Aging population and housing

[admin]

Immigration is good. We should be glad that we don’t have a population decline problem… With increasing population comes economic growth and higher prices for our assets.

Look what is happening to Japan. Scary.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-09/abandoned-homes-haunt-japanese-neighborhoods

[barnaby33]

Meh should is the most dangerous word in the English language. Immigration was good. Not so much at this point, especially that of the illegal variety. Thinking that rising asset prices because of rising population is good, that’s how a virus reacts to it’s environment. No consideration of limits, but they exist.
Josh

[The-Shoveler]

A large part of the more recent Immigration is coming from Asia these days,

You may be very surprised they are not heading to Irvine or the more known Asian target towns.

Eastvale CA,

The town did not even exist three or so years ago, now it’s booming.

They also have a New Ranch-99 next to the Lowes and Costco in Corona (been there about a year).

[FlyerInHi]

Shoveler, yes, I submit to your keen observations of urban sprawl. I hate sprawl (like hate, hate, hate), but I have to deal with reality.

I think that the UC Riverside area will be a good growth area in the next couple decades. It’s a UC afterall and it will become more prestigious. Plus it’s near all the Asian neighborhoods further to the west.

[phaster]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Immigration is good. We should be glad that we don’t have a population decline problem… With increasing population comes economic growth and higher prices for our assets.

Look what is happening to Japan. Scary.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-09/abandoned-homes-haunt-japanese-neighborhoods%5B/quote%5D

something to consider when reading about RE in japan is their cultural/social idea that homes are disposable!!!!

basically in post WWII japan a home was built with the idea that a new one will take its place during the next generation

http://freakonomics.com/2014/02/26/why-are-japanese-homes-disposable-full-transcript/

so to a foreigner in-country seeing homes in various states of decay might seem shocking…

[Jazzman]

A population decline may not be good for expanding economies, but economies, like populations, can’t expand for ever. Population declines a likely a natural phenomenon and rather that trying to prevent the them, ways need to be sought to minimize the impact. Expanding economies based on consumption is definitely finite.

[FlyerInHi]

I feel like one day, countries will be competing for immigrants.

We are already competing for immigrants with high skills and/or large bank accounts.

Population decline is not bad, but a country must lower its ambitions well before it happens. Japan is in trouble and it’s getting late for them It’s the most indebted developed country. The rise of China is prompting more military spending. Unless japan accepts mass immigration it should learn to be a neutral country like Switzerland.

[CA renter]

[quote=barnaby33]Meh should is the most dangerous word in the English language. Immigration was good. Not so much at this point, especially that of the illegal variety. Thinking that rising asset prices because of rising population is good, that’s how a virus reacts to it’s environment. No consideration of limits, but they exist.
Josh[/quote]

Agree with this and Jazzman.

Growing populations are not necessarily good unless there are plentiful resources and a high demand for labor, etc.

Right now, we are dealing with dwindling resources, way too much pollution from our consumption economy, and a glut of labor at all levels (yes, the story about a shortage of STEM degrees is a myth).

http://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2014/03/the-myth-of-the-science-and-engineering-shortage/284359/

We don’t need more immigrants to burden our already-overburdened infrastructure — including roads, potable water supply, wastewater treatment facilities, schools, hospitals, prisons, etc. We only need immigrants who bring something that we need — money, talent (that can’t be done for a decent/fair wage by local workers), entrepreneurial skills, etc.

And can we finally let go of the ridiculous notion that rising asset prices are a good thing? They are only good for those who own assets (in actuality, they are only good for those who are selling assets or who will use them as collateral for self-liquidating debt). Those who are buying these assets, or those who own few assets, are harmed more than helped by rising asset prices.

[CA renter]

Brian, this is a good article about the immigration crisis in Germany.

Of course, the numbers are different here, but the issue of potential costs and benefits are the same.

Germany’s Immigration Challenge

[FlyerInHi]

CAr, there is no immigration crisis in Germany. It’s an opportunity.

This is what William Swing, director-general of the International Organization for Migration and former U.S. ambassador said yesterday:

There is no question that a lot of the policies today are being driven by an unprecedented anti-migrant sentiment afoot in the world, not just in Europe, but in other countries.

It’s driven by the fears of the 2008-2009 economic downturn, when perhaps one’s going to lose one’s job. It’s driven by the 9/11 — the post-9/11 security syndrome, where people are afraid, obviously, of terrorists coming in.

It’s also driven by a sense of the loss of personal or national identity. And I think, with all of these, there are ways to address this. These are stereotypes that don’t really meet the reality that, historically, migration has always been overwhelmingly positive. And we need to get back to a positive narrative in the public, rather than the toxic narrative that we have now.

And to do this, we’re going to have to help everyone to learn to manage inexorably growing cultural, ethnic, religious diversity within our countries.

CAr, we will see in 15 years how Germany is doing. I predict that Germany will become even more of the economic powerhouse of Europe. My cousin married a German women and they now live in Indiana. But I advised them to keep their triplex in Berlin because real estate prices will eventually get to parity to Paris and London. Berlin is a young dynamic city full of potential, more so than any other city in Europe.

[bewildering]

[quote=FlyerInHi]These are stereotypes that don’t really meet the reality that, historically, migration has always been overwhelmingly positive. And we need to get back to a positive narrative in the public, rather than the toxic narrative that we have now.[/quote]

Wow. Ask any Aboriginal about the positive benefits of migration, or Native American.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=bewildering]
Wow. Ask any Aboriginal about the positive benefits of migration, or Native American.[/quote]

That bridge has already been crossed. Now they have casinos, air conditioning and Christianity.

[CA renter]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=bewildering]
Wow. Ask any Aboriginal about the positive benefits of migration, or Native American.[/quote]

That bridge has already been crossed. Now they have casinos, air conditioning and Christianity.[/quote]

Even with their casinos and Christianity, they are not “winning,” Brian. Ask anyone who works on the reservations.

I agree that controlled immigration, where the quantity and quality of new immigrants are carefully regulated, can be a good thing. But open borders with countries that have massive numbers of poor/unskilled people who stubbornly insist on clinging to their own cultures (as opposed to trying to assimilate) when living in another country is not a good thing.

One thing that liberals/progressives get horribly wrong is thinking that you can have open borders (without any controls) and a generous social safety net. The two are not compatible.

[SK in CV]

[quote=CA renter]
One thing that liberals/progressives get horribly wrong is thinking that you can have open borders (without any controls) and a generous social safety net. The two are not compatible.[/quote]

I read a lot of liberal/progressive publications. I almost never see open borders supported. It’s not totally absent, but it is not a standard part of any liberal/progressive agenda. It rarely gets mentioned as a serious policy item.

[Anonymous]

[quote=CA renter]

[…] But open borders with countries that have massive numbers of poor/unskilled people who stubbornly insist on clinging to their own cultures (as opposed to trying to assimilate) when living in another country is not a good thing.[/quote]

True, it’s not a good thing.

Fortunately we don’t have that scenario here in the US.

[Author]

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