[greekfire]

The older I get the more I think the Dems and Republicans are in it together. Aside from some fundamental differences on a few topics, they both have the same objective – improving or maintaining their grip on power.

On the surface, it would appear that Pelosi’s visit undermined the White House’s efforts in how it deals with a terrorist-harboring state such as Syria. However, the more I think about it, the more I believe that this visit may be setting the stage for some sort of good cop-bad cop negotiation tactics later on down the road, even perhaps as they pertain to relations with Iran.

I feel that everything we are doing, from a broader military and political policy standpoint, is done with an eye towards confronting Iran…either diplomatically or militarily. Defeating/weakening Iran is a must if we are to win the war on terror.

[greekfire]

I plan on being there for my first meet-down. I guess Today’s Pizza and Salad is better than yesterday’s. At least the salad is anyways.

[greekfire]

sdr-
I may be wrong, but I’d be willing to bet that the demographic you are speaking of, the one that earns $125k-$200k per year or more, is in the minority. This figure seems to be well above the median income ($52,192 per household SD County in 2005 adjusted for inflation – SANDAG) of the North County Coastal area, and many of the surrounding areas.

Maybe you have some concrete data that shows what percent of households make this much, but I would bet it is not that high. I estimate that the majority of household incomes in SoCal are well below your figure and perhaps many of these households are living off credit, which is the new second job these days. Either that or they took advantage of the stated income aspect of the loan process that was so prevalent in the past few years. Is this where you got your figures from?

[greekfire]

I personally feel that analyzing the cost to rent vs the cost to buy, both short and long term, is the best fundamental way to view the RE market.

Using percent income or monthly expenditure calculations brings far too many variables into the equation and are based on the assumption that every person places a similar value/percentage on the property that they sleep in on a regular basis. Some people might place a higher or lower premium on this, depending on a number of variables.

Would you recommend the same for purchasing a vehicle? Some might find the need to spend a bit more (or less) on their vehicles for various reasons. The same goes for any other personal asset (retirement, life insurance, etc.). Why would purchasing a home be any different?

Renting and owning a home, on the other hand, are the only two competitors when it comes to a home. It is reasonable to expect that these two competitors would fall under the forces of supply and demand, and would compete against each other for customers.

[greekfire]

If you think you might be relocated to Camp Pendleton, I’d check out Carlsbad or Oceanside. Carlsbad has a much better reputation in terms of schools, location, education, etc. Carlsbad is also just a few freeway exits south of Camp Pendleton.

You basically have two conflicting feelings going on right now:
1. You are smart and KNOW that home prices are overly inflated.
2. You have that nesting, “I want to own my own space”- type of feeling.

The next question comes to time frame. If you know you are going to stay there long-term, the greater weight you will place on feeling #2 above.

My wife and I are in a similar position to you and your husband in many regards. We don’t make as much as you both do, however we are eager to purchase our own home and experience the American dream of home ownership. We want to re-landscape the front yard, put a new deck and patio out back, invite friends and family over, and all that other good stuff.

Enter the reality of things. A typical home that you are looking to purchase was roughly half the price it is now around 5-8 years ago. Many homes are triple the price now than they were before. You will hear from countless kibitzers out here that home prices just continue to rise. The real estate propaganda machine has succeeded in producing this level of thinking.

If you purchase a home now, there are better than reasonable chances that it will lose 10-20% of it’s purchase value. This is not a scientific figure and nobody really knows what this crazy market is going to do. However, just ask yourself if you can live with knowing you bought a $500k home now that may sell for $400k a year or two from now. I’d like to plant my own Bacopas, Alyssum, and Hibiscus as much as the next person, but not at that price.

Interest rates won’t likely have as much of an affect on your decision because you have a down payment and make good money…you can probably afford to pay the loan(s) off early if you wanted to. So waiting a bit (as interest rates rise) won’t be as much of a detractor.

My personal opinion would be to plan on renting for another 1-2 years. Find a nice home that was purchased many years ago. One that you know doesn’t require a huge monthly payment because the owners bought well before prices got out of control. You might even luck out like we did and find one that is not as well maintained but costs a lot less. We are renting a 3bd/2ba, 1700sf detached home in north Carlsbad for $1800/mo. We have no HOA or Mello Roos fees, either. I even converted the garage to an office and run my small business from it. In the meantime, open up some high-yielding, high-liquidity accounts and invest your excess savings there. It’s better to earn 5% than to lose 1%.

[greekfire]

Perry has a point. If you want to dance, you have to pay the band. Blaming Greenspan now is nothing but plain old finger pointing. They should have said something 2 or 3 years ago, after we had weathered the dot com but and 9/11, and none of this would have happened. Instead, they let him and the FED over-prime the pump until it was too late. I also don’t think you can blame all the sub-prime lenders and brokers. They weren’t the ones who lied or overstated their income. That’s not to say that there weren’t some unethical lenders and brokers out there, however.

[greekfire]

A former colleague of mine scooped up a foreclosure in the Rancho del Oro area of Oceanside for $189k in 1997. Although this is in Oceanside, it is a family-oriented neighborhood and as nice as any you’d find in other cities.

To say that home values won’t come back down to this level may be correct, but it is not entirely impossible. We’ve been so desensitized by overly high housing prices that we forgot what a regular deal looks like. It’s sort of like gas prices.

This same home, after some improvements, has a Zestimate of $514k…roughly 2.7 times what it was worth 10 years ago. I know that Zestimates aren’t accurate, but it can sometimes be used as a ballpark figure. The point is that things have gotten out of whack and are bound to come back to trend levels.

