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spdrun.
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July 15, 2012 at 9:05 AM #19971July 15, 2012 at 2:03 PM #748058
Jazzman
ParticipantI felt nostalgic reading this. I understand the negative equity dilemma faced by lenders, and home owners, but when viewed through the prism of the actual causes of the bubble and its ensuing collapse, sympathy joins the ranks of large deficits. One particular statement will rankle with many market watchers; “Washington is considering new mortgage regulations that would shift more responsibility for bad loans away from taxpayers and investors and toward banks.” What an admission!
To my mind, the “conveyor belt” was wholesale securitization of mortgages, and not the move up market.
Also important is the high failure rate of loan modifications estimated at 53%.
I bought in a new development in Maui, which recently seems to be doing OK. A few vacation buyers, but the majority appears to be FTBs persuaded with tempting offers of “$1,000 gets you in”. When you speak with these buyers it is very clear many have very little understanding of the market, because bubbles, cheap credit, and high prices are the new normals, and is all they (FTBs) know.
The problem is the huge emphasis on home ownership, and the importance placed on its role in the economy. The wider correction which is the lost decade being talked about, is the housing market finding it’s rightful place and role.
July 15, 2012 at 2:59 PM #748059bearishgurl
Participant[quote=Jazzman] . . . I bought in a new development in Maui, which recently seems to be doing OK. A few vacation buyers, but the majority appears to be FTBs persuaded with tempting offers of “$1,000 gets you in”. When you speak with these buyers it is very clear many have very little understanding of the market, because bubbles, cheap credit, and high prices are the new normals, and is all they (FTBs) know. . . .[/quote]
I thought it was a good article, too, Jazzman. But I honestly don’t think there is a huge percentage of homeowners “married to their house” in CA. I don’t think the established parts of the state turned over as fast as other parts of the nation, due to Prop 13 and its progeny. Many of the “heirs” who “inherited” these properties have no employment skills or net worth in their own right and couldn’t/can’t qualify to move up. In any case, they wouldn’t (and shouldn’t) “move up” due to having artificially low property taxes, which is all they can afford. Granted, a small percentage of ignorant “heirs” have mortgaged their parent’s property to death and may be in danger of losing it to foreclosure, but I believe these owners are in the minority. I have no doubt that there will be many more “Prop 13 heirs” (Prop 58) in the coming years who will elect to buy their siblings out (if they have any) and raise their families in their childhood home.
There is absolutely no cheaper way to live in CA, ESP in a coastal county.
The vast majority of the owners in CA who currently still have negative equity purchased in the last eight years, likely with little or zero down and an “exotic” purchase $$ situation or purchased in the last 15 years and refied/HELOCed their property to death, IMHO.
The massive new-tract developments in the interior counties of CA which are more than 40 mi from a decent job base are screwed, IMO. This includes the majority of those tracts situated within the counties of No RIV, SB, Stanislaus, interior Monterey, Fresno, SE Placer, Merced, Madera, San Joaquin and NE Sacramento Counties.
The recent new developments in the above counties also advertised in Alameda Co, LA Co and out-of-state billboards and radio stations “$3,000 gets you in” and “Vets 0 down.”
I envision the state’s eternally-distressed interior tract developments possibly eventually being turned over to HUD for Section 8 housing.
I’m divided on whether a High Speed Rail running parallel to SR-99 will bring well-paying jobs thru some of these counties. The jury is still out here, and, in any case, the completion of this proposed project is many years away. Perhaps CSU Merced and CSU Fresno will churn out hundreds of graduates with skills highly sought after which may eventually encourage tech and biotech companies to build campuses there (on much cheaper land).
My personal experience with natives of these counties (as well as those from the other side of the sierras) is that they would *prefer* to stay in their county of origin for a lifetime (to be near family) but cannot find decent paying jobs so migrate to the CA job centers near the coast for employment.
July 15, 2012 at 4:35 PM #748068spdrun
ParticipantWho actually wants to live in inland CA? At that point, you may as well be in Poenis or Lost Wages and pay lower income taxes. Flights from PHX or LAS to SAN are $50-$75 one way if you buy at the right time, and take about an hour. You can be at the beach in less time than it takes to crawl there in CA traffic.
People are discovering that fact too late.
July 15, 2012 at 8:06 PM #748088Anonymous
GuestBanks lured consumers with low interest rates that later turned much more expensive and blew up monthly payments, eventually helping to cause the housing crash.
Is this what happened? I don’t recall low interest rates that later turned much more expensive. I recall thinking that they would, but the interest rates just kept going lower.
July 15, 2012 at 8:08 PM #748089spdrun
Participant^^^
Teaser. Rates.
Several points below prime that reset to above-prime after x years.
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