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Jazzman
Participant[quote=briansd1]
Jazzman, I hear you about being able to get good quality houses in France… But you’d be living in the French equivalent of Alabama (which is still much more desirable than the real Alabama, and without the distances you’d be closer to the big cities).[/quote]
Many years ago, I used to do the vendange (grape picking), and farmers and villages could be termed ‘rural’. But a visit a few years back, and this has changed. Gentrification is pretty much everywhere certainly for the prettier villages. Regions like Acquitaine is home to places like the Dordogne, with comparably well priced homes and is highly cultural. There are no big sprawling metropolises, but gently rolling countryside dotted with beautiful villages and towns. The term “rural” doesn’t apply in the US sense at all. The only place in Europe where time has apparently stood still is Romania, and of course we now cherish what we have lost.ParticipantMany would argue European subsidies and quotas are killing off the small farm holders, and thankfully “other” restaurants far out number fast food joints. I think the old world charm is still alive and well since preservation is very robust in Europe, even though it depends largely on tourism. The US has been more successful in exporting youth culture than an American way of life per se. I don’t think texting, tweeting, or being frantic is any more one country than picking one’s nose, and actually when it comes to fast food, it all originally came from Europe anyway. Healthy food is a class issue, for as long as a Big Mac is cheaper than a stick of celery.
Participant[quote=spdrun]OTOH, you get more bang for your “buck” with French taxes. Decent health care, public transit, better maintained infrastructure to name a very few things.[/quote]
True, but the tax regime is slanted towards middle class families, and can seem disproportionately high for some groups. Still, if it is not your main residence, you can still get many of the benefits without paying all the taxes.ParticipantNo doubt in my mind Europeans know how to live much better, but then they have been at it for much longer. They should ban MacDonalds. You are starting to see the effects of fast food even on the French. Living aside, I’m still hunting for a home in France, and you just would not believe what you pay for the equivalent of a multi-million dollar estate in Montecito. For the price of a modest SFH in a modest neighborhood in SD, you can find fully restored 18C stone dwellings, landscaped gardens and woodlands near to medieval villages in beautiful regions, with a good standard of living. Paris, Megeve, CD are a different story, but there still is (comparative) value out there in truly inspiring parts of the world, just not anymore in CA IMO. US taxes are the only thing keeping me here.
Participant[quote=briansd1][quote=Jazzman]I’m paying 0.12% this year in Maui. Lowest in the US I believe. Maui competes with many of the tax havens around the world for those living off investments.[/quote]
What’s the median price of a house in Maui? I’ve never been there so I’m kinda curious about this piece of paradise.[/quote]
Homes: June of 2012 at a median price of $575,500. By comparison, the June 2011 numbers were at a median of $429,000, a 34% increase.
Condos: 121 June of 2012 with a median price of $373,990. The June 2011 numbers were at a median of $294,500. That translates to a 27% increase.
Highly suspect increases! May be when Larry Ellison bought Lanai, it skewed the numbers 🙂
You need to take things with a big pinch of Pacific sea salt. There’s a naive roguishness about RE here, which can work in your favor. We hammered a lender and secured a big discount. Properties sit for months. So it’s a wait, needle and pounce game.
Oahu is just plain daft, but there is some justification for high prices in Hawaii, since it is very beautiful and very remote.
Big Island is probably still hurting the most if you don’t mind Vog.
ParticipantSdr, half the story yes, but buyers need to be made aware of the full story. We know credit is difficult to obtain for many, unemployment is high, the economy uncertain so where is that alleged high demand coming from? Multiple offers on decent homes because there are so few. You are on the street so you know, but I’ve been there too–in multiple locations–and gave up things were so chronic.
ParticipantHe probably owns shares in the movie. Why else would be give the publicity …unless he’s a goof. He’s the bane of my life that man, and I won’t be in any rush to see this movie.
ParticipantI’m paying 0.12% this year in Maui. Lowest in the US I believe. Maui competes with many of the tax havens around the world for those living off investments.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Try to buy a decent home around here and then come back to tell us what you learned about weak demand.[/quote]
Don’t you mean tell us what you think about weak supply?
ParticipantI felt nostalgic reading this. I understand the negative equity dilemma faced by lenders, and home owners, but when viewed through the prism of the actual causes of the bubble and its ensuing collapse, sympathy joins the ranks of large deficits. One particular statement will rankle with many market watchers; “Washington is considering new mortgage regulations that would shift more responsibility for bad loans away from taxpayers and investors and toward banks.” What an admission!
To my mind, the “conveyor belt” was wholesale securitization of mortgages, and not the move up market.
Also important is the high failure rate of loan modifications estimated at 53%.
I bought in a new development in Maui, which recently seems to be doing OK. A few vacation buyers, but the majority appears to be FTBs persuaded with tempting offers of “$1,000 gets you in”. When you speak with these buyers it is very clear many have very little understanding of the market, because bubbles, cheap credit, and high prices are the new normals, and is all they (FTBs) know.
The problem is the huge emphasis on home ownership, and the importance placed on its role in the economy. The wider correction which is the lost decade being talked about, is the housing market finding it’s rightful place and role.
July 8, 2012 at 10:32 AM in reply to: Signal for recovery in housing & the economy in general #747476ParticipantYou still need to look at who those cash buyers are and what their goals are. Properties were cash-flowing positive a long time ago in many parts of the country, where home prices are so much cheaper, and a 5-10% further decline is not calamitous anyway. I think you’ll find yield chasers comprise a healthy portion of those cash buyers, and they won’t all have the luxury of waiting for an uptick in prices.
You only know you’ve hit bottom after consecutive months of appreciation, discounting any seasonal blips. This market is going to be harder to tell when that happens, since we’re probably in for a long flat period, which doesn’t signal a recovery necessarily, but that the worst is over.
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Than what was I doing when I said it wasnt a good time to buy? Was I dishonest then also? If not how do you explain this abrupt change from honesty to dishonesty?[/quote]
You said “it wasn’t a good time to buy”? I beg your pardon, I thought you were intimating the opposite. I totally agree with you, and have also said it isn’t a good time to buy, and you’ll forgive me for saying I thought you weren’t too happy when I did. But whatever! I guess we owe you a big thanks for bringing to our attention that Mira Mesa is clearly a place for buyers to avoid like the plague.Participant[quote=sdrealtor]I used a little hyperbole to get people talking about RE again on this blog. It worked. What is going on out there can be labeled whatever one wants to. Houses priced at or close to recent closed comps are selling quickly with multiple offers. Prices are going up and its hard to even get a decent house. Saying its not a good time to buy is equally emotive. If prices continue going up, folks who waited things out will look back with regret. If they dont go up and rates stay level while inventory improves they will feel redeemed. I’m out in the streets on this one and my guy says the former. Only time will tell but we will get to discuss it all in excruciating detail. Isnt this fun?[/quote]
Saying it is not a good time to buy is honest, because I have no vested interest. If a fireman says homes are “on fire” that is also honest. When a Realtor says it …well, he can’t really claim to be solely an agent provocateur, because most realize he is likely defending his livelihood.Participant“49% of respondents believe now is a good time to buy, down from 56% last quarte…”
“60% cite low inventory as a primary reason not to buy this year, down from 63% last quarter…”
“64% of all respondents had said they would be “disciplined” in a bidding war, paying only a little more…”
So buyer interest is waning, with low inventory being a probable cause, yet most would still pay over asking. This is why predictions are so useless.
You can’t define “on fire”, because it is emotive and belongs to world of hyperbole. The only important thing to understand is low rates and inventory are driving this, which does not make it a good time to buy, but most don’t realize that.
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