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ibjames
ParticipantI hope you are right capeman. When I look at the numbers I can’t help but feel they have to by 30% or more. With tighter lending standards there is no way to finance it. No one has a down payment, where can it go but down? I mean.. DOWN!
Participantthat is sad, I too will donate
ParticipantI know what you are talking about, it’s not hard to see the emotion that is in this transaction for you. I would try to pull the comps from houses that are as similar as possible and see what you come up with. Leaping can be fun when it’s a fancy refridgerator or tv, a house is a little different. You’ve made it this far being smart and financially savvy so follow through.
Even if you don’t buy, why is renting a nice place so much worse than owning? I have to admit, a big ocean view is hard to pass up 🙂
May 4, 2007 at 11:28 AM in reply to: “Those who say the prices are going to go down 50 percent are just yahoos who are not looking at the whole picture,” #51855ParticipantThere was a thread here where the increase in loan terms was discussed. With housing prices being so high. A 10 -20 year increase in the loan will be a drop in the bucket. That means people will be paying equity, which interest only loans didn’t do at all. If people could barely afford interest only, how are they going to afford a loan that actually pays equity? Japan had 100 year loans, it still didn’t help. I’ll try and search for that thread.
The doom and gloom you often refer to is people trying to figure out where the economy is headed. If you look at what people often talk about, they talk about how to invest so if inflation does come in large amounts your money is protected. If it’s moving your cash into gold or in foreign currency etc. I think your perception is a bit skewed.
ParticipantI got pulled away from work, so I will have to find the recorded version 🙁
May 3, 2007 at 11:14 AM in reply to: “Those who say the prices are going to go down 50 percent are just yahoos who are not looking at the whole picture,” #51720ParticipantI am not an econ wiz at all, but to me it seems easy to see that something has to change. Since it won’t be wages, (maybe I’m going to get a 20k raise? That probably still wont’ be enough) it has to be something else.
To act like this is normal is absurd. People were flocking all over the place to buy housing, like wood is a scarce commodity and house building will forever be stopped by the year 2006. Greed and stupidity ran rampant across the board. People not caring because they qualified for the loan and we’ll take care of it in the future. Well the future is almost here. Don’t act like people were making calculated decisions because it was far from calculated.
Look at the charts, not gradual price increases, obscene price increases. Even GM is feeling the pinch from the crazy real estate market. Sub prime lenders closing their doors, bailout programs starting to emerge. The wave is now on the horizon. I’m sitting in the lineup looking out.. turning my board to the shore getting ready to start paddling to catch the big wave.
I don’t know the percentage of change, but it’s impossible for people to think it’s going to change just a little bit. When dual income no children white collar families cannot buy a place without buying a gun to live there. Something has to change.
Sling mud all you want. Bitter, pessimistic, whatever. I know that a lot on this board looked at the loans, and stated that it is crazy to put yourself in that position. It’s called using your brain, too bad you are sitting on yours.
Participantdamn, $799,000? I must have not made myself clear. Perhaps I should be looking at El Cajon forever. I’m hoping to get into a house around 400k tops. That’s why I’m hoping there is a big crash. I currently rent a 2 bedroom for 1650. It would seem silly to me to go up to a 3k mortgage when I could rent for almost half. You guys don’t think prices will get down there?
I couldn’t live off of Ingraham either.
ParticipantYou just pulled an indiana jones style escape, sliding under the door before it closes down on you. Dust yourself off and crack the whip for another adventure my friend
ParticipantYeah, I live near Dawes and Felspar and would just like to move a few blocks north. Doesn’t have to be anything out of the ordinary. Just a nice place not next to the bars.
ParticipantNice, it makes sense. I just wonder when the real changes will start. It is such a slow process. He did say possible declines for 10 years, so it shows he is not forcasting doom and gloom. I just want to see more results. Stuff like this on big sites is a good thing for the whole scenario. The more media coverage this thing gets the more people will be wary of housing.
I work with a fellow that swore to me that I should be getting an interest only loan and getting in before I’m priced out forever. He recently sent me an email calling me a jerk (jokingly) because he is starting to see the decline I was talking about and he called me “foolish” about earlier. I’ve talked to other people and everyone is nervous now, before you would talk about it and I would bite my tongue because I didn’t want to be the dumb one in the group because I thought prices could actually go down in California. Now everyone talks about how pricing is going to drop. The more coverage the happier I am!
ParticipantIn some areas I would say that maybe you are correct. In other areas rent and prices are way off. I pay 1650 and my place would sell for probably a million. I don’t live in North County though.
Some people really specialize in that area and I’m sure they can help you on that
April 23, 2007 at 10:27 AM in reply to: Emotion thwarting housing bear market . . . . for now #50853Participantmy wife and I went around looking at all the different for sale signs in the PB area, taking the little sheets of paper with pricing info. The prices really have to dive to make anything affordable. I just have to remember that fundamentals have to prevail
ParticipantWhen I read this post I don’t know if I should laugh or stick up for other piggingtons. In all honesty I know that I am one of the people that wishes to see foreclosures rise and prices fall. For flippers to fall flat on their faces and fraudsters to go to jail.
If this market stablizes, and this is the new trend. There will be a population decrease for sure. As my wife and I will be one of the many white collar professionals that loads up the uhaul for another area that’s affordable. Even though we make 120k+/yr, we can’t afford anything that makes sense.
My college roomie who loves SD more than anywhere and is basically a walking tour guide for SD has also admitted he has thought about moving, another white collar professional gone. I’m sure there would be others to follow.
How is that sustainable?
The funny thing about all of this is the attacking of both SDRealtors. Who often present data to people like me that many times isn’t what we want to hear. Prices sustaining, things not declining like they thought they would. Real data as they are out there to witness it first hand.
Enough attacks already, people took loans they couldn’t manage. (I almost did the same, until I really looked at the numbers) SDRealtors and anyone else. You shouldn’t feel the need to justify yourselves. Everyone that has been here for a while respects and appreciates your opinion already. You have nothing to prove.
I too find it funny that “take a chance” goes in line with buying a house. Some things I’m not willing to “take a chance” with.
ParticipantI’m beginning to wonder if we are going to see a rapid decline after all. It’s interesting and scary to see what lies for us down the road
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