[greekfire]

If I had my way, I’d probably hedge my bets and own both. 🙂

Instead of an oil well, though, I’d rather own a company that deals with ethanol production, servicing, etc.

[greekfire]

I am not a native SoCal, but from what I’ve heard Oceanside has taken great strides to clean up it’s image. In my opinion it has become one of those sleeper picks of North County Coastal. Like SD Realtor said, there are some nice areas, but it still is a military town with a connotation for higher crime and lower-rated schools than its neighbors.

We rent in north Carlsbad near the Oceanside city limits. The location is very convenient, with close freeway access and many stores nearby.

I know someone who bought in the Rancho del Oro area about ten years ago and has raised his family there ever since.

If you are renting and work from home, you could probably find some good deals in Oceanside, as compared to other areas further south that might charge a higher rent premium.

I would do a search for nearby stores, schools, and the like to get a feel for where they are in relation to your target location. Even though you work from home, like I do, you still need to go to stores to pick things up. Reasonably quick freeway access was a big one for us.

One other downfall to being close to Camp Pendleton is hearing the various maneuvers taking place on base. For the past few weeks we have heard what appears to be bombs going off all day long. I talked to a friend who lives around the Poinsettia Av area of Carlsbad and he said he could hear it all the way down there. From our place it sounded like a loud central heater turning on. I don’t want to know how it sounds closer to the base. These sounds have not occurred in the past few days or so, however.

Best of luck in your search. I fell in love with North County Coastal from the first day I visited it almost 10 years ago.

[greekfire]

DrChaos, do not confuse policy action with a lack of an agenda. Just because a group stresses a change in policy does not mean that they don’t have an angle. Everyone has an angle. Not only is there money to be made in research, but also in various other forms of environmental studies such as EIRs, EISs, and the like. Again, I am not saying that these are bad, per se. I am just saying that like engineers who look to benefit from roads being built, there are also environmentalists also looking to ensure that the environment is not adversely affected.

[greekfire]

PD – I never had wine come so close to coming out of my nose until I read your comment about Perry’s girlfriend having “guy equipment”. LMFAO.

One thing that does not get mentioned enough in the whole global warming argument is the phenomenon of negative feedback loops. This basically centers around the world’s oceans and how they are a huge, natural buffer to drastic climatic changes.

It basically works like this: The temperature rises, evaporates more water, which then forms more clouds. The increase in cloud cover blocks the sun’s radiation from hitting the earth, thus cooling it (negative feedback).

The next logical step in the discussion goes to the topic of incoming solar radiation (short wave) vs. exiting radiation from the earth (long wave). The earth emits long wave radiation that gets trapped by clouds. That’s why cloudy evenings are typically warmer than non-cloudy ones, and why it can get so cold in the desert at night…there are no clouds to trap the long wave radiation.

So does a blockage of incoming short wave radiation offset a blockage of outgoing long wave radiation? I’ll let the scientists figure this one out.

I think I fall somewhere in the middle of the global warming debate. I believe that mankind DOES have the ability to affect global climatic changes (contrary to Rush Limbaugh). However, I don’t feel those changes are as extreme as some would have us believe (contrary to Al Gore). Do not be fooled. Just as those on the right might have an agenda to disregard the global warming argument (oil production, development, etc.); those on the left also have an agenda to propagate the very same argument (research, funding, etc.).

My advice: read with a jaundiced eye.

PS: The effects of melting glaciers and it’s effects on fresh and salt water oceanic currents also plays a role in this debate. Perhaps we can save this for another thread. 🙂

Sincerely,

Piggington’s ENVIRO-Almanac for the Blankety Blank (fill in the blanks)

-sort of has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?

[greekfire]

I don’t know enough historical info to know if these are good numbers or not. I did check get these numbers from http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/index.html that were produced by Jim the Realtor:

January 1 through February 28
Year__Total Listings__ # sold/pending by 2/28___%
2004_____5,030_____________3,070__________61%
2005_____5,392_____________2,016__________37%
2006_____7,950_____________1,442__________18%
2007_____7,588_____________1,074__________14%

Although listings are down by 5%, sales are down by 34%. This tells me that there is a high supply and low demand, which should translate into continued downward pressure on prices. Would this be a fair assessment?

[greekfire]

Interesting opinions. Partly based on fact, partly based on witches-brew. I am fascinated in various types of modeling and I like the fact that he understands there are countless variables involved. Although I don’t necessarily subscribe to his 8.6 year cycle, I did add the 2.15 sub-cycle dates to my Outlook calendar. I think it will be an interesting way to see if this theory plays out over time.

[greekfire]

The point of the thread was to show general hypocrisy that occurs in politics, in this case on the left. It would be similar to hearing Mark Foley (16 year old page scandal) proselytizing about moral Christian values.

I understand that everyone makes mistakes, but you must also lead by example if you are to get your message across. It’s like an ex-convict that speaks to school children about the consequences that come with breaking the law. It would be a different story if that same ex-convict is still dealing crack rock on the side, however.

Al Gore’s message about being environmentally aware and conserving energy is a good one, it just doesn’t carry nearly as much weight coming from him.

[greekfire]

Perry, I like the old spin-technique to a slide-step maneuver. Are you sure you aren't a politician? I studied the environment in my undergrad days and I personally think it is an issue that we just can't poo-poo about. However, the message that many of the elitists (on both sides) provide just does not resonate with me and many other average Americans because they simply do not practice what they preach.

Regarding population growth, I am in favor of smart, responsible growth. I even have a website devoted to the issue of population called PopulationWar.com (http://populationwar.com/). There are articles related to population growth as well as a forum to sound off on. – shameless plug :-)…I need some traffic!

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