sell high-tech equipment into that site and all business ceased for me. In short, they shut down the wireless LAN group here but left a few other smaller groups I believe.
ParticipantAssuming you are serious, you should read this chain of posts from April. Someone claims that Wisteria homes were selling for the high 600s. Also, in San Elijo you can get the Atherton and Luminera plans for 50k+ off and 4-3-0 financing. This is a 30-year rate at 6.7 or so, and they pay 4% of it your 1st year, 2% second year, then 6.7% fixed after. Luminera are the same size as the one you are looking at and can be had for the high 500s. Have you looked elsewhere in Carlsbad? Lots of people paid lots of $$ in Bressi = lots of trouble in the next few years. Other areas = no mello roos, less sales past 5 years etc. = more stable neighborhoods. Like Aviara, for example. Met a guy who bought in Bressi 3-years ago. His comments, “We stretched man, but this is the dream. I can’t afford the place but it will keep going up man.”
Previous Chain:
http://piggington.com/bressi_ranch_25_cheaper_than_a_year_agoSan Elijo:
http://www.sanelijohills.com/current_neighborhoods.phpParticipantThe odds of condos going up in price anytime soon are near zero, and the odds of them taking a significant drop are large. In fact, they are already dropping and much of that drop lags 3 months in the monthly reports. IMO there’s no good reason to buy right now. At least wait until early next year since it will only go down between now and then.
ParticipantWow!
I just pulled up the link below (web site that provides maps of areas with plotted homes for sale) and I looked at San Elijo. There are a number of 2000-2400 sqft. single family homes listed in the high 500s! Some may have power lines nearby.
ParticipantI haven’t looked in Bressi for a while, but with regards to Rancho Dorado I just pulled up some listings below. Consider that prices will likely crash further, but at 670k for an almost 2700 sqft., 4br home with a decent yard in that location I thought it looked like a deal. And there are alot of homes for sale in there, like everywhere. This one is a motivated seller too, so maybe you could get it for less.
(Sorry, I need to go back and learn how to create links!)
http://www.sanmarcoshills.com/page.cfm?page=HomeDetail&ID=456126
http://www.sanmarcoshills.com/page.cfm?page=HomeDetail&ID=456874
ParticipantI would also encourage potential Bressi buyers to consider the quality of homes, architecture, and general community aesthetics. Homes are jammed together with many garages opening up to alleys behing the home, streets are narrow, the architecture of neighboring homes often does not seem to flow IMO. From Palomar Airport Road you can see Spanish, colonial, ranch, and other style homes side by side in a manner that you will only see in SoCal. Also consider the high mello roos and HOA, the number of homeowners who paid high $$ and are teetering on financial ruin, the high number of resales and new homes for sale and the airport noise.
Compare all of this with nearby areas and you will never look back. Rancho Carillo next door is much nicer, and Rancho Dorado, a San Marcos community next door, is just as nice as Rancho Carillo with better prices. In Aviara in South Carlsbad you can get a 2800 sqft. home for 850-950, with no mello roos and HOA. A little higher than Bressi, but if you plan to stay for the long haul your mello roos and HOA savings will make this a cheaper purchase!
ParticipantIs it the case that even though the pros have already shorted stocks, there is still opportunity because very few are predicting the kind of crash and recession that powayseller and others are? The pros are not shorting in anticipation of a major crash and recession are they? That’s where your money is to be made if you are right and time it well.
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