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Jazzman
ParticipantA population decline may not be good for expanding economies, but economies, like populations, can’t expand for ever. Population declines a likely a natural phenomenon and rather that trying to prevent the them, ways need to be sought to minimize the impact. Expanding economies based on consumption is definitely finite.
ParticipantLooming Recession
All said and done home prices are silly in many part of the world, not just SD. A correction will come about when there is a recession, and a recession will come about some time in the next 1-3 years. I think all Piggs are probably Fed watchers, which is central to so much forecasting. A combination of serious problems in China, asset over-valuations and the Fed’s eventual tightening is apparently going to bring about a lot of volatility soon. The longer they put off raising rates, the more nervous they appear, and the more volatile things will become IMO. Wildly fluctuating commodity prices, devalued currencies and increased borrowing costs in EM’s plus a recession in Asia are forming like a dark cloud. Something has to give. Let’s face it, China is a huge force now so coupled with the US there is double the chance of things going wrong with the global economy.Home Price Correction
I believe the likelihood of a home price correction sits somewhere between very likely and inevitable. That realization will fall sharply into focus when rates normalize (revert to historical averages). At the moment, values are being measured by the ‘monthly nut’, so actual values are considered irrelevant by the Fed. They believe levels or personal indebtedness are more important, and I presume that means since subprime is not present we have less to fear.Financially Savvy
If you look back over the last twenty years, I’m guessing home prices have increased three to fours time higher than wages. I know that to be the case in some markets so it’s sure to be true to an extent in CA. I would not buy now. I wouldn’t have bought even in 2012. Prices would need to drop quite a lot before I’d consider buying in CA, either for a home or as a investor. Simply put, prices are silly so ‘caveat emptor’ your personal balance sheet before you look beneath the bonnet of your dream home.ParticipantI had to check the date on this post to make sure it wasn’t an echo from the past. Are home prices silly right now? No. What’s silly, even absurd if the mood takes you, is that buyers remain prepared to pay silly prices. I’m continuously informed that I’m the silly one for thinking such nonsense. The logic is that if buyers continue to buy homes, they must be affordable. How is that silly (double entendre)?
ParticipantYou can actually buy bomb shelters on the cheap at the moment, and I don’t think the rich are any more savvy about remote outposts than anyone else. There is no ‘better’ place to go (if you exclude the universe). The best place to be is a mindset of prevention and preparedness.
ParticipantLike a Victorian bather who prefers to remove her garments when no one is looking, this economic collapse in the making (if that is what it is) seems to have mastered the illusion of levitation. It stands to reason the phenomenal Chinese growth rate was unsustainable, and that it global influence would be felt. That commodities took a hit is probably no more than a over-due correction. Gold still seems way above its historic price. Oil suffers high production cost yet we bemoan its demise in the face of the effect it has had on global warming. Let’s rejoice that one. Nervousness in inter bank lending in interesting. Over-valued US stocks and QE has been an unfolding drama that share much in common with the Victorian bather. It will be interesting to see how Chinese stocks and housing bubble are master-minded by state capitalism, and how much understatement covers up the damage. How you quantify Greece and EM woes depends on what you see as the impending disaster. Will is be global, or asymmetrical? A crash, or a long drawn out battle of wills with central banks at the helm? Or is everything as ‘normal’ as it ever was, but we are just fixated with hanging onto what we don’t own and can’t have?
Participant[quote=poorgradstudent]He’ll be a circus during these early stages that don’t really count. He won’t actually file financial paperwork and will drop out eventually.
The big issue for Republicans will be how the mainstream candidates react to Trump pandering to the base.[/quote]
He is a protagonist stool pigeon, dressed up as an opening clown act. He’s carrying the mantle, albeit upside down, maybe to divert attention and allow time for the troops to rally behind the scenes, while Hilary exhausts her ammo. The question is whether that rally will hit the ground running, or fall flat on its face. I personally think the US would be better off becoming part of the UK again, or at least appoint Prince William as king. On second thoughts Harry might be a better choice.July 29, 2015 at 9:00 AM in reply to: My Investment property not selling: List for rent/for sale at the same time? #788370ParticipantWhat is the asking price and rent?
ParticipantWe spend our money.
We spend out time.
And when we’re all spent.
