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GoUSC
ParticipantI think whomever purchase the REO paid too much as well. That part of Bay Park isn’t all that nice really.
ParticipantI love BP. It’s quiet, yet close enough to the action. The majority of people are very down to earth. Just a great place to live. Unfortunately the school system does suck. Fortunately doesn’t impact me as I am single and the girlfriend and I have no plans for kids or marriage anytime soon.
ParticipantPull all the comps that have sold in that neighborhood in the past three years. Take equivalent homes that have sold in the past year and deduct 30% (give or take). That’s what you should pay for the house.
Just because your “gut” says it’s a good deal doesn’t mean it is. Don’t fall into the “Costco Trap” in that just because you think you are getting a great deal because of the situation (aka being at Costco). Look at what the comps tell you.
ParticipantNo worries…I am a block from the corner of Chicago and Baker on Baker. Not the canyon side so my back yard looks into the neighbors backyard. The owner of my house paid WAY too much ($700k) with the hope to flip after a minimal remodel. It sat on the market at $899k for six months with not one offer. I rented it about a year ago for $2000 a month. However I paid for 6 months in advance. Regardless, he is planning on holding it and I think plans to eventually move into it. We’ll see.
ParticipantI have a 2000sf (4/3) house with a big backyard (2-car carport, no garage) for $2200/month. Has new landscaping and was remodeled. Although they did a crappy job on the details it’s a nice 20 footer. Aka everything looks nice from 20 feet away. Hahahaha.
I really would love to stay in Bay Park however the only time a house comes up is if someone dies (sad but there is a lot of truth to it).
ParticipantThanks for your advice! Fortunately I am able to be very patient. I rent a great house in Bay Park and am in no hurry to buy a house. But I will continue to make undermarket offers (on the order of 10% or even more) and hope eventually someone bites. We shall see!!! 🙂
Your points are well taken. From my point of view it’s above market…but it closed so that makes it “market”!
May 2, 2007 at 3:04 PM in reply to: question about building new – is there also a land bubble? #51639ParticipantBeing a developer I can answer this by saying, “It depends”. Land is worth this:
Total Project Revenue – Total Project Costs – Developer Profit (Typically 10%) = Land Value
It’s very simple. We as developers back into the value of the land. Today, as the housing market has slumped, holding all else equal, the land value goes down.
Pure and simple. My comment “It Depends” is based on the fact that while residential has slumped my industry, retail, has not. But it’s coming…we are eventually going to get slammed too. Them I am moving to China to develop.
ParticipantStill they were expecting 2% and everyone is hailing this as it beat expectations which, really, it didn’t. Well it did but only because of one company.
Download the report overall and compare March 2006 to March 2007. There’s the real story.
Participant“They want to pretend that the market is fine. Just don’t let me succumb and buy. I hate renting.”
I am in the same place as you. I rent a house in Baypark but make a good income and have a sizable DP. I could go out and buy an $800k house and be okay but when I run the rent vs. buy calculator the result is so stunningly in favor of renting that I just keep telling myself hold on and you’ll be able to buy that much BETTER of a house for that much LESS.
If you want to run the numbers yourself go to:
ParticipantWell it all depends on if you NEEDED to sell or not. If you could have held out until late 2008 or 2009 you probably should of. But if other forces would have meant you could not have then selling now is better than in six months when we have real bloodbath on our hands.
ParticipantVery weird because I attending the UCLA Forecast today and they specifically stated that we are looking for a 2 year continuing decrease in home prices in San Diego (see my other post).
All in all the presentation was bearish overall nature. Not horribly but when I talked to the speakers afterwards and pressed them they came out being even more bearish in private then when in front of the whole audience.
I specifically asked the chief economist what the impact of a. negative person savings (2 years running); b. increasing personal debt; and c. the inability to use your home as a ATM and his response was “We just don’t know at this time but something will have to adjust to compensate.”
Go figure.
ParticipantIt’s all in the Land Value.
ParticipantI am still boggled by the savings rate. We, as Americans, on average, have been spending more than we make for 2+ years. Pathetic. And it can’t continue. I still believe we are on a path for a eceonomic disaster in this country.
Doesn’t bode well for me as I develop shopping centers. Oh well there is always China, India and Europe to build. 🙂
April 30, 2007 at 8:53 AM in reply to: Looks like even the business journals in SD have been bought off by builders. #51435ParticipantI will agree that it is “fake” news but the article is just reporting on the infrastructure being put in place. Doesn’t really say that home sales are going well or anything like that.
Just an observation.
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