We ask for an extension.Participant“Prices return to normal” may be relevant to some places but many other places remain over-valued. Weather and other factors may have some bearing, but that is not the whole story. Neither is it just about the culture surrounding home ownership. There are some generalizations such as housing bubbles occur predominantly in the English speaking world. That points to the relationship between banks (and central banks), governments, and industry but those vary within the English speaking world. Psychology plays its part. Lust and fear make people irrational, but I don’t think that is peculiar to the Anglo gene, if such a thing exists. Social and economic factors play some role here. The causes of the bubble are complex, and the aftermath equally complex. Research indicates low interest rates do have a delayed affect on prices, but supply more so. However, this still doesn’t explain the often large regional disparities. Desirability, supply, incentives, ownership culture, institutional culture, and psychology are all in the mix and interact with each other. It is interesting that from many of the responses above Piggs seem happy with their lot. But that may be due to the demographics of Piggs. I wonder what the broader consensus is?
Participant[quote=spdrun]Dallas is a pestilential landlocked shithole with a climate that would make me want to jump off a bridge. San Diego is not. Nice try though.
It’s now 4:45 am in NYC, 1:45 am in San Diego.
In San Diego, it’s 65 out.
In New York, it’s 70.
In Dallas, it’s 81 g-d damn degrees, 75% humidity. At 3:45 am. Not fit for pigs, let along humans who want to sleep without being drenched in sweat and waking up wanting to punch themselves in the nuts.[/quote]
I take it you don’t like Dallas. I’m sure many a Texan would find your observations interesting. Whatever your feelings towards Dallas (or anywhere) they don’t account for the disparity in prices across the US, or other parts of the world. Many people find British weather unbearably miserable. Perhaps Rich can grace us with a misery index to see how it tracks home price indices. The only link is when the penny (or small fortune in this case) drops and you realize how much you over-paid for your modest home.[img_assist|nid=25351|title=London vs UK, vs US prices|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=259]
Participant[img_assist|nid=25345|title=San Diego|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=235]
[img_assist|nid=25344|title=Dallas|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=239]
[img_assist|nid=25346|title=San Diego SFH 3 bed $225k|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=263][img_assist|nid=25347|title=Dallas SFH 3 bed $225k|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=358]
[img_assist|nid=25348|title=Median Income San Diego|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=183]
[img_assist|nid=25349|title=Median Income Dallas|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=187]
Is that a camel I see in the dust bowl of the soCal dessert. Well they walk in a straight line in the parched lands of Texas. Best feature of the only SD home listed under $250k is a run down garage. That’s the price you pay to live in sunny soCal. But wait, median income in SD is $5,000 more than Dallas. Well that explains it then. The difference is what people continue to convince themselves of. That is what prevents the reality from being what it could be.
Participant[quote=AN]What is normal?[/quote] Shifting sand.
ParticipantI used to say to my wife the best thing about LA is the airport. It gets you far away from the place. The worst thing about LA is also the airport. When you arrive and have to rent a car and navigate those treacherous freeways it is no joke. It’s like driving along the Amalfi coast backwards in a truck blindfolded in the middle of a war. Your chances are better in Phnom Pehn during a festival. LA is a fine example of the oil industry dictating how we should live. There should be trains to Union Station from LAX every 15 minutes, and then a network of trains to all parts of LA. The city needs to stop sprawling and start condensing. Communities need to be built around live, work, and play. Homes need to be affordable. And stop growing grass everywhere. It’s the dessert FGS!
May 31, 2015 at 10:09 AM in reply to: China Hunting Fugitives Accused of Corruption – Many Are Living in US #786860Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]We have less need for corruption because we have an established system for former politicians to trade access to power for legitimate $ millions. There’s the revolving door to corporate jobs.
In some countries, a minister’s salary maybe a paltry $1000 per month. That’s why Singapore has zero tolerance but pays their officials the highest in the world. That started when they were poor.
Singapore always scores near the lowest in the corruption index.[/quote]
I think that might depend on which side of the fence you sit, and how legitimate you feel the $ millions paid are, and how legitimate you feel it is to access power in that way. Corruption is very much an ‘established system’ for doing business. That doesn’t make it any less corrupt. Anyway, as another poster said earlier, it isn’t all necessarily bad. Where lobbying fails democracy is when special interests gain concessions and profit to the unambiguous detriment of the populace. My opinion is that the failure of gun control legislation is a clear case in point. -
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